Custom Forecasting: More Content Than Ever Before. Steve Root, CCM Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, Strategic Initiatives April, 2018

Transcription

1 Custom Forecasting: More Content Than Ever Before Steve Root, CCM Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, Strategic Initiatives April, 2018

2 ABOUT ACCUWEATHER We are the most accurate and most trusted weather brand worldwide #1 Accuracy globally for both 2015 and 2016 *ForecastWatch Provides Protection 10s of 1000s of Lives and 10s of Billions Dollars Serves 245 of Fortune 500 companies as well as thousands of businesses worldwide Delivers customized enterprise solutions to all industries

3 MORE DATA + MORE MODELS + EXPERTISE UNDER ONE ROOF , AccuWeather, Inc

4 Privately-held company founded by Dr. Joel N. Myers Decades of Innovation Weather forensics 1 st introduced AccuWeather weather analysis computer 1 st weather website launched & software for energy companies SkyMotion TM - Localized, individual weather forecasts for mobile, PC s, laptops, tablets introduced, US #6,590,529 AccuWeather introduces world s 1 st 4-hour predictive radar. Personalized, mobile weather apps and forecasts to individuals MinuteCast TM minute-byminute forecasts introduced & world s 1 st 45- day forecasts 10B+ requests per day served. Introduces first 5-day specific daily forecast First TV station served , AccuWeather, Inc First to introduce 7-day local forecasts for television Lightning Data & Graphics Introduced 1 st to offer GOES-8 satellite images & mosaics Mobile, personalized & geospecific hazard warnings introduced RealFeel TM multi-factor temperature forecast, US #7,251,579 Interactive apps, for weather, queries, social media, and displaying of content

5 A Company Overview The world s leading mobile and enterprise weather company 400+ employees, including over 60 IT, mobile, and digital media professionals. Over 50+ years of global leadership in weather and LBS forecasts. State College, PA New York, NY Wichita, KS Edmond, OK Montreal, Canada , AccuWeather, Inc

6 There are 10,000+ industrial-grade, government operated, government maintained, and government calibrated surface weather stations worldwide these primary observations all are publicly available. Hundreds of thousands of secondary observations are available from co-operative networks, remote sensors (surface, aloft, satellite, model data, etc.), and other international sources representing various quality levels and temporal resolution , AccuWeather, Inc

7 Of these 10,000+ industrial-grade, government operated, government maintained, and government calibrated surface weather stations worldwide these stations typically collect a dozen or so primary, mandatory observations (parameters) This mandatory list of metrics is expanded To more than 60 hourly metrics, and more than 350 daily metrics , AccuWeather, Inc

8 For the past 35-years, AccuWeather was designed, enhanced and perfected a system to review, test, validate and correct all observations in near-real time. This QA/QC system yields perfectly clean and complete data, at an hourly resolution. Raw NOAA Data Silo Preliminary Data Selection Proprietary QA/QC Routines Preliminary Data Storage every hour of every day, this final data storage increases by one hour , AccuWeather, Inc

9 In the past 35-years, AccuWeather has learned: Inconsistent Data Results in poor correlations Inaccurate assessments Poor or Missing QC / QA on Data Inaccurate predictions A poor user experience Shallow Data Depth Low product acceptance , AccuWeather, Inc

10 Held in preliminary storage, key hourly and daily metrics for all mandatory observations for all locations reside , AccuWeather, Inc Preliminary Data Mandatory Observations Temperature Moisture (dew point temperature) Wind speed & direction Cloud type and heights Precipitation (if any) Weather state Proprietary QA/QC Routines Majority logic on hourly metrics Majority logic on daily metrics Various checks on reasonableness Comparison to extreme (95 th percentiles) Comparison to departure from normal (DFN) In some cases, manual review Industry-Leading Variance- Capturing Metrics Dozens of metrics for every observation type, including: Dozens of Moisture metrics Full suite soil metrics Full suite of irradiance metrics Hourly normalized metrics Daily normalized metrics Hundreds of transformations And more No. America data depth: 60+ years International data depth: 30+ years

11 Our success to date is in providing actionable solutions, applying our proprietary data and expertise to Weather-Triggered business continuity: Labor scheduling Consumer demand Inventory replenishment , AccuWeather, Inc

