Fundamentals of educational planning 27

Transcription

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2 Fundamentals f educatinal planning 27

3 Included in the series:* 1. What is Educatinal Planning? Philip H. Cmbs 2. The Relatin f Educatinal Plans t Ecnmic and Scial Planning R. Pignant. Educatinal Planning and Human Resurce Develpment F. Harbisn 4. Planning and the Educatinal Administratr CE. Beeby 5. The Scial Cntext f Educatinal Planning CA. Andersn 6. The Csting f Educatinal Plans J. Vaizey, J.D. Chesswas 7. The Prblems f Rural Educatin V.L. Griffiths 8. Educatinal Planning: The Adviser's Rle Adam Curie 9. Demgraphic Aspects f Educatinal Planning Ta Ngc Châu 10. The Analysis f Educatinal Csts and Expenditure J. Hallak 11. The Prfessinal Identity f the Educatinal Planner Adam Curie 12. The Cnditins fr Success in Educatinal Planning G.C. Rusce 1. Cst-benefit Analysis in Educatinal Planning Maureen Wdhall 14. Educatinal Planning and Unemplyed Yuth Archibald Callawav 15. The Plitics f Educatinal Planning in Develping Cuntries CD. Rwley 16. Planning Educatin fr a Plural Sciety Chai Hn-Chan 17. Planning the Primaiy Schl Curriculum in Develping Cuntries H.W.R. Hawes 18. Planning Educatinal Assistance fr the Secnd Develpment Decade H.M. Phillips 19. Study Abrad and Educatinal Develpment William D. Carter 20. Realistic Educatinal Planning K.R. McKinnn 21. Planning Educatin in Relatin t Rural Develpment G.M. Cverdale 22. Alternatives and Decisins in Educatinal Planning Jhn D. Mntgmery 2. Planning the Schl Curriculum Arieh Lewy 24. Cst Factrs in Planning Educatinal Technlgical Systems Dean T. Jamisn 25. The Planner and Lifelng Educatin Pierre Furter 26. Educatin and Emplyment: a Critical Appraisal Martin Carny 27. Planning Teacher Demand and Supply Peter Williams * Als published in French. ther titles t appear

4 Planning teacher demand and supply Peter Williams Paris 1979 Unesc: Internatinal Institute fr Educatinal Planning

5 The Swedish Internatinal Develpment Authrity (SIDA) has prvidedfinancialassistance fr the publicatin f this bklet Published in 1979 by the United Natins Educatinal, Scientific and Cultural rganizatin 7 Place de Fnteny, Paris Printed by NICI, Ghent Cver design by Brun Pfäffli ISBN Unesc 1979 Printed in Belgium

6 Fundamentals f educatinal planning The bklets in this series are written primarily fr tw types f clientèle: thse engaged in r preparing fr educatinal planning and administratin, especially in develping cuntries; and thers, less specialized, such as senir gvernment fficials and plicymakers wh seek a mre general understanding f educatinal planning and f hw it is related t verall natinal develpment. They are devised t be f use either fr private study r in frmal training prgrammes. Since this series was launched in 1967 the practice as well as the cncept f educatinal planning has undergne substantial change. Many f the assumptins which underlay earlier attempts t put sme ratinality int the prcess f educatinal develpment have been abandned r at the very least criticized. At the same time, the scpe f educatinal planning itself has been bradened. In additin t the frmal system f schls, it nw includes ther imprtant educatinal effrts in nn-frmal settings and amng adults. Attentin t the grwth and expansin f educatinal systems is being supplemented and smetimes even replaced by a grwing cncern fr the distributin f educatinal pprtunities and benefits acrss different regins and acrss scial, ethinc and sex grups. The planning, implementatin and evaluatin f innvatins and refrms in the cntent and substance f educatin is becming at least as imprtant a preccupatin f educatinal planners and administratrs as the frecasting f the size f the educatinal system and its utput. Mrever, the planning prcess itself is changing, giving mre attentin t the implementatin and evaluatin f plans

7 Fundamentals f educatinal planning as well as t their design, and explring such pssibilities as integrated planning, participatry planning, and micr-planning. ne f the purpses f these bklets is t reflect this diversity by giving different authrs, cming frm a wide range f backgrunds and disciplines, the pprtunity t express their ideas and t cmmunicate their experience n varius aspects f changing theries and practices in educatinal planning. Althugh the series has been carefully planned, n attempt has been made t avid differences r even cntradictins in the views expressed by the authrs. T h e Institute itself des nt wish t impse any fficial dctrine n any planner. Thus, while the views are the respnsibility f the authrs and may nt always be shared by Unesc r the IIEP, they are believed t warrant attentin in the internatinal frum f ideas. Since readers will vary s widely in their backgrunds, the authrs have been given the difficult task f intrducing their subjects frm the beginning, explaining technical terms that may be cmmnplace t sme but a mystery t thers, and yet adhering t schlarly standards. This apprach will have the advantage, we hpe, f making the bklets ptimally useful t every reader.

8 Preface Behind the clly systematic apprach that Prfessr Williams adpts in his examinatin f teacher supply and demand is a lgic that cannt fail t appeal t planners althugh its implicatins, if accepted, wuld require the use f mre cmplicated planning prcedures than have been custmary. Briefly, the lgic is as fllws. Expenditure in educatin has nw reached a pint where cntinued escalatin is impssible, retrenchment is likely and greater cst efficiency is imperative. Because educatin is labur-intensive the cst f teachers cnsumes the greater part f the educatin budget. But the cst f teachers is exacerbated by the cst f teacher training and the 'wastage' f trained teachers as they 'drp ut' f the prfessin fr ne reasn r anther. Cnfunding the situatin mre is the nw evident failure f educatin systems t cntrl the flw f trained teachers, with the result that after decades f shrtages there nw appears t be in many parts f the wrld a surplus f teachers. Prfessr Williams' lgic leads him t argue the case fr better and mre systematic planning f teacher supply and demand a slutin that will nt necessarily cmmend itself t all planners r educatinists. Fr example, critics will be quick t pint ut that Prfessr Williams in advcating 'manpwer planning' in educatin is espusing a cause that has in the past been demnstrably discredited. But Prfessr Williams has a cunter t this and argues pursuasively that the circumstances surrunding teacher supply in public educatin systems are singularly different frm thse existing in the cmpetitive markets f the private sectr. Furthermre, he

9 Preface asserts, they are ideal fr the apprpriate applicatin f cnsidered manpwer planning techniques. The HEP is delighted that Prfessr Williams shuld tackle such an imprtant and difficult issue in the way that he has dne. The fact that sme may disagree with him is, we think, all t the gd. f recent years the IIEP has cme t cherish the idea f intellectual cnfrntatin, believing that it is ut f the ppsing f ideas that knwledge prgresses and balanced judgement emerges. Prfessr Williams' bk thus ught t appeal t readers f every persuasin. Thse wh agree with his psitin will have the added benefit f seeing views clarified and useful mechanisms fr actin advanced. Thse wh wuld ppse it will at least knw in detail the shape f their adversary... and the frmidable task that cnfrnts them in attempting t reach a 'better' slutin. Michel Debeauvais Directr, IIEP

10 Cntents I. Intrductin 11 II. Definitins and cncepts 0 III. The demand fr teachers 8 IV. The supply f teachers 52 V. Balancing teacher demand and supply 65 VI. Planning fr a differentiated teacher frce 80 VII. Making teacher prjectins in practice 88 VIII. Cnclusin 96 Further reading 98

11 Ackn wledgmen ts The authr wishes t express his warmest appreciatin t Raymnd Adams, Jhn Chesswas, Birger Fredriksen, Raymnd Lyns, Jhn Mace, Nichlas Summers and David Tanner fr their helpful cmments n an earlier draft. He takes full respnsibility fr the dcument in itsfinal frm.

12 I. Intrductin Aims and cverage The main aims f this study are: 1. T explre the factrs determining demand fr, and supply f, teachers. 2. T cnsider the plicy ptins available t educatinal planners in bringing abut balance between teacher demand and teacher supply.. T describe briefly methds f calculating demand and supply f teachers. A few pints abut the cntent must be made at the utset t dispel any pssible miscnceptins. First, this is nt in any sense an instructin manual n calculating teacher requirements, even thugh it des utline briefly the data needed and the basic steps necessary fr such calculatins. Thse wh wish t pursue the methdlgy f frecasting teacher needs in greater detail are advised t cnsult mre specialised wrks. 1 Secnd, this is nt a bk abut teacher training as such. It is true that a cuntry's teacher-training institutins cnstitute its majr surce f additinal teachers. But discussin f teacher sup- 1. See fr example Chesswas, Jhn, Methdlgies f educatinal planning fr develping cuntries, 2 vls. (Paris, Unesc: HEP, 1969), especially Vl. I, pp. 2-26, and Vl. II, pp , and 72-79; rwerdelin, Ingvar, Quantitative methds and techniques f educatinal planning (Beirut, Reginal Centre fr Educatinal Planning and Administratin in the Arab Cuntries, 1972) pp

13 Planning teacher demand and supply ply must range wider than teacher training. It invlves cnsideratin f a brad range f alternative teacher recruitment pssibilities, and als examinatin f the factrs affecting the flw f peple int and ut f the prfessin. In s far as teacher-training prgrammes d cme under scrutiny in these pages, it is their quantitative impact n verall teacher supply, rather than the mre qualitative issues f cntent and philsphy, that prvides the fcus. Nr, third, is this essentially a study f the rôle and status f the teacher and cnditins f service in the teaching prfessin; these tpics are cnsidered nly frm the pint f view f their crucial impact n the quantity and quality f teacher supply. Furth, 'teacher' in this vlume generally refers t schl teachers in thefirst and secnd levels f educatin. The same general principles as apply t schl teachers are in fact applicable t the planning f demand and supply f teachers fr vcatinal prgrammes and fr third-cycle institutins; and t the brad field f ut-fschl educatin. Sme differences f emphasis in planning teacher demand and supply in these latter areas shuld, hwever, be mentined. Curses and teacher needs in nn-schl educatin tend t be mre specialised than in schls, ffering fewer pssibilities f internal substitutin f ne type f teacher fr anther. n the ther hand external substitutin is easier, as individuals may mve mre freely between teaching and the practice f the ccupatin in which they are instructing. Als there tends t be less centralizatin f respnsibility fr recruitment and training acrss the sub-sectrs f 'vcatinal educatin', 'tertiary educatin' and 'ut-f-schl educatin' as a whle. These differences culd in fact prve significant fr future planning in relatin t schl teachers. Sme bservers fresee that schl systems themselves will becme mre diversified and that teachers' rles within the schl will becme mre differentiated. If this ccurs, sme f the mre cmplex planning prblems encuntered in respect f nn-schl teachers may have t be faced als at schl level. Lastly, this bk addresses itself t the planning f teacher demand and supply at the level f the educatin system natinal r reginal rather than at the institutinal r individual level. The fcus n system-wide frces and trends des nt hwever indicate any lack f interest in the welfare f individual teachers r in their cncerns and mtivatins. Indeed the very reverse is the case: gd verall management f teacher demand and supply is 12

14 Intrductin essential if serving teachers are t be prtected against the threats t their welfare psed by teacher shrtage r surplus. The reader is als reminded that planning f teacher demand and supply cannt be regarded simply as a techncratic exercise being undertaken in a plitical and scial vacuum. Planning fr the teaching frce is necessarily bund up with plitical decisins: and plitics has well been described as 'the art f the pssible'. nly if teacher understanding and c-peratin are sught will the planner find that sme f his prpsed slutins are capable f actual implementatin. In the authr's view it is neither legitimate nr pssible t treat teachers and their interests simply as instruments t be manipulated in the pursuit f abstract planning gals. Althugh sme readers may initially find smewhat curius the ntin f 'planning teacher demand' as well as teacher supply, it may be that they will cme t recgnize the validity f the cncept as they read this bklet, mre especially the discussin in Chapters III and V. Teacher requirements have n autnmy f their wn, but are subject t decisins abut educatinal structures, enrlment rates, pedaggical appraches and gruping f students, schl hurs and teaching lads, teacher remuneratin, and s n. In ther wrds, teacher demand is nt an independent frce, but is as amenable t management as teacher supply. Teacher planning and verall educatinal plans The planning f teacher demand and supply is a central cncern f educatinal planners. T be sure, the ultimate cncern and fcus f educatinal administratin, and f educatinal planning which is a key aspect f it, shuld be the learner and his learning. And it is als true that the achievement f certain limited instructinal bjectives thrugh teacher-less systems has becme technically mre feasible as a result f the cntinuus develpment f self-instructinal methds and f the adaptatin f the mass media fr educatinal purpses. Nevertheless, even where mdern gadgetry has been brught in t imprve the effectiveness f learning, we still find that in every schl system the direct persnal cntact between pupil and teacher remains the linchpin f the educatinal prcess. The effect f the new technical devices in educatin has thus been nt t ablish the rôle f the teacher, but rather t assist it t evlve in a creative way frm that f authritative instructin t 1

15 Planning teacher demand and supply ne f facilitatin and guidance f the learning prcess. Indeed the teacher has a crucial rôle t play in rganizing and 'rchestrating' the use f the media and learning aids, t give the greatest educatinal benefits. In munting any new, changed r expanded educatinal prgramme, therefre, we find that ne f the highest pririty cncerns is securing the necessary teachers fr it. Teacher supply has t be planned well ahead. Recruitment fr teacher-training curses may have t be undertaken as much as five r six 1 years ahead f the time that trained teachers will be needed in the schls. If the teacher-training prgrammes themselves have nt yet been established, it may require an additinal tw r three years t build clleges, recruit training staff and design and munt the training curses. This necessity t think well ahead abut teacher requirements is ne f the majr impetuses behind the develpment f educatinal planning. Careful planning f teacher supply is as vital t qualitative as t quantitative change in educatin. New language plicies, revised curricula invlving changed appraches r different subject emphases, new equipment and teacher aids all have implicatins fr and in turn may depend upn adequate teacher supply, and will make heavy demands upn a cuntry's teacher-training and teacherretraining capacity. Realistic curriculum planning is intimately bund up with questins f teacher needs and teacher availability. Particularly in perids f rapid educatinal expansin, the teacher-training system may itself cme t accunt fr a significant part f educatinal effrt and expenditure. It is nt unknwn fr teacher training t absrb as much as 10 r 20 per cent f the Ministry f Educatin budget, and t accunt fr a high prprtin f enrlments at secndary r tertiary levels. Thus teacher supply becmes an imprtant cnsideratin nt just as a key input fr the expansin and imprvement f primary, secndary and tertiary levels f educatin; but als itself a majr cmpetitr fr the resurces available t the educatin sectr. Such resurces being scarce, there may be cnflict between the demands fr spending n schls and fr spending n the teacher-training system. This may be seen as representing the classic ecnmic prblem f 1. In sme cuntries, Nigeria fr example, the basic primary teacher-training curse has been as lng asfiveyears. 14

16 Intrductin chsing between present benefits (teachers fr the schls nw) and future benefits (mre and better teachers fr the schls, but later); r, in ecnmic jargn, f chsing between cnsumptin and investment. In seeking the ptimal allcatin f resurces between schls and teacher-training institutins, the fllwing kinds f issues must be brached. Are capital and teachers needed mre urgently in schls r in teacher-training institutins? Fr cuntries with acute manpwer shrtages what is the trade-ff in terms f natinal scial and ecnmic advantage in allcating the best-qualified students between teacher-training clleges n the ne hand, and curses leading t the university and ther higher prfessins n the ther? If, fr example, there is a shrtage f well qualified secndary graduates in mathematics and science, hw many f these shuld be diverted frm the pressing claims f agricultural engineering and medical training t g int teacher training? Shuld the manpwer needs f science-based ccupatins be partially satisfied nw, r shuld ne starve these prfessins f entrants temprarily either by manpwer directin r by financial inducement in rder that the quantity and quality f secndary science and maths utput may be mre substantially imprved in five years' time? Planning cncerns chices fr the future, and in educatin sme f the mst difficult decisins cncern the prprtin f current resurces t be invested in securing future teacher supply. A further reasn why teacher demand and supply are s central t the cncerns f educatinal planners is the cst f emplying teachers. Their salaries accunt fr an extremely high prprtin f recurrent expenditure n educatin, particularly at the primary level. Changes in the qualificatins f teachers r in the pupilteacher rati can have enrmus impact n the level f the educatin budget. This pint is taken up again n page 27. Necessity fr lng-term teacher planning We have cnsidered sme f the reasns why planning f teacher demand and supply is a central cncern f educatinal planners because the teacher is a key factr in the learning prcess, because prgrammes f educatinal expansin r imprvement require frward preparatin, because the teacher-training system is itself cmpeting with schls and ther educatinal prgrammes fr 15

17 Planning teacher demand and supply resurces, because f the dminance f teacher salaries in educatinalfinance.since time sequence and phasing are f such cardinal imprtance in all educatinal planning, it may be useful t explre in a little mre depth hw they impinge n teacher demand and supply. Reference has already been made t the lead-time' necessary t munt teacher-training prgrammes and t put students thrugh the curses. This means that if, fr example, new kinds f teachers are ging t be needed in the schls in 1990, actin must be initiated in the early t mid-1980s t prduce them. Hwever, ne shuld beware f exaggerating the extent t which lack f time t train teachers actually prevents shrt-term grwth f enrlment. T d s wuld be t fly in the face f histrical experience. Fr the wrld has witnessed in cuntry after cuntry in the 1960s and 1970s extrardinary rates f enrlment expansin withut the prir thrugh preparatin f the teachers t staff it. Untrained teachers have been engaged at very shrt ntice and in large numbers fr primary and general secndary schls. In the teachingfield ne witnesses an apparent tleratin f the dilutin f the prfessinal cadre n a scale that wuld bring massive prtest if it were applied t civil engineers, surgens r airline pilts. Such dilutin is pssible nly t the extent that the unqualified persnnel represent genuine substitutes fr trained teachers, It may be that in sme f the teacher's rôles that f the child-minder, fr example relatively full substitutin may be effected by emplying an untrained persn, and it is hard t argue that a particularly lengthy training is necessary fr this side f the teacher's jb. Experience has shwn that, given the emplyment situatin in mst cuntries f the wrld and the ffer f a reasnable livelihd, enugh 'warm bdies' can readily be drawn frm the streets r the fields t stand in frnt f classes as 'teachers'. Sme f these hastily recruited, inexperienced and untrained teachers have dne a splendid jb in mre than just a child-care sense, raising questins indeed abut the apprpriateness f the structure and cntent f traditinal teacher-training prgrammes t the actual classrm jb f the teacher. But successful as these makeshift arrangements may have been in increasing schl attendance, the questin is hw far the quality f educatin, in terms f pupil learning, has suffered. Educatinalists will strngly challenge the view that withut special preparatin 16

