2015 Climate Report. Temperature and Precipitation. Raleigh, North Carolina

Transcription

1 2015 Climate Report Temperature and Precipitation Raleigh, North Carolina Data retrieved from the US National Weather Service in Raleigh, North Carolina Web source: Report published and concatenated by MATLAB R2015a

2 Table of Contents 2015 TEMPERATURE COMPARISON MEAN TEMPERATURE COMPARISON PRECIPITATION... 3 HISTORICAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DATA... 4 JANUARY FEBRUARY MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUGUST SEPTEMBER OCTOBER NOVEMBER DECEMBER ANALYSIS TEMPERATURE COMPARISON 1

3 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURE COMPARISON 2

4 2015 PRECIPITATION 3

5 HISTORICAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DATA '* * * * Below is a month-by-month breakdown of the temperature comparison to the mean historical temperature data available from the National Weather Service in Raleigh, North Carolina * * * *' 4

6 JANUARY

7 FEBRUARY

8 MARCH

9 APRIL

10 MAY

11 JUNE

12 JULY

13 AUGUST

14 SEPTEMBER

15 OCTOBER

16 NOVEMBER

17 DECEMBER 2015 ANALYSIS Published with MATLAB R2015a 16

18 2015 ANALYSIS DEGREE DAYS: RALEIGH, NC MEAN HEATING DEGREE DAYS: MEAN COOLING DEGREE DAYS: HEATING DEGREE DAYS: COOLING DEGREE DAYS: STATISTICS: RALEIGH, NC DAYS WITH HIGH ABOVE AVERAGE: 201 PERCENTAGE OF YEAR: 55.07% DAYS WITH LOW BELOW AVERAGE: 217 PERCENTAGE OF YEAR: 59.45% DAYS W/ MEASURABLE PRECIPTATION: 167 PERCENTAGE OF YEAR: 45.75%

19 2015 ANALYSIS AFTER COMPILING AND ANALZYING TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION DATA, A FEW OBSERVATIONS WERE MADE. FOR THE YEAR OF 2015, RDU INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT RECEIVED OF PRECIPITATION INCHES ABOVE THE MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION OF THIS CORRESPONDS TO A HYPOTHETICAL MEAN SURPLUS OF ABOUT 1.17 OF PRECIPITATION PER MONTH, REVEALING THE SUBSTANTIALITY OF THIS SURPLUS OF RAIN. MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED ON 167 OUT OF 365 CALENDAR DAYS IN THIS EQUATES TO 45.75% OF THE YEAR OBSERVING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION. IT WAS A WET YEAR IN RALEIGH. AS FOR TEMPERATURES, 201 OUT OF 365 CALENDAR DAYS IN 2015 SAW HIGH TEMPERATURES ABOVE ITS RESPECTIVE MEAN HIGH TEMPERATURE. THIS EQUATES TO 55.07% OF THE YEAR BEING DEFINED AS ABOVE AVERAGE IN TERMS OF DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURES. CONVERSELY, 217 OUT OF 365 CALENDAR DAYS IN 2015 SAW LOW TEMPERATURES BELOW ITS RESPECTIVE MEAN LOW TEMPERATURE. THIS EQUATES TO

20 59.45% OF THE YEAR BEING DEFINED AS BELOW AVERAGE IN TERMS OF DAILY LOW TEMPERATURES. WHEN IT COMES TO DEGREE DAYS, 2015 WAS MARGINALLY WARMER THAN THE HISTORICAL MEAN. IN 2015, HEATING DEGREE DAYS TOTALED TO , WHICH IS ONLY FROM THE HISTORICAL MEAN FAIRLY INSIGNIFICANT. HOWEVER, THE NOTICEABLE DIFFERENCE IS OBSERVED IN COOLING DAYS. IN 2015, COOLING DEGREE DAYS TOTALED TO , WHICH IS FROM THE HISTORICAL MEAN THIS IS NOT EXTREMELY SIGNIFICANT, BUT IT IS CERTAINLY NOTEWORTHY. A SURFEIT OF +500 DEGREE DAYS WOULD WARRANT FURTHER ANALYSIS. THE HIGHER VALUE OF COOLING DEGREE DAYS IN 2015 INDICATES AN OVERALL WARMER YEAR. WHILE THESE DATA DO SUPPORT EVIDENCE OF A WARMER THAN AVERAGE YEAR IN 2015, THESE DATA MUST NOT BE BLOWN OUT OF PROPORTION. THESE DATA SUPPORT THE EXISTENCE OF A GREAT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE YEAR ABNORMALLY HIGH HIGH TEMPERATURES AND ABNORMALLY LOW LOW TEMPERATURES, BUT ONLY IN MODERATION. FOR THESE DATA TO BE SIGNIFICANT IN SUPPORTING A WARMING CLIMATE, WE WOULD NEED TO SEE REPEATED YEARS OF THIS WARMER TREND.

