Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts
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1 Sixth & Electric Power Plan Draft Wholesale Power Price Forecasts Maury Galbraith Generating Resource Advisory Committee Meeting Portland, OR December 18, 28 Outline 1. Overall Perspective: Major AURORA Updates 2. Updated AURORA zone configuration 3. Updated Fuel Price Forecasts 4. Updated load-resource balance by zones\ regions Energy Capacity 5. Impact of updates on wholesale power market price forecast 2 1
2 Major AURORA Updates 1. Reduction in the number of load-resource zones used to model the Western Interconnect 2. Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones 3. Updated demand forecasts for each of the load-resource zones 4. Updated fuel price forecasts for each of the zones 5. Updated hydro condition modeling for the zones 6. Updated inventory of existing generating resources in each of the zones 7. Updated estimates of future Regional Portfolio Standard resource development by zone 8. Updated inventory of candidate resources for future development by zone 9. Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion turbines 1. Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts 3 AURORA Zone Configuration Removed North and South Split of PNW 4 2
3 AURORA Zone Configuration Removed North and South Split of PNW Before After 5 Higher Natural Gas Prices Medium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones $/MMBTu Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-2 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 Jan-27 Jan-28 Jan-29 Jan-3 Draft 6th Plan - PNW Westside Draft 6th Plan - PNW Eastside Interim Forecast - PNW Westside Interim Forecast - PNW Eastside 6 3
4 Higher Coal Prices Medium Long-term Trend Forecasts for PNW Zones $/MMBTu Draft 6th Plan - PNW Westside Draft 6th Plan - PNW Eastside Interim Forecast - PNW Westside Interim Forecast - PNW Eastside. Jan-8 Jan-9 Jan-1 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-2 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Jan-26 Jan-27 Jan-28 Jan-29 Jan-3 7 Comparison of Annual Average Energy Draft 6 th Plan vs. Interim Price Forecast 16, 14, 12, Annual Average (MWa) 1, 8, 6, WECC Draft 6th Plan WECC Interim Price Forecast PNW Draft 6th Plan PNW Interim Price Forecast 4, 2,
5 Change in Annual Average Energy by Zone 6 th Plan Forecast minus Interim Price Forecast 6, Change in Annual Average MW (MWa) 4, 2, -2, -4, 27 PNW Eastside California North California South British Columbia Idaho South Montana East Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada North Alberta Baja California North Nevada South PNW Westside -6, 9 Change in PNW Annual Average Energy 6 th Plan Forecast minus Interim Price Forecast 4, 3,5 Change in Annual Average MW (MWa) 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, PNW Eastside Idaho South Montana East 5 PNW Westside
6 WECC Load-Resource Balance Energy Draft 6 th Plan/ Existing and Incremental RPS Resources Only 16, 14, 12, Annual Average Energy (MWa) 1, 8, 6, Annual Average Demand Resource Capability 4, 2, Economic Dispatch Annual Average Energy (MWa) WECC Resource Expansion Energy Economic Dispatch 45, 4, 35, 3, 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, NR 41 MW IGCC CSS NR 425 MW IGCC NR 4 MW CLST NR 2x8 MW GT NR 2x47 MW GT NR 61 MW CC NR 1 MW CL 4 Wind NR 1 MW CL 5 Wind NR 1 MW Cl 6 Wind
7 PNW Load-Resource Balance Energy Draft 6 th Plan/ Existing and Incremental RPS Resources Only 35, 3, Annual Average Energy (MWa) 25, 2, 15, 1, 5, Annual Average Demand Resource Capability Economic Dispatch PNW Resource Expansion Energy Economic Dispatch 7, 6, NR 2x8 MW GT NR 61 MW CC Annual Average Energy (MW) 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, NR 41 MW IGCC CSS NR 1 MW CL 5 Wind NR 1 MW Cl 6 Wind
8 Energy Summary Increased load forecasts for WECC and PNW Shift in forecasts at the zone level CA forecast is down PNW forecast is up Preliminary Resource Need Energy WECC: resource gap begins to develop in 214 based on economic dispatch of existing and RPS resources PNW: resource gap begins to develop in 22 based on economic dispatch of existing and RPS resources Economic dispatch depends on fundamental inputs (i.e., fuel prices, new resource costs, etc.) 15 Comparison of Annual Peak Demand Draft 6 th Plan vs. Interim Price Forecast 275, 25, 225, 2, Annual Peak (MW) 175, 15, 125, 1, WECC Draft 6th Plan WECC Interim Price Forecast PNW Draft 6th Plan 75, 5, 25, PNW Interim Price Forecast
9 Change in Peak Demand by Zone 6 th Plan Forecast minus Interim Price Forecast 1, Change in Annual Peak (MW) 5, -5, -1, -15, 27 PNW Eastside California North California South British Columbia Idaho South Montana East Wyoming Colorado New Mexico Arizona Utah Nevada North Alberta Baja California North Nevada South PNW Westside -2, 17 Change in PNW Peak Demand 6 th Plan Forecast minus Interim Price Forecast 4, 3, PNW Eastside Change in Annual Peak (MW) 2, 1, -1, 27 Idaho South Montana East -2, PNW Westside -3, 18 9
10 Comparison of Monthly PNW Peak - 21 Draft 6 th Plan vs. Interim Price Forecast 35, 3, 25, Monthly Peak (MW) 2, 15, Draft 6th Plan - 21 Interim Price Forecast , 5, Month of Year 19 Change in PNW Monthly Peak th Plan Forecast minus Interim Price Forecast 4,5 4, 3,5 3, Monthly Peak (MW) 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 PNW Month of Year 2 1
11 WECC Load-Resource Balance Capacity Draft 6 th Plan 3, 275, 25, 225, 2, Annual Peak (MW) 175, 15, 125, Annual Peak Demand 1, 75, 5, 25, Peak Demand + Reserve Margin Total Capacity Firm Capacity PNW Load-Resource Balance Capacity Draft 6 th Plan 6, 55, 5, 45, 4, Annual Peak (MW) 35, 3, 25, Annual Peak Demand 2, Annual Peak + Reserve Margin 15, 1, 5, Total Capacity Firm Capacity
12 Capacity Summary Reduced peak load forecast for WECC Increased peak load forecast for PNW Higher summer peak Still winter peaking Shift in forecasts at the zone level CA forecast is down Preliminary Resource Need Capacity WECC: resource gap begins to develop in 211 based on planning reserve margin and sustained peaking capacity PNW: resource gap begins to develop in 212 based on planning reserve margin and sustained peaking capacity 23 Impact of AURORA Updates on Mid-C Wholesale Power Price Forecast 8 Mid-C Power Prices (26$/MWh) Interim Price Forecast Updated Zone Configuration Updated Demand Updated Demand Hourly Shapes Updated Fuel Prices - Medium
13 Next Steps More AURORA Updates 1. Reduction in the number of load-resource zones used to model the Western Interconnect 2. Updated transmission links between the modeled load-resource zones 3. Updated demand forecasts for each of the load-resource zones 4. Updated fuel price forecasts for each of the zones 5. Updated hydro condition modeling for the zones 6. Updated inventory of existing generating resources in each of the zones 7. Updated estimates of future Regional Portfolio Standard resource development by zone 8. Updated inventory of candidate resources for future development by zone 9. Improved dispatch parameter for combined cycle combustion turbines 1. Updated carbon dioxide price forecasts 25 13
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