Sea level rise and coastal morphological changes on tropical islands New Caledonia and French Polynesia (South Pacific)
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1 Manuel Garcin, Marissa Yates, Goneri Le Cozannet, Patrice Walker, Vincent Donato Sea level rise and coastal morphological changes on tropical islands New Caledonia and French Polynesia (South Pacific)
2 The Project Work completed within the CECILE project (Coastal Environmental Changes: Impact of sea LEvel rise )=> See Poster Le Cozannet et al. same session Project objectives: to contribute to assessing the physical impact of sea level rise on shorelines during the recent past (last 50 years) and near future (next 100 years). Focus on tropical islands : New Caledonia, French Polynesia, La Réunion (Indian Ocean), French Caribbean What is the importance of recent sea level rise with respect to other causes of change? What will be the consequences of sea level rise for coastal change in the future?
3 Generic driving factors influencing coastline mobility, dynamics and morphology Sea Level Change, winds, storms, pluviometry... Climate change Coastline mobility is an indicator integrating numerous parameters Biological Pluviometry Erosion, accretion, transport... External Coastline mobility Internal Tectonic, vertical movements, isostasy... Anthropogenic actions and impacts Sea defences, gravels extraction, mining, daming... 5 families of driving factors affecting coastline mobility Climate change External geodynamic linked to climate change Internal geodynamic Biological Anthropogenic actions and impacts To note : interactions & retroactions
4 Driving factors Or The data problem GARCIN M., YATES M., LE COZANNET G., WALKER P., DONATO V. (EGU 2011) Sea level rise and coastal morphological
5 Erosion, accretion, transport... Pluviometry External Sea Level Change, winds, storms, pluviometry... Biological Climate change Coastline mobility Tectonic, vertical movements, isostasy... Anthropogenic actions and impacts Sea defences, gravels extraction, mining, Climate change Internal daming... Erica 2003 (Nasa) Spatial variability of sea level rise heterogeneous at the global scale but also at the scale of each ocean basin Spatial variability of CC impacts on : winds, storms and cyclones (frequency, intensity, trajectories), high level of uncertainty for future evolution Sea surface temperature (SST), salinity and acidity (ph) effects on ecosystems and more particularly on coral reef systems
6 Erosion, accretion, transport... Pluviometry External Sea Level Change, winds, storms, pluviometry... Climate change Biological Coastline mobility Internal Tectonic, vertical movements, isostasy... Anthropogenic actions and impacts Sea defences, gravels extraction, mining, daming... Surficial geodynamical Coastal geodynamical variability of the impact of CC on wave climates in consequence, variability of the littoral drift, the coastal behavior at a specific shoreline can be modified Tontouta, New Caledonia, 2009 Surficial geodynamical on land that can be modified by Climate Change The surficial erosion in the watersheds, the triggering of the landslides, the sedimentary transport in the rivers The modifications of on land can influence the sedimentary supply at the coast (sedimentary budget at coast), the ongoing can change the mobility of the coastline But uncertainties in the evolution of rainfall in the CC context
7 Erosion, accretion, transport... Pluviometry External Sea Level Change, winds, storms, pluviometry... Biological Climate change Coastline mobility Anthropogenic actions and impacts Tectonic, vertical movements, isostasy... Internal Sea defences, gravels extraction, mining, daming... The internal geodynamical The internal can be of primary importance for coastline mobility. Vertical movements generated by both tectonics or isostasy or cooling of volcanoes can counteract, compensate or amplify the local sea level change. Vertical movements are not necessarily homogeneous for large territories => site dependent
