The SunShot Initiative: Getting to Ubiquitous Solar

Transcription

1 The SunShot Initiative: Getting to Ubiquitous Solar Dr. Lidija Sekaric

2 Price SunShot Initiative SunShot Goal: 6 /kwh without subsidy A 75% cost reduction by /kwh SunShot Initiative Solar Coal Nuclear Gas 1

3 America Will Achieve its SunShot 2

4 Installed PV System Prices $6.20 $5.00 $4.10 $3.10 $1.60 $2.20 $1.30 $1.80 $1.10 SunShot SunShot SunShot

5 As Solar Module Costs Decline, Annual Installations Rise 4

6 Capacity & Economic Impact At the end of 2015 Enough to power 27 GW MAJOR PROGRESS 4,000,000 Solar capacity has grown 23-fold since average American homes Solar accounted for 34% of all new electrical generation capacity installed in ,000 solar businesses in the U.S. $20 billion: Value of the U.S. solar market in % Solar systems costs are down 53% Since

7 Photovoltaics R&D 6

8 Paths to Achieving the SunShot Goal (6 /kwh) Analysis assumes cost of non-module components reduced to 65% of 2014 values 7

9 Opportunities for Module Innovation Source of Figure: NREL 8

10 Physics of Reliability: Evaluating Design Insights for Component Technologies in Solar (PREDICTS) 9

11 Systems Integration DISPATCHABILITY GRID PERFORMANCE AND RELIABILITY POWER ELECTRONICS COMMUNICATIONS 10

12 Today s Power System: Two-Way Power Flow 11

13 Dispatchability Solution Set SUPPLY SHIFTING ADDITIONAL LOAD LOAD SHIFTING FORECASTING 12

14 SHINES 13

15 Power Electronics 14

16 Balance of Systems (Soft Costs) 15

17 Balance of Systems (Soft Costs) 16

18 Transitioning from Ad Hoc to Standard Solutions 17

19 Rooftop Solar Challenge Team Locations 18

20 # of Workers Solution: Instructor Training to Enable Workforce Growth The Solar Instructor Training Network, designed to respond to the solar industry s rapid employment growth has helped to train over 30,000 installers, over a quarter of the installation workforce U.S. Solar Workforce Growth [PER CENT AGE] of installers in 14 received training 0 Other* Sales and Distrobution Installation Project Development Manufacturing Before 2010, TSF does not provide categories for solar jobs 19

21 Solar Training and Education for Professionals (STEP) 20

22 DATA: The Orange Button Project 21

23 Opportunities Beyond the Residential Rooftop Community Solar Group Purchasing Financial (Invest or Donate) Shared Solar Offsite Onsite (Multi-Unit Buildings) 22

24 23

25 kw Next Day Solar Total PV Capacity Deployed : 4,342 kw Number of AHJs: 11 (Antioch, Berkeley, Clovis, Livermore, San Francisco, Stockton) Installers: Solar City Utilities: PG&E Solution integration with the City of Livermore. Fresno and Clovis are next. Hosting workshops, in Feb and March for AHJs to implement the integration with Accela s Civic platform and PG&E s interconnection database through Qado Energy s Grid Unity platform Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 ALAMEDA COUNTY ANTIOCH ATASCADERO BERKELEY CLOVIS FRESNO LIVERMORE MADERA COUNTY RICHMOND SAN FRANCISCO STOCKTON 24

26 kw Connecticut Permit to Plugin Challenge Total PV Capacity Deployed : 2,829 kw Number of AHJs: 48 Partner Installers: 8 (All Green IT, Direct Energy Solar, JD Solar, Posigen CT LLC, Ross Solar Group, Sky View Solar,Sunlight Solar Energy, Trinity Solar) Utilities: Eversource Energy, United Illuminating CPR partnership to integrate Powerclerk with AHJs Yale University partnership to finalize Municipal Solar-Friendly Score Card rating for Connecticut Partnership with United Illuminating to pilot high DER on circuit level (<15% of circuit loading) Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Feb-16 Jan-16 Mar-16 Wolcott Windsor Wethersfield Westport Weston Waterford Waterbury Vernon Tolland Stonington Southington Southbury South Windsor Rocky Hill Redding Plainville Oxford Norwalk North Stonington 25

27 kw eaudit & epermit Total PV Capacity Deployed : 3,036 kw Number of AHJs: 102 (CA, OR, CT, MA) Installers: Sunrun Utilities: PG&E, SEC, Portland General Electric, National Grid, Riverside, Silicon Valley Power, United Illuminating Integrating Clean Power Research s PowerClerk Permit and Interconnect with Sunrun s LightMile and epermit and einterconnect Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Jan-16 Feb-16 Mar-16 OR-County Washington OR-COUNTY MARION COUNTY OR-CITY TIGARD OR-City Portland OR-CITY HILLSBORO OR-CITY HAPPY VALLEY OR-CITY BEAVERTON MA-TOWN SPENCER MA-TOWN NORTHBRIDGE MA-TOWN MATTAPOISETT MA-TOWN BLACKSTONE MA-TOWN BARRE MA-CITY OF SOUTHBRIDGE CT-Milford City Portland CA-County Ventura East CA-County Tulare CA-County SLO CA-County Santa Clara CA-County Nevada

28 SunShot Incubator Program The Incubator program provides early-stage assistance to help startup companies cross technological barriers to commercialization. For every $1 of federal support, $22 in private sector investment follows = startup companies have received a total of 121 awards to participate in the SunShot Incubator program since it began in

29 A Pathway Toward the 2020 SunShot Goal Benchmark 100 MW Utility Systems With 1,480 kwh/kw First Year Performance. No ITC but Five Year MACRS is Included. 28

30 Cost Reductions Needed to Reach 3 /kwh* *Benchmarked from a 100 MW PV utility system with 1,480 kwh/kw first-year performance. Assumes no ITC, but five-year MACRS is included. 29

31 PV Capacity (GW) PV capacity and Storage Costs PV capacity can be strongly influenced by low cost storage. SunShot Low Batt Cost SunShot High Batt Cost SunShot Mid Batt Cost $0.50/W Low Batt Cost

32 Key Findings 31

33 Policy Evolution 32

34 Finance Evolution 33

35 Environmental and Health Benefits of Achieving SunShot Quantifying the externalities of fossil fuels would reduce solar costs by 3.5 cents per kilowatt hour.

36 Thank you! Lidija Sekaric