12 Our success to date is in providing actionable solutions, applying our proprietary data and expertise to Weather-Triggered event opportunity: Plant germination (date of 1 st 57 F soil temp for 3-days) Golf Playable Hour and Day (critical temperature, humidity, lack of rain and wind) Car Wash Hour and Day (critical temperature, minutes of sunshine, lack of rain for 3-days; and/or after heavy snow in salted region , AccuWeather, Inc

13 Specifically provides custom database solutions for energy load demand forecasting Solar and wind energy production Power load demand Gas load demand , AccuWeather, Inc

14 Value-Added Hourly Weather Metrics available: TEMPERATURE F NORMAL TEMPERATURE F HEAT INDEX F WIND CHILL F "FEELS-LIKE" TEMPERATURE F WIND CHILL ENERGY, W/M2 HIGHEST TEMPERATURE F LOWEST TEMPERATURE F DEW POINT TEMPERATURE F NORMAL DEW POINT TEMPERATURE F RELATIVE HUMIDITY (%) NORMAL RELATIVE HUMIDITY (%) WET BULB TEMPERATURE F NORMAL WET BULB TEMPERATURE F WIND DIRECTION (Degrees, True) WIND SPEED (M.P.H.) SPEED GUST (if any, M.P.H.) NORMAL WIND DIRECTION (Degrees, True) NORMAL WIND SPEED (M.P.H.) CLOUD COVER (Percent; %) NORMAL CLOUD COVER (Percent; %) VISIBILITY (Miles) NORMAL VISIBILITY (Miles) PROBABILITY of PRECIPITATION NORMAL PROBABILITY of PRECIPITATION WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches) NORMAL WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches) SNOWFALL, FINAL (Inches) NORMAL SNOWFALL (calculated; Inches) PRESSURE (Inches) PRESSURE (Millibars) NORMAL PRESSURE (Inches) NORMAL PRESSURE (Millibars) ENTHALPY (Btu/lb) NORMAL ENTHALPY (Btu/lb) Short (.12M) Evapotranspiration (in) Tall (.5M) Evapotranspiration (in) Normal Short (.12M) Evapotranspiration (in) Normal Tall (.5M) Evapotranspiration (in) 2-DIGIT NUMERIC WEATHER CODE 2-4 ALPHA NUMERIC WEATHER CODE WEATHER TEXT 2-DIGIT NUMERIC WEATHER CODE TO TEXT , AccuWeather, Inc

15 Value-Added Hourly Weather Metrics available: SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Beam Horizontal, W/M2) SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Diffuse, W/M2) SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global Horizontal, W/M2) SOLAR IRRADIANCE POSSIBLE (Beam Horizontal, on a Clear Hour, W/M2) SOLAR IRRADIANCE POSSIBLE (Global Horizontal, on a Clear Hour, W/M2) SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M2) SOLAR IRRADIANCE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Direct) SOLAR IRRADIANCE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Global) MINUTES of SUNSHINE (Calculated) NORMAL MINUTES of SUNSHINE (Calculated) MINUTES of SUNSHINE (Total Possible) SUN ANGLE, ABOVE HORIZON SUN ANGLE, from ZENITH SUNSHINE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Calculated / Total Possible) NORMAL SUNSHINE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Calculated / Total Possible) , AccuWeather, Inc

