2013 FORECAST ACCURACY BENCHMARKING SURVEY AND ENERGY
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1 2013 FORECAST ACCURACY BENCHMARKING SURVEY AND ENERGY Itron Forecasting Brown Bag June 4, 2013
2 Please Remember» Phones are Muted: In order to help this session run smoothly, your phones are muted.» Full Screen Mode: To make the presentation portion of the screen larger, press the expand button on the toolbar. Press it again to return to regular window.» Feedback and Questions: If you want to give feedback to the presenter during the meeting or if you have a question, please type your question in the Q&A box. We will address it as soon as we can.
3 2013 Brown Bag Seminars» Solar and Wind Generation Modeling and Forecasting - March 5» 2013 Forecast Accuracy Benchmarking Survey and Energy Trends - June 4» Update on Weather Normalization Trends and Issues - Sept 17» 2014 Outlook - Dec 10, 2013 All at noon, Pacific Time All are recorded. PDF and recording available after the session.
4 U.S. Electricity Sales (TWh) Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales
5 Annual Electricity Sales (TWh) Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales
6 U.S. Natural Gas Sales (BCF) Computed as 12 month moving sum of class sales
7 U.S. Natural Gas Sales (BCF) Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales
8 Real Electricity Prices ($2005/MWh) Computed as 12 month moving average of monthly $/MWh by class
9 Real Gas Prices ($2005/MCF) Computed as 12 month moving average of average $/MCF
10 Real Energy Prices ($2005) Electric and gas are 12 month moving averages, Oil is actual monthly price
11 Living in a 1% World Historical Growth was Linear through Annual Gain = 62 TWh/year Survey Says: Annual Gain = 38TWh/year About 1% Growth
12 2012 The Warmest Year on Record
13 2012 Ranking by State
14 2011 Ranking by State
15 2012 Evolution of the year 2012 was warm because of a warm winter/spring (which lowers annual load), not because of a hot summer.
16 2013 Forecasting Benchmark Survey» In April 2013, Itron surveyed energy forecasters in North America. The goal was to get a benchmark for growth and forecast accuracy» A total of 74 (77 in 2012) utilities responded: Midwest 23 (18) Northeast 7 (10) South 25 (25) West 10 (15) Canada 9 (9) * 54 Respondents were reported at the EFG Meeting in April» Respondents represent about 2,300 (2,000) Billion kwh or 52% of the electricity use in Canada and the United States.
17 U.S. REGIONS Note: Weights vary depending on actual number of respondents for each question
18 Customer Growth from 2011 to 2012 (%) What was your average customer growth from 2011 to 2012 for the Residential and Commercial classes? Residential and Commercial growth near 1% US Non-Farm Employment Growth % %
19 Weather Normalized Annual Sales Growth (%) for Survey Result 2012 Growth Rates Growth driven by South and West regions Flat or slow Residential and Commercial sector growth 2012 Survey Result Sales Growth (%) for Growth Rates
20 Were 2011 Sales (Adjusted for Weather) Above or Below the Forecasted Level? 2013 Survey Result MAPEs for Survey Result MAPEs for 2011 * Results are weighted based on company annual energy
21 Residential Forecast Error Distribution 76% of utilities forecasts were within 2% of actual values. Forecast corrects for prior year s over forecast Compared with 2012 Actuals 2012 Survey Result Negative values mean that the forecast is lower than the normalized actual value (i.e. under-forecast ) Compared with 2011 Actuals
22 Commercial Forecast Error Distribution 59% of utilities forecasts were within 2% of actual values. Class appears to be getting more difficult to forecast Compared with 2012 Actuals 2012 Survey Result Negative values mean that the forecast is lower than the normalized actual value (i.e. under-forecast ) Compared with 2011 Actuals
23 Commercial and Industrial Sales Commercial Sales Correlation Real GDP Employment
24 Industrial Forecast Error Distribution 42% of utilities forecasts were within 2% of actual values. Compared with 2012 Actuals 2012 Survey Result Negative values mean that the forecast is lower than the normalized actual value (i.e. under-forecast ) Compared with 2011 Actuals
25 Peak Forecast Error Distribution 45% of utilities forecasts were within 2% of actual values. Forecast corrects for prior year s over forecast Compared with 2012 Actuals 2012 Survey Result Negative values mean that the forecast is lower than the normalized actual value (i.e. under-forecast ) Compared with 2011 Actuals
26 Total System Forecast Error Distribution Compared with 2012 Actuals 76% of utilities forecasts were within 2% of actual values. Negative values mean that the forecast is lower than the normalized actual value (i.e. under-forecast )
27 Sales Growth Forecast One Year Ahead 2013 Survey Result 2013 Growth (%) relative to Forecast 2012 Actual 2013 Forecast 2013 Survey Result Weather Normalized Sales Growth (%) for Survey Result 2012 Growth (%) relative to 2011
28 Sales Growth Forecast Next Ten Years 2013 Survey Result Growth (%) Consistent 1% growth range 2012 Survey Result Growth (%)
29 Electric Vehicles/Photovoltaic Systems Are you explicitly including electric vehicles or photovoltaic systems in your forecast? Electric Vehicle Inclusion Electric Vehicle Inclusion Photovoltaic Inclusion Photovoltaic Inclusion
30 Accounting for DSM At least 71% of respondents are attempting to deal with DSM impacts in their model.
31 Years Used in Normal Weather Calculation Between 2006 and 2013 there is a general shift to use fewer years when calculating normal weather o 2006 Survey included 172 Respondents o 2013 Survey included 73 Respondents
32 AMI Deployment 51% of respondents will have AMI data in the near future. How will AMI data impact the forecasting process?
33 Questions? Press *6 to ask a question Remaining 2013 HANDS-ON WORKSHOPS» Fundamentals of Short-term and Hourly Forecasting September San Diego, CA» Fundamentals of Sales and Demand Forecasting October Boston, MA» Forecasting 101 October San Diego, CA OTHER FORECASTING MEETINGS» Itron Utility Week October 7-8 Orlando, FL» Australian Forecasting User Meeting - Date TBD - Sydney, Australia For more information and registration: Contact us at: , or forecasting@itron.com
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