TERENO CT Palaeoclimate Extending the Time Concept

Transcription

1 TERENO CT Palaeoclimate Extending the Time Concept A. Brauer, I. Heinrich, K. Kaiser Sektion Klimadynamik und Landschaftsentwicklung, GFZ Potsdam

2 Long-term Monitoring..for improving predictions Temperature changes in the period of instrumental easurements Brohan et al., 2006 Page 2

3 Predictions Depend on the Time when they are made Page 3

4 Geological Proxy Time Series: Greenland Ice Cores warm 0 10 last 200 years Age (in 1000 years) 20 warm t~2 C cold t~6 C The farther backward you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see. Winston Churchill cold Johnsen et al., nature 1997

5 Climate Driving Mechanisms on Various Time Scales Page 5

6 Interactions of Mechanisms and Consequences Page 6

7 Interactions of mechanisms and Consequences Page 7

8 Information lies on and in the ground Page 8

9 Take the Information out of the Ground Page 9

10 4000 Challenge: Reading the Information High-resolution Element Scanning Rock magnetic Analyses 3000 Ca Stable Isotopes net count rate (cps) Si mm Tephrochronology Mg Micro-facies Analyses δ 18 O (per mil VPDB) Page 10

11 Challenge: Reading the Information Old living trees Historical Buildings Crossdating of tree ring time series Long and well-dated tree ring chronologies from archaeological sources available for the last 1000 years from our cooperation partner DAI (German Archaeological Institute) Page 11

12 Challenge: Merging Instrumental and Geological Times Novel Concept: Reducing Time Resolution in Geoarchives: Seasonal Resolution in Varved Lake Sediments and Tree Rings Cell Sizes as Hydrological Proxy Page 12

13 TERENO Network of Palaeo-stations NE German Lakes Eifel Maar Lakes Ammersee Jues-See, Harz Page 13

14 Ammersee: Calibrating Temperature Proxydata Instrumental Data Annecy Ammersee Temperature Annecy Temperature Ammersee 0 Δ-MAT ( C) -10 δ 18 O[ SMOW] Age (yearsad) Page 14

15 The Ammersee Palaeotemperature Record Age, GRIP chronology (yrs BP) δ 18 O P Europe Centrale ( SMOW) von Grafenstein et al., Science 1999 Ammersee GRIP δ 18 O P Groenland Central ( SMOW) Page 15

16 The Ammersee: An Excellent Palaeoflood Archive Czymzik et al., WRR 2010 Page 16

17 The Ammersee as Palaeoflood Archive Czymzik et al., WRR 2010 Page 17

18 The Ammersee: An Excellent Palaeoflood Archive Czymzik et al., WRR 2010 Page 18

19 The Ammersee as Palaeoflood Archive Czymzik et al., WRR 2010 Page 19

20 Redernswalder See: Surprising Lake Level Changes 3.5 m in 24 years Tree ring ananlyses: Growth period (= life time) Page 20

21 Redernswalder See: Surprising Lake Level Changes 3.5 m in 30 years 3.5 m in 24 years Highly dynamic hydrological system: 3.5 m sea level rise and fall in 60 years! Mechanisms and trigger not understood Simple explanations are misleading Page 21

22 Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes Summer 1985 (H. Dinkel) August 2009 (I. Heinrich) Island Formation Vegetation Succession Page 22

23 Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes?? Germer et al. (2010) In order to reliably predict future developments, we have to understand the variability of the system and ultimately its driving mechanisms Page 23

24 Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes ca1950 today Multi-Archive Approach: Lake Sediments + Tree Rings + Soils Including monitoring hydrology, lakes, trees Page 24

25 Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes 0.9 m Eolian sand AD 1285 ± 15 AD 1059 ± m limnic sand Page 25

26 Fürstenseer See: Surprising Lake Level Changes Page 26

27 Main Goal of the CT Palaeoclimate: Evaluating Climate Change on a Comprehensive Time Scale Page 27