16 Value-Added Daily Weather Metrics: HIGHEST TEMPERATURE F 30-YR 5th PERCENTILE of HIGHEST TEMPERATURE, F 30-YR 30th PERCENTILE of HIGHEST TEMPERATURE, F 30-YR 50th PERCENTILE of HIGHEST TEMPERATURE, F 30-YR 70th PERCENTILE of HIGHEST TEMPERATURE, F 30-YR 95th PERCENTILE of HIGHEST TEMPERATURE, F LOWEST TEMPERATURE F 30-YR 5th PERCENTILE of LOWEST TEMPERATURE, F 30-YR 30th PERCENTILE of LOWEST TEMPERATURE, F 30-YR 50th PERCENTILE of LOWEST TEMPERATURE, F 30-YR 70th PERCENTILE of LOWEST TEMPERATURE, F 30-YR 95th PERCENTILE of LOWEST TEMPERATURE, F AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) F NORMAL HIGHEST TEMPERATURE F NORMAL LOWEST TEMPERATURE F NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) F DEPART. from NORMAL HIGHEST TEMPERATURE F DEPART. from NORMAL LOWEST TEMPERATURE F DEPART. from NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F DEPART. from NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) F NOAA/EC NORMAL HIGHEST TEMPERATURE F (if available) NOAA/EC NORMAL LOWEST TEMPERATURE F (if available) NOAA/EC NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY TEMPERATURE F (if available) WARMEST HEAT INDEX F COLDEST HEAT INDEX F AVERAGE HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F AVERAGE HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) F WARMEST WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE F COLDEST WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE F AVERAGE DAILY WIND CHILL TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F MAXIMUM WIND CHILL ENERGY (All Hours, W/M 2 ) MINIMUM WIND CHILL ENERGY (All Hours, W/M 2 ) DAILY AVERAGE WIND CHILL ENERGY (All Hours, W/M 2 ) MAXIMUM "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURE F MINIMUM "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURE F DAILY AVERAGE "FEELS LIKE" TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F EXTREME HIGHEST TEMP., WARM, F YEAR of EXTREME HIGHEST TEMP., WARM EXTREME HIGHEST TEMP., COLD, F YEAR of EXTREME HIGHEST TEMP., COLD EXTREME LOWEST TEMP., WARM, F YEAR of EXTREME LOWEST TEMP., WARM EXTREME LOWEST TEMP., COLD, F YEAR of EXTREME LOWEST TEMP., COLD , AccuWeather, Inc

17 Value-Added Daily Weather Metrics: HEATING DEGREE DAYS (HDDs, HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65 F) NORMAL HDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65 F) DEPART. from NORMAL HDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65 F) HEATING DEGREE DAYS (HDDs, All Hours, Base of 65 F) NORMAL HDDs (All Hours, Base of 65 F) DEPART. from NORMAL HDDs (All Hours, Base of 65 F) NOAA/EC NORMAL HDDs (Base of 65 F, if available) COOLING DEGREE DAYS (CDDs, HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65 F) NORMAL CDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65 F) DEPART. from NORMAL CDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65 F) COOLING DEGREE DAYS (CDDs, All Hours, Base of 65 F) NORMAL CDDs (All Hours, Base of 65 F) DEPART. from NORMAL CDDs (All Hours, Base of 65 F) NOAA/EC NORMAL CDDs (Base of 65 F, if available) EFFECTIVE DEGREE DAYS (EDDs, HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65 F) NORMAL EDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65 F) DEPART. from NORMAL EDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 65 F) EFFECTIVE DEGREE DAYS (EDDs, All Hours, Base of 65 F) NORMAL EDDs (All Hours, Base of 65 F) DEPART. from NORMAL EDDs (All Hours, Base of 65 F) HIGHEST SUSTAINED SPEED (M.P.H.) HIGHEST INTRA HOUR SUSTAINED SPEED (If Reported, M.P.H.) LOWEST SUSTAINED SPEED (M.P.H.) AVERAGE DAILY WIND SPEED (All Hours, M.P.H.) PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION (Degrees, True) NORMAL PREDOMINATE WIND DIRECTION (Degrees, True) NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY WIND SPEED (All Hours, M.P.H.) HIGHEST WIND GUST (M.P.H.) HIGHEST INTRA HOUR WIND GUST (If Reported, M.P.H.) AVERAGE DAILY CLOUD COVER (All Hours, Percent; %) NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY CLOUD COVER (All Hours, Percent; %) AVERAGE DAILY CLOUD CEILING (x 100-Feet) AVERAGE VISIBILITY (All Hours, Miles) NORMAL AVERAGE VISIBILITY (All Hours, Miles) LOWEST VISIBILITY (All Hours, Miles) LOWEST INTRA HOUR VISIBILITY (If Reported, All Hours, Miles) , AccuWeather, Inc

