Looking for changes in northern vegeta7on

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Course outline Looking for changes in northern vegeta7on Martha Raynolds Osher Lifelong Learning Ins7tute October 2014 15 October Exploring northern vegeta7on - what grows where & why?

1 Course outline Looking for changes in northern vegeta7on Martha Raynolds Osher Lifelong Learning Ins7tute October October Exploring northern vegeta7on - what grows where & why? Links to climate; climate change in the north 22 October How do we figure out if vegeta7on is changing? Past vegeta7on of the north fossils, pollen Measuring vegeta7on - ground sampling, experiments, satellites 29 October Changing arc7c vegeta7on glaciers, tundra, shrubs 5 November Changing boreal vegeta7on treeline, forests, lakes, treeline Changes in Sea Ice and Summer Warmth BhaQ et al The spring season has started earlier and there is more tundra vegeta7on The spring season has started earlier and there is more tundra vegeta7on Separated forested and tundra regions, broken down by six-year intervals Separated forested and tundra regions, broken down by six-year intervals Tundra regions have shown a continued increase 10% increase Goetz et al Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences Goetz et al Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences 1

The spring season has started earlier and there is more tundra vegeta7on Separated forested and tundra regions, broken down by six-year intervals.

greening. There is no corresponding shift in the end of the greening period. 10-day spring shift in growing season length Goetz et al. 2005. Proc. Natl.

4 0 1 2 3 4 5 Change in NDVI 1985-2007 (22 years) Raynolds et al. 2013 Arc7c, Antarc7c, & Alpine Research 1982-2008 1982-2013 0.43 0.42 R² = 0.

2 The spring season has started earlier and there is more tundra vegeta7on Separated forested and tundra regions, broken down by six-year intervals The forested areas show a recent decline 10% increase Tundra regions have shown a continued increase and a 10-day shift toward earlier onset of greening. There is no corresponding shift in the end of the greening period. 10-day spring shift in growing season length Goetz et al Proc. Natl. Academy of Sciences Upper Kuparuk River Basin, North Slope, Alaska R² = Problem with trends Change in NDVI (22 years) Raynolds et al Arc7c, Antarc7c, & Alpine Research R² = Problems with trends Adding points to either end of a trend makes big difference R² = 5E- 28 Adding points to middle changes R value, but usually not direc7on BhaQ et al BhaQ et al

Dryas octopetala The InternaTonal Tundra Experiment (ITEX)

height, liqer, less bare ground Increases in shrubs

temperature and increase in vegeta7on was dependent on the

permafrost. Elmendorf et al. 2012 approx. 20 cm Photo - M.K.

repeat cover & biomass sampling in wet sedge meadow at

aboveground biomass (158%) Increase in root biomass

biomass (139%) No change in liqer biomass No change in

Hobbie & Kling 2014 Minuar1a rossii Cover of deciduous

3 Dryas octopetala The InternaTonal Tundra Experiment (ITEX) CONTROL PLOTS inadvertent data Increases in vascular height, liqer, less bare ground Increases in shrubs Decreases in mosses and lichens Link between increased temperature and increase in vegeta7on was dependent on the climate zone, the moisture regime, and the presence of permafrost. Elmendorf et al approx. 20 cm Photo - M.K. Raynolds Mountain avens Control Open- top chamber 25 year repeat cover & biomass sampling in wet sedge meadow at Alexandra Fiord, Ellesmere Island, Nunavut Increase in aboveground biomass (158%) Increase in root biomass increased (67%) Increase in rhizome (belowground stem) biomass (139%) No change in liqer biomass No change in diversity measures Hudson & Henry 2009 Ecology Gould in Hobbie & Kling 2014 Minuar1a rossii Cover of deciduous shrubs in different vegetaton types Coastal Plain of the ArcTc NaTonal Wildlife Refuge Ross sandwort 3

