San Andreas and Other Fault Sources; Background Source
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1 1 San Andreas and Other Fault Sources; Background Source SSC TI Team Evaluation Steve Thompson Diablo Canyon SSHAC Level 3 PSHA Workshop #3 Feedback to Technical Integration Team on Preliminary Models March 25-27, 2014 San Luis Obispo, CA PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study
2 2 Overview of the Preliminary SSC Model SSC Elements: Key Fault Sources San Andreas and Other Regional Fault Sources Background Source
3 3 San Andreas and Other Fault Sources San Andreas Fault Other 200-Mile Site Region Faults Goal: Capture maximum contribution of SAF Goals: Complete SSC within 200-mi Site Region Confirm past results about contribution of other faults
4 4 San Andreas Fault Approach: Approximate UCERF3 Characterization Ten Sections in 200-mi Matched a composite Participation MFD Overestimates UCERF3 Solution
5 5 San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD: P SC CR Pf Ch Cz BB MN MS (SB) i = M 7.0, RRRR TTTTT M = RRRR i (M) 9 i=1
6 6 San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD: P SC CR Pf Ch Cz BB MN MS (SB) i = k = < M 7.5, RRRR TTTTT M = RRRR k (M) 5 k=1
7 7 San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD: P SC CR Pf Ch Cz BB MN MS (SB) i = k = n = M > 7.5, RRRR TTTTT M = RRRR n (M) 3 n=1
8 San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD: Ch P MS P CR Ch BB MS P SC CR Pf Ch Cz BB MN MS (SB) 8 i = k = n = M 7.0, RRRR TTTTT M = RRRR i (M) i= < M 7.5, RRRR TTTTT M = RRRR k (M) k=1 3 M > 7.5, RRRR TTTTT M = RRRR n (M) n=1
9 San Andreas Fault Source Composite Participation MFD: 9 1.E+00 Target MFD Annual Rate of Exceedance (yr -1 ) 1.E-01 1.E-02 1.E-03 1.E-04 1.E-05 Composite SAF for DCPP Cholame Participation UCERF3.3 1.E Magnitude (M)
10 10 San Andreas and Other Fault Sources San Andreas Fault Other 200-Mile Site Region Faults Goal: Capture maximum contribution of SAF Goals: Complete SSC within 200-mi Site Region Confirm past results about contribution of Other faults
11 11 Other Faults Other Faults within the 200-Mile Site Region UCERF3.3, Fault model 3.2 Additional offshore faults from LTSP
12 12 Other Faults Index of Detailed Maps of Other Faults within the 200-Mile Site Region
13 13 Other Faults Other Site Region Faults, Detail Greater San Francisco Bay Area
14 14 Other Faults Other Site Region Faults, Detail Central California Coast Ranges
15 15 Other Faults Other Site Region Faults, Detail Southern Coast Ranges and Western Transverse Ranges
16 16 Other Faults Other Site Region Faults, Detail Southern Sierra Nevada and Mojave Areas
17 17 Other Faults Other Site Region Faults, Detail Transverse Ranges, L.A. Basin, and California Borderlands Areas
18 18 Other Faults Geometry UCERF3.3, Fault Model 3.2 Added: Santa Lucia Bank fault; Queenie, Lompoc, and Purisima structures (from LTSP) Removed: Hosgri, San Gregorio, Los Osos, Shoreline, San Luis Bay, San Luis Range; San Andreas fault
19 Other Faults: Source Characterization Logic Tree, UCERF3 faults 19 Geometry Sense of Slip Slip Rate Slip Rate Weighting Scheme (following UCERF3.3) UCERF3.3 FM 3.2 [1.0] UCERF3.3 Apx. B [1.0] UCERF3.3 (Weighted Mean Target Rate) [1.0] FM 3.2 [0.5] Geologic [0.3] Zeng [0.3] NeoKinema [0.3] ABM FM 3.1 [0.1] [0.5]
20 Other Faults: Source Characterization Logic Tree, LTSP offshore faults 20 Fault Source (Primary Reference) Dip and Sense of slip Slip Rate Santa Lucia Bank (Miller and Meltzer, 1999) Queenie (Clark et al., 1991) Purisima, Lompoc (Willingham et al., 2013) 45 NE, RL-R [1.0] 40 NE, R [1.0] 40 NE, R [1.0] 1 mm/yr* [1.0] 0.1 mm/yr* [1.0] 0.1 mm/yr [1.0] Assumed Equivalent to Queenie SSC *Rounded up from cited or estimated rate
21 Other Faults: Source Characterization Logic Tree (cont.) 21 Magnitude PDF Mchar Mmax Mchar weighting scheme YC85 Magnitude- Fault Area (weighted) Mchar HB02 (~ Log A + 4) [1.0] [1.0] [0.5] EB (Log A + 4.2) [0.5]
22 22 Background source Poorly resolved sources of seismicity Undefined faults Goals: Complete SSC within 200-mi Site Region Confirm past results about contribution of Background source
23 23 Background source Approach: Use historical seismicity rate, G-R distribution Be conservative include seismicity associated with on fault sources Consider alternative characterizations: UCERF2 gridded seismicity UCERF3 gridded seismicity PG&E catalog, areal zonation Felser catalog, areal zonation
24 24 Background source UCERF2 gridded seismicity Mmax ~7.0
25 25 Diablo Canyon SSHAC Level 3 Study Thank You PG&E DCPP SSHAC Study
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