C Lehigh Valley Planning Commission

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2 L V P C Lehigh Valley Planning Commission Lehigh Valley Planning Commission Liesel Dreisbach, Chair Stephen Repasch, Vice Chair John N. Diacogiannis, CPCU, Treasurer Christen T. Borso John Brown Gordon Campbell Eugene Clater Robert Donchez Percy H. Dougherty, PhD Karen Duerholz Charles W. Elliott, Esq. George F. Gemmel Steven L. Glickman, RA, NCARB Armand V. Greco Darlene Heller, AICP (alt.) Tim Herrlinger (alt.) Kent H. Herman, Esq. Edward D. Hozza, Jr. Robert A. Lammi Kevin Lott Richard Molchany (alt.) Christina V. Morgan Thomas Muller Steven L. Neratko (alt.) Thomas J. Nolan David O Connell Brad Osborne Sara Pandl, AICP, RLA Salvatore J. Panto, Jr. Edward Pawlowski Pamela Pearson, MBA Hayden Phillips Lynn Prior Kathy Rader Michael Reph Tina Roseberry (alt.) Kevin A. Schmidt Julie Thomases Christine Weaver Donna Wright b

3 L V T S Lehigh Valley Transportation Study Lehigh Valley Transportation Study Coordinating Committee Voting Members Michael Rebert (Chair), PennDOT Distrit 5 James Ritzman, PennDOT Central Office Larry Shifflet (alt.), PennDOT Central Office Craig Messinger, City of Allentown Robert Donchez, City of Bethlehem Michael Alkhal (alt.), City of Bethlehem Salvatore J. Panto, Jr., City of Easton David Hopkins (alt.), City of Easton Thomas Muller, Lehigh County Richard Molchany (alt.), Lehigh County Lehigh Valley Transportation Study Technical Committee Voting Members Raymond C. Green (Chair), PennDOT Central Office Christopher J. Kufro, P.E., PennDOT District 5 Steve Neratko, City of Allentown Darlene Heller, AICP, City of Bethlehem David Hopkins, City of Easton Brendan Cotter, LANta Ryan Meyer, LNAA Becky A. Bradley, AICP, LVPC George G. Kinney, AICP, LVPC Michael S. Donchez, LVPC John Brown, Northampton County Stan Rugis (alt.), Northampton County Owen O Neil, LANta Charles R. Everett, Jr., LNAA Becky A. Bradley, AICP (Secretary), LVPC c

4 L V P C Lehigh Valley Planning Commission Lehigh Valley Planning Commission Staff Becky A. Bradley, AICP, Executive Director George G. Kinney, AICP, Director of Transportation Planning Geoffrey A. Reese, P.E., Director of Environmental Planning Bruce R. Rider, Director of Administration David E. Manhardt, AICP, Chief Geographic Information Systems Planner Tracy L. Oscavich, Associate Director of Development Justin Barclay, Senior Geographic Information Systems Planner Michael S. Donchez, Senior Transportation Planner Teresa Mackey, Senior Environmental Planner Susan L. Rockwell, Senior Environmental Planner John D. von Kerczek, Senior Community Planner Whitney A. Burdge, Urban Design Planner Brian Hite, Senior Planning Technician Bowen Liu, Geospatial and Economic Systems Developer Dharam Paul Nohar, Accountant Erin Willis, Executive Secretary d

5 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Lehigh Valley Planning Commission (LVPC) has created updated projections of future population and employment, including 23 industry sectors, for the Lehigh Valley through The projections were created to identify growth issues associated with land use, resource protection and infrastructure planning. The population and employment projections are especially important to transportation planning since they are a critical input to the region s travel demand forecasting model. Population and employment data are used in the travel model to calculate the expected demand for transportation facilities. The projections will also be used as the basis for the future land use scenario planning component of the Regional Comprehensive Plan Update, meaning that, as future land use scenarios are considered for the region, the projections will be adjusted to reflect the various scenarios. The projections were created for the region using the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) TranSight 4.0 modeling tool. The model provided regional baseline population and employment projections beginning with The LVPC adjusted the projections based on recent large development proposals, including The Waterfront, Hamilton Crossings and a number of large warehouse proposals, to more closely reflect the future demographic and economic conditions in the region. The reporting period for the statistics provided in this report begins with the 2010 Decennial Census. The majority of industry sectors in the Lehigh Valley are projected to see gains in employment through The health care and social assistance sector is projected to gain the most jobs (31,764), continuing the strong growth trend from the previous decade, followed by the administrative and waste management services sector (12,924 jobs). The transportation and warehousing sector follows with 11,395 jobs, experiencing the largest gain in employees in terms of percentage growth. The region has recently seen a number of large warehouse proposals, and this trend is expected to continue. The manufacturing sector is expected to see some growth (9%) during the 30-year period, despite heavy losses during the previous decade. Industry sectors expected to experience losses include agriculture, utilities, federal military and federal civilian, all of which experienced losses during