4 year repeat photography from Tasiilaq, SE Greenland 2007 changes in cover, especially in moist areas, but liqle change in community composi7on Daniels et al Ambio Then & Now: The Changing Arc1c Landscape Exhibit produced by the University of Alaska in 2012 Increase in arc7c shrubs Photo from 1950, North Slope Alaska Photo from 2000 (Sturm et al. 2001) Alder shrubland expansion on hilltops at Dudinka, northwest Siberia Frost et al MINUTE STRETCH BREAK Summary of net changes in tall shrub (white boxes) and larch (black boxes) cover at 11 tundra ecotones in northern Siberia. NegaTve values are given in parentheses. Frost et al

Repeat photography by Ma` Nolan, UAF Ernest Leffingwell MaQ Nolan photograph Mean annual (red) and cumula7ve (blue) clima7c mass balance (B clim ) from

Each year during this period has at least 20 reported measurements.

only three (all outlets of the northern margin of Iceland's Vatnajökull ice cap) Sharp et al. NOAA Arc7c Report Card 2013 hqp://www.eea.europa.

com According to NASA satellite data, almost all of the surface of Greenland experienced surface melt during an unprecedented heat wave in mid- July.

5 Repeat photography by Ma` Nolan, UAF Ernest Leffingwell MaQ Nolan photograph Mean annual (red) and cumula7ve (blue) clima7c mass balance (B clim ) from based on all available annual measurements (count) from Arc7c glaciers reported to the World Glacier Monitoring Service by January Each year during this period has at least 20 reported measurements. MaQ Nolan photoshop From , 21 of the 24 Arc7c glaciers (excluding Greenland Ice Cap) had nega7ve mass balance, and posi7ve (mass gain) for only three (all outlets of the northern margin of Iceland's Vatnajökull ice cap) Sharp et al. NOAA Arc7c Report Card 2013 hqp:// hqp:// Tedesco et al. NOAA Arc7c Report Card 2012 hqps://robertscribbler.wordpress.com According to NASA satellite data, almost all of the surface of Greenland experienced surface melt during an unprecedented heat wave in mid- July Such an event has never happened in the en7re 30 year satellite record. In fact, one has to go back to ice core data to find an analogous period. According to that data, the last 7me melt of this scale occurred was during the summer of 1889, about 123 years ago. Pedicularis sude,ca Lousewort 5

6 Raynolds et al Temperatures at Deadhorse, Prudhoe Bay Permafrost is warming throughout the Arc7c. Changes are greatest farthest north, in the coldest permafrost. Increases in ac7ve layer are causing surface subsidence. Romanovsky et al. NOAA Arc7c Report Card 2013 slide courtesy A. Liljedahl slide courtesy A. Liljedahl Androsace chamaejasme 0.5 ha thaw slump on Tuktoyuktok Peninsula, NW Territories, Canada STRETCH TIME! disturbances may have a larger and more immediate impact on Low ArcTc ecosystems than temperature warming alone Lantz et al Photo - M.K. Raynolds Rock jasmine 6

Lantz et al. 2009 Lantz et al. 2010 Climate- related disturbance permafrost thawing fire insects & disease Landslide in Denali Park, Alaska Photo - M.K. Raynolds Frost et al.

A., Raynolds M.K., Bieniek P.A., Epstein H.E., Comiso J.C., Pinzon J.E., Tucker C.J. & Polyakov I.V. (2013). Recent declines in warming and vegeta7on greening trends over pan- Arc7c tundra.

Flora and vegeta7on of Tasiilaq, formerly Angmagssalik, southeast Greenland: a comparison of data between around 1900 and 2007. Ambio, 40, 650-659 Elmendorf S., Henry G.H.R., Hollister R.D., Bjork R.

