Applications of the MOLAND model in the Greater Dublin Region

Transcription

1 Urban Environment Project and Applications of the MOLAND model in the Greater Dublin Region Sheila Convery, Dr. Brendan Williams Workshop Integration of Spatial Decision Support Systems and Evidence Based Modelling in National/Regional Policy Applications and Regulatory Systems: Scientific and Policy Challenges Urban Environment Project July, 2013, UCD

2 Overview - Introduction - Current limitations of land use planning as a policy instrument - Dynamic land use modelling (MOLAND) evidence based tools for effective land use management - Applications of the MOLAND tool in the Greater Dublin Region - Conclusions Urban Environment Project

3 At a glance Funding Administered by the Irish EPA, through the Environmental Research and Technical Innovation program, Total budget: 32m Project budget 1.2m over 4 years Duration 48 months from February 2006 Personnel 5 PhD students, 1 Post-Doc, Project manager, Director, 10+ academic supervisors, modelling team Multi-disciplinary Air quality, Climate change, Transport, Biodiversity, Urban sprawl Inter-institutional UCD (4 Schools across 2 Colleges) NUI Maynooth Trinity College Dublin ERA Maptec Ltd. OSNI Local and Regional authorities (Dublin city, South Dublin, Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown, Fingal, Meath, Louth, Kildare Nati, Wicklow) Urban Environment Project UEP

4 Research project aimed to address the limitations of current land-use planning policy approaches Multidisciplinary team focussed on environmental themes - Air quality Urban transport - Climate Change Air quality - Biodiversity MOLAND modelling framework as integrating element Outputs included working papers, reports, PhD theses, working calibrated and validated model, data sets, presentations, training events, workshops Green City Guidelines publication advice for planners and practitioners with regard to incorporating biodiversity considerations into medium-high density developments in Ireland Urban Environment Project

5 Available at Publications and Downloads Available at Available at

6 Traditional Land Use Planning as Policy Instrument Zoning rules associated with maps coloured to signify uses or combinations of uses allowed. Draft Plans and associated maps inter alia for: Environment and amenity (biodiversity, air quality, open space, landscape protection) Industry and commerce (office and industrial zones and parks) Recreation (parks, playgrounds, sports areas, hiking, water recreation etc), Settlement (houses, apartments) Solid Waste disposal Transport (roads, rail, air, cycle, harbours) Water and sewage reservoirs, pipes, wastewater treatment Urban Environment Project UEP

7 Key Limitations with traditional approach Typically only one set of options presented for comment and feedback Difficult to establish interconnections and interdependencies between the various strands, which may be presented as chapters (in County Development Plans, Local Area Plans) Doesn t separate out the role of land use planning as policy instrument Difficult to integrate environmental dimensions Urban Environment Project UEP

8 How is Urban and Regional analysis assisted by MOLAND Useful? A range of what-if scenarios can be explored A variety of spatial planning policies can be assessed The environmental impacts of different land-use policies can be quantified Provide robust framework for comparing, discussing and visualising a variety of spatial planning policies Metrics (indicators) can be used to quantify the difference between alternative scenarios Urban Environment Project UEP

9 Morphogenesis, spatial organisations, interactions, dynamics, multi-scale processes Infrastructure planning & maintenance Multiple land use Urban Sprawl Fragmentation - Densification Urban decay / Gentrification Urban green spaces Ecological corridors Urban quality Landscape quality Ecological quality Environmental appraisal Diversity & Biodiversity Emissions Energy-efficiency Solid waste generation and disposal Exposure to & danger of calamities Noise, smell & light disturbance Heat islands Mobility Traffic management Traffic safety Traffic congestion 9

10 MOLAND Study Areas Algarve Belgrade Bilbao Bratislava Brussels Dresden Dublin Helsinki Iraklion Milan Munich Nicosia Oporto Palermo Prague Ruhr Area Setubal Sunderland Tallinn Veneto Vienna Dresden-Prague Corridor Lagos

11 MOLAND (Monitoring Urban Land Cover Dynamics) Developed as part of an initiative of the EC Joint Research Centre for assessing and analysing urban and regional development trends across Europe Comprises dynamic land use model socio-economic model transport model regional migration model Can be used for the analysis of different socio-economic scenarios like population growth or an increase of un-employment and the assessment of alternative policy options like restrictive zoning plans or per-km car levies. Urban Environment Project UEP

12 Global level MOLAND Models at 3 coupled spatial scales Growth figures for the population and the jobs are entered into the model as trend lines. Regional level Arranges for the allocation of the Global growth as well as for the interregional migration of activities and residence based on relative attractiveness of the counties. Local level The detailed allocation of economic activities and people is modelled by means of a Cellular Automata based land use model.

