Chapter Causes of Climate Change Part I: Milankovitch Cycles
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1 Chapter Causes of Climate Change Part I: Milankovitch Cycles
2 Climate Cycles =400
3 Milankovitch Cycles Milankovitch Cycles are created by changes in the geometry of Earth s orbit around the sun and changes in Earth s tilt. Milankovitch Cycles vary the amount of sunlight parts of the Earth receive at certain times of year Cycles can increase or decrease seasonal Eccentricity, Obliquity, Precession are the three changes in the Earth s movement analyzed in the Milankovitch cycles
4 Geometry of the Earth & Sun is more quickly affected by changes in heating than water. Also, Oceans circulate, which will lessen seasonal variatiions. Since most continents are in the Northern Hemisphere, Milankovitch Cycles have a greater effect on seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, and these effects are what can cause global glacial and interglacial periods. In general, extreme seasonal changes lead to glacial periods, extreme changes lead to interglacial periods. Why? More extreme summers = more melting of snowpack More extreme winters = less snow (too cold for water vapor)
5 Eccentricity Eccentricity: the change in the shape of the Earth s, ranging from nearly circular to more elliptical on a 100,000 year cycle. Greater eccentricity increases the difference between aphelion (furthest point from the sun) and the periphelion (closest point to the sun). Whether a greater eccentricity will cause greater seasonal differences depends on the combination of eccentricity with (orientation of Earth s tilt relative to the sun). We are currently in a period of eccentricity. Current: More Extreme Less Extreme
6 Obliquity (or Axial Tilt) Obliquity: degree of the tilt of the Earth s axis. Variation in tilt ranges from 21.5 and 24.5 in a cycle of 41,000 years. Current tilt is and is Less tilt results in seasonal differences, which can lead to glaciation Current More Extreme Less Extreme
7 Precession (or Wobble) Precession: Change in the orientation of the Earth s axis relative to its. (Wobble of axis.) Cycle is 23,000 years. Currently the periphelon (closest point to sun) occurs during Northern Hemisphere s, causing extreme seasons in the Northern hemisphere. When axis parallel to sun (equinoxes) during aphelion and periphelon, hemispheres have similar contrast in seasons. More Extreme in North Current: Less Extreme in North
8 Milankovitch Cycles At times when Northern Hemisphere summers are (farthest from the Sun due to precession and greatest orbital eccentricity) and winters are (minimum tilt), snow can accumulate on and cover broad areas of northern America and Europe. At present, only precession is in the glacial mode, with tilt and eccentricity not favorable to glaciation.
9 Climate Cycles Even when all the orbital parameters favor glaciation, the increase in winter snowfall and decrease in summer melt would barely be enough to trigger glaciation, not to grow large ice sheets. Ice sheet growth requires the support of feedback loops. The largest one is probably tied to ocean uptake of carbon.
10 Natural Climate Cycles End of last ice age about 10,000 yr BP =400 Now in warm interglacial period Based on ice core data, analysis of trapped gas (CO 2 is measured directly; O 2 isotopes give temp. information) Correlation between CO 2 & mean temp.
11 Natural Climate Cycles CO 2 and Temperature correspond very closely What has caused past CO 2 variations? (ocean biological activity, ocean circulation patterns?) Past CO 2 max (~300ppm) Current CO 2 (~399 ppm)
12 Why have global temperature and CO 2 variations correlated so closely with each other in the pre-industrial past? --Positive feedback loop between temperature and ocean productivity (photosynthesis) may be key Warmer Global Temperatures More Greenhouse Effect Warmer Oceans Less CO 2 Removed from Atmosphere Less Productivity (photosynthesis) In Oceans
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