18 Value-Added Daily Weather Metrics: HIGHEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE F LOWEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE F AVERAGE DAILY DEW POINT TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F AVERAGE DAILY DEW POINT TEMPERATURE (HIGHEST / LOWEST) F NORMAL HIGHEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE F NORMAL LOWEST DEW POINT TEMPERATURE F NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY DEW POINT TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY (Percent; %) LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY (Percent; %) AVERAGE DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY (All Hours, Percent; %) NORMAL HIGHEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY (Percent; %) NORMAL LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY (Percent; %) NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY RELATIVE HUMIDITY (All Hours, Percent; %) HIGHEST WET BULB TEMPERATURE F LOWEST WET BULB TEMPERATURE F AVERAGE DAILY WET BULB TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F NORMAL HIGHEST WET BULB TEMPERATURE F NORMAL LOWEST WET BULB TEMPERATURE F NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY WET BULB TEMPERATURE (All Hours) F GROWING DEGREE DAYS (GDDs, HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 50 F) NORMAL GDDs (HIGHEST / LOWEST, Base of 50 F) GROWING DEGREE DAYS (GDDs, All Hours, Base of 50 F) NORMAL GDDs (All Hours, Base of 50 F) AVERAGE DAILY SOIL TEMPERATURE (Calculated, F) SOIL MOISTURE (NOAA / NCEP, Inches) PALMER DROUGHT INDEX (NOAA / NCEP) FREEZING DEGREE DAYS (FDDs, Highest / Lowest, Base of 32 F) NORMAL FDDs (Highest / Lowest, Base of 32 F) SNOW SEASON (Binary on Snowfall >=0.5", 1st Day to Last Day) , AccuWeather, Inc

19 Value-Added Daily Weather Metrics: OBSERVED TOTAL DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches) NORMAL TOTAL DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches) NOAA/EC NORMAL TOTAL DAILY WATER EQ. (Inches; if available) DEPART. from NORMAL TOTAL DAILY PRECIPITATION (Inches) PERCENT of NORMAL DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT EXTREME OBSERVED DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT (Inches) Year of Extreme DAILY WATER EQUIVALENT AVERAGE POPs on FORECAST DATA, or PERCENT (%) of DAY with PRECIPITATION CALENDAR DAY, TOTAL HOURS of PRECIPITATION SNOWFALL (FINAL ALL SOURCES; Inches) NORMAL SNOWFALL (Calculated; Total of All Hours; Inches) NOAA/EC NORMAL TOTAL DAILY SNOWFALL (Inches; if available) EXTREME DAILY SNOWFALL (Calculated; Inches) YEAR of EXTREME DAILY SNOWFALL (Calculated; Total of All Hours) SNOW on GROUND, USING ALL SOURCES (Inches) , AccuWeather, Inc MAXIMUM SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2) MINIMUM SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2) AVERAGE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2) TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2) TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Diffuse, W/M2) TOTAL SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2) MAXIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2) MINIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2) AVERAGE POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2) TOTAL POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Direct, W/M2) MAXIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2) MINIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2) AVERAGE POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2) TOTAL POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (Global, W/M2) MAXIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M 2 ) MINIMUM POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M 2 ) AVERAGE POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M 2 ) TOTAL POSSIBLE SOLAR IRRADIANCE (ET, W/M 2 ) SOLAR IRRADIANCE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Direct) SOLAR IRRADIANCE, PERCENT of POSSIBLE (Global) TOTAL MINUTES of SUNSHINE (Calculated) TOTAL MINUTES of SUNSHINE POSSIBLE (on Cloud-free Day) PERCENT of SUNSHINE (Calculated / Total Possible) MAXIMUM SOLAR ANGLE, ABOVE HORIZON SUNRISE (Local to Station, AM) SUNSET (Local to Station, PM) HIGHEST PRESSURE (Inches) LOWEST PRESSURE (Inches) AVERAGE DAILY PRESSURE (Inches) NORMAL AVERAGE DAILY PRESSURE (Inches) HIGHEST PRESSURE (Millibars, if reported) LOWEST PRESSURE (Millibars, if reported) AVERAGE DAILY PRESSURE (Millibars, if reported) NORMAL AVG DAILY PRESSURE (Millibars, if reported) Dispersion Index (Unlimited) 2-DIGIT PREDOMINATE WEATHER (All Hours) 2-4 LETTER CODE (All Hours) PREDOMINATE WEATHER TEXT (All Hours) 2-DIGIT PREDOMINATE WEATHER (9A - 9P) PREDOMINATE WEATHER TEXT (9A - 9P) 2-DIGIT PREDOMINATE WEATHER (8A - 10P) PREDOMINATE WEATHER TEXT (8A - 10P) Pan Evaporation (Inches) Normal Pan Evaporation (Inches) Short (.12M) Evapotranspiration (in) Normal Short (.12M) Evapotranspiration (in) Tall (.5M) Evapotranspiration (in) Normals Tall (.5M) Evapotranspiration (in)