13 Land use map at time T MACRO MODEL MICRO MODEL Local Level (426,500 cells) Land use map at time T+1 Global Level (Greater Dublin Region) Neighbourhood Rules Population and Employment Trends Time step: 1 year Regional Level (5 counties in the Region) Socio-Economic Information Zoning Transport Accessibilit Zones Suitabilit y y Land Use Transition in MOLAND Model

14 CALIBRATION Macro-model parameters Allocation of regional demand Semi-automatic N E A S Z P, J N E A S Z P, J Micro-model parameters Accessibility parameters - Relative importance of each transport type to each land use class Neighbourhood rules Interactions between land use classes in a defined neighbourhood (Transition rules, neighbourhood effects) Urban Environment Project UEP

15 Running a Simulation Moland takes 5 key data inputs: Land use map, transport network, zoning status, suitability and socio-economic data The model is then run forward in time to a specified date Maps of the predicted land uses and their locations are then produced as outputs These data outputs can then be analysed both quantitatively and spatially Urban Environment Project UEP

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17 Examples of Urban Development Scenarios 1. Dispersed Development Scenario Baseline simulation no zoning restrictions 2. Compact City Scenario All future development contained within the limits of the Metropolitan Area as defined by the Regional Planning Guidelines (2004).

18 Dispersed Development Scenario Future development widely dispersed throughout the region, predominantly in small clusters

19 Dispersed Development Scenario Residential Discontinuous Urban Fabric Increase strongly concentrated in Fingal and N Kildare Some evidence of densification in Dublin City areas

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21 Regional Planning Guideline review: using MOLAND as part of the Strategic Environmental Assessment Process 1. Baseline/Continued Trends Approach 2. Finger Expansion of Metropolitan Area 3. Consolidation of Key Towns & the City 4. Consolidation & Sustainability and some expansion at nodes on Transport Corridors. Urban Environment Project UEP 21

22 Scenarios 1 : Continued Trend Zoning Map Suitability Map Transport Network Map Business as usual scenario. Continuation of the current, dispersed settlement patterns. The decision not to include a special greenbelt layer was taken to explore what the current trend of developer led settlement patterns might lead to if left unchecked. Transport network update Dunboyne Spur by 2012 Metro-North and Dart Interconnector in 2020

23 Scenarios 2: Finger Expansion Transport Suitability Zoning Network Map Map The effects of a firm policy of consolidation are explored. Development is strongly directed toward an expanded Metropolitan Footprint, which is extended along key transport corridors. Strictly enforced Strategic Green Belts are used to discourage excessive development in rural areas and link protected areas. Transport network update All Transport 21 railways and LUAS delivered in 2016 or 2020 (2 sub-scenarios)

24 Scenarios 3: Consolidation of Key Towns & the City Suitability Map Zoning Map Transport Network Map Strong consolidation policy. Growth was focused within the existing envelope of the MF and towards a limited number of key towns in the Hinterland (Drogheda, Navan, Naas, Wicklow and Arklow). Green Belts promoting consolidated development. Some connector Green Belts do penetrate the MF, again to preserve links between urban green space and rural areas. Transport network update Dunboyne Spur in 2012 Navan railway in 2016 Metro North and Interconnector rail in 2020 Orbital route in Sub-scenarios: Short OOR: Drogheda - Navan - Naas, Long OOR: Drogheda - Navan - Naas - Wicklow - Arklow

25 Scenarios 4: Managed Dispersal Consolidation is once again promoted. Development is focused within the existing MF and development centres. Growth in the Mid-East at public transport nodes within the MF and in designated towns on high quality public transport routes. Several strictly enforced Strategic Green Belts are included to prevent the merger of towns/areas distinct in Suitability Map Suitability Map Transport Network Map Transport network update Dunboyne Spur in 2012 Metro North and Interconnector in 2016, Navan railway in 2019, OOR in Sub-scenarios: Short OOR: Drogheda - Navan - Naas, Long OOR: Drogheda - Navan - Naas - Wicklow - Arklow

26 Simulation Results Land use maps of 2026 Scenario 1 Continued trend Scenario 2 Finger expansion Scenario 3 Consolidation of key towns & the City Scenario 4 Managed Dispersal

27 In Scenario 1 by 2026 development has dispersed across the region in many small clusters and formerly separate urban areas have merged.