18 Intrductin 'anyne can teach' well; and will argue that the prfessinal skills, knwledge and mtivatin required by teachers are specific t the prfessin and can be acquired nly thrugh teacher training. Recent studies by the Institute f Internatinal Educatin in Stckhlm lend supprt t the view that in develping cuntries teacher effectiveness is assciated with the amunt f training received. 1 n the ther hand there are thse wh questin the cst-effectiveness f teacher training in develping cuntries. 2 The reslutin f this issue is cmplicated by the fact that in many cuntries teachertraining curses cntain a large element f general educatin which is nt specific vcatinal preparatin fr teachers. In s far as such general educatin is als btainable utside teacher-training institutins, lead-times fr teacher supply culd be reduced, by cnfining teacher-preparatin curses t the vcatinal elements nly. f curse, nt all teacher-educatrs wuld agree that the advantages f reduced lead-time wuld cmpensate fr what they wuld see as pedaggical disadvantages f divrcing general educatin frm vcatinal preparatin. Anther way f reducing lead-times, and ne which is enjying grwing ppularity, is t admit t teaching persns with minimal prfessinal training and prvide them with the necessary prfessinal curses n an in-service basis. Sequence is imprtant in educatin planning, nt nly fr the lng lead-times required t bring abut change, but als fr the lng 'lag-times' ver which past decisins have their ineluctable effects. Nwhere is this mre evident than in the structure f the teaching frce. In taking n large numbers f prly qualified and unqualified teachers t make pssible rapid enrlment expansin, the educatin authrities shuld remember that just as prblematic as the lead-time f several years t prduce trained teachers, is the lag-time f maybe frty years ver which teachers may remain in the teaching frce. If they have nt been well trained, r have 1. Husén, Trsten, New patterns and structures f teacher educatin. Address at Institute f Educatin, University f Lndn, Nvember 1977 (t be published). 2. Wrld Bank, Educatin Sectr Wrking Paper. Washingtn, D.C., 1974, p. 6.. This pint was expressed rather strikingly by the Ghanaian Minister f Educatin, wh in 1970 tld Parliament 'Smetimes I think we are all f us t impatient fr sudden change and d nt sufficiently recgnise that basic imprvements take a lng time t prduce results in educatin. Sme f the teachers wh taught me in the 190s and 1940s received what educatin and training they had at the end f the last century... Equally we are nw training yung teachers in ur clleges wh will still be teaching in the year 2010 A.D., when 17

19 Planning teacher demand and supply 18 been trained in skills r subject areas which becme bslescent, then the system its schls and its students must suffer frm this weakness fr decades, since the authrities have a tacit if nt indeed an explicit bligatin t emply them until retirement. Smething can be dne fr inadequately trained teachers thrugh retraining and in-service curses, but a basic deficiency f educatinal backgrund is almst impssible t crrect entirely at a later stage. As regards untrained teachers, serius time-lag effects have ften been mitigated by high rates f wastage and turnver amng such teachers. This is particularly true f newly hired yung teachers wh may be given nly temprary appintments and may then have t chse between taking regular training, pssibly n an in-service basis, and leaving teaching altgether. In turn, yung peple may themselves see teaching nly as a temprary staging-pst, which will give them the pprtunity t imprve their qualificatins thrugh part-time study r t lk arund fr ther mre remunerative emplyment. The lder untrained teacher, while ften cmpetent and experienced, represents a ptential lnger-term burden that the system may carry fr decades, with many lder teachers lacking the ptential fr further prfessinal develpment, and their emplyers reluctant r unable t terminate their services. The seriusness f lag effects will depend largely n whether the teacher frce is expanding, and n the pace and evenness f such grwth. In this cnnectin ne shuld cntrast systems experiencing rapid and steady grwth with thse underging uneven develpment. In thefirstcase, a cntinuusly expanding system can vercme lag effects by taking advantage, in its recruitment plicies, f the rising levels f educatinal attainment in the ppulatin. The level f educatinal and prfessinal qualificatins f the teachers can gradually be raised, and a steady flw bth f vacancies fr new recruits and f prmtin pprtunities fr existing teachers will be available. The lder less adequate teachers will cme t frm a steadily diminishing prprtin f the teaching frce. The abve situatin shuld be cntrasted with ne f unbalanced grwth in the teacher frce f the kind that many f the wrld's educatin systems have recently been experiencing. In sme f the mre develped cuntries this has been due t a prfund demtin. Members and I will lng be gne; and their yung pupils in that year may still be wrking in A.D. 2070, a hundred years frm nw.'

20 Intrductin graphic change, with birth rates swinging abruptly frm grwth t decline. Enrlments have thus stabilized r fallen, causing a cnsequent drp in the required number f teachers. In ther cuntries, including many develping cuntries, enrlments and teacher needs are still grwing but at a slwer pace than hithert. The prblem fr many f them arises frm the fact that the teacher-training system was expanded t cpe with an exceptinal level f annual requirements when enrlment ratis were rising strngly and there was a need t replace unqualified teachers r expatriates. nce this phase passed, they were left with teacher-training capacity far t large fr their regular cntinuing needs, which are basically t make gd wastage and cater fr the effect f ppulatin grwth. In sme cuntries the lessening f teacher demand has been partially due t restructuring f educatin, with sme stages being shrtened by ne r mre grades. thers, cnfrnted by ecnmic recessin, have had t retrench n educatinal expansin frfinancial reasns. The inexrable rise f teachers' salaries, in particular, has made it difficult t sustain rapid grwth f the teaching frce. S much fr the causes. The cnsequences f a very uneven rate f develpment f teacher supply can be far-reaching and serius, especially when a perid f heavy teacher recruitment is succeeded by ne f slwer grwth in the size f the teaching frce. A typical situatin, particularly amng newly independent cuntries, has unflded in the fllwing way. A rapid expansin f primary and secndary schling has been launched rather abruptly, ften in respnse t a sudden surge in ppular demand, befre gd-quality utput frm the higher levels f the schl system is available fr training as teachers. In these circumstances trainees f very limited educatinal backgrund smetimes with nly a cmpleted primary educatin have been enrlled n 'crash' curses in hastily cnstructed teachers' clleges, staffed by relatively inexperienced tutrs. In additin many unqualified teachers have been hired. With the passage f time the prblem recedes smewhat, fr tw main reasns. First, teacher-training capacity, and utput f trained teachers, rise strngly and this begins t make inrads int the ranks f the untrained. Secnd, fr the reasns utlined in the previus paragraph, demand itself may mderate. In cnsequence whilst the verall stck f teachers cntinues t rise, albeit mre slwly than hithert, the annual required flw f newly trained teachers severely diminishes. 19

21 Planning teacher demand and supply Tw serius cnsequences fllw. In the medium r even shrt term the teacher-training system must stabilise, r even cntract. This is s despite the fact that it can nw attract a much better level f recruits than befre perhaps nw even with upper secndary educatin and will thus actually have t turn away candidates fr training wh wuld have been welcmed with pen arms nly five r ten years ag. Irnically, t, the need fr cntractin may cme just as the teachers' clleges have at last btained tutrs and buildings f the required quality. A number f cuntries in bth mre and less develped regins f the wrld have experienced this dramatic transitin frm rapid expansin t savage retrenchment. 1 In such cuntries the recent perid f clsing lleges and reassigning tutrs has been in melanchly cntrast t the carefree manner in which new places were created and new appintments made nly a decade ag. Secnd, lng-term difficulties in the structure f the teaching frce will result frm the uneven grwth f teacher supply. Imbalance in terms bth f age and f quality may cme abut. Fr the implicatin is that large numbers f teachers are admitted t the teaching frce at a time when educatinal requirements and training curse quality are smewhat lw, and have then been succeeded by smaller grups f teachers f much higher educatin and better prfessinal training. Fr bth grups the slwing dwn f expansin f the teaching frce will result in far fewer prmtin pprtunities than their predecessrs enjyed, and if prmtin is n the basis f senirity rather than merit there is a particularly serius danger f lss f mrale amng yung teachers. Fr the authrities a slw-grwing teacher frce gives rise t many mre prblems than des an expanding ne, particularly in attaining a gd distributin f staff between individual schls, schl districts and subject specialisms. The distrted age-structure will als cause prblems when the teachers cme up t retirement age. The pattern f retirements will reflect the earlier uneven rate f recruitment, s that 'stp-g' (and 'g-stp') recruitment plicies can prduce ripple effects in the teacher frce that may still be felt a generatin r s later. 1. See Freeman, R. B., The vereducaled American, New Yrk, Academic Press, Als Williams, Peter, 'T many teachers? A cmparative study f the planning f teacher supply in Britain and Ghana', in Cmparative educatin, Vl. 1, N., ctber

22 Intrductin The freging discussin f the length f lead-times and lagtimes in teacher demand and supply underlines the need fr the exercise f fresight, and fr a lng time-hrizn, in teacher planning. Whilst lng leads and lags ffer the planner sme measure f certainty and predictability which he may find helpful, they als cnstitute his greatest challenge. Fr educatinal planning invlves effrts t shape the future f an educatin system t respnd t the evlving needs and aspiratins f sciety. There is thus a need frflexibility and fr finding ways f vercming r circumventing the cnstraints which lng lead- and lag-times impse. Teacher planning and manpwer planning Teachers represent a categry f skilled manpwer, and ne can regard the planning f teacher demand and supply as a branch f manpwer planning. That part f manpwer planning which is knwn as manpwer frecasting has gne smewhat ut f fashin since its heyday in the late 1950s and 1960s. At that time part f the ppularity f manpwer prjectins derived frm the fact that they frequently indicated the need fr educatinal expansin, thus legitimizing frm an ecnmic standpint educatinal plicies which gvernments als wished t pursue fr scial and plitical reasns. Mrever this was fr many cuntries the pst-independence perid, and there were clear pririties f lcalizing jbs held by expatriates in the face f an extreme dearth f well-educated natinals f the cuntries cncerned: manpwer frecasting was essential fr this task. T a large extent this plitical impetus behind manpwer frecasting has nw lst its frce. This, tgether with a lack f success with the use f manpwer frecasts in practice, and the pwerful theretical criticisms which have been made f it, may accunt fr the declining frtunes f this technique. In the manpwer requirements apprach t the planning f educatin, manpwer needs are ften derived frm the verall natinal utput target, nrmally laid dwn in a cuntry's develpment plan. This target is brken dwn int separate sectral targets f utput fr the different ecnmic sectrs (transprt, agriculture, industry, banking and cmmerce, cmmunicatins etc.) and scial sectrs (husing, medicine, educatin etc.). The target level f utput in each sectr r industry is then cnverted by applying an utputlabur rati int a manpwer requirement, cnsisting f numbers 21

23 Planning teacher demand and supply f wrkers in each ccupatin required t prduce the utput. The rati used fr the calculatin may reflect existing practice in the cuntry's emplying establishments, as revealed by manpwer surveys, with sme adjustment based n bserved trends in labur prductivity r n cmparisns with technlgically advanced industries r cuntries t take accunt f expected future technlgical develpments. In this way ne can translate a target level f utput (e.g. s many millin tns f steel) int future required stcks f wrkers in varius ccupatins (metallurgists, blast furnace men, ffice clerks etc.) in each sectr. The manpwer needs in the different sectrs are then ttalled t shw requirements by ccupatin fr the whle ecnmy in successive future years. These target stck figures must then be cnverted int required recruitment f new wrkers during the Plan perid. The number f recruits needed has three main cmpnents. There will befirst an verall grwth factr representing the difference between the target numbers and the present numbers in each ccupatin (as ascertained frm emplyment statistics r frm a special manpwer survey f the labur frce); secnd, prvisin fr regular attritin due t resignatin, retirement, death, etc.; and third, any allwance fr replacement f any existing wrkers wh are regarded as temprary r underqualified. These skilled manpwer requirements are then cnverted int educatinal equivalents, signifying the amunt and type f educatin and training that wrkers in each ccupatin shuld have. Finally the ttal educatinal requirement has t be turned int an educatinal plan specifying enrlments in and utputs frm the varius educatin r training curses in each year f the Plan perid; and the necessary investments f buildings, equipment and teachers have t be prgrammed and budgeted. The aim f the manpwer requirements apprach t educatinal planning is t ensure that educatinal utput matches the ccupatinal needs f the ecnmy as clsely as pssible. If successfully applied, it ensures n the ne hand that manpwer bttlenecks, in the frm f an unfreseen lack f trained wrkers, d nt impede develpment, and that frm a manpwer pint f view all the Plan targets are realizable; and n the ther hand that the educatin system des nt ver-prduce categries f educated r trained persnnel unable t btain emplyment. ne can readily see hw this mdel can be applied t teacher 22

24 Intrductin planning. The 'utput target' fr the educatin sectr is frequently expressed in terms f a desired level f enrlments. It is nt difficult t apply the established pupil-teacher rati educatin's versin f the utput-labur rati in rder t calculate ttal future teacher requirements, and t cnvert these int educatinal requirements by using the current teacher certificatin rules. The criticisms that have been made f the manpwer requirements apprach are t many t enumerate here, but the mst frmidable nes centre arund the fact that it is a technlgical rather than an ecnmic apprach. It appears t assume that manpwer requirements are technically predetermined by given levels f required utput, and that the cst f prducing r emplying such manpwer is largely irrelevant, since there is nly ne technlgy and ne cmbinatin f skills that is apprpriate. Hwever the evidence des nt cnfirm this suppsed absence f alternative technlgies, with labur requirementsrigidly predetermined by utput targets. In fact inter-firm cmparisn studies have shwn that fr many prducts a gd deal f substitutin is pssible between capital and labur and als that it is quite feasible t use different mixes f ccupatinal skill t prduce the same prduct. Criticism is als directed at the assumptin that ccupatin-educatin relatinships are fixed, and that there is fr mst ccupatins any necessary clse crrespndence between pssessin f ccupatinal skills and prir cmpletin f particular curses f study and training. The critics pint ut that in the real wrld there is mre than ne rute int many ccupatins (e.g. salesman, managing directr) and that individuals in any case acquire their skills in a variety f ways, including learning n the jb. Apart frm these and ther theretical bjectins, there are als serius practical and technical prblems in defining ccupatins accurately, estimating current labur-utput ratis in each sectr, and s n. Hw far d these bjectins t the manpwer requirements apprach apply in respect f teachers? We may identify a number f respects in which the psitin f teachers is rather special, suggesting that the bjectins t manpwer planning may apply less strngly in their case. 1. The prductive system in which the teacher wrks is technlgically rather simple. The amunt f capital equipment used is rather small, and effrts t substitute capital fr teachers n any large scale have been cnfined t a few islated experiments. 2

25 Planning teacher demand and supply Teachers cmbine rather minimally with ther ccupatinal grups in ding their wrk. In educatin there is very little divisin f functin between full prfessinals and sub-prfessinals, f the kind encuntered in medicine with its large supprt staff fr dctrs. There is sme specialisatin f functin e.g. n a subject basis between teachers themselves, but this des nt perate at all levels f the system. Fr these reasns the questins f alternative technlgies and alternative ccupatinal cmbinatins despite their immense theretical significance^ assume less practical imprtance in teacher frecasts than in thse fr ther ccupatins. 2. Fllwing n frm the freging, given the relative simplicity f the 'prductin prcess' in educatin and the cmparative ease with which pupil-teacher ratis may be calculated, it is in practice nt t difficult t agree n apprpriate utput-labur ratis t be used in making frecasts f requirements. This certainly des nt mean that the ratis used are necessarily ptimal: they appear t be arrived at as much by cnventin as n the basis f any evidence f their efficacy in prmting learning.. The ther pivtal link in manpwer requirements calculatins that between ccupatin and educatin is als less challenged in teaching. The rôle f the teacher is widely understd as being largely cncerned with the transmissin by the teacher t the yunger generatin f the knwledge and skill which the teacher acquired thrugh his wn educatin. This gives a certain persuasiveness t the argument that a teacher's fitness fr his jb can apprpriately be measured quite largely in terms f his qualificatins. 4. The rôle f market frces in the educatin system is smewhat limited in all cuntries, even where (as in cuntries such as the Philippines fr example) there is a large private sectr. In sme cuntries schling itself is nt bught and sld at all, and in cnsequence the public authrities cnstitute a mnpsnistic buyer f teachers' services. Mrever the public authrities als ften cntrl teacher supply itself, because they wn r finance teachers' clleges, and fix r negtiate teachers' salary levels which then apply t all teachers f a given grade. In such situatins prices will nt be self-adjusting t reflect changed supplydemand relatinships, nr culd ne expect teacher supply and 24

26 Intrductin demand t be very respnsive t changes in price. The case fr manpwer planning is strengthened in these circumstances. 5. A useful by-prduct f the abve situatin is that manpwer frecasting fr the teaching prfessin starts frm a sunder data basis than in the case f mst ther ccupatins. With a limited range f emplyers fr teachers, and all schl teachers (unlike, say, accuntants r persnnel managers) emplyed in just ne sectr f the ecnmy, emplyee recrds shuld prvide reliable infrmatin abut the stck f manpwer currently emplyed. 6. The relative ease f predicting ver the medium and shrt terms the size f the educatin system and f educatinal utput shuld make manpwer frecasting fr teachers liable t relatively small margins f errr n the demand side. This is particularly true f cuntries with enrlment ratis appraching 100 per cent f the schl-age ppulatin. But even in ther cuntries shrt-term prjectins are based largely n survival rates fr pupils already enrlled. Hwever, because bth births and schl intake rates are ntriusly difficult t predict with any accuracy, a very marked reductin in the accuracy f frecasts f educatinal enrlment will be experienced as ne extends the hrizn frm shrt- t medium- t lng-term frecasting, and very lng-range prjectins f teacher supply and demand (the fifteen years advcated by sme manpwer frecasters) wuld prbably nt prve useful. The freging cnstitutes a strng case fr the applicatin f manpwer frecasting techniques in educatinal planning. What mst strikes the bserver as surprising is nt that s many cuntries try t make frecasts f teacher requirements, but that, despite the relative simplicity f making manpwer frecasts in educatin, teacher supply planned n this basis has in s many cases been wildly ut f line with actual demand. Any balanced evaluatin f the use f manpwer frecasting techniques in the educatin sectr itself must pinpint three main areas f reservatin abut its usefulness. Thefirst cncerns the substitutin issue and hw far there are knwledge and skills specific t the teaching prfessin, which can be btained nly thrugh teacher training. If in fact there is very little specific prfessinal cntent in the teacher's jb, then the case fr manpwer planning is weakened: fr such a situatin suggests that vacancies can be filled at shrt ntice by untrained teachers. The practice f many 25

