Updated MCE R & MCE G Ground Motions in 2015 NEHRP Provisions (& ASCE/SEI 7-16)

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1 Updated MCE R & MCE G Ground Motions in 2015 NEHRP Provisions (& ASCE/SEI 7-16) EERI 2016 Seminar ASCE Geotechnical on Next Generation & Structural Engineering Attenuation Congress Models Nicolas Luco Research Structural Engineer, USGS (Golden, CO) BSSC PUC Design Mapping Issue Team ( IT-11 ) (Bachman, Crouse, Harris, Hooper, Kircher, Caldwell)

2 ASCE/SEI 7-10 Recent Changes to Peak Ground Accelerations in the ASCE/SEI 7 Standard, N. Luco (USGS) February 15, 2016

3 ASCE/SEI 7-10 FIGURE 22-7 MAXIMUM CONSIDERED EARTHQUAKE GEOMETRIC MEAN (MCE G ) PGA, SITE CLASS B Recent Changes to Peak Ground Accelerations in the ASCE/SEI 7 Standard, N. Luco (USGS) February 15, 2016

4 Outline of this presentation Updates to MCE R (& MCE G ) maps for conterminous US for 2015 NEHRP Provisions (and ASCE 7-16) Comparisons with values from ASCE 7-10 Comparisons with previous editions of ASCE 7-05 and ASCE 7-02/7-98 Impacts on Seismic Design Categories Updates to MCE R (& MCE G ) maps for Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa Summary

5 Reasons for Updated Design Maps 1) 2014 USGS National Seismic Hazard Model (including NGA- West2, UCERF3, CEUS-SSC) 2) Fragility curve β = 0.8 β = 0.6, for consistency with the sitespecific ground motion chapter (Ch. 21) of ASCE 7-10 P [ Collapse SA = a ] β = 0.8 β = Spectral Acceleration (1.0 sec), a [g]

6 USGS Hazard Model Updates Project Name Lead(s) Duration Sponsors Central & Eastern US Seismic Source Characterization for Nuclear Facilities (CEUS-SSC) Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3 (UCERF3) Next Generation Attenuation Relations for Western US, Version 2 (NGA-West2) Consultants USGS, CGS, SCEC (WGCEP) PEER US DOE, EPRI, US NRC CEA CEA, Caltrans, PG&E Others listed in Chapter 22 Commentary and explained in December 2015 Special Issue of Earthquake Spectra journal American Society of EERI Civil Seminar Engineers on 7-16 Next Standard Generation (ASCE Attenuation 7-16) Main Models Committee Webinar Proposed seismic maps for the conterminous United States, N. Luco, USGS et al September 17, 2015

7 Fragility β=0.8 β=0.6 Update For 2009 NEHRP Provisions MCE R ground motions & sitespecific ground motion chapter (Ch. 21), the BSSC Seismic Design Procedures Reassessment Group settled on β = 0.8 For 2010 ASCE 7 Standard Ch. 21 (but not MCE R maps), the Seismic Subcommittee (SSC) Ad-Hoc Ground Motion Committee updated to β = 0.6, based on

8 Changes at 34 High-Risk Locations Region Northern California Southern California City and Location of Site County or Metropolitan Statistical Area Name Latitude Longitude Name Population Los Angeles Century City Northridge Los Angeles 9,948,081 Long Beach Irvine Orange 3,002,048 Riverside Riverside 2,026,803 San Bernardino San Bernardino 1,999,332 San Luis Obispo San Luis Obispo 257,005 San Diego San Diego 2,941,454 Santa Barbara Santa Barbara 400,335 Ventura Ventura 799,720 Total Population - S. California 22,349,098 Population - 8 Counties 21,374,778 Oakland Alameda 1,502,759 Concord Contra Costa 955,810 Monterey Monterey 421,333 Sacramento Sacramento 1,233,449 San Francisco San Francisco 776,733 San Mateo San Mateo 741,444 San Jose Santa Clara 1,802,328 Santa Cruz Santa Cruz 275,359 Vallejo Solano 423,473 Santa Rosa Sonoma 489,290 Total Population - N. California 14,108,451 Population - 10 Counties 8,621,978