28 In Scenarios 2-4, but particularly in Scenario 2, development to the West of Dublin city is heavy. Coastal development close to Dublin city is also more pronounced in Scenarios 2-4 compared to Scenario 1.

29 Urban development in GDR by 2026

30 Hectares Change in land uses over Louth Meath Dublin Kildare Wicklow Total built Residential Activities Green Areas

31 Encroachment of development within 1km of protected areas by scenario

32 Percentage of urban areas within 1km of transport nodes

33 Meters Residential and Green Urban Areas Mean Minimum Distance Sc 1 Sc 2-1 Sc 2-2 Sc 3-1 Sc 3-2 Sc 4-1 Sc Louth Meath Dublin Kildare Wicklow GDR

34 Encroachment on protected areas by scenario (SPAs/SACs/NHAs)

35 Population Distribution between Metropolitan area and the Hinterland 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Sc 1 Sc 2-1 Sc 2-2 Sc 3-1 Sc 3-2 Sc 4-1 Sc 4-2 Pop MA Pop Hinterland

36 Conclusions MOLAND provides a dynamic representation of land use change over time and offers powerful alternatives to traditional static mapping systems used to analyse and manage land use in Ireland. MOLAND provides a means of visualising the effects of a business as usual scenario with regard to spatial planning policy It allows for the quantitative interrogation and comparison of the environmental impacts and settlement patterns which may result under a number of strategic spatial planning policy options. Urban Environment Project UEP

37 Project Findings Managed increased density land-use is inherently more energyefficient and if combined with improvements in public transport result in lower per capita emissions Well designed mixed-use developments can reduce transportrelated emissions by reducing travel to employment and services and could enable an increased modal shift to public transport. Spatial distribution of development can have a significant impact on biodiversity assets in the region Significant data gaps have been identified including a lack of harmonised data (both scalar, temporal and contextual) relating to zoning status of lands in the region and also a lack of biodiversity data at a fine spatial scale. Urban Environment Project UEP

38 Selected Publications WILLIAMS, B & CONVERY, S (2012) Decision support tools for managing the urban environment in Ireland. STRIVE Report No. 92. Environmental Protection Agency WILLIAMS, B., SHAHUMYAN, H., BOYLE, I., CONVERY, S., WHITE, R. (2012) Utilising an Urban-Regional Model (MOLAND) for Testing the Planning and Provision of Wastewater Treatment Capacity in the Dublin Region Planning Practice and Research Vol 27, Issue 2 pp Petrov, L.O., Shahumyan, H., Williams, B., Convery, S. (2011) Scenarios and indicators supporting urban regional planning. Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences. International Conference: Spatial Thinking and Geographic Information Sciences Vol. 21 pages SHAHUMYAN, H., WHITE, R., PETROV, L., WILLIAMS, B., CONVERY S., BRENNAN, M. (2011) Urban Development Scenarios and Probability Mapping for Greater Dublin Region: The MOLAND model applications. Lecture Notes in Computer Science Vol Computational Science and Its Applications ICCSA 2011 International Conference, Santander, Spain June 2011 Part I. pp Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg BRENNAN, M., SHAHUMYAN, H., WALSH, C., CARTY, J., WILLIAMS, B., CONVERY, S. (2009) Regional Planning Guideline review: using MOLAND as part of the Strategic Environmental Assessment Process. UCD Urban Institute Ireland Working Paper Series, 09/07. 26p Urban Environment Project MCINERNEY, D. O. & WALSH, C The Spatial Composition and Distribution of Land-Use Change in the Dublin City Region Irish Geography 42,

39 Thank You! The Urban Environment Project is generously sponsored by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency as part of the ERTDI programme which is funded through the National Development Plan CD-U1-M1 Decision support tools for managing urban environment in Ireland All work undertaken on the MOLAND model, for the Greater Dublin Region is subject to the license conditions of the software developers, Research Institute Knowledge Systems b.v. (RIKS b.v.) and the data set owners, DG JRC under license no. JRC.BWL The authors would like to thank the Dublin and Mid East Regional Authorities, in particular Deirdre Scully and Walter Foley for their cooperation in providing data and the context for the waste water facility case study and collaboration in regard to work relating to the Regional Planning Guidelines for the Greater Dublin Region. We would also like to acknowledge the assistance of Prof. Roger White and the Urban Environment Project team. Urban Environment Project