21 THIS IS THE CONLUSION OF THE 2015 CLIMATE REPORT. ALL OBSERVATIONS WITHIN THE ANALYSIS ARE MINE AND ARE NOT AFFILIATED WITH ANY OTHER SOURCE. I PLAN TO GO INTO MORE DETAIL IN OTHER CLIMATE REPORTS. - ANDREW LARGER IMAGES OF THE MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION GRAPHS CAN BE FOUND BELOW.

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26 This concludes the 2015 Climate Report. Below is the code I used to generate this report in MATLAB in case you are interested or want to try to replicate some of the plots. This report was generated from 643 lines of code in MATLAB - granted, some of those lines are just blank space separating code. If you have any questions, please contact me at: andrewswxcenter@gmail.com

27 %% 2015 TEMPERATURE COMPARISON clc clear all A = load('raleigh2015_tempcompfinal2016.csv'); Lows = A(:,2); High = A(:,1); Mean = A(:,3); MMXVLows = A(:,5); MMXVHigh = A(:,4); MMXVMean = A(:,6); MMXVQPF = A(:,7); figure x = [1:365]; %2015 DATA: plot(x,mmxvlows,'b','linewidth',1) plot(x,mmxvhigh,'r','linewidth',1) %plot(x,mmxvmean,'--m','linewidth',1) %CLIMATOLOGICAL DATA: plot(x,lows,'k','linewidth',3) plot(x,high,'k','linewidth',3) plot(x,mean,'k','linewidth',1.5) title('2015 Temperatures vs. Climatological Average in Raleigh, NC') xlabel('time (Julian Days)') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('2015 Low','2015 High') %% 2015 MEAN TEMPERATURE COMPARISON %Take each monthly high temp and low temp average, so plot it as a line %plot, connecting the 12 months. figure %2015 Calculated Data mmxvhighs = [ ]; mmxvlows = [ ]; mmxvdays = [ ]; plot(mmxvdays,mmxvhighs,'r','linewidth',2); plot(mmxvdays,mmxvlows,'b','linewidth',2);

28 title('2015 Temperatures vs. Climatological Highs/Lows in Raleigh, NC') xlabel('time (Julian Days)') ylabel('temperature (F)') %Climatological Data Figure2 plot(x,lows,'k','linewidth',1.5) plot(x,high,'k','linewidth',1.5) legend('2015 Low','2015 High') %% 2015 PRECIPITATION figure %2015 Precipitation plot(x,mmxvqpf,'g') area(mmxvqpf) title('2015 Total Precipitation (QPF)') xlabel('time (Calendar Day)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %text(25,2.25,'total Precipitation: 57.48"') %% HISTORICAL MEAN TEMPERATURE DATA clc clear all A = load('raleightempsfinal.csv'); Lows = A(:,2); High = A(:,1); Mean = A(:,3); Prec = A(:,4); figure x = [1:365]; plot(x,lows,'b','linewidth',3) plot(x,high,'r','linewidth',3) plot(x,mean,'--m','linewidth',2) title('average Temperatures in Raleigh, NC') xlabel('time (Julian Days)') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('low','high','mean')

29 %% % '* * * * Below is a month-by-month breakdown of the temperature comparison to the mean historical temperature data available from the National Weather Service in Raleigh, North Carolina * * * *' %% JANUARY 2015 clc clear all A = load('january2015_tempcomp.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); %RealNorm = A(:,3) ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); %JanNorm = A(:,6) x = [1:31]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) %axis([ ]) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,jannorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('january 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') JanuaryPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,januaryprecip,'g') area(januaryprecip) title('january 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% FEBRUARY 2015 clc clear all A = load('february2015_tempcomp.csv');