9 Changes at 34 High-Risk Locations Region Pacific Northwest CEUS Other WUS City and Location of Site County or Metropolitan Statistical Area Name Latitude Longitude Name Population Seattle King WA 1,826,732 Tacoma Pierce WA 766,878 Everett Snohomish WA 669,887 Portland Portland Metro OR (3) 1,523,690 Total Population - OR and WA 10,096,556 Population - 6 Counties 4,787,187 Salt Lake City Salt Lake UT 978,701 Boise Ada/Canyon ID (2) 532,337 Reno Washoe NV 396,428 Las Vegas Clarke NV 1,777,539 Total Population - ID/UT/NV 6,512,057 Population - 5 Counties 3,685,005 St. Louis St. Louis MSA (16) 2,786,728 Memphis Memphis MSA (8) 1,269,108 Charleston Charleston MSA (3) 603,178 Chicago Chicago MSA (7) 9,505,748 New York New York MSA (23) 18,747,320 Total Population - MO/TN/SC/IL/NY 48,340,918 Population - 57 Counties 32,912,082

10 34 City Locations from 2009 Provisions

11 Changes in MCE R & MCE G Values Proposed ASCE 7-10 Ground Motion S S (MCE R ) S 1 (MCE R ) PGA (MCE G ) Irvine San Diego Santa Barbara Las Vegas Charleston Southern California Northern California PacNW IMW CEUS City Location #

12 Underlying Components of S S and S 1 As laid out in the 2009 NEHRP Provisions (& Ch. 21) S S = min( C RS S SUH, S SD ) S 1 = min( C R1 S 1UH, S 1D )

13 Changes in USGS Uniform-Hazard Values 1.8 Proposed ASCE 7-10 Ground Motion S SUH S 1UH "PGA UH " San Diego Santa Barbara Las Vegas Southern California Northern California PacNW IMW CEUS City Location #

14 Changes at Las Vegas Location In ASCE 7-10 maps, rate of earthquakes on Eglington fault is ~1/14,000yrs. Based on recent publications (references in depolo et al, 2013), Nevada Bureau of Mines & Geology recommended, in effect, a rate of ~1/600yrs. Through additional communication with USGS, all agreed on ~1/2,100yrs.

15 Changes at Santa Barbara Location ASCE 7-10 maps are based on UCERF2 in California. UCERF3 includes more multi-fault earthquakes (like 2011 M7.2 El Mayor- Cucapah), in part to remove UCERF2 over-prediction of M6.5-7 earthquakes. This, in effect, lowers rate of earthquakes that dominate hazard in Santa Barbara. ASCE 7-10 maps are based on NGA-West1 for Western U.S. crustal earthquakes. NGA-West2 includes recent data from 2009 M6.3 L Aquila, 2008 M7.9 Wenchuan & 5 other earthquakes on dipping faults, as well as 130,000 ground motion simulations. The effect was to decrease best estimates of ground motions over reverse faults near Santa Barbara.

16 Commentary on Additional Changes 2016 ASCE Geotechnical &EERI Structural Congress: Course on Models 2015 NEHRP Provisions SeminarEngineering on Next Generation Attenuation Updated MCER and MCEG Ground Motions in 2015 NEHRP Provisions, N. Luco (USGS) et al February 14, 2016

17 Changes in Risk Coefficients 1.8 Proposed ASCE 7-10 Risk Coefficient C RS C R1 Southern California Northern California PacNW IMW CEUS City Location #

18 Changes in Deterministic Values 1.8 Proposed ASCE 7-10 Ground Motion S SD S 1D "PGA D " Southern California Northern California PacNW IMW CEUS City Location #

19 Deterministic Earthquakes UCERF3 includes multi-fault ruptures (M8+), in part to remove UCERF2 overprediction of M6.5-7 earthquakes.

20 Deterministic Earthquakes UCERF3 also includes low-activity-rate faults, e.g.,

21 Deterministic Earthquakes From ASCE 7-10 site-specific ground motion chapter (Ch. 21): For 2015 NEHRP Provisions, characteristic earthquakes from UCERF2 (& ASCE 7-10) have been updated and used in lieu of UCERF3 multi-fault ruptures, and Active faults have been defined as those with Holocene (last ~12K years) displacement/slip, or with slip rate > 0.1 mm/year. All other faults have been excluded.

