Climate Change Impacts to Glacier National Park and other mountainous areas. Daniel B. Fagre Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
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1 Climate Change Impacts to Glacier National Park and other mountainous areas Daniel B. Fagre Northern Rocky Mountain Science Center
2 Eh?
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6 Photo by Karl Birkeland/ FS NAC
7 Emphases of Program Trends in ecosystem responses Underlying processes of ecosystem change Modeling of dynamics to project future
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13 Grinnell Lake and Grinnell Glacier, 1910 Photo by Kiser, courtesy GNP Archives
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16 Grinnell Glacier from Mt. Gould 1938 Hileman photo/ GNP Archives 1981 Key/ USGS photo 1998 Fagre/ USGS photo 2005 Reardon/ USGS photo
17 Sperry Glacier
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23 5 Years of Melting Agassiz Agassiz Old Sun Old Sun Blackfoot Blackfoot Rainbow Rainbow Chaney Chaney Red Eagle Red Eagle
24 Glacier Factoids 150 in 1850 to 27 or less in 2006 Less than 28% of the glacier area remains Less than 10% of the glacier volume remains Glaciers continue to disintegrate and melt
25 Sperry Glacier, August, B. Reardon/ USGS photo
26 How much snow accumulates each winter? Snow depth measurements 0 7+m deep Sperry Glacier. June 24, Photos by Blasé Reardon and Dan Fagre.
27 How much mass accumulates each winter? 560kg/m 3 avg. density SWE Sperry Glacier. June 25, Dan Fagre photo.
28 How much mass melts each summer? Ablation stakes Huecke Portable Ice Drill, courtesy Joel Harper UM Dept. of Geology
29 5.1m avg. height loss 9cm/ day rate in snow 4cm/ day rate in ice.5-1.7m ice loss Sperry Glacier, Aug. 8, John Newton photo
30 How fast does Sperry flow? How deep is it? Partnership w/um Geology Dept. (Prof. Joel Harper & students) Velocity (GPS) 3-5cm/day3 Ice depth (10mHz radar) Basic research into mass flux questions Bed surface Joel Brown Photo
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38 Aquatic invertebrate species distribution in response to stream temperature Minimal glacial runoff Present glacial runoff Hydropsyche cockerelli Arctopsyche grandis Parapsyche elsis
39 Three fish species from Glacier National Park, MT USA Native species Westslope cutthroat trout (Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi) Non-native species Brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) Rainbow trout (Oncorhyncus mykiss)
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45 Pacific Basin Influences PDO Warm Phase PDO Cool Phase The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) El-Nino-like pattern of climate variability year cycles North Pacific Phenomenon
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49 Climate Fluctuations Methods Modern instrumentation Climate sensitive tree rings
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51 Glacier NP Summer Drought LIA Glac. Max s Dust Bowl
52 Summer Drought & Glacier Recession
53 Fires Episodes?
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61 PNW node Waterlimited vs. energylimited systems. Climate and Douglas-fir growth Sample plots cover the complete biophysical gradient space of Douglas-fir.
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64 Net primary production (NPP, kgc m -2 y -1 ) vs. precipitation (PRCP, mm y -1 ), temperature (Temp, o C), and incident shortwave radiation (RAD, MJ m -2 d -1 ) for NPP vs. PRCP NPP vs. Temp NPP vs. RAD
65 Change Detection Map Outflow (A2 minus Control simulation)
66 20 th Century Trends In Snowpack Decrease Increase Mote 2003(b)
67 Trends in Timing of Spring Snowmelt +20d later 20d earlier Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, Iris Stewart, Dan Cayan
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71 In summer 2002, pinyon (Pinus edulis) began dying en masse from drought stress and an associated bark beetle outbreak. Jemez Mts. near Los Alamos, October 2002
72 Conversion from PJ to J woodlands Jemez Mts., May 2004
73 The U.S. Geological Survey s Western Mountain Initiative (WMI) of global change research sites Olympic and North Cascades Sierra Nevada Northern Rocky Mountains Central Rocky Mountains Southern Rocky Mountains
74 PNW node pristine severely degraded The model The domain Air-quality modeling in mountain protected areas typically the worst days are caused by wildfire.
75 GLobal Observation Research Initiative in Alpine Environments developed by researchers at the University of Vienna, Austria initiative towards an international research network to assess climate change impacts on mountain environments in line with international research demands, e.g. Mountain Research Initiative Global Terrestrial Observation System Global Mountain Biodiversity Assessment
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77 Glacier National Park, MT
78 CLIMET Transect
79 Western Mountain Initiative
80 The American Cordillera Transect
81 GLOCHAMORE
82 GLORIA Project
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