20 Value-Added Daily Binary Weather Metrics: MAX-T, 10PM - 4AM, LT MIN-T, 10PM - 4AM, LT SNOW-1 BINARY, 08/01-07/31, 1ST DAY 0.50" SNOW-1 BINARY, 08/01-07/31, 1ST DAY 1.0" SNOW-1 BINARY, 08/01-07/31, 1ST DAY >2.0"+ SNOW-1 BINARY, 08/01-07/31, 1ST DAY >3.0"+ LSR SNOW BINARY, TERRAIN RESTRICTED DIST. MAX SNOW LSR (IN) TYPE OF LSR OBS; (M or E) LSR DIST (MI) BLIZZARD BINARY SPRING1 BINARY SPRING1 SEASON SPRING2 BINARY SPRING2 SEASON LSR RAIN BINARY, TERRAIN RESTRICTED DIST. MAX RAIN LSR (IN) TYPE OF LSR OBS; (M or E) LSR DIST (MI) FREEZE SEASON FREEZE BINARY (<=32 F) FLOOD1 BINARY FLOOD2 BINARY HAIL BINARY (100-Mile Limit) HAIL SIZE (IN) HAIL DIST (MI) HAIL BINARY-5-MILE RING MAX HAIL SIZE (IN) AVG HAIL SIZE (IN) MAX HAIL DIST (MI) HAIL COUNTS HAIL BINARY-10 MILE RING MAX HAIL SIZE (IN) AVG HAIL SIZE (IN) MAX HAIL DIST (MI) HAIL COUNTS HAIL BINARY-15-MILE RING MAX HAIL SIZE (IN) AVG HAIL SIZE (IN) MAX HAIL DIST (MI) HAIL COUNTS HAIL BINARY-20-MILE RING MAX HAIL SIZE (IN) AVG HAIL SIZE (IN) MAX HAIL DIST (MI) HAIL COUNTS , AccuWeather, Inc

21 Value-Added Daily Binary Weather Metrics: HAIL BINARY-25-MILE RING MAX HAIL SIZE (IN) AVG HAIL SIZE (IN) MAX HAIL DIST (MI) HAIL COUNTS TORNADO BINARY (100-Mile Limit) TORNADO DISTANCE (MI) TORNADO BINARY-5 MAX RATING of TORNADO (if known) DIST to MAX RATED TORNADO (MI) TORNADO COUNTS TORNADO BINARY-10 MAX RATING of TORNADO (if known) DIST to MAX RATED TORNADO (MI) TORNADO COUNTS TORNADO BINARY-15 MAX RATING of TORNADO (if known) DIST to MAX RATED TORNADO (MI) TORNADO COUNTS TORNADO BINARY-20 MAX RATING of TORNADO (if known) DIST to MAX RATED TORNADO (MI) TORNADO COUNTS TORNADO BINARY-25 MAX RATING of TORNADO (if known) DIST to MAX RATED TORNADO (MI) TORNADO COUNTS EXT WINDS BINARY (100-Mile Limit) SPEED of EXT WINDS (MPH) EXT WIND DIST (MI) EXT WINDS BINARY-5 MAX SPEED of EXT WINDS (MPH) AVG SPEED of EXT WIND (MPH) MAX EXT WINDS DIST (MI) EXT WINDS COUNTS EXT WINDS BINARY-10 MAX SPEED of EXT WINDS (MPH) AVG SPEED of EXT WIND (MPH) MAX EXT WINDS DIST (MI) EXT WINDS COUNTS EXT WINDS BINARY-15 MAX SPEED of EXT WINDS (MPH) AVG SPEED of EXT WIND (MPH) MAX EXT WINDS DIST (MI) EXT WINDS COUNTS , AccuWeather, Inc