22 Previous Changes in MCE (R) Values ASCE 7-10 ASCE 7-05, S S ASCE 7-10 ASCE 7-05, S 1 ASCE 7-05 ASCE 7-98, S S ASCE 7-05 ASCE 7-98, S 1 Ground Motion Ratio Southern California Northern California PacNW IMW CEUS City Location #

23 Precision vs. Uncertainty Santa Barbara Ventura Spectral Response Acceleration, g S S S 1 Spectral Response Acceleration, g S S S ASCE 7 Edition ASCE 7 Edition

24 Precision vs. Uncertainty

25 Changes in Seismic Design Categories Seismic Design Category (SDC) A B C D Default Site Class E

26 EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models

27 Changes in Seismic Design Categories SDC changes B C C B Default Site Class

28 EERI Seminar on Next Generation Attenuation Models

29 Changes in Seismic Design Categories SDC changes D E E D Default Site Class

30 Deeper Explanations of Changes

31 Guam & Tutuila in ASCE COSMOS Technical Session: EERI Current Seminar Ground-Motion on Next Generation Design Attenuation Value Maps Models Issues & Proposed Solutions New Design Ground Motions in 2015 NEHRP Provisions, N. Luco (USGS) & IT-11 November 13, 2015

32 USGS Hazard Model for Guam 2015 COSMOS Technical Session: EERI Current Seminar Ground-Motion on Next Generation Design Attenuation Value Maps Models Issues & Proposed Solutions New Design Ground Motions in 2015 NEHRP Provisions, N. Luco (USGS) & IT-11 November 13, 2015

33 USGS Hazard Model for Tutuila 2015 COSMOS Technical Session: EERI Current Seminar Ground-Motion on Next Generation Design Attenuation Value Maps Models Issues & Proposed Solutions New Design Ground Motions in 2015 NEHRP Provisions, N. Luco (USGS) & IT-11 November 13, 2015

34 MCE R Maps for 2015 Provisions Northern Mariana Islands. S S = 176%g Northern Mariana Islands. S 1 = 44%g Guam S S = 287%g Second Spectral Response Acceleration (5% of Critical Damping) Guam. S 1 = 72%g Second Spectral Response Acceleration (5% of Critical Damping) Miles Kilometers 2015 COSMOS Technical Session: EERI Current Seminar Ground-Motion on Next Generation Design Attenuation Value Maps Models Issues & Proposed Solutions New Design Ground Motions in 2015 NEHRP Provisions, N. Luco (USGS) & IT-11 November 13, 2015

35 MCE R Maps for 2015 Provisions Swains Island Swains Island American Samoa 4 American Samoa Tutuila 35 Aunu'u Ofu Olosega Ta'u Rose Atoll 14 Tutuila. S S = 40%g. S 1 = 15%g Aunu'u 15 Ofu 15 Olosega Ta'u Rose Atoll Second Spectral Response Acceleration (5% of Critical Damping) Second Spectral Response Acceleration (5% of Critical Damping) COSMOS Technical Session: EERI Current Seminar Ground-Motion on Next Generation Design Attenuation Value Maps Models Issues & Proposed Solutions New Design Ground Motions in 2015 NEHRP Provisions, N. Luco (USGS) & IT-11 November 13, 2015

36 2015 Provisions Ch. 22 Commentary In comparing the MCE R ground motion maps derived from these USGS hazard models to the geographically-constant values stipulated for Guam and American Samoa (Tutuila) in the 2010 and previous editions of ASCE/SEI 7, it is important to bear in mind that the latter were not computed via seismic hazard modeling. According to the commentary of the 1997 Provisions, the geographically-constant values were merely conversions, via rough approximations, from values on the 1994 Provisions maps that had been in use for nearly 20 years. As such, they did not take into account the 1993 Guam earthquake that was the largest ever recorded in the region and caused considerable damage, the 2009 earthquake near American Samoa that caused a tsunami, nor the 2008 Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) and another 2006 empirical ground motion prediction equation that have now been used for both Guam/NMI and American Samoa COSMOS Technical Session: EERI Current Seminar Ground-Motion on Next Generation Design Attenuation Value Maps Models Issues & Proposed Solutions New Design Ground Motions in 2015 NEHRP Provisions, N. Luco (USGS) & IT-11 November 13, 2015

37 Summary Conterminous US updates include (i) 2014 USGS NSHM, (ii) β=0.6, and (iii) definition of active faults for deterministic ground motions. Amongst 34 high-risk locations, 9/10-ths of design map changes are within +/-20%, 2/3-rds are within +/-10%. Most of the >20% changes are due to significant USGS hazard model updates. Seismic Design Categories change in relatively small areas, mostly at relatively low-risk locations. Uncertainty in design ground motions desired for perspective.

38 Updated Design Maps Web Tool

39 Risk-Targeted Ground Motion Calculator

40 Bonus Slides

41 Changes in Seismic Design Categories

42 Changes in Seismic Design Categories SDC changes Site Class B B C C B

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