27 Planning teacher demand and supply educatinal administratins in the way they staff schls r calculate teacher/pupil-teacher ratis, fr example suggests that they d regard untrained teachers as in sme respects mre r less full substitutes fr trained teachers. This then calls int questin the whle manpwer frecasting apprach with its assumptin f lng supply lead-times, and fixed utput-ccupatin-qualificatin-educatin relatinships. The secnd reservatin arises frm the difficulty f specifying utput in the educatinalfield. ne apprach t educatinal utput sees schl attendance itself, and the experiences f the student in schl, as the utput f the system. In this case it might well be that teacher qualificatin was f less significance than if the main alternative definitin f utput in terms f educatinal achievement by pupils was adpted. If the expected utputs f the educatin system culd be clsely specified, a basis wuld exist fr testing the manpwer frecasting apprach hypthesis, namely that there are extremely limited r nil pssibilities f substitutin between the factrs f prductin. ne culd then enquire whether if cmbined in a different way educatinal inputs (teachers, ther persnnel, buildings, equipment, materials, student time and student abilities etc.) culd prduce the same rise in educatinal achievement by students, but at less cst. Many recent educatin prductin functin studies have been attempting t discver just this. It may be, hwever, that neither apprach t defining utput is crrect n its wn; and that educatin in fact has multiple utput bjectives, in sme cases cmplementary, and in ther cases alternative. Accrding t the bjectives specified, required teacher inputs wuld vary. The third reservatin, applying t all manpwer frecasting but particularly t teachers, cncerns the difference between teacher qualificatin and teacher quality. Manpwer frecasting is nt itself respnsible fr the cnfusin f these tw terms, but des tend t direct attentin twards frmal, measurable attributes f teachers. ne shuld nt allw cncern with qualificatins t bscure the imprtance f quality, in terms f character and mtivatin f teachers, as well as f their ability levels. It is a fact that in many cuntries teachers are better qualified than ever befre, but are nw ften drawn frm lwer strata f ability in the ppulatin than previusly and are nt necessarily superir t their predecessrs in terms f dedicatin. 26

28 Intrductin Financial cnsideratins Bth the demand fr teachers and the supply will be clsely affected by financial cnsideratins. n the demand side the number f teachers required will f curse be the prduct n the ne hand f enrlments, and n the ther f the pedaggical arrangements, expressed thrugh the pupilteacher rati. But these are nt autnmus variables; they are dependent n public plicy: and in fact public plicy twards levels f schl admissin and pupil-teacher ratis will largely reflect the level f educatin csts in relatin t the ttal amunt f funds that a cuntry is ready t devte t the educatinal budget. Additinally the cst t parents f sending their children t schl may have an imprtant bearing n enrlment levels and hence n teacher requirements. The distributin f educatinal csts in the public schl system between the public authrities and parents is als largely the utcme f public plicy decisins. Because educatin is s labur-intensive, and teachers frm such a high prprtin f the labur frce in educatin, teachers' salaries accunt fr a high percentage f the educatin budget. The salary bill fr a teaching frce f any given size (remembering that the size f the teaching frce is itself largely determined by the cst f emplying it) depends n three factrs the level and gradient f the varius salary scales applying t teachers, the distributin f teachers between scales, and the distributin f individuals n each scale. Generally speaking, at early stages f ecnmic and scial develpment there is a tendency fr teachers' salary levels t represent quite a high multiple f natinal incme per head, and fr salary differentials paid in respect f additinal amunts f educatin and training t be large. This is a natural reflectin f the scarcity f educated peple. It is als the case in a perid f rapid educatinal expansin that, where levels f pay reflect qualificatin, a high prprtin f the teachers will initially be n the inferir scales, reflecting their lw levels f educatin and training; and in these fast-expanding systems the majrity f teachers will tend t be yung and smewhere near the bttm f their pay scales. Fr these reasns many develping cuntries have been able t launch prgrammes f rapid educatinal develpment with an initial teacher cst per pupil that is surprisingly lw. 27

29 Planning teacher demand and supply But teacher csts per pupil are almst certain t rise rapidly, even if pupil-teacher ratis d nt change, and even if teachers' salary scales can be held cnstant, at least in real terms. The main reasn is that as educatinal develpment takes place, ne witnesses 'qualificatin inflatin' in the shape f better candidates cming frward fr teacher-training curses, s that there is a prgressive shift f the cmpsitin f the teaching frce frm the lwer t the higher salary scales. The trend will be accelerated if unqualified teachers are being replaced by qualified. The effect is particularly strng in thse educatin systems where teacher salaries are differentiated mre by level f qualificatins than by level f respnsibility f the teaching pst held. A subsidiary reasn fr increased teacher csts is the gradual ageing f the teaching frce when the perid f mst rapid educatin expansin is past its peak. This prduces a rise in the salary bill thrugh 'incremental creep', reflecting the fact that the 'average teacher' salary pint mves frm the lwer twards the upper end f the scale. 1 Fr the abve reasns there is a built-in cst escalatin in the teachers' salary bill irrespective f any change in the level f enrlments r f salary scales. The educatin authrities may therefre find themselves in the difficult situatin f having t hld dwn the salary bill by measures which they believe t be injurius t gd educatin. They may fr example decide t raise the number f pupils per teacher, thus restricting the vlume f teacher emplyment: r they m a y deliberately decide t give preference in recruitment t less well educated teacher-candidates because they will be cheaper t emply. Salaries als influence teacher supply in the mre bvius sense f supply f candidates fr training. f the many cnsideratins that influence the career chices f jb-seekers, salary levels are prbably the mst imprtant. The level f the starting salary in teaching in relatin t that in ther careers is particularly crucial in determining the quality f recruit that can be attracted t teaching. But ne shuld nte als that the structure f salary scales and prmtin prspects, which tgether largely determine lifetime earnings, may als have a significant impact n decisins t enter, 1. Fr an example f the wrking f the factrs utlined in this paragraph, see Chesswas, Jhn, 'Tanzania: factrs influencing change in teachers' basic salaries' in Educatinal cst analysis in actin : case studies fr planners /, Paris, Unesc: IIEP,

30 Intrductin r remain in, the prfessin. These salary cnsideratins may affect wmen differently frm men. Since wmen ften have fewer alternative jb pprtunities utside teaching pen t them, a system f equal pay fr wmen and men may in fact make teaching relatively mre attractive t wmen than t men. In ther wrds, a given salary may attract wmen f an ability higher than that f the men it attracts. 29

31 II. Definitins and cncepts Befre examining in detail the demand fr teachers (Chapter III) and the supply f teachers (Chapter TV) it will be useful t draw attentin briefly t sme f the ambiguities f definitin that can arise, and the crucial distinctin between the stck and flw f teachers. Wh cunts as a teacher? In making estimates f the numbers f teachers needed and f thse available ne shuld be clear as t wh is t be cunted as a teacher. Variatin between educatin systems in their practice can make things awkward fr internatinal cmparative purpses, and Unesc has tried t establish agreed standard definitins. At the natinal level the imprtant thing is that whatever definitin is chsen shuld be clear and cnsistent between regins and schls, and frm ne year t the next. A majr ambiguity may cncern the questin whether 'teachers' will be taken t be all wrking members f the teaching prfessin r nly thse wh are actually teaching in the classrms. The difference between 'teachers' and 'current classrm teachers' culd reflect ne f the fllwing situatins: 1. Sme teachers may in fact be n lng-term release fr in-service training r study leave, r may be secnded/delegated temprarily fr ther duties, including service abrad (quite imprtant in the case f cuntries such as Egypt, fr example). 2. Teachers wh are attached t an institutin may be absent fr shrt curses, sick leave, maternity leave, etc. 0

32 Definitins and cncepts. The staff establishment f a schl r cllege may make prvisin fr teachers t d nn-teaching duties, fr example institutinal administratin, research, librarianship r careers cunselling. Are the staff hlding these psts cunted as separate cadres r as teachers? Unesc's definitin f a teacher runs 'a persn directly engaged in instructing a grup f pupils (students). Heads f educatinal institutins, supervisry and ther persnnel shuld be cunted as teachers nly when they have regular teaching functins'. 1 If teaching persnnel wh are in service but temprarily nt teaching are t be treated as nn-members f the teaching frce, rather than as part f current teacher supply, then mre sphisticated data will need t be kept f the flws f persnnel between teaching and nn-teaching educatinal wrk. If n the ther hand they are included amng teachers in the statistics fr the teaching frce, the estimates f requirements will have t be inflated, and assumed pupil-teacher ratis deflated, t take accunt f this fact. At the utset the planner shuld define the scpe f his teacher planning. Is this t embrace all teachers regardless f where they teach? In such case he will be as cncerned with teachers in ut-fschl literacy classes, in a gvernment department, in the training schl f a parastatal enterprise, r in a private schl as with thse in public schls. Very frequently the term 'teacher' is administratively defined t include nly the last grup. The narrwer the definitin f the educatinal system fr which teacher supply is being planned, the mre necessary it will be t take accunt f mbility between teaching jbs in the narrwer and wider educatin systems. Anther ptential ambiguity cncerns the difference between individuals wh teach and the number f full-time teaching psts. T the extent that teaching may be a part-time ccupatin there will be mre teachers than teaching psts. It is cmmn in sme parts f the wrld in many Latin-American cuntries fr example fr a high prprtin f teachers t be recruited n a part-time basis. There are all kinds f pssible reasns fr this. It may be dictated by the structure f the educatin system, which relies n multiple shifts r ffers many part-time curses fr peple in emplyment. r the structure and rganizatin f the curriculum may 1. Unesc, Recmmendatin cncerning the internatinal standardizatin f educatinal statistics, Paris,

33 Planning teacher demand and supply cmpel the smaller schl t emply teachers fr specialist subjects say, music r languages nly n a part-time basis, because its ttal timetable lad in these subjects is nt enugh t warrant emplyment f a full-time specialist teacher. These needs n the part f the system may cincide with the preferences f the wuld-be teacher, wh may wish t cmbine part-time teaching with anther full-time paid jb r, in the case f married wmen, with running their hme. When aggregating teacher requirements r teacher supply it is imprtant that thse teachers nt carrying the specified full teaching lad be cnverted fr statistical purpses int 'fulltime equivalent' teachers. Thus a teacher wh teaches tw days ut f five n the schl timetable wuld cunt as tw-fifths f a fulltime teacher. Ideally, t, when estimating the supply f teachers it wuld be useful t find ut hw many individuals perfrm mre than ne teaching jb tw part-time jbs fr example, r a full-time jb in the day and a part-time ne in the evening: fr apparent shrtages are ften made gd in this way. Hwever, nly a rather sphisticated recrds system culd generate such infrmatin. Next, in cnsidering supply, we need t knw hw nn-regular members f the teaching frce are treated. In sme cuntries expatriates still accunt fr a high prprtin f teachers at secndary and higher levels. Are they included as part f the permanent supply r nt? What abut ther cntract and temprary teachers? Hw are the underqualified and unqualified treated? Generally speaking it seems best t distinguish between thse n permanent terms f service and thse nly temprarily emplyed. The lngterm aim f mst educatin ministries will be t have mst f their teachers n permanent terms f service. Therefre in prjecting requirements it is necessary t make prvisin nt nly fr 'wastage' amng the permanent teachers, but als fr planned replacement f thse nly temprarily emplyed. Hwever it des nt necessarily fllw, as we have already nted, that because a teacher is unqualified r underqualified he is a nn-permanent emplyee. Level f aggregatin The level f aggregatin being used in planning fr teachers is f the greatest practical imprtance. The mre differentiated the categries f teacher ne needs t identify, the greater the cmplexity 2

34 Definitins and cncepts invlved, because a disaggregated apprach cmpels ne t take accunt f mvement between categries within the teaching frce. The majr categries in which ne may be interested are sex f teacher, age, qualificatin, natinality, teacher's language grup, subjects he is teaching; and this infrmatin shuld be crssreferenced with schl details abut level (primary, etc.) and management (gvernment/lcal authrity/religius/private, etc.). While a teacher may be expected nt t change natinality (r sex!) frm ne year t the next, a switch between private and public sectr schls may be cmmn; and upgrading f qualificatins, r a mve frm the primary t the secndary level, may be part f the accepted way in which teachers make prgress in their careers. A related prblem when a high level f differentiatin is sught, is that the same teacher may fall in mre than ne categry in a single year. This is particularly bvius in the case f teaching subject classificatin. Fr example a secndary schl teacher may teach ten perids f mathematics per week, eight f physics and three f religius studies. Under which subject heading(s) shuld he r she be placed? The chice is either t classify the teacher nly by 'main subject taught' r else t have a highly sphisticated data-recrding system which identifies fractins f a full-time teacher fr each subject. The same issue arises in relatin t teachers' subject qualificatins, bearing in mind that it may be deliberate plicy t prepare teachers t handle mre than ne subject in the schl curriculum. A similar prblem might ccur with a public schl teacher teaching part-time in a private institutin. The simplest level fr which t estimate teacher demand and supply ught t be the primary level, because f the lack f specialisatin amng primary teachers. Specialisatin by subject tends t begin in the lwer secndary r middle grades. But even at primary level ne may well need t distinguish between teachers f different language grups, if several media f instructin are used within ne cuntry. At secndary and higher levels, n the ther hand, the cmplicatin f different branches and subject specialisatins immediately arises. A cuntervailing pint in many develping cuntries, hwever, is that the size f primary-schl enrlment is far less within the cntrl f gvernment than that f secndary-schl enrlment. This is because at primary level, in cuntries withut effective cmpulsry attendance, and n fixed age f entry, the enrlment rati largely reflects parental attitudes

35 Planning teacher demand and supply and decisins. At secndary level n the ther hand a selective system will imply that private demand exceeds the supply f places and ensures that all places n ffer in the public system will be taken up. In these circumstances the main area f uncertainty at secndary level is the amunt f 'verspill' int private secndary schls that must be allwed fr. Usually cuntries plan teacher demand and supply at primary level separately frm secndary, because the educatinal backgrund and training requirement which they demand fr primary and secndary levels are quite distinct frm ne anther. With the develpment f educatin systems and rise in levels f incme, these distinctins becme mre blurred hwever; in sme highly develped cuntries the primary schls can recruit university graduate teachers, r even thse with higher degrees. There may then be little differentiatin in the training curses fr, and qualificatins awarded t, primary and secndary teachers, and teacher demand and supply fr the tw levels may be planned jintly. This makes the planning f prvisin f subject teachers fr the secndary level mre cmplex. A cuntry which wants t be in effective cntrl f its teacher situatin will clearly want t plan in sme detail. This invlves analysis f the present teaching frce and the planning f new supply n a categrised basis. Wastage rates ften differ greatly between men and wmen teachers, and between teachers f different specialisatins and qualificatin levels; s that highly aggregated levels f analysis may yield misleading results. Sme educatin systems find themselves with an verall surplus f trained teachers, yet a severe shrtage f mathematics, science and applied subject teachers, and this kind f prblem can be tackled nly with a disaggregated apprach. f curse thefinerthe detail required, the mre elabrate the teacher recrd system needed. Cmprmises will have t be fund between what the planner wuld ideally like t knw, and what data can be cllected and analysed at reasnable cst. The degree f sphisticatin f data cllectin n teachers must be geared t the natinal situatin in each case. Needs, requirements and demand 'Teacher demand' may have several different meanings, which it is imprtant t distinguish. First, it may cnnte 'needs', used rather 4

36 Definitins and cncepts lsely in a layman's sense t refer t what is desirable. Thus ne may say that a schl r educatin system needs mre teachers, meaning that fr them t have mre teachers is a desirable end in itself. This shuld be distinguished frm a secnd mre instrumental interpretatin f 'demand' as 'requirements'. In this case demand fr teachers is being defined in manpwer planning terminlgy as the numbers technically necessary t prduce a certain specified utput frm the educatin system. Withut teachers f a certain number and descriptin, the utput target culd nt be attained. When the fficial in an educatin ministry's planning ffice speaks f teacher demand, his meaning is ften a mixture f the layman's and the manpwer frecaster's usage. He is ften referring t the number f teachers needed t service a given number f pupils at sme stated pupil-teacher rati. This rati is ften itself an educatin plicy target rather than a technically specified input necessary fr the achievement f stated pupil behaviurs. Much f the discussin f demand in this vlume is in the abve rather pragmatic sense. There is hwever a very imprtant third sense in which 'demand' is used. Ecnmists understand demand t mean market demand. T an ecnmist the 'demand' fr teachers is a functin f the price f teachers and it signifies the number f teachers that emplyers are prepared t hire fr wrk at current pay rates. The ecnmist draws ur attentin t the fact that in a wrld f scarce resurces the amunt f any cmmdity r service, such as teaching, that cnsumers are prepared t buy, depends n its price. If teachers' salaries rise relative t ther prices in the ecnmy then, ther things being equal, fewer will be emplyed. Teacher shrtage and teacher surplus Arising directly ut f the freging discussin is the pint that a shrtage f teachers in a technical sense i.e., insufficient teachers t enrl all children wanting schl places r t staff the schls at what are cnsidered desirable educatinal standards culd well cincide with a surplus f teachers wh cannt get emplyment because at present wage rates and given the present state f the gvernment's budget nbdy can emply them. It is equally pssible fr a situatin t exist in which a requirement has been identified by emplyers, and there are trained persns physically available t fill such vacancies; yet the price which wuld bring supply and 5