6 Key statistics from the population projections: The Lehigh Valley population is projected to increase by 165,955 people from , or by 25.6% over three decades. This increase represents steady but slightly slower growth than experienced over the previous 30 years ( ) when population increased by 30%. Lehigh County s population is projected to increase by 90,897 people, or an average of 8.7% per decade. In comparison, the population grew by an average of 9.4% per decade over the previous 30 years. Northampton County s population is projected to increase by 75,058 people, or an average of 8.4% per decade. Over the previous 30 years, the population grew by an average of 10.7% per decade. 2

7 In Lehigh County, the top five municipalities projected to experience the largest increases in population through 2040 in terms of numerical growth are: City of Allentown Upper Macungie Township Upper Saucon Township North Whitehall Township Whitehall Township In Northampton County, the top five municipalities projected to experience the largest increases in population through 2040 in terms of numerical growth are: City of Bethlehem (LECO + NOCO portions combined) Bethlehem Township Forks Township City of Easton Palmer Township 3

8 Key statistics from the employment projections: Within the Lehigh Valley, overall employment is projected to increase by 31% from , adding 107,817 jobs to the local economy. Lehigh County is projected to gain 65,444 jobs, a 30% increase over the 30-year period. Through 2020, the county is projected to experience 16.1% job growth due in part to the completion of recently proposed regionally significant projects. The county saw similar job growth in the 1990s with 15.9% job growth. Northampton County is projected to gain 42,373 jobs, a 32.7% increase over the 30-year period. Through 2020, the county is projected to experience 17.9% job growth due in part to a number of significant land development proposals within the county. The previous decade experienced 14.3% job growth. 4

9 In Lehigh County, the top five municipalities projected to experience the highest growth in employment through 2040 in terms of numerical growth are: Upper Macungie Township City of Allentown Whitehall Township Lower Macungie Township Upper Saucon Township In Northampton County, the top five municipalities projected to experience the highest growth in employment through 2040 in terms of numerical growth are: City of Bethlehem (LECO + NOCO portions combined) Bethlehem Township Lower Nazareth Township Forks Township Palmer Township 5

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11 POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION POPULATION 7

12 Population Projections for Lehigh + Northampton Counties

13 Population Projections for Lehigh + Northampton Counties + Municipalities 9

14 Population Density for Lehigh + Northampton Counties

15 Population Density for Lehigh + Northampton Counties

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17 EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT EMPLOYMENT 13

18 Employment Projections for Lehigh + Northampton Counties

19 Employment Employment Projections by Industry for Lehigh Sector + for Northampton Lehigh + Northampton Counties Counties + Municipalities 15

20 Employment Density for Lehigh + Northampton Counties

21 Employment Density for Lehigh + Northampton Counties

22 Projected Growth per Industry Sector 18

23 Projected Job Increase per Industry Sector 19

24 Data Sources and Links The population and employment projections presented relied primarily on the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) TranSight 4.0 modeling tool. Additional supporting data sources include the U.S. Census and the Lehigh Valley Planning Commission. Interactive Map Online lvpc.org/projections.html GIS Credit Dave Manhardt Bowen Liu Content Credit Bowen Liu Sue Rockwell Design Credit Whitney Burdge Photography Credit William Deegan Alice Lipe 20

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26 L V P C Lehigh Valley Planning Commission 961 Marcon Boulevard, Suite 310 Allentown, Pennsylvania Phone: Web: 22