30 HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); %RealNorm = A(:,3) ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); %FebNorm = A(:,6) x = [1:28]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) %axis([ ]) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,febnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('february 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') FebruaryPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,februaryprecip,'g') area(februaryprecip) title('february 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% MARCH 2015 clc clear all A = load('march2015_tempcompfinal.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); %RealNorm = A(:,3) ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); %MarNorm = A(:,6) x = [1:31]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) %axis([ ])

31 plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,marnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('march 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') MarchPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,marchprecip,'g') area(marchprecip) title('march 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% APRIL 2015 clc clear all A = load('april2015_tempcompfinal.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); %RealNorm = A(:,3) ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); %AprNorm = A(:,6) x = [1:30]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) axis([ ]) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,aprnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('april 2015 Temperature Departure')

32 ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') AprilPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,aprilprecip,'g') area(aprilprecip) title('april 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% MAY 2015 clc clear all A = load('may2015_tempcomp.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); %RealNorm = A(:,3) ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); %MayNorm = A(:,6) x = [1:31]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) axis([ ]) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,maynorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('may 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') MayPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,mayprecip,'g') area(mayprecip) title('may 2015 Precipitation (QPF)')

33 ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% JUNE 2015 clc clear all A = load('june2015_tempcomp.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); %RealNorm = A(:,3) ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); %JulNorm = A(:,6) x = [1:30]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) axis([ ]) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,junnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('june 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') JunePrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,juneprecip,'g') area(juneprecip) title('june 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% JULY 2015 clc clear all A = load('july2015_tempcomp.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2);

34 %RealNorm = A(:,3) ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); %JulNorm = A(:,6) x = [1:31]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) axis([ ]) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,julnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('july 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') JulyPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,julyprecip,'g') area(julyprecip) title('july 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% AUGUST 2015 clc clear all A = load('august2015_tempcomp.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); %RealNorm = A(:,3) ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); %AugNorm = A(:,6) x = [1:31]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2)

35 plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,augnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('august 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') AugustPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,augustprecip,'g') area(augustprecip) title('august 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% SEPTEMBER 2015 clc clear all A = load('september2015_tempcompfinal.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); %RealNorm = A(:,3) ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); %SepNorm = A(:,6) x = [1:30]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,octnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('september 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature')

36 SeptemberPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,septemberprecip,'g') area(septemberprecip) title('september 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% OCTOBER 2015 clc clear all A = load('october2015_tempcompfinal.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); RealNorm = A(:,3); ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); OctNorm = A(:,6); x = [1:31]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,octnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('october 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') OctoberPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,octoberprecip,'g') area(octoberprecip) title('october 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% NOVEMBER 2015

37 clc clear all A = load('november2015_tempcomp.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); RealNorm = A(:,3); ActHigh = A(:,4); ActLow = A(:,5); OctNorm = A(:,6); x = [1:30]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) axis([ ]) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,octnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('november 2015 Temperature Departure') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') NovemberPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,novemberprecip,'g') area(novemberprecip) title('november 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') xlabel('time (Calendar Day)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% DECEMBER 2015 clc clear all A = load('december2015_tempcomp.csv'); HighNorm = A(:,1); LowNorm = A(:,2); RealNorm = A(:,3); ActHigh = A(:,4);

38 ActLow = A(:,5); OctNorm = A(:,6); x = [1:31]; plot(x,lownorm,'--k','linewidth',2) axis([ ]) plot(x,actlow,'b','linewidth',2) plot(x,acthigh,'r','linewidth',2) plot(x,highnorm,'--k','linewidth',2) % plot(x,realnorm,'--k','linewidth',3) % % plot(x,octnorm,'m','linewidth',2) title('december 2015 Temperature Departure') xlabel('time (Calendar Day)') ylabel('temperature (F)') legend('normal Temperature','2015 Low Temperature','2015 High Temperature') DecemberPrecip = A(:,7); plot(x,decemberprecip,'g') area(decemberprecip) title('december 2015 Precipitation (QPF)') xlabel('time (Calendar Day)') ylabel('precipitation (Inches)') colormap(summer) %% ANALYSIS