37 Planning teacher demand and supply demand int equilibrium is nt ffered. The 'shrtage' thus reflects an unwillingness by gvernment t ffer the market rate fr teachers' skills. Thus we see that the 'technical' and 'ecnmic' definitins f surplus and shrtage will ften differ. It is als salutary t remember hw very dependent the ntin f 'shrtage' r 'surplus', in the nn-ecnmic sense, is n the assumptins used abut acceptable standards. A 'shrtage' may appear quite prnunced if teachers pssessing a certain qualificatin are defined as being unacceptable: but nn-existent if they are recgnised as adequate. In the same way a 'surplus' f teachers when the pupil-teacher rati is 5:1 culd be redefined as a 'shrtage' if a new target f 25:1 were set. Assciated with these different definitins are many alternative ways f measuring the extent f teacher shrtage. The mst straightfrward ne wuld be the number f vacancies existing in schls, indicating that the necessary cmplementary resurces in buildings, equipment and materials were available and that lack f teachers was the btdeneck preventing these resurces being brught int use. Hwever, shrtages in this abslute sense are usually prevented frm manifesting themselves by emplyment f unqualified r underqualified teachers. Thus alternative measures f teacher shrtage might be the number f underqualified teachers emplyed, r the number f qualified teachers having t teach subjects ther than thse in which they were trained. Stcks and flws f teachers In all manpwer planning there is a crucial distinctin t be made between the stck f manpwer in service, and flws f manpwer, which represent additins t the stck and depletins frm it thrugh recruitment t and lss frm the ccupatin in questin. A n excess f recruitment (inflw) ver lss (utflw) prduces increases in the stck, and vice versa. The teaching frce represents the current stck f teachers and the future size f the teaching frce will vary with changes in the number f pupils and in the pupil-teacher rati. The inflw f teachers recruitment cnsists f new teachers frm the teachertraining system, untrained teachers recruited, and frmer teachers attracted back int the prfessin frm ther jbs, frm curses, r frm varius frms f apprved absence. The utflw (teacher lss) 6

38 Definitins and cncepts results frm death, retirement, resignatin, apprved temprary absence and s frth. It is wrth nticing, and we will return t this pint, that there is mre than ne surce f inflw and mre than ne type f utflw. The aim in teacher planning, as in ther frms f manpwer planning, is t achieve a lng-term equilibrium between inflw and utflw such that net teacher flws are equal t the required changes in. the level f the teacher frce (stck) which enable the stck f teachers t satisfy the prjected level f demand. Prblems f attaining a balance between teacher demand and supply are discussed in Chapter V. 7

39 III. The demand fr teachers In the light f the distinctin made at the end f the previus chapter between the stck f teachers and the flw, teacher demand will be lked at under the same tw heads. First the determinants f the required stck f teachers are cnsidered; and the discussin then mves n t cnsideratin f the teacher flws required t maintain, increase r diminish the stck, as fund necessary. The required stck f teachers (size f teaching frce) Basically the ttal size f the teaching frce can be represented as the prduct f tw factrs, 1 which are (i) the number f learners t be enrlled, and (ii) the teaching technlgy in use, resulting in a pupil-teacher rati. Neither f these factrs is altgether technically predetermined; each is largely amenable t plicy decisin, with a range f alternative chices available t the plicy-makers. The chices made will reflect the scial and cultural values f a sciety and the strength f different interest grups; and they may als be influenced by the climate f internatinal pinin. They will very much depend n ecnmic factrs the cst f educatinal inputs and, in particular, f teachers' salaries; the share f the ttal cst f educatin that gvernment is t meet frm public resurces, and the size f the private sectr in educatin; the verall resurce 1. Technically, ne ught als t add a third, quantitatively much less imprtant, factr. This is the number f places in the teaching frce reserved fr teachers nt n teaching duties in the schls. They may be n in-service curses, r delegated t ther duties, r perhaps belnging t a frce f 'supply teachers' nt attached t schls but available t cver fr absences. 8

40 The demand fr teachers availability, bth public and private, fr educatinal purpses; and the assessment made f the cntributin that educatin will make t ecnmic grwth. 1. Number f learners t be enrlled This is the prduct f three key variables: (i) the ages and length f attendance prescribed; (ii) the ppulatin f schl-ging age; and (iii) the enrlment rati. (i) The ages and length f attendance are prescribed by a cuntry's schl structure and its educatinal laws and regulatins. Practice n thse matters varies enrmusly between cuntries. Sme cuntries have nly three grades at the primary stage (e.g. Nepal) and thers have as many as eight (e.g. Malawi); the age f entry in sme cuntries is 5, in thers 6, 7 r 8, while many cuntries in practice permit entry at many different ages; sme cuntries have cmpulsry schl attendance, thers nt; and the length f cmpulsry educatin varies enrmusly. (ii) The ppulatin f schl-ging age (the ppulatin in the agegrup designated as crrespnding t any particular educatinal stage) sets a theretical ceiling n the level f enrlments in that stage. In practice, hwever, this ceiling may be exceeded if there is under-age r ver-age enrlment r if there is much repeating. (iii) The enrlment rati represents the prprtin f the relevant age-grup which is actually enrlled in schl. It reflects bth the intake rate and prgressin (prmtin, repeater and drp-ut) rates. These are imprtantly affected by gvernment plicies f tw kinds. First, there are plicies t determine r influence the demand fr educatin, e.g. whether educatin is t be made cmpulsry, whether legal prvisins regarding cmpulsin are actually t be enfrced, whether educatin is t be fee-free fr the students r nt. It will be clear frm this list that demand is nt a factr entirely independent f gvernment cntrl. The secnd set f plicies are thse n the supply side, affecting the number and type and distributin f places actually made available. Included amng these supply plicies are the rules ministries f educatin make abut under-age and ver-age entry, and abut repeating. Hwever, enrlment ratis reflect at least equally imprtantly the respnse f parents and pupils t the pprtunities available fr educatin. Factrs causing a weak respnse, i.e. lw enrlment, include ecnmic difficulties (direct csts and labur services r 9

41 Planning teacher demand and supply wages fregne thrugh schl attendance), cultural and language barriers, prblems f physical access, unattractiveness f the educatin ffered, and s n. Because f nn-entry and drp-ut, net enrlment ratis (prprtin f children f 'crrect' age attending schl) are ften belw 100 per cent even where sufficient places are available fr all t attend schl. Cnversely hwever, as is well knwn, grss enrlment ratis which relate all pupils enrlled in a schl stage regardless f their age t the size f the ppulatin f 'crrect' age may exceed 100 per cent if there is whlesale repeating r under- and ver-age entry. Such are the bvius cnstituents f 'numbers t be enrlled'. It is n easy matter, hwever, t estimate frm available data what future levels f enrlment will be. The task in a develped cuntry with gd census and ppulatin registratin data, and fr levels where there is enfrced cmpulsry schl attendance, is cmparatively straightfrward, at least fr the shrt- and medium-term future, fr which schl entrants may already have been brn when the prjectins are made. But in a develping cuntry with unreliable r incmplete ppulatin data, pssibly lacking infrmatin n the age f existing students, and with attendance at the ptin f students, it is a far mre cmplex matter invlving a whle range f assumptins f dubtful validity. Methds f prjecting enrlment cannt be treated in a shrt vlume such as this, and the interested reader is advised t cnsult the relevant literature. 1 The tw basic pints t be grasped frm ur brief discussin here arefirstthat the best pssible prjectins f enrlment are indispensable fr teacher frecasting; but secndly since (particularly in develping cuntries) the frecasts are unlikely t be whlly reliable, fr reasns beynd the planner's cntrl, it is desirable t prvide fr the greatest pssibleflexibilityin the arrangements fr teacher supply. 2. Technlgy f educatin and pupil-teacher ratis The educatinal technlgy in use is the key t the utput-labur rati in educatin (pupil-teacher rati) and enables ne t calculate teacher requirements frm pupil enrlments. In the present cntext 1. See especially Unesc, Methds f prjecting schl enrlment in develping cuntries (paper n. CSR-E-19 in the series 'Current studies and research in statistics', prepared by the ffice f Statistics, Divisin f Statistics n Educatin, Unesc). Paris, Unesc,

42 The demand fr teachers 'educatinal technlgy' des nt refer narrwly t equipment, devices and gadgets: rather it embraces the brad areas f curriculum cntent, pedaggical methd and educatinal rganisatin. Curriculum cntent defines what is t be taught and learned, and the pattern f experiences devised fr the child. Pedaggical methd indicates hw teacher-learner interactin is cnducted in the different curriculum areas f knwledge and experience e.g., thrugh lecture, self-study with r withut supervisin, radi-listening r TV viewing, grup/individual tutrial, discussin grup with peers, prject wrk, etc. The pedaggical methd is clsely interrelated with learning materials, equipment, buildings and physical envirnment and s n, but we are cncerned here nly with the teacher demand implicatins f different pedaggical methds. It is educatinal rganisatin which effectively cnverts curriculum cntent and pedaggical methd fr a given number f learners int teacher requirements. There are three key cmpnents: 1. Average class size, using 'class' t dente a registered grup f pupils cnstituting a recgnised permanent sub-unit f the pupil bdy. 2. Average number f 'teacher cntact perids' required by a class ver a cmplete teaching cycle (ften, but nt invariably, a week f five days divided int between 0 and 50 instructinal perids). The weekly input f teacher perids required will exceed the average length f the pupil wrking week if classes are subdivided fr part f the week fr practical subject teaching, fr small discussin grups r fr remedial teaching. Cnversely there may be a 'saving' n teachers during self-study perids r at such times as classes are cmbined fr activities such as films, lectures r games. bviusly the number f weekly teacher cntact perids required by each class will depend n the curriculum cntent and pedaggical methd in use. It shuld be nted that class subdivisin r cmbinatin may well cause the average size f grups actually taught t differ frm the registered class size.. Average teaching lad per teacher, expressed in number f classcntact perids per week. This cvers class-cntact perids nly, nt ttal wrk perids f teachers (which wuld include lessn preparatin and marking). It is an average lad, bearing in mind that teachers with different levels f experience and qualificatins, and f different subjects, may have varying lads. It is at this pint, in cnsidering what lies behind the familiar 41

43 Planning teacher demand and supply pupil-teacher rati, that we find ne f the meeting places f the quantitative and qualitative aspects f educatinal planning, s ften claimed t be in cnflict with each ther. The pupil-teacher rati is simply a shrthand quantitative expressin fr smething very m u c h mre cmplicated and qualitative; and whilst much the simplest way f calculating teacher requirements is t apply sme assumed pupil-teacher rati t the numbers f pupils t be educated, the educatinal implicatins f the assumed pupil-teacher ratis shuld be understd. Indeed, the pupil-teacher rati used fr teacher requirements frecasting shuld be based n sme 'teaching and learning strategy' which specifies amng ther things the average size f classes, the ttal amunt f teacher-cntact time required by a class ver a week, and average teaching lads per teacher per schl week. Figure 1 illustrates the way in which relatinships between the numbers f pupils and teachers can be expressed by using the shrthand f pupil-teacher rati; r in a mre cmplex lnghand in terms f average size f classes, class-teacher time per week and teacher lads. The shrthand and lnghand versins express the same thing; s that if ne arbitrarily changes the pupil-teacher rati frm 5:1 t 40:1, specifying fewer teachers fr the same number f pupils, this will have t be translated in the schls int lnger hurs fr teachers, shrter hurs fr students, r bigger classes (r a cmbinatin f all three). Changes in the pupil-teacher rati are smetimes assumed t affect nly the last f these, class size. Indeed class size is ppularly ften thught t be the same thing as the pupil-teacher rati; which indeed, particularly in the primary schls f pr cuntries, it may actually be. The illustrative examples in Table 1 make the difference clearer, hwever (cmpare values fr s with thse fr r). Schl A in Table 1 represents a typical primary schl, in this case having seven classes, each taught as a single grup fr the whle timetabled week. Teachers are expected t teach every perid f the week. The pupil-teacher rati and the average class size are identical in this case; s the number f classes is the same as the number f teachers. In Schls B, C, D and E we changefirstthe average class size (Schl B), then the number f classes (Schl C), then the teachercntact perids per class per week, gverning the pssibilities f subdividing the class fr sme perids (Schl D), andfinallythe 42

44 The demand fr teachers NUMBER F PUPILS (280) NUMBER F TEACHERS REQD. (22.9) NUMBER F CLASSES (8) NUMBER F WEEKLY TEACHER CNTACT PERIDS PER CLASS (480) NTES 1. Figures in brackets in the bxes are illustrative, and are taken frm Schl F in Table Mathematical signs and directinal arrws indicate relatinships between neighburing rectangular bxes (via val bxes). FIGURE 1. Cnstituent elements in the pupil-teacher rati. 4

45 Planning teacher demand and supply S s V M N N (N N N «n Ml m MM - ÜHfl X X X X X X X l> ) r- N >-î (N r* ^ T-H (N w^ " </1 ( Tt» -H «^ ' (N r^ m m (N $ i- -i- -i- -i- -i- -i- -ig I 1 i II! In » Q en m TJ- u-j m *0 CN X X X X X X X iirr T C C 4 J a c»1 E S r-* r^ r^ r-- r- > «Tt m rt ^- TÍ- m I- "I" 'I' -I" 'I' 'I- "I- <N<NfS(N<NrM<NfN < m ü Qpq fe 0 i îlî. ífi lili IÎ i 44

46 The demand fr teachers length f the teacher's week (Schl E), s as t bserve hw each f these factrs independently will affect the teacher requirement and in cnsequence the pupil-teacher rati. Schl F illustrates the effect f changing all these fur variables simultaneusly. In Schl B the average class size has been lwered, t prvide that the 280 pupils are divided int eight classes f 5, thus requiring the prvisin f ne extra teacher. In Schl C the class size reverts t 40, but the length f the schl week is increased frm 5 perids t 45. Since the individual teacher lad is nly seven-ninths f this (5 class cntact perids per week), the seven classes nw require a ttal f nine teachers. In Schl D an extra 15 teacher-cntact perids are given t each class, making pssible the splitting f classes fr sessins in smaller grups fr 15 ut f the 5 perids in the week. Expressing this in anther way, ne culd say that the teacher allcatin per class is increased by 4 per cent, frm ne teacher per class t 1.4 teachers per class; this makes it pssible fr pupils t be given instructin in smaller-sized grups r n an individual basis. As an illustratin f the variety f teaching methds and styles that culd result frm the prvisin f ten teachers fr seven standard-sized classes, ne culd imagine that the first three perids f the schl week might be rganised as fllws: 1. 4 grups f 40 (standard classes) =160 plus 6 grups f 20 (half classes) = 120 i.e., 280 pupils in 10 grups with 10 teachers 2. 1 grup f 120 ( standard classes watchingfilm,supervised by tw teachers =120 plus 8 grups f 20 (half classes) =160 i.e., 280 pupils in 9 grups with 10 teachers. 7 grups f 40, less 9 pupils withdrawn fr remedial wrk = 271 plus grups f pupils withdrawn n rtating basis fr remedial wrk with 1 teacher per grup = 9 i.e., 280 pupils in 9 grups with 10 teachers 45

47 Planning teacher demand and supply f curse, mst schl systems cannt affrd such a generus prvisin f teachers, and the abve examples are illustrative nly. But the prvisin f even an extra 10 r 15 per cent f teacher time t each class can make pssible a great deal f variatin in teaching mde and size f the learning grup. In Schl E the difference frm Schl A is that the average teacher lad has drpped t 21 perids, teachers spending n average 14 perids ut f the 5-perid week nt in frnt f a class. These 'nn-teaching' perids may be used fr administrative wrk, marking and preparing, and s n. Nte that it is the average teacher lad that has drpped cmpared with Schl A it may be that tw r three members f the schl staff have mainly administrative duties and teach less than five perids per week, leaving the remaining teachers t bear a heavier lad. In Schl F simultaneus changes are made in class size, length f the schl week, number f teacher cntact perids per class and teacher lads, each variable being altered in the directin which requires additinal teacher prvisin. The cmbined effect f all fur changes is t mre than triple the teacher requirement in Schl F cmpared with Schl A, and the pupil-teacher rati falls prprtinately frm 40:1 t nly 12.:1. Schl G represents a rather different situatin frm any f the thers the duble-shift schl. Here, instead f having a new set f teachers fr the afternn shift (which wuld effectively amunt t the creatin f tw schls in the same buildings), the pupils have 'shrt-time' schling and the teachers take bth mrning and afternn shrtened sessins. The size f the teaching grups is n different frm Schl A, but the pupil-teacher rati has sared t 80. The freging discussin suggests that the pupil-teacher rati finally arrived at is the prduct f chices in different areas f schl and curriculum rganisatin. Tw imprtant limitatins t the planner's freedm f chice shuld, hwever, be nted. First, it may well be that the size and number f existing classrms in schls preclude either large classes n the ne hand r sub-divisin f classes n the ther. This prblem may f curse be vercme in new schls byflexiblebuilding design. Secnd, in rural areas there may be cnstraints impsed n pssible class size by the facts f ppulatin distributin. Althugh a standard primary class size f 40 may be specified in the schl regulatins, there will be villages 46

48 The demand fr teachers where nly 5 r 10 seven-year-ld children present themselves fr grade 1 f schl each year. T sme extent, ne may be able t achieve an ecnmically mre viable teaching grup by cmbining cnsecutive grades under ne teacher, r by frming ne-teacher schls. Rich cuntries may be able t affrd bussing, r barding schls, in rder t build up classes t a viable size. But it is a fact f life, fr which the educatinal planner must be prepared, that actually achieved average pupil-teacher ratis in cuntries with large and scattered rural ppulatins will almst always be belw the nrm. 1 This cncludes ur discussin f the required size f the stck f teachers verall. Later, in Chapter VI, we will cnsider demand fr teachers f different subjects and in different regins. It is hped that the reader has been able t identify the many pints at which chices have t be made with regard t the tw main determinants f teacher demand; namely, the number f pupils t be educated and the technlgy f educatin t be adpted. Certainly chice will be inhibited by scarcity f financial resurces, but ne must still chse within the resurces available between expenditure n educatin and expenditure n ther gds and services, and within educatin between different technlgies. This is why we speak in this vlume f 'planning teacher demand' as well as f 'planning teacher supply'. The required flw f teachers S far teacher demand has been cnsidered frm a static pint f view in terms f the determinants f the size f the teaching frce at any given mment. ur discussin must nw switch t a dynamic perspective and cnsider the flw f teachers ver time. In ther wrds it is necessary t examine the factrs determining the rate at which teachers shuld be recruited. There are three main factrs f change t be taken int accunt: 1. Grwth r decline f the ttal teacher stck, reflecting change in the size and cmpsitin f the schl ppulatin and/r change 1. The prblems f frming viable-sized teaching grups are further discussed in Jacques Hallak's recent study Planning the lcatin f schls: an instrument f educatinal plicy (Paris, Unesc: IIEP, 1977). 47