8 Erosion, accretion, transport... External Pluviometry Sea Level Change, winds, storms, pluviometry... Climate change Biological Coastline mobility Internal Tectonic, vertical movements, isostasy... Anthropogenic actions and impacts Sea defences, gravels extraction, mining, daming... Anthropogenic actions with direct and indirect impacts on the shoreline mobility Actions with direct impacts Sea defense works including (groynes, sea walls, rip rap beach nourishments, embankments etc.) Actions with indirect impacts Gravel and sand extraction (from the sea floor, from rivers) River hydraulic works like damming (sediment trapping, lack of sediment supply to the coast by rivers) Mining activities in the watersheds (supplementary sediment supply) Modification of the land use (erosion ) ; Ground subsidence (exploitation of petroleum or water) Urbanization and pollution GARCIN M., YATES M., LE COZANNET G., WALKER P., DONATO V. (EGU 2011) Sea level rise and coastal morphological Anse Vata, Nouméa (New Caledonia) Huahine, French Polynesia
9 Remarks about driving factors & coastal geomorphology The variability of the forcing factors in itself can explain why the coastline mobility is not homogeneous everywhere and why it will not be homogeneous in the next 100 years The same forcing factors applied in various geological & geomorphological contexts : different effects each type of coastal geomorphology has a different resilience and coping capacity Analysis of the past evolution of each type of coast to climate changes can give some keys to understanding the future
10 The question is what is the Sensitivity of coastlines to SLR? Method systemic analysis => identification of active forcing factors for each site Reconstruction of past evolution of the forcing factors sea level rise, vertical movements, anthropogenic actions etc. Classical analysis of coastline evolution (Comparison between aerial photos (from the 50 s) with recent HiRes satellite images => evolution of coastline Analysis of the causal effects for the system Numerous Uncertainties => SLR, quantifications of others forcing factors, complex system
11 Preliminary results on 2 test sites in South Pacific New Caledonia (several test sites) Data from SHOM, DITTT, DIMENC and the government of New Caledonia 2 atolls in French Polynesia (Scilly et Manihi) Data from SAU, part of the government of French Polynesia
12 Recent SLR at the scale of the South Pacific (1950 >2002) Global sea level is rising but shows regional variability (e.g. Lombard et al. 2005) => need to perform a regional reanalysis in order to assess the recent trends in the areas of interest The climate component of sea level rise can be reconstructed using global ocean modeling and tide gauge records (Becker et al., submitted) overthepast50 years Results obtained show that : Becker et al., submitted French Polynesia is affected by about 2mm/yr of sea level rise for the 52 year period from 1950 to 2002 New Caledonia is affected by about 1.3mm/yr sea level rise for the 52 year period from 1950 to 2002 GARCIN M., YATES M., LE COZANNET G., WALKER P., DONATO V. (EGU 2011) Sea level rise and coastal morphological
13 French Polynesia examples Work in progress on 2 atolls : Manihi in the Tuamotu archipelago (27x 8 km) Scilly in the Society archipelago (13x 13 km) Scilly Manihi
14 Manihi Reef atoll on volcanoes of relatively small size Relatively simple geological history Relatively homogeneous coastal morphologies Direct anthropogenic impacts (embankment, sand extraction) No influence of continental Atoll m. Garcin (2011) GARCIN M., YATES M., LE COZANNET G., WALKER P., DONATO V. (EGU 2011) Sea level rise and coastal morphological
15 Erosion, accretion, transport... External Pluviometry Sea Level Change, winds, Biological Atoll coastal system storms, pluviometry... Climate change Coastline mobility Anthropogenic actions and impacts Systemic causal graph Tectonic, vertical movements, isostasy... Sea defences, gravels extraction, mining, Internal daming... Climate change Cyclones / tropical storms intensity or frequence Lagoonal wave climate, hydrodynamics Sea defense, dykes, embankments... Wind Barrier reef accomodation Coastal lagoonward erosion OffshoreWave climate Bioclastic sand from reef erosion Sedimentary budget Coastline mobility SST, acidity, salinity Sea level Sand extraction Relative Topography Vertical movements (tectonic, thermal, isostatic...)
