CAISO Participating Intermittent Resource Program for Wind Generation

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1 CAISO Participating Intermittent Resource Program for Wind Generation Jim Blatchford CAISO Account Manager

2 Agenda CAISO Market Concepts Wind Availability in California How State Supports Intermittent Resources Challenges How CAISO Supports Intermittent Resources and the RPS PIRP Mechanics

3 Key California ISO Roles California Independent Market Operations for Ancillary Services, Congestion, and Real-time pricing Scheduling of Power Transfers Congestion Management Grid Planning Real-Time Dispatch Other control area operator duties Financial Settlements Outage scheduling & coordination - Trans. & Generation Reliability Coordination

4 California ISO Vision Preferred provider of superior electrical transmission services. Mission For the benefit of our customers in California and the West, we: Plan and operate a safe a reliable electric system Provide open and non-discriminatory electric transmission services Facilitate appropriate investment in electric transmission and generation infrastructure We achieve this: Through efficient wholesale electric markets With a responsive organization that fosters innovation, collaboration and transparency At a reasonable cost

5 California s Wind Contribution USA Capacity Over 4700 MWs CA Capacity now over 2300 MWs Source:

6 Main Wind Generation Regions in California Solano County 5 GW hrs Altamont Pass 953 GW hrs Tehachapi Mount./ Mojave Desert 1578 GW hrs Pacheco Pass 16.9 GW hrs San Gorgonio Pass 902 GW hrs 2002 Production in GW hrs

7 2002 Monthly Wind Generation Energy Production Gig aw att H o u rs Day MW-Hrs Night MW-Hrs Jan-02 Feb-02 Mar-02 Apr-02 May-02 Jun-02 Jul-02 Aug-02 Sep-02 Oct-02 Nov-02 Dec-02 Month

8 IOUs must increase renewables portion of energy mix each year by at least 1% of total retail sales Renewables portion must reach 20% by 2017, an increase of 3000 MWs RPS obligation waived if/when PGC funds run out California Independent California Renewable Portfolio Standard SB 1078 passed in December 2002

9 California Renewable Portfolio Standard Renewables chosen from competitive bids Compared on least-cost and best-fit basis Total costs to be considered (including the indirect costs of transmission, integration and operating expenses) Winning bidders costs covered by: IOU contract, up to market price benchmark Public Goods Charge (PGC) funds, for abovebenchmark costs

10 Markets for Wind Energy Major Challenge is how to handle Imbalance Energy Costs? Energy Production must be scheduled in forward markets to get price certainty & schedule against Load. Actual Energy Production will always deviate from schedule. Net Deviation (Scheduled Actual) can be a high cost for the Scheduling Coordinator and a major penalty for Wind Resources

11 Operational Challenges Intermittent Resources (Wind Generation) Energy Production is unpredictable day ahead, hour ahead, and from minute to minute Increase the amount of Regulation Services CAISO procures from other Generators which increases costs Can cause additional transmission line overloads during some periods of heavy power flows Generation is Must Take and is nondispatchable 60.0 Hz Area Load California Independent Generation CAISO Real time Operations Balance total area Load and Generation on a continuous basis. Maintain frequency at 60 Hertz. Monitor transmission lines for overloads and correct overloads. Forecast energy needs in the next 10 minutes, 20 minutes, etc. and send dispatch notices to generators

12 CAISO Wind Gen. Project Objectives Support the State s goal of increasing the amount of new Wind Generation installed in California Forecast wind energy production far enough in advance so we do not need to start other fossil units No Surprises - Predict the amount of Wind Generation that is going to show-up in Real Time Find a successful way to handle imbalance energy costs for deviation from schedule without shifting costs to others Lower financial risks for operators and wind generators

13 The Process Intermittent Resource Working Group formed in Summer 2001 Representatives from the Governor s Office, CAISO, California Wind Energy Association, the CEC, IEP, CERS and wind energy marketers Consensus Proposal developed and submitted to CAISO Board for approval in October 2001 Proof of concept forecasting tool developed at the ISO Tariff Language developed & included in Amendment 42, filed at FERC at the end of January, 2002

14 Impact on Grid Operations Reliability Goal is to accurately forecast the amount of Wind Energy production for DA and HA Scheduling Changes in net-short calculation for Supplemental Energy Dispatch will include changes in Wind Energy no surprises! Impact on transmission loading can be assessed and mitigated as need by dispatch instructions to other generators If over-generation emergency exists, Wind Generators will turn their blades and reduce production.

15 Contracted with a Forecasting Service to develop highquality forecasts for DA and HA scheduling and a realtime forecast for ISO operations Developed an un-biased forecast for each hourly interval Developed a monthly settlement process to net deviations across all intervals and to be settled at the weighted-average price for the month. Created a Forecasting Work Group to monitor performance of the forecasting service,the intermittent resources and the impact on ISO system and costs. California Independent Participating Intermittent Resources Protocol (PIRP) Integration of Wind Energy into Real-Time Grid Operations

16 Integration of Wind Energy into Real-Time Grid Operations California Independent Participating Intermittent Resources Protocol (PIRP) Intermittent Resources sign all ISO agreements, install ISO telemetry, pay a forecasting fee and schedule consistent with a state-of-the-art forecast. Congestion charges will still apply to Intermittent Resources Each new wind generation area will provide meteorological and energy production data in realtime to create a forecasting model for that facility

17 California Independent CAISO Hour Ahead Forecast Tool Wind Gen, MW Forecast, MW 95% Range 95% Range Forecast for next hour 14:07 15:07 16:07 17:07 18:07 19:07 20:07 21:07 22:07 23:07 0:07 1:07 2:07 3:07 4:07 5:07 6:07 7:07 8:07 9:07 10:07 11:07 12:07 13:07 14:07 Time One Hour Ahead, MW

18 MAE, % California Independent Accuracy of Persistence & Weatherbased Wind Generation Forecasts (Qualitative Comparison) Persistence Model Meteorological Model Hours Ahead

19 Participating Intermittent Resources Protocol (PIRP) Aggregation of wind projects (must be at least 1 MW) Real-time weather and operational data Forecast and Hour-Ahead Scheduling Election to participate: opt-in/opt-out Market monitoring of Intermittent Resources California Independent

20 Data Flow for Wind Generation Scheduling Process Meteorological Data from National Weather Service Contracted Forecasting Service Wind Gen. Meteorological data from the site Data Process Gateway MW Output Data CAISO Forecast Information database Day Ahead / Hour Ahead Energy Forecast Day Ahead / Hour Ahead Energy Schedules Scheduling Coordinator (Energy Schedules) Outage Information SETTLEMENTS

21 Other Issues California Independent Will additional Regulation and Load Following services be needed as the amount of Wind Generation increases? Calculation of the Capacity value for wind and other renewables Improved Day-Ahead forecasting for renewables such as wind. Contingency reserves (forced outages) Wind s modularity may create a relatively positive value.

22 Conclusion Intermittent resources such as wind generation can be a valuable addition to the generation resources portfolio The value of wind generation is dependent on: Location Location Location pick a site with lots of wind many hours of the year production across peak hours has more valuable than night time product Forecast accuracy - The more accurate the energy product can be forecasted, the more it can displace fossil energy Integration costs minimized - and the more hours in advance the energy production can be forecasted, the more value it has minimize need for regulation and load following dispatches New market rules can encourage construction of new wind generation resources

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