49 Planning teacher demand and supply in plicies affecting the scale f prvisin f teachers fr any given number f pupils. We may call this element 'develpment' demand fr teachers. 2. Planned change in the nature and cmpsitin f the teacher stck itself, fr example the deliberate phased replacement f particular categries such as prly qualified teachers r f expatriates. This might be termed 'special replacement' demand.. Change in the individual cmpsitin f the teacher frce due t regular causes f attritin such as death, retirement, resignatin, etc. This element might be designated 'nrmal replacement' demand. 1. Develpment demand Changes in the size f the teaching frce, arising frm grwth r decline in enrlments r frm changes in the way teachers are used in the educatin system, cnstitute develpment demand. Such changes may nrmally be expected t result in increased demand fr teachers, because f ppulatin grwth and higher participatin rates in educatin, and because cuntries as they develp hpe t imprve staffing ratis. But there is f curse n inherent reasn why the changes shuld be in that directin. Quite a number f cuntries nw fresee a smaller teaching frce in future, fr either demgraphic rfinancialreasns. Grwth r decline in the numbers t be taught, as was nted n page 40, wuld be the utcme f changes in ne r mre f three main variables, as fllws. (1) The lengthening r shrtening f schl curses, r a change in the entry r leaving age, will directly affect enrlments. (2) The grwth r decline f the numbers in the age grup is likely t be still mre imprtant. In many develping cuntries it is necessary t prduce enugh extra teachers each year t cater fr an additinal r 4 per cent mre children just t maintain the same enrlment rati as at present. In ther areas f the wrld, such as parts f Western Eurpe and the United States, n the ther hand, the annual number f births has drpped by a quarter r mre in the past ten years. () Rising r falling enrlment ratis are the third majr determinant f changes in the numbers t be educated. If, fr example, a prgramme f universal primary educatin is t be annunced, ten new universities are t be built, r fee levels are t be reduced, enrlment ratis will rise and the cnsequences fr teacher demand will be prfund. 48

50 The demand fr teachers Changes in educatinal practice, affecting future pupil-teacher ratis, will be the ther determinant f 'develpment demand'. Such changes may arise frm prfessinal cnvictin abut the educatinal efficacy f sme innvatin, such as the intrductin f new subjects t the curriculum, r f new ways f using teachers. Fr example, a decisin t intrduce mre practical subjects wuld prbably require smaller learning grups, as wuld additinal remedial classes fr slwer learners, and a higher teacher requirement wuld result. Cnversely, it has smetimes been claimed (thugh nt yet cnclusively shwn t mst peple's satisfactin) fr the mass media, that they can ptentially be substituted fr teachers: if this were s, a decisin t intrduce 'schling by TV might reduce the number f teachers needed. n the ther hand, changes in the pupil-teacher rati may sme^ times simply reflect availability r shrtage f mney rather than prfessinal judgments. There is in any case a cnstant tensin between the educatrs and ecnmists ver whether 'imprving the pupil-teacher rati' is t be interpreted in an educatinal sense as meaning fewer pupils per teacher, r in a cst-reducing sense meaning mre pupils per teacher (less teacher cst per pupil). If the claims f sme researchers that learning achievement is nt adversely affected by larger learning grups were validated, the financial advantages f higher pupil-teacher ratis might well carry decisive weight with the plicy-makers. 2. Special replacement demand These prgrammes, arising frm the deliberate intentins f the managers f the system, generally aim at replacement f freign teachers by natinals f the cuntry r f prfessinally untrained r unqualified teachers by qualified nes. This presuppses that thse t be replaced are n temprary terms and can in fact be asked t leave, n being given due ntice f terminatin f their services. In a few instances it may be fund that expatriate r unqualified teachers in fact have permanent and pensinable appintments, and that the replacement prgramme cannt apply t them all. Fr unqualified teachers 'replacement' may mean nt summary dismissal, but being given the pprtunity t enter teacher-training clleges; r they may be ffered part-time in-service curses by crrespndence, radi, etc., t upgrade themselves t qualified status while teaching. In sme cuntries this prcess f gradual 'internal 49

51 Planning teacher demand and supply prmtin' f unqualified teachers t qualified status is a recgnised feature f the system. It necessitates rather careful accunting f teacher flws, since such teachers may change status withut ever leaving the teaching service. In drawing up the replacement prgramme the crucial questin t be decided is the length f the perid ver which replacement is t take place; this determines the required annual flw f new teachers fr this purpse. The 'change f gear' invlved in starting and cmpleting replacement prgrammes can dislcate teacher supply facilities unless carefully phased. A gradual phasing in and ut f replacement will bviusly put less strain n the system than an abrupt start and finish. A final pint t nte n replacement prgrammes is that the desirability f cmplete replacement f temprary categries f teacher is nt whlly self-evident. Quite apart frm the pssibility that they may be cheaper t emply, temprary teachers are als ften mre willing t serve in difficult psts. T keep a pl f temprary appintments in a teaching frce (even if the individual incumbents f thse temprary psts change) can prvide a much neededflexibilityin respnding t changes in demand arising frm unpredictable trends such as ppulatin shifts. There is much t be said fr planning a teacher frce with nly per cent permanent and pensinable emplyees, rather than aiming fr the full 100 per cent.. Nrmal replacement demand The stck f teachers is liable t 'natural wastage'. Even when there is n develpment demand and n special replacement prgramme, it will still be necessary t recruit new teachers t maintain and renew the stck. therwise death, retirement, resignatin and illness will take their tll and the number f teachers will decline. Teacher wastage is discussed in mre detail in the next chapter under the supply f teachers. Indeed, we cannt take the discussin f demand further at this pint withut first investigating supply, since the requirement f new teachers derives frm the gap between 'stck required' and 'stck available' at sme future date. We shall therefre return t discussin f demand in relatin t supply in Chapter VII. Meanwhile this sectin can be summarised by listing again the elements that g int teacher demand. It is useful fr plicy pur- 50

52 The demand fr teacher^ pses if calculatins f teacher demand can specify separately these cmpnents f ttal demand: Develpment demand changes due t enrlment grwth/decline resulting frm structural change ppulatin change change in enrlment ratis changes in pupil-teacher rati resulting frm class size change length f schl week change teacher perids per class change teacher lads change Special replacement demand unqualified, underqualified expatriates thers Nrmal replacement demand retirement rther i?* í discuss u e d resignatin, etc. in Cha P ter IV - 51

53 IV. The supply f teachers The supply f teachers shuld be cnsidered under the same tw heads as demand, namely stcks and flws. The stck f teachers is anther name fr the teacher frce: teacher flws include bth utflws (wastage frm varius causes) and inflws (new recruitment, re-entry). The stck f teachers (teacher frce) Basically the supply f teachers at any mment in time cnsists f the teachers serving in the schls, plus thse wh are n the payrll but n temprary release fr in-service training r apprved leave. The ttal supply f teachers des nt necessarily equal the demand, fr schls and clleges may be shrt-staffed and have vacancies. Alternatively, there may be versupply, with educatinal institutins staffed abve their nrms; the fact that teachers are emplyed des nt necessarily prve a manpwer 'need'. It was als nted in the discussin f replacement prgrammes in Chapter III that the cmpsitin f the teaching frce may smetimes be regarded as unsatisfactry, s that althugh supply may quantitatively equal demand in terms f verall numbers, it may be cnsidered unsatisfactry in qualitative terms. This is the case when many unqualified teachers are in service, r when particular areas f the curriculum such as mathematics either have t be drpped thrugh lack f teachers, r are being taught by whlly inadequate staff. It is essential fr sund planning that the educatinal authrities have at their dispsal full infrmatin abut the size and charac- 52

54 The supply f teachers teristics f the existing teaching frce and its distributin between different types f schl. This is s fr several reasns. In the first place it makes pssible a cmparisn with demand and allws the adequacy f existing supply, and the efficiency with which it is used and distributed, t be assessed. Secnd, t the extent that the teaching frce in fact cnsists f several sub-ppulatins each with characteristics f its w n, future supply bth verall and in subcategries can nly be prjected at all accurately if calculatins are made n a disaggregated basis. Third, the annual budget prjectins and sundfinancialplanning depend n accurate infrmatin abut the teacher stck. All this may seem bvius, but it is nevertheless surprising hw pr the state f teachers' recrds and f statistical data abut the teaching frce is in a great many cuntries. The tw main surces f infrmatin n the teacher frce are the annual (r mre frequent) statistical returns frm the schls and the persnnel recrds kept n individual teachers. The latter shuld cntain data fr each teacher n age, sex, educatinal backgrund and prfessinal qualificatins, current status and senirity, recrd f teaching experience and psts held, language (where relevant in a multilingual system) and salary. S lng as this data is kept regularly up t date it can prvide bth a picture f the current stck f teachers and infrmatin n the lss and transfer f teachers, as well as their re-entry. If the recrds are held n a cmputer such infrmatin shuld be readily accessible. In many cuntries, hwever, the system f teacher recrds is nt yet sufficiently efficient t rely mainly n them fr data abut the teacher frce, and the schl statistical returns are used. The disadvantage f these is that they are less detailed; they prbably mit data n teachers temprarily absent frm the classrm; and they cannt be used t trace the destinatin f teachers wh mve frm a schl between census dates even thugh they may recrd their departure. Cnsequently they yield aggregate data frm which nly rather crude estimates f the magnitude f teacher flws can be made. n the ther hand, the schl census is a useful surce f infrmatin n the way in which teachers are being used in schls, their teaching lads and the subjects and levels they are teaching. f particular significance are the data n age and qualificatin, making pssible the cnstructin f age-qualificatin prfiles f the teaching frce. The preparatin f successive annual prfiles can 5

55 Planning teacher demand and supply prvide vital infrmatin n the numbers reaching and likely t reach retirement age, n ptential prmtin blcks resulting frm unevenness in past intakes f the teaching frce, and n the steady imprvement (if such there be) f teacher qualificatins. Teacher flws 1. utflws The bulk f teacher supply in any year cnsists f teachers retained in service frm the previus year. The teaching frce is like a large rchard, which has been planted ver many years and yields its return ver a lng perid. It takes many years t mature and cannt be replaced quickly. New varieties are cntinually being planted but the great bulk f prductin is frm mature trees and it is nly ver a decade r mre that the new varieties cme t accunt fr the majr part f the fruit crp. But, like an rchard, the teacher stck is subject t deteriratin and lss. Teachers die, 'wear ut' and fall sick, grw lder and have t retire. They als, like trees, becme unprductive and if persnnel inventries culd recrd the effectiveness f teachers it wuld be fund that the majrity f teachers were in need f 'recnditining' thrugh in-service curses r retraining, just as an rchard requires spraying, fertiliser r tree surgery. Teachers may als and here the analgy f the rchard n lnger hlds gd resign. The teaching frce is, then, a wasting asset, subject t cnstant depletin f a number f distinct kinds. The mst bvius are: 1. Death. In the case f a rapidly expanding teacher frce with a prepnderance f yung and recently qualified teachers this will nt be a majr cause f lss; especially as teachers tend t belng t grups f higher sci-ecnmic status, with a higher life expectancy, than the average. 2. Retirement. The rate f retirement will depend n the prfile f the teaching frce. In a cmpletely stable teaching frce, with n ther surce f wastage, the numbers reaching retirement age wuld f curse equal new annual intake. But in systems that have recently been expanding fast, the average age f teachers is much nearer entry age than retirement age; and instead f retirement running at say per cent (implying 100 per cent turnver ver an average career span f years) we may find it 54

56 The supply f teachers running at nly 0.5 r 1 per cent. Clearly a shrt wrking life, resulting frm a late age f graduatin frm teacher training and an early retirement age, will, ther things being equal, prduce a higher prprtin f annual retirements relative t the size f the teaching frce than if graduatin is early and retirement late.. Resignatin. This cause f wastage is the ne that perhaps attracts mst attentin, since it is clsely bund up with the issue f the attractiveness f teachers' terms and cnditins f service relative t alternative livelihds. Whilst the 'alternative' may nrmally be anther salaried jb, it may als invlve return t the hme village t run a family business r farm, r in sme cultures may just as likely be the pssibility f reversin by married wmen t the life f full-time husewife and mther. In ntari, Canada, fr example, between 1965 and 1970 abut 5 per cent f all withdrawals frm the elementary teacher frce each year cnsisted f 'married wmen retiring t husehld'. 1 In cnsidering the relative attractiveness f teaching and ther jbs, the factrs that a teacher is likely t take int accunt include (i) cnditins f service: these include pay, allwances, pensin entitlement, husing arrangements, hurs f wrk, etc., and are undubtedly the mst imprtant cnsideratin fr mst teachers; (ii) prmtin prspects: it is unfrtunately true that even when starting rates f pay fr teachers have becme cmpetitive with thse fr ther ccupatins, the rati f senir t junir psts (f 'generals' t 'privates') tends in many cuntries t be unfavurable. In highly centralised cuntries the teaching service, which may be as big as the rest f the public service put tgether, ften has ne chief prfessinal pst nly, whilst twenty ther smaller prfessins may als have ne each. As imprtant as the prmtin structure f the prfessin are the practical pssibilities fr teachers t earn prmtin thrugh imprving their qualificatins and prfessinal cmpetence; (iii) prfessinal supprt: teaching can be a lnely and islated jb where mrale depends very much n the success f the prfessinal leadership in making teachers in the field feel they are ding a jb that is 1. Watsn, Cicely; Quazi, Saeed and Jnes, Russ, The elementary teacher: a study f the characteristics and supply/demand relatins f ntari teachers. ntari, Department f Educatinal Planning f the ntari Institute fr Studies in Educatin,

57 Planning teacher demand and supply appreciated, and in giving them pprtunities fr prfessinal cntacts and prfessinal refreshment; and (iv) persnnel administratin: the sense f fairness and efficiency, particularly ver the matter f pstings, appintments and prmtins, is vital. 4. Dismissal in the case f miscnduct; the numbers affected are usually very small. 5. Temprary withdrawals. These include secndments and apprved absence fr in-service training, study leave, military r natinal service, etc. 6. Redesignatin within educatin. This wuld cver thse wh are prmted frm teaching t supervisry psts f varius kinds in educatin. The persns cncerned may thus be lst t teaching but nt t the educatin service as a whle. In lking at the cmplete teaching frce it has nt been necessary t take accunt f transfers between segments f the educatin system, since transfers d nt represent lss t the entire stck f teachers. But if ne is lking at a sub-sectin f the system Grade B teachers in primary schls in the Suthern Regin, fr example lss t that particular sub-ppulatin f teachers will include transfers ut t private schls, t nursery and secndary schls, t the Nrthern and Eastern Regins, upgrading t Grade A status, and s n. In a similar way ne must distinguish between teacher turnver and teacher wastage. Turnver refers t the annual rate f teachers leaving their particular schl pst. Thus turnver wuld include nt nly wastage, but als the lateral mvement f teachers between identical psts in different schls. This is extremely imprtant frm the pint f view f stability f schl staffing and the sense f permanence that a schl cmmunity may have. Frm the pint f view f the learners, the reductin f turnver, with all the distressing discntinuities it implies, is a matter f pririty. But it is a phenmenn distinct frm wastage, lss r attritin; even thugh it may have sme similar causal rts. It is impssible t generalise abut levels f retentin and wastage in the educatin systems f the wrld. The amunt f wastage bviusly varies very much accrding t the ecnmic climate, being lwer when alternative jbs are scarce. In cuntries with severe manpwer shrtages, alternative pprtunities fr teachers may be gd and resignatin rates will be heavier, unless checked by bnding arrangements. Clearly the age and sex structure f the 56

58 The supply f teachers teaching frce affects the level f wastage quite cnsiderably. An ther influential factr is the level f general educatin f the teacher, with university graduates fr example having many mre attractive emplyment pprtunities and s being much mre mbile than certificate-trained middle-schl leavers. The estimatin f future teacher wastage rates is ne f the mst prblematical areas in teacher frecasting even where and this cnditin des nt apply in all cuntries gd data exist n the size and causes f wastage in the past. Particularly difficult t frecast are the numbers likely t resign t take up ther ccupatins, fr this largely reflects relative cnditins f service in teaching and ther ccupatins. Similarly unpredictable future changes in the birth rate will nt nly affect the number f children t be taught, but will als in the shrt term have their impact n numbers f wmen withdrawing frm teaching fr maternity reasns. 2. Inflws It is just pssible t cnceive f an educatin system which was running dwn at such a pace that the existing teacher stck, cntinuing frm year t year n a depleted basis, cnstituted a sufficient supply t meet diminishing demand. In that case n new recruitment wuld be necessary. There are many examples f individual educatinal institutins which have been allwed t 'die' in this way by being frbidden t take n new staff; but prbably n cmplete educatinal system has perated n such a basis fr mre than a year r tw at a time. Even where the size f the system and f the teaching frce is cntracting, the annual fall in the required stck f teachers wuld nrmally be less than annual teacher wastage; s that sme new recruitment wuld still be necessary. And mst educatin systems are nt in such a state f cntractin; they are experiencing a strng develpment demand fr teachers, stemming frm their plans fr bth expansin and imprvement. This, tgether with replacement needs, gives rise t a large requirement f new recruits. The main surces f annual new recruitment f teachers are: 1. Thse returning t the classrm frm secndment, leave r inservice training (categry 5 wastage n page 56). 2. The teacher-training system (initial training).. Recruitment frm the dmestic labur market f (a) frmer qualified teachers wh have left the service at sme 57