7 Lantz et al Lantz et al Climate- related disturbance permafrost thawing fire insects & disease Landslide in Denali Park, Alaska Photo - M.K. Raynolds Frost et al Anaktuvuk River tundra fire, summer 2007 burned 1000 km 2 North Slope, Alaska Photo - A. Rocha This is a COLOR photo Photo - A. Rocha Reference for Lecture 3 Changes in the ArcTc BhaQ U.S., Walker D.A., Raynolds M.K., Bieniek P.A., Epstein H.E., Comiso J.C., Pinzon J.E., Tucker C.J. & Polyakov I.V. (2013). Recent declines in warming and vegeta7on greening trends over pan- Arc7c tundra. Remote Sensing, 5, Daniels, F.J.A., & De Molenaar, J.G. (2011). Flora and vegeta7on of Tasiilaq, formerly Angmagssalik, southeast Greenland: a comparison of data between around 1900 and Ambio, 40, Elmendorf S., Henry G.H.R., Hollister R.D., Bjork R.G., Boulanger- Lapointe N., Cooper E.J., Cornelissen J.H.C., Day T.A., Dorrepaal E., Elumeeva T.G., Gill M., Gould W.A., Harte J., Hik D.S., Hofgaard A., Johnson D.R., Johnstone J.F., Jonsdotr I.S., Jorgenson J.C., Klanderud K., Klein J.A., Koh S., Kudo G., Lara M., Levesque E., Magnusson B., May J.L., Mercado- Díaz J.A., Michelsen A., Molau U., Myers- Smith I.H., Oberbauer S.F., Onipchenko V.G., Rixen C., Schmidt N.M., Shaver G.R., Spasojevic M.J., Thorshallsdotr T.E., Tolvanen A., Troxler T., Tweedie C.E., Villareal S., Wahren C.H., Walker X., Webber P.J., Welker J.M. & Wipf S. (2012) Plot- scale evidence of tundra vegeta7on change and links to recent summer warming. Nature Climate Change Frost G.V., Epstein H.E., Walker D.A., Matyshak G. & Ermokhina K. (2013) PaQerned- ground facilitates shrub expansion in Low Arc7c tundra. Environmental Research LeQers, 8, Frost G.V. & Epstein H.E. (2014) Tall shrub and tree expansion in Siberian tundra ecotones since the 1960s. Global Change Biology, 20, Goetz, S.J., Bunn, A.G., Fiske, G.J., & Houghton, R.A. (2005). Satellite- observed photosynthe7c trends across boreal North America associated with climate and fire disturbance. Proceedings of the Na,onal Academy of Sciences of the United States, 102,

8 Hobbie J.E. & Kling G.W. (2014) Alaska's Changing Arc7c: Ecological consequences for tundra, streams, and lakes. Oxford University Press, New York, NY. Hudson, J.M., & Henry, G.H.R. (2009). Increased plant biomass in a High Arc7c heath community from 1981 to Ecology, 90, Jorgenson, M.T., Shur, Y.L., & Pullman, E.R. (2006). Abrupt increase in permafrost degrada7on in Arc7c Alaska. Geophysical Research LeQers, 33, L02503 Lantz, T.C., Kokelj, S.V., Gergel, S.E., & Henry, G.H.R. (2009). Rela7ve impacts of disturbance and temperature: persistent changes in microenvironment and vegeta7on in retrogressive thaw slumps. Global Change Biology, 15, Raynolds M.K., Walker D.A., Verbyla D. & Munger C.A. (2013). PaQerns of change within a tundra landscape: 22- year Landsat NDVI trends in an area of the northern foothills of the Brooks Range, Alaska. Arc7c, Antarc7c and Alpine Research, 45, Raynolds M.K., Walker D.A., Ambrosius K.J., Brown J., EvereQ K.R., Kanevskiy M., Kofinas G.P., Romanovsky V.E., Shur Y. & Webber P.J. (2014) Cumula7ve geoecological effects of 62 years of infrastructure and climate change in ice- rich permafrost landscapes, Prudhoe Bay Oilfield, Alaska. Global Change Biology, 20, Sturm, M., Racine, C.H., & Tape, K. (2001). Increasing shrub abundance in the Arc7c Nature, 411, Tape K. (2010) The Changing Arc7c Landscape. University of Alaska Press, Fairbanks, AK. Ma` Nolan Okpilak Glacier hqp:// Greenland melt - NOAA 2013 ArcTc Report Card hqp:// 8

Circumpolar Arctic greening:

Circumpolar Arctic greening: Relationships to summer sea-ice concentrations, land temperatures and disturbance regimes D.A. Walker, U.S. Bhatt, H.E. Epstein, M.K. Raynolds, G.V. Frost, M.O. Liebman, A.V.