22 Value-Added Daily Binary Weather Metrics: EXT WINDS BINARY-20 MAX SPEED of EXT WINDS (MPH) AVG SPEED of EXT WIND (MPH) MAX EXT WINDS DIST (MI) EXT WINDS COUNTS EXT WINDS BINARY-25 MAX SPEED of EXT WINDS (MPH) AVG SPEED of EXT WIND (MPH) MAX EXT WINDS DIST (MI) EXT WINDS COUNTS HURRICANE or TS BINARY HURR BINARY INTENSITY TROP1 BINARY TROP2 BINARY AVG HEAT INDEX T F, SUNR to SUNS AVG HEAT INDEX T F, SUNS to SUNR AVG HEAT INDEX T F, 10PM to 4AM LT AVG HEAT INDEX T F, CAL DAY POUT BINARY POUTW BINARY ICE BINARY (HISTORICAL) ICE AMOUNT (CODED; HISTORICAL) FIRST ICE ICE SEASON ICE AMOUNT SLEET BINARY SLEET AMOUNT NWS HEAT ADVISORY BINARY HEAT ADVISORY STRENGTH (CODED) NWS FLASH FLOOD WARNING BINARY NWS FLOOD WARN, or COASTAL FLOOD WARN SATELLITE DETECTED WILDFIRES FIRE DANGER RATING BUSINESS DISRUPTION INDEX EARTHQUAKE BINARY, on RS EQUAKE DIST (MI) HOURS VIS < MI HOURS VIS MI HOURS VIS MI MAX ENTHALPY (BTU/LB) MIN ENTHALPY (BTU/LB) AVG ENTHALPY (BTU/LB) TOT ENTHALPY (BTU/LB) NORMAL MAX ENTHALPY (BTU/LB) NORMAL MIN ENTHALPY (BTU/LB) NORMAL AVG ENTHALPY (BTU/LB) NORMAL TOT ENTHALPY (BTU/LB) CETI INDEX (T, WIND, R.H.; DAIRY OPS) , AccuWeather, Inc

23 Digital Forecast System begins with 160+ global forecast models, 12 terabytes of data on governmental supercomputers all over the world including our own models and proprietary commercial models under license proprietary data sets, featuring AI, combine multiple numerical models + real-time observations effective, efficient human-machine interfaces which enable skills from expert meteorologists, 24X7 state-of-the-art microscale downscaling of high-performing global and regional model data for accurate forecasts at 1-km , AccuWeather, Inc

24 optimal blends of the high-res ECMWF, U.S. GFS, CFSv2 as well as many others using stochastic programs and proprietary optimization deterministic and ensemble guidance applied, plus post-processed guidance (MOS) proprietary data inputs fine-tuned to remove bias unique inputs to downscale NWP to microscale (terrain effects, land use, etc.) detailed climatology (normalization) Digital Forecast System , AccuWeather, Inc

25 Hourly Weather Data Cadence XX:57 - XX:07 collection of weather observations; XX:57 - XX:15 QA/QC of weather observations; XX:08 - XX:14 collection / processing forecast data XX:14 - XX:22 client output files written via FTP, and all data sets available to XML queries XX:18 - XX:28 value-added data sets Primary data files Custom smoothing applies Majority logic files (WC and CC) , AccuWeather, Inc

26 Chaos, Instability, Uncertainty, Confidence, Risk , AccuWeather, Inc

27 No matter how many metrics are deployed or regardless of how sophisticated the model physics are sometimes model timing needs adjustment to properly match current conditions , AccuWeather, Inc

28 Each hour, every forecast is compared to just received observation and any forecast found to be drifting or out-of-range is automatically adjusted in real-time, according to: Existing FORECAST HR-1 HR-2 HR-3 HR-4 HR-5 HR-6 HR-7 HR-8 HR-9 HR-XXX OBS-1 ADJUSTMENTS????? , AccuWeather, Inc