59 Planning teacher demand and supply time past (categry and pssibly even categry 2 wastage n pages 54-55), and (b) thse wh have never been qualified teachers. 4. Natinal service arrangements. 5. Freign labur market (smetimes thrugh develpment assistance agencies). The first three f these surces (1, 2 and a) prduce lng-term fully qualified recruits wh are likely t be ffered permanent appintments. It is prbable that the last three surces (b, 4 and 5) will yield recruits n a temprary basis. 1. Returners. It is pssible t argue that returners are nt new recruits at all, since they may have been n the payrll, r have at least been regarded as full members f the teaching service, during their perid f absence. They are 'returners' t the classrm r schl, nt t the teaching service as a whle. Whilst the number f returners m a y be balanced by new releases, this des nt necessarily fllw. If a large prgramme f further training r retraining f teachers is cming t an end, the number f returners culd exceed new releases by a wide margin. 2. Initial training. This is nrmally thught f as the main surce f supply t the teaching frce. The traditinal pattern f teacher training has cmprised full-time curses f frm ne tfiveyears, starting immediately after cmpletin f general educatin. In sme cuntries new patterns and structures f initial training are nw being experimented with, and these include arrangements fr aspirant teachers t have a perid f service in the schls befre admissin t full-time teacher-training institutins, r smetimes during their curse, r fr sme f the training perid t cnsist f supervised inductin n the jb. As already nted in the discussin f special replacement prgrammes in Chapter III, it shuld als be recgnised that in many cuntries the in-service training f unqualified teachers prvides an internal prmtin rute t qualified teacher status. Fr the purpse f what fllws, hwever, it is assumed that initial teacher training takes the frm f cntinuus full-time pre-service curses. The annual flw f newly qualified teachers frm the teachertraining system t the schls will depend basically n the capacity f the teacher-training institutins as reckned by numbers f student places and the rate at which students pass thrugh these 58

60 The supply f teachers places, as indicated by the average length f curse fr students (utput = capacity/average n. yrs. per student). Table 2 illustrates hw, fr a given capacity f a teacher-training cllege r teacher-training system, utput will be higher if curses are shrter. An institutin with nly -year curses and 60 places can turn ut 120 teachers per year (A). The same number f places fr a 2-year curse will prduce 180 teachers annually (B). If twthirds f the places are given t -year curses and ne-third t 2-year curses, the ptential utput will be 140 teachers (C). By reversing the prprtins n the tw curses, ne btains a rise in Table 2. Effect f variatin f length f curse n level f utput in teacher training. Cllege Length f curses 1st year Enrlments 2nd year rd year Ttal enrlment Annual utput (= final yr. enrlment) A B C D -year 2-year -year 2-year -year 2-year * / 6 is}» S}«2}'» Table. Calculatin f average length f curse per student (based n Table 2). Cllege Ttal student-years t be spent in cllege by presently enrlled students Ttal number f students Average length f curse per student (years) A B C D 60 x 60 x x = 720 \ 120 x 2 = = 240 / ~ x = 540 \ 180 x / ~ 900 = 1080 =

61 Planning teacher demand and supply utput t 150 (D). In ther wrds, utput is inversely related t average length f curse per student. The mdel f teacher-training enrlment shwn in Table 2 assumes n wastage in the teacher-training system. In fact, hwever, there may be wastage f a number f kinds. First, the places prvided may nt be fully utilized because f unwillingness by ptential students t enter teaching. In this case it is nrmally the image f the teaching prfessin itself that is mainly at fault, but recruitment t teacher-training curses can be encuraged by prvisin f schlarships, and by generus training allwances etc. during cllege curses. Secnd, just as the teacher stck itself is liable t attritin, s are chrts f teacher trainees. At least fur types f wastage amng enrlled trainees may be encuntered and must be allwed fr in teacher supply estimates. These are: 1. Drp-ut frm the curse (utput lss); 2. Grade repetitin (utput delay);. Failure n final examinatins (utput lss); and, 4. Failure t enter teaching (utput lss). A mre realistic mdel therefre might lk mre like the ne shwn in Figure 2. Frm this it seems that frm 1,000 teachers admitted in 1980, there will emerge nly 850 in 198 (plus anther 29 via repeating and re-sitting f the examinatin in 1984). This represents a lss f 15 per cent (1 per cent if accunt is taken f successful repeaters). If the bjective is t have 1,000 new teachers (f 1980 vintage) entering service in 198, then in planning ahead allwance must be made fr this lss, at 15 per cent r whatever rate is cnsidered t be mre reasnable (were special factrs at wrk encuraging lss in the perid ?). In fact, mathematical calculatins shw that the intake in 1980 will have t be 1,176 if 1,000 teachers ut f the intake are t enter schls in 198 and if cumulative wastage factrs are assumed t perate at a 15 per cent rate (85 per cent X 1,176 = 1,000). The fate f failures n the final curse examinatin may have quite an imprtant impact n the level f teacher supply. Practice varies frm cuntry t cuntry n this. Sme cuntries allw teachers t repeat in cllege (as shwn in Figure 2). thers allw them t re-sit the examinatin in a private capacity at a later date. Yet thers allw them t enter the teaching frce and re-sit the examinatin at the end f a year's teaching. This last curse has been the practice in Ghana, fr example, where the teacher-training cllege examinatin results have been available nly after the start 60

62 > LU The supply f teachers CI H Z ce 5 = E œ ^ 5 LU E ci Sa vl\ lïl! Q. a> E-D î' -6 5 m s. >e 5f 8 ±1 U L CM I < LU > 00 ce < l w 5 S- - s? «M 5 ce-s's. < = * LU S > Si.Ç s M n 0 ä 5 en en > z 61

63 Planning teacher demand and supply f the next academic year: hence the appearance in the Ghana educatin statistics f a categry f teachers labelled as 'awaiting results', and hence als the need t find rm in the Ghanaian teaching frce fr all cllege cmpleters, sme f whm in the event prve nt t have passed their examinatin. a. Re-entry f qualified teachers. There may be sme re-entry t the prfessin, particularly at times f teacher shrtage, f thse wh have resigned r retired. In sme cultures it is nt unusual fr wmen t resign in rder t devte themselves full-time t lking after their yung children. This is particularly cmmn in scieties where cmmunal living arrangements are such that relatives and friends are nt nrmally available t help with child-minding, r where a netwrk f crèches and nurseries has nt been develped. As the children grw up and enter schl many mthers may reapply t resume wrk full-time r part-time, after an interval f perhaps ten years frm resigning. This phenmenn is negligible in many cuntries f the wrld, where wmen may nt be inclined t withdraw frm teaching when they start their family. But its ptential significance in thers is illustrated by the British case. The Department f Educatin and Science in Britain fresees the pssibility that in the early 1980s re-entrants might accunt fr 10,000-15,000 and new entrants fr 20,000 f the annual recruitment f 0,000-5,000 needed t sustain the teaching frce in England and Wales. b. Recruitment f unqualified persnnel. This slutin is likely t be emplyed n any great scale nly at times f extreme supply shrtage. Many develping cuntries have taken n educated but untrained persnnel t man the expansin f their primary and secndary schl systems. It is nrmally regarded as a makeshift arrangement but has the advantage f cheapness and speed, since unqualified teachers receive mdest reward and are emplyed as sn as recruited. ften, t, cuntries find themselves bliged t drp their insistence n prfessinal qualificatins in the case f scarce subject teachers such as thse f mathematics, science and practical subjects. Mre interest is nw being taken in the use f nn-prfessinal teachers, usually n a part-time basis, fr help in making the curriculum mre practical and relevant. Thus sme gvernments are encuraging the idea that extensin fficers frm agriculture and health shuld give instructin in the schls, and lcal craftsmen are being used fr teaching f practical subjects. 62

64 The supply f teachers The participatin f cmmunity leaders and thers in cultural and mral instructin is als being welcmed in sme cuntries. 4. Natinal service arrangements. In situatins f great teacher shrtage a number f cuntries have impsed an bligatin n mre educated yung peple t teach, as part f their service bligatins t the natin. This has the advantage f mbilising large numbers quickly, withut the necessity t raise teacher remuneratin t perhaps unaffrdable levels in rder t induce peple t serve as teachers. A service bligatin falling n all in a certain categry may als be regarded as mre equitable than selective frms f manpwer allcatin. Examples f servicemen being used in educatin include the Iranian Educatinal Crps, the Nigerian Natinal Yuth Service Crps, and the prpsed new natinal service scheme in Btswana. 1 A rather different scheme was the bligatin impsed under the Ethipian University Service Scheme whereby students at the University in Addis Ababa spent the furth year f their curse in a frm f cmmunity service, ften teaching in the rural areas. Between 1964 and 1974 this Scheme cntributed 2,771 teachers t Ethipia's secndary schls Freign labur market. In sme cuntries at certain histrical perids a large part f teacher supply has cnsisted f nn-natinals. This was true f the beginnings f frmal schls in many Asian and African cuntries which were frequently started by freign missinaries; and in the later pst-independence era the secndaryschl systems f many African cuntries in particular were heavily supprted by expatriate teachers serving under bilateral and multilateral assistance schemes and vlunteer prgrammes. Currently ne f the largest flws f freign teachers is t the Arab cuntries f the Gulf area frm Egypt and ther Mediterranean Arab cuntries. Significant numbers f Indian and Pakistani teachers are serving utside their hme cuntries at secndary and tertiary levels. The disadvantages f using freign teachers, frm a linguistic, cultural and even pssibly frm a scial and plitical pint f view, are well knwn; and they may bring with them the particular dis- 1. Many f these schemes are described in Fussell, D., and Quarmby, A., Studyservice: a survey. ttawa, Internatinal Develpment Research Centre, Habte, Aklilu, 'The public service rle f the University: the Ethipian University Service a service-study experiment', in Higher educatin fr develpment in Africa: African reginal reprt. New Yrk, N.Y., Internatinal Cuncil fr Educatinal Develpment,

65 The supply f teachers advantage f discntinuity. Hwever, as a stp-gap enabling cuntries t buy time while they develp their wn surces f teacher supply, there is bviusly much t cmmend their use, if this is wisely planned. The seriusness f many f the prblems f phasing (discussed n pp ) can be mitigated if verseas teachers are used as a temprary makeweight. The devtin many f these expatriates have brught t their task, and the cultural enrichment they may have intrduced, have been valuable assets t many cuntries. 64

66 V. Balancing teacher supply and demand The review in the last tw chapters f factrs determining demand fr and supply f teachers leads n t cnsideratin f adjustment between the tw. Static and dynamic equilibrium In trying t achieve balance, the planner will strive t ensure nt just a balance at ne particular perid f time in the future, r in ther wrds a static equilibrium, but als the best pssible cntinuing r dynamic equilibrium between supply and demand ver successive years. Achievement f dynamic balance creates few prblems when the size f the teaching frce is prjected t change (in mst circumstances t grw) at a steady rate, with a mre r less cnstant rate f annual teacher wastage. It is much mre prblematical, hwever, when grwth f enrlment is nt expected t be steady, r when there is a special replacement prgramme which will be cmpleted by a particular date. T take thefirstcase, f irregular trends in develpment demand fr teachers, ne can think f several sets f circumstances in which such irregular grwth might ccur. Fr example, plicy decisins t intrduce universal primary educatin, t increase the enrlment rati in secndary educatin, t add a grade t ne f the stages f the system, r t raise the schl leaving age, might all have the effect f unleashing a cnsiderable extra demand fr teachers in a particular schl year, thus creating a discntinuity in the trend f annual requirements fr teachers. A rather sudden acceleratin f utput might have t be planned. 65

67 Planning teacher demand and supply Cnversely there are circumstances in which the ppsite requirement might make itself felt, with a need t scale dwn the rate f teacher utput. A cmparatively cmmn experience in sme f the mre develped cuntries has been a marked fall in the birth rate in the 1960s and 1970s, fllwing a previus rather strng rise. Thus after a perid f substantial enrlment grwth, a phase f decline is nw setting in; and the frecasts f teacher requirements have had t be revised abruptly dwnwards, with painful cnsequences in terms f teachers withut immediate jbs and teachertraining facilities n lnger needed. Given rather lng lead-times fr the planning f new teacher-training institutins, it has nt been unknwn fr facilities t be declared redundant almst as sn as they have been pened. The secnd case, f special replacement prgrammes f limited size and duratin, has been mre cmmn in develping cuntries, many f which have relied n temprary recruits bth unqualified teachers and expatriates t staff the rapid expansin f enrlment. As the shrtage has eased and plans t raise dmestic trained teacher utput have materialized, it has been pssible t set target dates fr replacement f temprary teachers. In such cases the shrt-term rate f flw t make gd the deficit (including replacement f temprary staff) by a certain date will ften be higher than the lngerterm equilibrium rate f flw required t service steady grwth plus attritin requirements. T use an analgy, if I want t escrt my friend's car alng the rad at a speed f 60 km. per hur, but he is already 1 km. ahead f me, I shuld need t travel fr three minutes at 80 km. per hur befre drpping my speed dwn t his. Withut deceleratin, my car either crashes int my friend's r rapidly vertakes it. In the teacher field the equivalent effect f maintaining the rate f teacher utput needed t clse the gap, even after the gap is in fact clsed, is that ne prduces teachers surplus t requirements. But whilst sudden deceleratin is nt difficult in a car, in manpwer prductin it invlves reducing the rate f utput, pssibly by clsing training institutins, and this is n light undertaking when peple's careers and large investments are at stake. Table 4 and Figure illustrate a hypthetical situatin f this kind where, in the face f trained teacher shrtage, the capacity f the teacher-training system has been built up rather rapidly in rder t eliminate untrained teachers within five years. Given current prjectins f demand, recruitment f teachers at 66

68 r-- ^ Tf» f*1 (N <N " Balancing teacher supply and demand S in -H N (N «i r- ***» c- m r- * (»\^tvm u 0 w>n. I/Ï ^ 00 ^r r» ^» 1 ^g in n N --i I I C I -I :8I.in\û"mHHinn^n\^0\0\ _fnr-»^r>r-^h><>»n»n'-ir--tj-r--trics^nr»r- 00< irtm(sn^^in\h-t*"mft NNN\\S 0\0\0\S\\0\\\0NC\\0\N\0\ 111 QZ Cfl P Ö * B l S 67

69 Planning teacher demand and supply Ttal supply Ttal demand NTE Fr illustrative purpses an extreme case f a 'crash' replacement prgramme ver a five year perid has been taken, with teacher supply raised frm 700 p.a. t 2,000 p.a. in a single year. A much smther fit between the demand and supply curves culd have been achieved by expansin f supply t say 1,600 p.a. with a lnger replacement perid. FIGURE. Prblems f keeping teacher supply and demand in balance in face f replacement prgrammes (graphical representatin f data in Table 4). 68

70 Balancing teacher supply and demand present levels will be excessive ver a ten-year perid after the untrained teachers are eliminated. A better balance wuld have been struck by expanding teacher supply capacity mre gradually and allwing a lnger perid fr the replacement f the untrained. In recgnizing the necessity in certain circumstances f reducing the level f teacher utput, sme particularly difficult prblems arise frm the fact f lng lead- and lag-times in the supply f trained teachers. Thus it may well be necessary t start shutting dwn teacher-training capacity when there are still visible shrtages f teachers in the schls. This kind f decisin is difficult t explain t the public, and helps t explain why the plicy decisin t reduce teacher utput has smetimes been unduly deferred. Uncertainty and the need fr flexibility In the examples and illustratins given in the previus sectin, it might be thught that with careful fresight and skilful prgramming a cntinuing balance between supply and demand might have been achieved and maintained. After all, majr changes inducing significant increases in the demand fr educatin, r the timing f replacement f unqualified teachers, shuld be under the cntrl f the plicy-maker. Even a shift in fertility trends, whilst nt amenable t his direct cntrl r influence, des affrd cnsiderable advance warning befre extra r fewer babies grw up t becme mre r fewer schl pupils requiring additinal teachers. True as all this is, and whilst there have been many examples f teacher supply/demand imbalance due t faulty planning, it is by n means pssible fr even the mst skilful planner t predict each and every eventuality affecting teacher demand. There are t many majr ccurrences and trends utside the cntrl f gvernments themselves, let alne the educatinal planners. Wh culd fresee majr natural disasters, the failure f the main exprt crp, the tripling f il prices, r the clsure f the Suez Canal? Events f this magnitude may seriusly weaken the capacity f a gvernment t sustain ecnmic and educatinal expansin. It is nt nly the unexpected cataclysmic event in the pliticecnmic sphere that may upset the frecasts f the educatinal planner. There may als be less dramatic intensificatin r reversal f relevant scial trends such as migratin r fertility, prpensity fr pupils t enter, stay n in, r drp ut f schl, enrlment in 69

71 Planning teacher demand and supply private schls, examinatin pass rates and s n. The resignatin and re-entry rates f teachers themselves are clearly vital t the planner's equatins, but in few cuntries are the explanatins f the present level f wastage r variatins in the level ver time fully understd. A change f ne r tw percentage pints in the wastage rate applied t the teacher stck represents a difference f very many additinal teachers required r nt required. n e shuld always recgnise that the educatinal planner's prjectins depend as significantly n the assumptins used as n calculatins. The public has the right t expect that the planner's calculatins will be cmputatinally crrect and that the trend infrmatin n which the prjectins are based will be f as high a quality as can realistically be achieved in the cnditins f data availability in the cuntry cncerned. But in the last resrt, even with a valid infrmatin base and cnsiderable cmputatinal skill, the prjectins will be n mre reliable than the assumptins built int them; and these assumptins largely cncern smewhat unpredictable human decisins and behaviur. This suggests that certainty is ging t elude the educatinal planner. Rather than attempting t get the demand-supply sums exactly balanced all the time an impssible dream he must plan fr mre than ne pssible future. Therefre, first, his frecasts f teacher demand and supply shuld nt be expressed as singlevalue figures, but shuld rather give a range f pssible values (e.g. a lw, middle and high prjectin) accrding t different stated assumptins. Secnd, cnstant mnitring and adjustment f the frecasts shuld be undertaken. Third, it will be wise t build int the teacher supply system itself ptins which may be exercised speedily in respnse t changing circumstances. T the extent that flexible capacity can be created, ne is mre likely t avid excessive shrtages r surpluses f teachers. What des 'flexible capacity' mean in practical terms? It means prviding teachers versatile enugh t teach, say, bth mathematics and chemistry, and able t switch frm ne t the ther full-time; 'plytechnic' clleges with a range f curses and flexible curse structures which facilitate student transfers between teacher training and ther activities; clleges which can teach either, say, 4-year curses r 2-year curses, r may alternatively be used fr in-service training; cllege buildings which can later if necessary be cnverted t secndary schls, 70