16 Changes in surface area of islands ( , Manihi) Motu 3 Motu 2 Motu Net change Eroded areas New surfaces m m m m m m m m m 2 Motu 1 GARCIN M., YATES M., LE COZANNET G., WALKER P., DONATO V. (EGU 2011) Sea level rise and coastal morphological
17 Erosion & accretion rates Coastline evolution ( , Manihi) Motu 3 Motu 2 Seaward Lagoonward Motu Erosion % Average rate Erosion % Average rate 1 48% m/y 20% 0.66 m/y 2 18% m/y 25% 0.27 m/y 3 2% m/y 53% m/y GARCIN M., YATES M., LE COZANNET G., WALKER P., DONATO V. (EGU 2011) Sea level rise and coastal morphological Motu 1
18 Coastline Motu 3 evolution Motu 2 Seaward Lagoonward Motu Erosion % Average rate Erosion % Average rate 1 48% m/y 20% 0.66 m/y 2 18% m/y 25% 0.27 m/y 3 2% m/y 53% m/y Surface areas changes are linked to anthropogenic impacts (airport, habour structures ) Motu 1
19 Preliminary results For the 3 motu The 40 yr evolution shows an increase in the surface area of the islands But Aggradation is mainly linked to anthropogenic actions that alter the perception of the general evolution of each island Currently, we have no evidence of the impact of past (recent) sea level rise, which seems to be hidden by anthropogenic effects. Future work will focus on islands and atolls without anthropogenic actions in order to analyze the natural response Then the results of the coastline evolution will be discussed taking into account the forcing factors (slr, both seasonal and cyclonic wave climates, and tectonics)
20 Mountainous island (400x50km) Complex geological history Various coastal morphologies Large lagoon with distant barrier reef Influence of continental Anthropogenic impact due to mining activities Minimal local urbanization New Caledonia m. Garcin (2011) GARCIN M., YATES M., LE COZANNET G., WALKER P., DONATO V. (EGU 2011) Sea level rise and coastal morphological
21 Pluviometry Erosion, accretion, transport... External coastal system of New Sea Level Change, winds, storms, pluviometry... Biological Caledonia Climate change Coastline mobility Anthropogenic actions and impacts Internal Tectonic, vertical movements, isostasy... Sea defences, gravels extraction, mining, daming... Systemic causal graph Mining activities Gravel extraction Climate change Erosion, landslides Rivers solid discharge Sedimentary budget at the coast Cyclones / tropical storms intensity or frequence Rainfall Rivers discharge Wind Sea defense, dykes... OffshoreWave climate Lagoonal wave climate Coastal erosion Coastline mobility SST, acidity, salinity Sea level Barrier reef accomodation Relative Topography Vertical movements (tectonic, thermal, isostatic...) GARCIN M., YATES M., LE COZANNET G., WALKER P., DONATO V. (EGU 2011) Sea level rise and coastal morphological
22 The Tontouta example Mountainous watershed of 500 km 2 Homogeneous lithology: Peridotite Huge mining activities since the 60 s (Nickel) => surficial erosion of mining areas Mining trash in the slopes until the mid 70 s => supply of sediment in the watersheds Gravel and sand extraction in the downstream river mainly since the 90 s => extraction of sediment of specific granulometry Vertical movement negligible Sea level rise around 2mm/ years
23 Indirect anthropogenic impacts on coastal areas: modifications of river solid discharges Upstream Material production (Mining trash in watershed) Downstream Material extraction (Sand and gravels) Modification of the sedimentary budget at the coastline + -? impact on the coastline? Tonnage cumulé Tonnage par année (From M.Garcin 2009) Cumul (m3) Volume extraction (m3) (From M.Garcin 2009)
24 Provisional results Major morphological changes between 1954 and 2003, main streams pattern changes. Progradation of the front of the delta from 1954 to 2009 of around 200m (progradation of fine lateritic deposits) Apparition of silty deposit in the lower estuary of the Tontouta river Increasing of tidal surfaces from 1954 to 2003 and from 2003 to Progradation seaward up to 250 m but generally between 50 and 100m Indirect impact of human activities seems to be the major forcing factor of recent evolution
25 Preliminary results Indirect impacts of human activities seem to be the major forcing factor of recent evolution near the Tontouta outlet Currently, we have no evidence of the impact of past (recent) sea level rise which seems to be hidden by anthropogenic effects Other sites with and without mining activities and in different New Caledonian environments and contexts will be studied in order to analyze the potential impacts of SLR
26 Conclusion Sea Level Rise Non homogeneous response of the coastline Function of numerous forcing factors Need to assess the SLR impact on various sites in order to analyse the coastal sensitivity Coastal sensitivity to SLR analysis will provide keys for the assessment of potential future effects of SLR with respect to others forcing factors Work in progress!
27 Thanks! Huahine, 2006 This communication is supported by the French National Agency for Research (ANR) within its Planetary Environmental Changes (CEP) framework. We thank the French Polynesia Government (SAU) and the New Caledonia Government (DIMENC, DITTT) for providing data. GARCIN M., YATES M., LE COZANNET G., WALKER P., DONATO V. (EGU 2011) Sea level rise and coastal morphological
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