29 Blending Existing Forecasts with Real-time Weather Observations: Compare current observation with existing forecast for same hour (rendered previous hour); No change applied if delta Temp <=2 F For delta Temp >2 F: Maintain directional trend (warmer if delta is warmer; colder if colder); Using weighted delta (~80%, ~65%, ~55%, etc.) to next forecast hour; Repeat through a maximum change of 8-hours, or Repeat until forecast delta returns to compliance (delta TEMP [original vs. corrected] <=2 F); All corrections capped at +/- 5 F on the original MAX and MIN , AccuWeather, Inc

30 CORR. COEFF. Existing FORECAST HR-1 HR-2 HR-3 HR-4 HR-5 HR-6 HR-7 HR-8 HR-9 HR-XXX , AccuWeather, Inc OBS-1 WEATHER STATION KXYZ HR-1 HR-2 HR-3 HR-4 HR-5 HR-6 HR-7 HR-8 HR-9 HR-10 HR-11 HR-12

31 CORR. COEFF. Existing FORECAST HR-1 HR-2 HR-3 HR-4 HR-5 HR-6 HR-7 HR-8 HR-9 HR-XXX OBS-1 Enhanced Model with WEATHER STATION KXYZ , AccuWeather, Inc Smoothing HR-1 HR-2 HR-3 HR-4 HR-5 HR-6 HR-7 HR-8 HR-9 HR-10 HR-11 HR-12

32 DEGREE F Blended Forecasts with Current Observations some examples: , AccuWeather, Inc TMP1 TMP2 OBS TMP CST HOUR Waco, KACT, Friday, April 6, 2018, Noon Forecast

33 DEGREE F Blended Forecasts with Current Observations some examples: , AccuWeather, Inc TMP1 TMP2 OBS TMP CST HOUR Port Isabel, KPIL, Friday, April 6, 2018

34 DEGREE F Blended Forecasts with Current Observations some examples: , AccuWeather, Inc TMP1 TMP2 OBS TMP CST HOUR San Marcos, KHYI, Saturday, April 7, 2018

35 DEGREE F Blended Forecasts with Current Observations some examples: , AccuWeather, Inc TMP1 TMP2 OBS TMP CST HOUR San Antonio, KSAT, Saturday, April 7, 2018

36 Degrees ( F) MAJORITY LOGIC WARM , AccuWeather, Inc

37 Degrees ( F) MAJORITY LOGIC WARM , AccuWeather, Inc

38 Degrees ( F) Only TEMP and DEW PT TEMP are recast all other metrics are retained (winds, clouds, irradiance, etc.) , AccuWeather, Inc

39 Degrees ( F) Only TEMP and DEW PT TEMP are recast all other metrics are retained (winds, clouds, irradiance, etc.) Majority Logic WC , AccuWeather, Inc

40 Degrees ( F) MAJORITY LOGIC COLD , AccuWeather, Inc

41 Degrees ( F) MAJORITY LOGIC COLD , AccuWeather, Inc

42 Degrees ( F) Only TEMP and DEW PT TEMP are recast all other metrics are retained (winds, clouds, irradiance, etc.) , AccuWeather, Inc

43 Degrees ( F) Only TEMP and DEW PT TEMP are recast all other metrics are retained (winds, clouds, irradiance, etc.) Majority Logic CC , AccuWeather, Inc

44 What to do in the absence of weather stations? Open Mountain Energy considering120 square miles north of Las Vegas, NV, as a new project; now long-term weather data available , AccuWeather, Inc

45 Install a Virtual Weather Station ~ VWS No history until hour of installation A year from now, will have 1-year of hourly data archived; All primary metrics updated hourly, as observed + predicted data, extending out 45+ days VWS s are proprietary to client application , AccuWeather, Inc

46 Analog mapping (S Root, 1950 to date; 1998, 2003, 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2017): , AccuWeather, Inc

47 Risk weighted (S Root, a 2 nd analog team input, EURO, NOAA CFS): , AccuWeather, Inc

48 Year-over-Year, final monthly comparison: , AccuWeather, Inc

49 Thank You! Steve Root, CCM Chief Analytics Officer, Sr. VP, Strategic Initiatives AccuWeather Enterprise Solutions AccuWeather. com , AccuWeather, Inc