72 Balancing teacher supply and demand r t ther higher-educatin purpses; flexible ages f teacher retirement; ability t draw n expatriate teachers tfill temprary gaps, and s n. This invlves avidance f exclusive cncentratin n lengthy single-purpse specializatin in curses, physical facilities r teachers. The cllege which can serve a secnd purpse, the teacher wh can switch subjects r teach mre than ne, the curse which can prduce a serviceable teacher in ne year, shuld frm a significant part f the resurces available. Where there is the pssibility f tapping reserve capacity it will be wrth while keeping ptins pen and emergency plans in stck (e.g. a register f trained teachers wh might be willing t return part-time r full-time, cntacts with freign and internatinal supply agencies, a knwledge f buildings ptentially available fr emergency training purpses). There is n gainsaying that just as in rdinary life insurance csts mney, s in manpwer planning maintenance fflexibility and rm fr future manœuvre cst mney and sme lss f specialist efficiency in the shrt term. Insurance premiums have t be paid. Since thse respnsible fr teacher planning can neither accurately fresee nr clsely cntrl the future, they will be well advised t devise their wn versin f the insurance plicy. Measures t achieve balance The educatinal planner w h is faced by actual r anticipated surpluses r shrtages f teachers shuld clsely examine the factrs causing the imbalance and cnsider ways in which it may be crrected. As we saw in Chapters III and IV, there are many different determinants f the level f teacher demand, and many different surces f teacher supply. Althugh adjustment f teachertraining utput is ne f the mst direct ways f clsing the gap between supply and demand, it is by n means the nly way. Many ther measures culd be cntemplated, which include fr example the regulatin upwards r dwnwards f schl intake and enrlment, changes in the way teachers are deplyed in schls and in pupil-teacher ratis, changes in the definitin f wh is an acceptable teacher, new plicies in relatin t teacher retentin and lss, different plicies n replacement f temprary teachers and n attractin back f teachers wh have resigned. Even as regards teacher training itself, it is nt just alteratins in the size 71

73 Planning teacher demand and supply f the system that shuld be cnsidered. Fr as was nted in Chapter IV, different flw rates f teacher utput can be btained frm a cllege system f any given size, by adjustment f the average length f curses. At the end f this chapter, n pages 75-79, a listing f the varius areas f pssible actin n the demand and supply f teachers has been attempted. The reader shuld understand that the authr is nt advcating all r any f these measures fr adptin in particular cuntries. They are n mre than pints at which plicies culd be applied in the event f teacher shrtage r surplus. Chices f particular ptins wuld clearly depend n the plitical, ecnmic and scial philsphies and circumstances f each cuntry. Indeed it must be stressed that achievement f demand/supply balance is nly ne bjective f the educatinal planner. This bjective shuld nrmally be subsidiary t the majr gals set by a cuntry fr the educatin system. It may make little sense t achieve a teacher demand/supply balance at the cst f, say, drastically lwering teacher qualificatins and increasing class size, if by s ding ne imperils the prime gal f enabling pupils t learn effectively and well. It shuld be clear frm the abve that the demand/supply balance may in fact be struck at many different levels f demand, reflecting chices abut levels f enrlment and mdes f pupil-teacher classrm interactin: and that the supply target may be achieved by a wide variety f alternative measures in the areas f teacher training, alternative surces f recruitment, teacher wastage, etc. In making its chices f measures t establish demand/supply balance, any gvernment will naturally have regard amngst ther things t plitical sensitivities. In case f teacher shrtage, fr example, it may be that a cut in schl hurs fr pupils r the intrductin f shifts might be unacceptable, whereas an increase in class sizes r emplyment f teachers f lwer qualificatins wuld perhaps excite less public criticism. Similarly, in the event f teacher surplus, it may nt be pssible t clse teachers' clleges r lay ff teachers: career cmmitments t existing persnnel and cncern fr mrale may incline gvernments t seek sfter ptins allwing sme verstaffing, deliberately chsing t run twenty institutins belw capacity instead f twelve at full capacity, and s n. 72

74 Balancing teacher supply and demand Because f the need t hnur cmmitments t persnnel nce emplyed, and the much greater difficulty f laying ff an existing teacher than f hiring a new ne, it seems wise cnsistently t aim smewhat n the lw side in planning teacher supply. A teacher nce emplyed represents an ngingfinancial cmmitment which must be met year after year. Rich cuntries with t many teachers can find ways f dealing with the prblems f absrbing (r laying ff with cmpensatin) t many teachers: but pr cuntries cannt affrd this luxury. It is nearly always pssible n the ther hand t make gd any small shrtfalls with temprary teachers having reasnable levels f general educatin. Mrever, since needs change and knwledge expands and develps, ne needs sufficient 'play' in the teacher frce t allw the recruitment f new kinds f specialists and t alter the balance f the existing stck. If the inflw f new teachers falls t a very lw pint, redistributin f the teaching frce either gegraphically r in terms f subject and ther specialisms becmes difficult and verall management f the teacher frce becmes virtually impssible. 7

75 Planning teacher demand and supply H U ft, W t> 8 H U < Í Si w U hj H Z H U < b < ai < c/ D h-l í u tu s Ü M S '5 tu í W Ü < H í (Z IM J c CU 6Í g ' -Ö 4> í z i«m i Q Z <c S w p z H W í g i S w Q C/ í w S u < w H í fe Q Z < S w Q D c/5 < w 2 C? URE MEAS.a cu cu - S c c - s S; ~H tu Vi G. 1 T W CU 0 C ca >> J u «ft w> sil grade; 1 ' elimin; rten, by lise wer 4 cu í ca I 9 - c cu 8" T a CU :icipantrdi 2 duce len gth/fail t enfrce law strict CU 0Í ca. C ca t>0 b» C = :>, e - 'S 8J J <*H «1-1 " *j. tu g 1 u u 8 M M K i i i & c/ a rates s ca ry ed Vi " t U i 1 c <u u > a U Vi a 2 ty f Re Q ca ical 4 ca tu i 1 C " s C c <u CC] a., "cu 4 e C s ~ CU I 8 «ä a * cu " í.s < l fees pse schi M C dû cd S +2 ca a w 1 1 c ntrl by selecti rbid rbid u fe fe a 'c C 6 - ca <u C u \E g g. i U tu eu U í í i 1 I 1 74

76 Balancing teacher supply and demand a 2 < w age Frbid iscur P T '> rfl C Cd LH fi.2 2? ft 2 ts.> S e ft.s C cs a i> 8S a III LH LH LH LH eses r s ; icrease mit, b few 1 1 a ü ^ LH a ' S 8 ïll a> XI LH Ja u es u Is &P.SË 8 Ï 5-S C IH «-» 4> 00 " s <A >> cs T ej c*-i "" "cs X >, 60 X 4> CJ - ta M CS LH -» T) cs - S g Ö,2 c PQ LH reqi trail CD es cs LH c CA U LH 8" < S a í LH U c«lh "" c pe ura rage CÂ CA ft X CJ CA T a CS Exp: fr appl ers X CJ cs "*-* d) CA X CJ cs 2 8> ene cu CA LH ü XI 7j es ers X H-» CA CÁ" C _ 1 ts. Cl her a pplic C«. -C (A en g.r 22 C 5 ce c S2 TJ ft ft cs B CA C CS CS LH S X S S.22 J T U 1 a es T tten ati: CS u art-t dult edu luil H I 1 < i 1 S\ S? _<s hnl ÇJ catin - hl ts CA cías «4-H S ä 2 Ave hurs per LH &> X <J es C4-H H-» ft TS efl 8 js u X 'ft CU c es e-9 8 X " LH «l-ss cj Sssa II cs 1 rs -S.8 I cs /-*. ^ cs ^ - te ^ es ">.2 e 2 a X i i CA ft 1 LH CL> X cs H +! Cfl <U I en G 1.2 '-i-» ' - en - -S: cj «S 'S» s; 75

77 Planning teacher demand and supply H U W ÜH w CZ5 W U *H H U < H AT w > I u I I -J ÛH D J Û- D u JS u cs u b.g ' -a < Pi m <C H Pi as C/5 Ä u cs <u 00 c '5 TD U CM Ü te M s H W CM 5 E/ t» m i J PH PH t/5 e u S u 4 T C 1 SP* e u es u 0 C 4) «.9»S +* M " a ** A *.9 S S» I I I n> S 8? S i-, g c, t 5 PH Q ' c I a.s > T a tí 1 I l-h I c -s u 8.2 _ S.«e c CS 'S I 00 B 8 T <U b «S u H U ';r> -2 U Û en U 4Ï 1 00.a ja "5 _ -.e SP 8 C c 55.8 Ä Ä çs Q i: <u J2 fill I 'S h-1 H ü < CM < w < í ttj U < W H b a, PH D C/ 8 lis 1 a Ü S 2 ~». "».? -- s - "S S >> CS q> q> CS 5- S ai Pi ^ ^ cs 4 <u, c a 9b * 5 a 'c a ea. G C cs c «9 1 8 b G >> S ~ 1 'S G u c 42 CS >> b G 'S ' b.s G ' 76

78 Balancing teacher supply and demand G a a a G u si* - y Ö Z W u J cd U ki, G 60 c«"- kl - S S 8 d> CA wq > kl CA >> kl i5 T es = G. - Natinal - Service a i i 60 a is cd h 1 U kl -k» ci G c TS 5t _ ^ ÇA Ö expand a> (G i^ cd a" c C-l -»-» placemen u.1 j U 60 cd kl 60 cd kl G W < -5 a 60 " D. 60 " > G U U VU.s CA S pand X wt lege ^ u g Bui ne Cnv trai t/> chei cd B gs t _G rg X Ö.G kl U S S '» «> G z tí cd S G a ö il J 60 G 'S Ut.55 T 'X -S.s is X % t-i cd 1.t; xi en çd CA U cd tí u u 'S cd D. u Ö U s'il S" G ÇA > _ G cd g -S k, PH X S.9 1 a cd p, U echnic, ransfer G i* CA C WS 60 8 M G -S * G 'S 5 ' S i 1 s ë (A CA ki u u X CA.u,^i tun b C CD G S ' u cd cd S> a> >> CA U, ce «e ' G & C/ ci 2 ~s CA 'S g.s cd 2»-H cd. 60 G Ü S" jd a 60 ' **.S a 2 "S ~ 'ed - ± 2 * «J " ES: CA D M S Ë 8 "S Q C. CD g e "E" fa u CA G kl «* 4 U Sá -S rt <" 00 T?.s.. T U CA CJ *á ti K C <u S s's G- cet Si " " G X e» >. Ä C g c & S«= x jj.s«k, g.2 0 «. 60 cd.s.5 M «^ G 2 ' fe G k f g» s i-s -IS g S *" X ag «a * -a * S'5 -fcj k e c«.a 1 «S.ss ±s "5. «u ca SS lu 77

79 Planning teacher demand and supply H U W W VI m u 6 S Si vi w > < H 1/5 D H-l H tí vi Ö JS u cd +j b g 'u u u tí <: H tí s t/ u C +-» b.g 'u a tí B a «u '> B fl.i. cu.s «- 'C CA, 'II. 8 H J* i S <: ^ tí <S tí! B < T B a > cä #-T c Is 1-8 t/ CA b b B S B C «2 8 s - tu ß T «1-1 tri u 'S V * a t> 8.Ö S.2 b «I C.H S 0 «H j,. a u CA 'S ' s S ts g> _r - '»_ % «> S " -S $ "-* SÍ5 "^ «S.«S B Ü ^ û «.S g. " d) w n <D D " '= Ä? " H tí Q 8 H 8 g 2 > *-» P b " w -. * B a> 8 T II U CU > B CA 8 5 cs, fi b B H B 2 a ^ ts <D S e ~ ej<;j< B w «*-( B 2 tf SP J> ni 6 SI U C I I H tí < I I Ct-H J *» 00 B b B art- H -M C ö B 4> 8 S ui rain H u ca T stan a ssi e < 78

80 cs a 1 >«a G ale c èssi se/raise prf 60 cs ur isc T5 itins se recruitmen i ö cs á! a Ö «M C <L> E rvice cu CA nal ict issue t use nati ing í CJ Q S ''.S perm rk de (refuse w u Q, i ^H s ai Balancing teacher supply and demand if s ( 1 S G S fess pr sduce CA e 0 Uj 5 rve duii pi suc Rem ve/n quali íficatii Recr uitar f se rvice i J CS 22 Ul t*-. a G ilabl rvice :ly ava nal se e free nati 1 «,2 2ó 60 ta dily Facil Grant rea firs 1» qualified - Definiti G ' >>.a a ment - Recruiti 1 ees t teach vice teachers C»H S QCA ary li inal - Tempi litary/nat 'S :hers ment freign qua- C4 1 itin reign teac - Recruit - Recgn 1 ificatins 79

81 VI. Planning fr a differentiated teacher frce The discussin f teacher demand and supply has s far been in terms f the ttal teacher frce and verall teacher-pupil ratis. If teachers and teaching jbs were cmpletely undifferentiated, it wuld be satisfactry t wrk at this aggregate level, fr teachers wuld be infinitely substitutable fr each ther. In fact, hwever, teaching jbs are t sme extent differentiated and many f them can be perfrmed nly by teachers with certain characteristics. The market fr teachers is nt ne unified market, but a cllectin f partially self-cntained smaller markets. Fr example, in sme cuntries it is nt acceptable fr girls t be taught by male teachers; and in these circumstances it is bviusly necessary t calculate demand and supply separately fr males and females. Again, if primary educatin may be taught thrugh different media f instructin, it is imprtant that there be demand/supply balance f teachers in each f the main language grups. In India a Hindi-speaking teacher may nt be able t take classes in Bengali, nr in Ethipia may a Galla teacher be able t take classes in Amharic. In ther wrds, what ne may very easily find is that an verall demand-supply balance cnceals sme severe imbalances in respect f particular types f teacher. Demand and supply f subject teachers The mst bvius way in which the teacher market is subdivided is in terms f teaching subjects at secndary and higher levels. At the higher levels f the educatin system, knwledge and skills are rather specialised and the individual teacher's expertise is nrmally 80

82 Planning fr a differentiated teacher frce limited t ne r tw subjects. In many cuntries an verall surplus f teachers in fact represents an excess f humanities and scial science teachers and cnceals a serius shrtage f mathematics, science and language teachers. Hw can demand and supply f teachers be calculated n a subject basis? n the demand side, it is necessary t break dwn ttal demand int subject categries. Table 5 illustrates hw this may be dne, starting frm typical curricula in different types f educatinal institutin and their embdiment in a weekly timetable. This enables ne t calculate the prprtin f ttal time allcated t each curriculum specialism and s t arrive at the staffing requirements f a mdel schl f standard size. ne can use this infrmatin in cnjunctin with plans fr future schl develpment t estimate the number f full-time-equivalent teachers needed fr each area f the schl curriculum. It may well be that the cuntry cncerned has different types f secndary schl theretically inclined academic secndary schls n the ne hand and practically biased secndary technical r secndary cmmercial schls n the ther. The individual subject cmpnents f the curriculum may vary between these types. In such a case gvernment develpment plans fr the different types f secndary schl will have t be cnsulted in rder that teacher needs can be reckned fr each. These requirements can then be ttalled t prduce stcks f, say, mathematics and language teachers needed at successive future dates. This can be cnverted int flw prjectins fr the different subject grups f teachers, taking int accunt the existing and prjected supply. Such in brad utline is the apprach t be fllwed in calculating needs fr subject teachers, but a number f ptential difficulties ught t be mentined. (i) A minrity f cuntries have n prescribed timetable with subject allcatins applying t all schls; rather it is left t the discretin f each schl t decide its schl subject fferings (e.g., in England and Wales). Even where the curriculum is centrally prescribed, there may be prvisin fr ptins (languages, practical subjects etc.) the chice amng which may vary between schls accrding t their lcatin and facilities. Therefre it will ften be necessary t make a survey f actual curricular practice, and the distributin f ptinal subjects, as the basis fr cnstructing a typical curriculum t be used in frecasting subject teacher needs. 81

83 Planning teacher demand and supply c f c * * Sí V * I-i. 8 c u a ^ ' «ni ** 4> E 5 0 J u W» 82 1/1 " 0 J S >> u. 0 «d 0 0 < Wí "c 14 0 u H.2 0 J u >, 0 s 1 g "c i. u a V 0 ÍN < 41 jfító WM P m m m fflt; m vi *n vi n M " «M tn <n "n rntn' 'Q<^wiTtmd v ó ^^PIHimfNíNíN \TfnN>riFHrt^ ^ x Ö D S 10 Ö s \ «^t >n «H > «in <N r^ in t n w - ï t N ^ i N Tj-^^DX^ffn^-M'-in^^'i >n n n»-< in i-i-^tnr^' * i i-t TJ- m 1 ^ * s \ (N Ö m t H Ö ^ 00 <N \ m m <N \ ' 00 T^ *n»n r- r*- ^û n c\»û in n r K N ^ n d d n T j - d d Ó d d ^ ^ t (N^Ûrt w ^ 00 a) cd cd 00 C 00 ce c - H cd c i S ÍÍ- s '5? + r«i ^H 01 L-i Cd =fi-s t» + S «= 5.1 1!lIïiî!!ÎÎ! È II II î!!: Sis* S: fil«ili & K-2 lî s il II

