Splay Fault Considerations
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1 Splay Fault Considerations Katie Wooddell 24 October 2013
2 SPLAY FAULT SCENARIOS: THIN CASE: (W=15 km) 9 Scenarios 32 Realizations per Scenario 3 Methods 87 Stations 75,168 Seismograms THICK CASE: (W=22 km, Short Length) 3 Scenarios (Hosgri and San Simeon) 32 Realizations per Scenario 3 Methods 87 Stations 25,056 Seismograms THICK2 CASE: (W=22 km, Full Length) 2 Scenarios (Hosgri Only) 32 Realizations per Scenario 3 Methods 87 Stations 16,704 Seismograms
3 SPLAY FAULT SCENARIOS: THIN CASE: (W=15 km) 9 Scenarios 32 Realizations per Scenario 3 Methods 87 Stations 75,168 Seismograms THICK CASE: (W=22 km, Short Length) 3 Scenarios (Hosgri and San Simeon) 32 Realizations per Scenario 3 Methods 87 Stations 25,056 Seismograms THICK2 CASE: (W=22 km, Full Length) 2 Scenarios (Hosgri Only) 32 Realizations per Scenario 3 Methods 87 Stations 16,704 Seismograms
4 Combining Time Series (Hosgri + Los Osos) Dist = 13.1 km LOS OSOS Vs = 3000 m/s t SHIFT = 5.5 sec HOSGRI
5 t SHIFT ~ 4.1 sec t SHIFT ~ 5.5 sec t SHIFT ~ 8.1 sec HOSGRI + LOS OSOS
6 Combining Time Series (Hosgri + Shoreline) Dist = km SHORELINE HOSGRI Vs = 3000 m/s t SHIFT = 13.2 sec
7 t SHIFT ~ 9.7 sec t SHIFT ~ 13.2 sec t SHIFT ~ 19.4 sec HOSGRI + SHORELINE
8 Different Methods Method 1 Response spectrum computed at the closest point (using that segment s dip, rake, distance, and magnitude) for each fault (ex. Hosgri and Shoreline) SRSS the two segments: Method 2 Weighted average of all segments and the magnitude from the combined rupture, used to compute the response spectrum at the closest point Segment Length Width Area Rake Dip Strike Hosgri SLB Method
9 Different Methods Method 3 Weighted average using 1/R 2 for dip and rake computed along discretized points of all fault segments. Response spectrum computed at the closest point using weighted dip and rake. Magnitude from combined rupture. Method 4 Response spectrum computed at the closest point (using that segment s dip, rake, distance) Magnitude calculated from the total area. Method 5 Simulations
10 HOSGRI + SAN LUIS BAY Method 1: Closest Pt. Hosgri: M7.2, Dip 90, Rake 180 SLB: M6.4, Dip 70, Rake 90 Method 2: Weighted Avg. Weighted Ave: M7.4, Dip 87, Rake 167
11 HOSGRI + SAN LUIS BAY Method 3: Weighted Avg. (1/R 2) M7.4, Dip 77, Rake 121 Method 4: Combined M7.4, Dip 70, Rake 90
12 HOSGRI + SAN LUIS BAY Method 5: Simulations
13
14 Compares against Method 2
15 HOSGRI + SHORELINE Method 1: Closest Pt. Hosgri: M7.2, Dip 90, Rake 180 SL: M6.6, Dip 90, Rake 180 Method 2: Weighted Avg. Weighted Ave: M7.5, Dip 90, Rake 180
16 HOSGRI + SHORELINE Method 3: Weighted Avg. (1/R 2 ) M7.5, Dip 90, Rake 180 Method 4: Combined M7.5, Dip 90, Rake 180
17 HOSGRI + SHORELINE Method 5: Simulations
18
19 Compares against Method 2
20 HOSGRI + LOS OSOS Method 1: Closest Pt. Hosgri: M7.2, Dip 90, Rake 180 LO: M7.0, Dip 60, Rake 90 Method 2: Weighted Avg. Weighted Ave: M7.6, Dip 79, Rake 146
21 HOSGRI + LOS OSOS Method 3: Weighted Avg. (1/R 2 ) M7.6, Dip 75, Rake 134 Method 4: Combined M7.6, Dip 90, Rake 180
22 HOSGRI + LOS OSOS Method 5: Simulations
23
24 Compares using Method 2
25 Changes To GM at 10-4 P(Splay) = 10% P(Splay) = 100% P(Splay) = 10% P(Splay) = 100% P(Splay) = 10% P(Splay) = 100% HOSGRI + SAN LUIS BAY PGA 5 Hz 1 Hz 0.5 Hz 1.7% 1.3% 0.4% -0.7% 14.8% 12.0% 3.9% -8.0% HOSGRI + LOS OSOS PGA 5 Hz 1 Hz 0.5 Hz 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 1.6% 19.9% 19.3% 21.4% 14.5% HOSGRI + SHORELINE PGA 5 Hz 1 Hz 0.5 Hz 0.2% 0.2% -0.13% -1.3% 1.6% 1.8% -1.3% -14.3%
26 SPLAY FAULT SCENARIOS: THIN CASE: (W=15 km) 9 Scenarios 32 Realizations per Scenario 3 Methods 87 Stations 75,168 Seismograms THICK CASE: (W=22 km, Short Length) 3 Scenarios (Hosgri and San Simeon) 32 Realizations per Scenario 3 Methods 87 Stations 25,056 Seismograms THICK2 CASE: (W=22 km, Full Length) 2 Scenarios (Hosgri Only) 32 Realizations per Scenario 3 Methods 87 Stations 16,704 Seismograms
27
28 Seismic Source Characterization Parameters THIN CASE (FROM GEOLOGICAL INVESTIGATION) L = 198 km M W = 7.47 San Gregorio San Simeon Hosgri Summing Individual Segments: Mo = E+27 dyne-cm From Total Rupture Area: Mo = E+27 dyne-cm Seismogenic Crust = 15 km Dip = 90 (all segments) W = 15 L = 107 km M W = 7.21
29 JOINING SPLAY AND COMPLEX RUPTURES Interface Issue: Platform designed for single, planar fault ruptures Various ways to link faults, each implying something different about the physics of how linked faults rupture
30 Splay Fault Discussion Topics Guidance for Forward Modeling Splay Ruptures: Width? Combining TS data? Consider time delays? Partitioning moment on fault segments How to model rupture (rupture generator)? asdf
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