84 Planning fr a differentiated teacher frce (ii) Even where the subject allcatin fr individual streams r types f schl has been laid dwn, the distributin f students between the different streams may be uncertain, either because this is left t student chice, r because natinal targets fr the distributin f students cannt be implemented. The failure f many cuntries t achieve their annunced intentins t increase the prprtin f students in science and technlgy is well-knwn. In part this is undubtedly due t difficulties n the supply side, particularly teacher shrtage; but in sme cuntries it als reflects student preferences and student perfrmance in science. The realism f the plans fr distributin f students by subject specialisms needs therefre t be clsely examined, and the pssibility f shrtfalls allwed fr. (iii) There is the prblem f anticipating curriculum change. Scilgy r ecnmics r cmputing wuld nt have appeared n schl timetables twenty years ag, whereas nw they are nt uncmmn. (iv) When the aggregate demand fr the teaching f a subject is cnverted int numbers f individual teachers, a number f awkward distributinal prblems arise, in the case f minrity subjects, frm the fact that many schls are small and scattered. This makes it difficult fr such schls t keep a teacher f a minr subject busy n a full-time basis, unless that teacher als handles ther subjects. Suppse, fr example, that music is taught fr ne perid per week (ut f 40) t all secndary-schl pupils. Using the methd f calculatin suggested abve, a secndaryschl system with 00 schls and 6,000 teachers culd be reckned t need 150 full-time teachers (i.e. ne-frtieth) fr music. Hwever, the average requirement fr each schl is fr half a full-time teacher f music (00 schls, 150 full-time teachers). Yet each f the 00 schls needs sme teaching f music if the standard curriculum is t be applied unifrmly everywhere. The actual distributin might be n the lines shwn in Table 6. In the example given in Table 6 it is clear that the 00 schls need nly 150 full-time equivalent teachers f music, but because f the distributin f schls, even allwing fr the sharing f part-time teachers, this will require 250 individuals able t teach music (80 full-time, 110 half-time and 60 quarter-time). If in this example part-time emplyment f teachers was nt permitted, 8

85 Planning teacher demand and supply Table 6. Illustrative data n staffing schls in minr subjects. Average n. teachers per schl Ttal music teachers Schl size (number) Ttal Music (1/40) FTE 1 Individuals Large Large-medium Small-medium Small (20) (10) (10) (140) i i fi J /4 full lad (2 sch)2 half lad halflad(2sch)2 quarter lad Ttal (00) FTE = full-time-equivalent teacher. 2. These teachers wuld make up their teaching lad by wrking at tw neighburing schls fr part f the week each. tw-thirds (170 ut f 250) f the music teachers wuld have t teach ther subjects as well. (v) There may nt in all cases be an exact crrespndence n a ne-t-ne basis between the subject f a teacher's training and the subject he is teaching in the classrm. There may be n special ptin in the teacher-training system crrespnding t sme subjects n the schl timetable (such as civics, fr example?) and these subjects will naturally have t be taught by teachers with ther specialisms. Secnd, even where apprpriate curses d exist, abslute shrtages f trained teachers in sme subject areas frce teachers t g utside their specialism. Third, pr distributin f teachers between schls (due perhaps t inefficient psting by the authrities) may frce a teacher t teach subjects ther than his wn, because trained teachers f his subject are already n the staff f the institutin t which he has been assigned. T meet these prblems, sme cuntries have intrduced the requirement that teachers specialise during their training in mre than ne subject. This practice helps t meet the prblem f staffing minrity subjects (as discussed abve), and prvides much needed flexibility in the deplyment f 84

86 Planning fr a differentiated teacher frce teachers; but it des f curse intrduce ambiguities int the classificatin f teachers by subject as a basis fr planning teacher supply. (vi) In view f the abve, it becmes very imprtant in estimating subject teacher demand and supply t knw hw teachers are actually used, and the extent t which actual supply (actual teaching assignment) represents ptential supply (subjects f training). In a subject-based system the teacher trained in Chinese wh is actually being asked t take mathematics classes shuld prperly be treated as an unqualified teacher f mathematics, and represents 'wastage' frm the trained cadre f Chinese teachers. Gegraphical distributin f teachers A secnd cmmn type f imbalance is gegraphical, either interreginal r inter-schl, with sme areas and schls being shrt f teachers verall, r f particular kinds f teachers, even thugh there may be balance between demand and supply at natinal level. The lcal imbalance may arise frm purely histrical factrs thse regins where expansin f educatin started late, but is nw prceeding rapidly, may have fewer well-qualified and experienced teachers. If such areas happen als t be physically inaccessible, climatically unattractive r set apart culturally frm the rest f the cuntry, such prblems may persist ver a lng perid. The lng-term slutin, bearing in mind that peple are generally mre willing t wrk in their wn hme areas, may be t establish teacher-training facilities lcally, and t reserve places in these fr lcal students. It may be necessary t d this n a discriminatry basis, psitively favuring lcal students against better-qualified utsiders; fr therwise the places will be taken by students wh have n intentin f serving in schls in the vicinity f the cllege after their graduatin. Very prbably it will als be necessary, at least temprarily, t bnd students at these clleges t a perid f service in the lcality, since even students native t the area may be attracted by emplyment pprtunities elsewhere. Even in the lnger term, hwever, such measures may nt be sufficient and it may prve necessary t supplement them by plicies 85

87 Planning teacher demand and supply designed t channel already trained teachers frm ppular areas int less advantaged regins and schls. This may be dne by directin, r by a system f incentives, r by a cmbinatin f the tw. A system f directin may impse n teachers the bligatin t serve wherever they are psted, and t transfer between psts nly with fficial authrisatin. Such systems may create a gd deal f resentment unless there are built-in safeguards t limit the time that any individual teacher has t serve in difficult psts and t ensure that the burden f hardship pstings is equally shared. It als tends t cncentrate enrmus pwer in the hands f the bureaucracy respnsible fr pstings: cnnectins and influence becme imprtant, and accusatins f imprper influence and crruptin may berife.if, alternatively, a system f incentives is used, teachers are allwed t apply fr psts, but thefinancial and ther rewards attaching t the pst influence their chice. Designated psts may, fr example, attract special 'hardship allwances' in cash r amenities in kind, such as free husing and transprt. The rewards may nt necessarily be immediate it may be that service in a designated pst can be used as a prerequisite fr prmtin, r may accelerate ne's entitlement t prmtin. Whichever system is used, directin r incentive, it is essential fr fair distributin f teachers that sme staff establishment frmula fr schls be instituted, with built-in mechanisms fr ensuring equity between schls. The staff establishment frmula shuld specify nt nly ttal numbers f teaching psts but als numbers f senir psts (headmaster, deputy headmaster, head f department, etc.), fr schls f each type and size. If pay is attached t these psts rather than t the persn f the teacher, this will cntribute t the mre equitable distributin f teachers. Thus even a highly qualified teacher wuld be able t draw an attractive salary nly if hefilleda senir pst; and the availability f unfilled senir psts in remte areas, whilst nly junir psts were available in the capital city, wuld help t draw teachers away frm the mre ppular t the less ppular lcatins. If teachers can always draw exactly the same salary in their present pst in the twn as by mving t the cuntryside there is little incentive fr them t mve. Payment fr respnsibility rather than qualificatins als has anther, even mre imprtant, advantage. It helps t limit the pace f cst inflatin in educatin. This is because the rati f senir psts t ttal psts can be administratively cntrlled ver the lng 86

88 Planning fr a differentiated teacher frce term much mre easily than the prprtin f better-educated teachers in the ttal teaching frce. If, hwever, level f qualificatin is t be the main criterin used infixingteacher pay, ne apprach t ensuring fair teacher distributin is t impse a quta n the prprtin f better qualified teachers that any ne district r schl may emply. The authrities might fr example stipulate that nt mre than three-quarters f any schl's staff may be trained, r that nt mre than half the trained teachers are t be university graduates. 87

89 VII. Making teacher prjectins in practice n reaching the end f this vlume, many practising planners will perhaps be lking fr mre specific guidance n the steps they shuld take t calculate future teacher requirements and teacher supply. Althugh, as stated in the Intrductin, this is nt a manual n making prjectins, it may be useful t cnsider briefly hw a practising educatinal planner might cnstruct a teacher 'balance sheet' highlighting fr his cuntry's plicy-makers the present and future teacher demand and supply situatin, and pinting t sme f the plicy ptins available. A purely illustrative calculatin fr an imaginary cuntry facing a teacher shrtage is presented in Table 7. The teacher mdel it cntains is perhaps the simplest ne can imagine, being fr a unifrm type f primary schl, having nly ne categry f qualified teacher. The basic data requirements t draw up a table f this kind are really very simple. The fllwing steps are required in cmpiling it (the numbers belw crrespnd t the numbered steps in the table). 1. Enrlment prjectins The actual level f enrlments will be knwn either fr the current year r, if such recent data are nt yet available, prbably fr last year r the year befre last. Enrlment in future years is largely predetermined by current enrlments as affected by attritin. The tw majr assumptins that have t be made cncern (i) the level f future enrlments at Grade 1 a relatively easy calculatin if cmpulsry educatin is in frce with a fixed age f entry and if repeating is insignificant, but mre prblematical therwise, and 88

90 Making teacher prjectins in practice (ii) changes in wastage rates affecting present enrlments and future intakes. Bth intake levels and wastage will be subject t a cmbinatin f factrs, sme within gvernment cntrl and subject t plicy decisins, and thers nt. The prjectins must take accunt f gvernment plicies fr the future, as already annunced r in the pipeline. If gvernment has n settled plans r plicies, it may be necessary simply t extraplate past trends. 2. Pupil-teacher ratis nce enrlment figures have been prjected, the required number f teachers can be calculated by applying a pupil-teacher rati. In Chapter III we saw that the pupil-teacher rati is a deceptively simple expressin f what may be extremely cmplex practices f teacher use. The planner nrmally has at his dispsal, r can easily calculate, the trend f the pupil-teacher rati in recent years, and may decide simply t prject these int the future. In s ding he will bear in mind the extent t which urbanisatin may make higher pupil-teacher ratis feasible; and cnversely the cntrary pssibility that extending schling t ever mre remte rural cmmunities wuld have the ppsite effect. In ther wrds unchanged plicies in respect f teacher use will have varying effects n the pupilteacher rati accrding t trends in ppulatin density and schl sizes. The planner will als take int accunt gvernment plicy n teacher use. Any intentin t alter teacher lads, class sizes r pupil hurs will require adjustment f the rati, and f staffing nrms fr schls.. Ttal demand The ttal requirement (stck) fr teachers at successive, future dates can easily be btained by dividing the figure fr pupils per teacher int anticipated future enrlment. 4. Stck f acceptable teachers The definitin f 'acceptable teacher' will vary frm cuntry t cuntry. In the example, it is assumed that prfessinally qualified natinals are all acceptable, but thers nt: in the illustratin nly 60 per cent f teachers are regarded as acceptable in the base year. The natinal educatin statistics, r teacher service recrds, shuld give an accurate picture f the current teacher frce and the numbers wh are qualified natinals. In future years the stck is calculated by adding net flws t previus stcks. 89

91 Planning teacher demand and supply -. i^ ^ m i *n s -. M ig Tf- m «m <* 00 \D rn * CN en en CN 00 S f» TI 22 <N 1 1»n * >n (S N in ^" s CN s Q s * CN i "Í CN m ri -{- m + " ^- en S CN CN CN CN CN - +CN + " -. Cl CN c-- i M CN CN >n s r-»ri CN *-i in en s * >n CN en -*t i as S en CN < In CN r- «_i_ + " <J- r- S 00 Tt»l en «<* as m CN "" in ^- in in r~ u c cd ", a CA ct c C 1 1 cd H 90 CN I. 1» 'S 2 G men iti ema Ô hfl U U Ut CHI» U Ä J fl cd cd CJ ü V "1 ^ s Ö 1 as 5 g S CL, PH H Q-;, CN S 11Ü Uli Uli il II IIIfifi îîllî ^rr «n in s»n en -< s i s cd «e net f re-entry) w qualified entra cllege utput wastag b. add ne i. new " * rem qualifiers upply in cur i. in-service al teacher s s' V Balanc 1(-6) dby: rtfall :vere f sh< rtfall c Size Sh r~ ' ear p quali ears«ed lified aining (1 yi ers nt yet icemen (2-y ers qualifi s in ti teach CN in cn r^ en it r-^ -* 00 *^ ers unqua :1 serv teach teach II as psts ed tea acant " chers (resid intrain TAL) *-> c.s ** -~ EH **-I '5*«-H '5 > a «S s S ed X> ci T c l-h 5

92 Making teacher prjectins in practice cñ -rt v^ r»" 91

93 Planning teacher demand and supply 5. (a) Net wastage In a system with fully cmprehensive educatin statistics it is pssible t cnstruct a cmplete flw mdel in respect f the teacher frce f the kind illustrated in Table 8. Unfrtunately, hwever, the nly data n teacher flws that are regularly kept by the authrities in many cuntries are thse n inflw frm initial teacher training, and even here the data are fr cllege utputs rather than fr intake t the prfessin (i.e. there is ften n recrd f the number f newly trained teachers wh actually take up their assignments). Infrmatin shuld be available frm persnnel recrds f the number wh die, retire r resign; but unless there is a regular system fr retrieving this infrmatin, it may never be analysed and presented in statistical publicatins. In cnsequence, in their educatinal planning very many cuntries find themselves having t reduce inflws and utflws t just tw categries, f which ne is 'new utput frm the clleges', while the ther is a catch-all item 'net wastage'. 'Net wastage' cvers grss utflws f all kinds less returners and re-entrants. The rate f net wastage is nt difficult t calculate if ne has reliable data n successive years' qualified teacher stcks and n new intake f freshly trained teachers t the system. ne can then reckn that: Net wastage rate (per cent) = Last year's stck + new intake this year's stck Last year's stck x 100 Taking figures fr 1979 and 1980 frm Table 7, and applying the frmula, the net wastage rate wuld be x 100 = x 100 = 2.41 per cent. The net wastage rate prjected fr years after 1980 in Table 7 is per cent, but there will be cuntries where apprpriate figures wuld be much higher than this, and in ther cases lwer. It shuld be nted that prjectins f net wastage rates are difficult t make and very hable t errr. This is because the net wastage rate is a cmpsite figure cvering a variety f different inflws and utflws. T prject the net wastage rate withut knwing the size and directin f change f its cnstituent parts can result in seriusly wrng frecasts. 92

94 Making teacher prjectins in practice Table 8. Teacher flws: an illustratin fr qualified public primary system teachers Stck 1979 utflw Type f teacher flw Inl flw 1980 Stck Death Retirement Resignatin/re-entry ther jbs marriage/dmestic migratin abrad Dismissal Mves within educatin administrative wrk teaching ther levels (secndary, nursery, etc.) private sectr teaching Temprary transfers In-service training and retraining study leave maternity, sick leave -secndment ther wrk (incl. abrad) New prductin cllege initial training resitting initial training examinatin qualifying thrugh upgrading 15 curse (=8546) = The stck f teachers in 1980 cnsists f: 8546 (89%) retained frm (2%) re-entrants f varius kinds 884 ( 9%) newly qualified 959 (100%) ttal Grss wastage n the 1979 teacher stck (f 8924 teachers) is shwn t be 78 (4.2%). Net wastage n the 1979 teacher stck is 78 minus 16 re-entrants, i.e. 215 (2.4%). Grwth f (net additin t) the teacher stck between 1979 and 1980 is equal t new utput (884) less net wastage (215), that is 669 teachers. 9

95 Planning teacher demand and supply 5. (b) New qualified entrants These will be f tw kinds: thse wh enter the teaching frce as newly qualified teachers, and thers in systems where such prvisin is made wh as unqualified teachers gain qualified status thrugh curses taken while n the jb. As already indicated, recrds f cllege utput are nrmally available, but nt f actual entrants t the teaching service. Numbers btaining qualified status by in-service rutes (r by re-sitting cllege examinatins having previusly failed) m a y nt be regularly reprted. Fr accurate frecasting such infrmatin is needed. 6. Ttal teacher supply This in fact represents ttal acceptable teachers. 7. Shrtfall/surplus This represents the excess f demand ver the supply f acceptable teachers. 8. Measures t cver shrtfall/surplus The gap (a shrtage in this instance) is in fact the gap between demand and supply f acceptable teachers. The gap will nt generally be allwed t appear as vacant teaching psts: usually sme temprary stp-gap arrangements, invlving the use f substitutes t clse the gap, will be entered int. The mst cmmn are the emplyment f underqualified natinal teachers, the use f teachers frm abrad, r resrt t temprary schemes f natinal service. If the gap between supply and demand was in fact a surplus f supply, the items against heading n. 8 wuld be a schedule f ways f absrbing the surplus. These might include verstaffing f schls abve the target teacher-pupil rati, secndment f teachers t ther jbs r ther cuntries, and a large pl f teachers n in-service curses, r teacher unemplyment. It shuld be nted that the gap is defined here by reference t a particular target pupil-teacher rati. Teachers wh are 'surplus' n the basis f this rati, might well be making an imprtant educatinal cntributin in the schls thrugh remedial and small grup teaching. They wuld be truly 'surplus' in every sense f the term nly if their presence added nthing t the educatinal services being prvided in the schls. Similarly a 'shrtage' shwn by reference t the target rati culd be visible in terms f untaught 94

96 Making teacher prjectins in practice classes r partially disguised at schl level by heavier teaching lads. In ther wrds shrtage and surplus as defined in relatin t targets f utput (enrlment) and target pupil-teacher ratis d nt reflect the accmmdatins that may be made in the schls themselves. 95

97 VIII. Cnclusin n reaching the end f this vlume the reader shuld have acquired a brad understanding f the underlying factrs determining teacher supply and demand, and the way in which they may be calculated. He will understand the imprtance f trying t maintain a cntinuing balance between demand and supply, and shuld be aware f the wide range f influences and plicy measures that may be brught t bear n securing that balance. He will realize that planning f teacher supply shuld invlve far mre than determining annual intakes t the training-cllege system; in additin t the wide range f alternative surces f recruitment that can be tapped, the factrs affecting the retentin and utilizatin f teachers will be just as central t the planner's cncerns. The reader will als appreciate the vital imprtance f maintainingflexibilityin the teacher supply system with a capacity t adjust t rapidly changing situatins. Understanding is a necessary basis fr actin, but what shuld a gvernmental authrity at natinal, prvincial r district level d t be in better cntrl f its teacher supply situatin? Tw essential initial steps can be suggested. Thefirstprerequisite fr effective planning is t set in rder the system f cllecting, recrding and analysing data n the current teacher frce, and n mvements within, int and ut f that teacher frce. Unless there is an adequate data base in respect f teacher stcks and flws, attempts t plan will be futile. As a start details f the cmpsitin f the teacher stck shuld be refined, fr if this is cllected each year a cmparisn f the annual stck figures will already yield clues abut inflws and utflws. But as sn as it is feasible the stck figures frm annual schl statistical returns 96