APPENDIX M LAKE ELEVATION AND FLOW RELEASES SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS

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1 APPENDIX M LAKE ELEVATION AND FLOW RELEASES SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS RESULTS

2 Appendix M Lake Elevation and Flow Releases Sensitivity Analysis Results Figure M-1 Lake Jocassee Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ) Appendix M-1

3 Figure M-2 Lake Jocassee Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ) Appendix M-2

4 Figure M-3 Lake Keowee Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ) Appendix M-3

5 Figure M-4 Lake Keowee Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ) Appendix M-4

6 Figure M-5 Hartwell Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ) Appendix M-5

7 Figure M-6 Hartwell Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ) Appendix M-6

8 Figure M-7 RBR Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ( ) Appendix M-7

9 Figure M-8 RBR Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ) Appendix M-8

10 Figure M-9 JST Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ) Appendix M-9

11 Figure M-10 JST Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology ) Appendix M-10

12 Figure M-11 Lake Jocassee Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-11

13 Figure M-12 Lake Jocassee Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-12

14 Figure M-13 Lake Keowee Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-13

15 Figure M-14 Lake Keowee Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-14

16 Figure M-15 Hartwell Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-15

17 Figure M-16 Hartwell Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-16

18 Figure M-17 RBR Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-17

19 Figure M-18 RBR Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-18

20 Figure M-19 JST Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-19

21 Figure M-20 JST Lake Modeled Reservoir Elevations (Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology ) Appendix M-20

22 Table M-1 Annual Average JST Lake Flow Releases From April 1 December 31 During Drought Years Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology Year Average Flow (cfs) Percent Difference Compared with NAA/A1 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 A2 A3 A ,802 5,802 5,837 5, % 0.6% 0.6% ,509 6,509 6,474 6, % -0.6% -0.5% ,985 7,985 8,005 7, % 0.2% 0.1% ,856 6,856 6,820 6, % -0.5% -0.3% ,815 7,815 7,788 7, % -0.3% -0.4% ,234 6,234 6,202 6, % -0.5% -0.4% ,158 7,158 7,046 7, % -1.6% -1.6% ,634 6,634 6,648 6, % 0.2% 0.2% ,142 5,142 5,159 5, % 0.3% 0.3% ,459 4,459 4,339 4, % -2.7% -2.3% ,783 4,793 4,747 4, % -0.8% -1.3% ,027 7,034 7,204 7, % 2.4% 2.4% ,776 6,776 6,777 6, % 0.0% 0.0% ,864 7,864 7,930 7, % 0.8% 0.8% ,480 5,480 5,374 5, % -2.0% -2.0% ,509 7,509 7,578 7, % 0.9% 0.9% ,691 5,691 5,773 5, % 1.4% 1.3% ,939 9,939 10,016 10, % 0.8% 0.8% ,269 8,269 8,279 8, % 0.1% -0.1% ,095 4,095 4,057 4, % -0.9% -0.8% ,626 6,626 6,632 6, % 0.1% 0.1% ,183 9,183 9,085 9, % -1.1% -1.0% ,199 5,199 5,142 5, % -1.1% -1.2% ,978 3,976 3,938 3, % -1.0% -1.0% ,205 5,208 5,130 5, % -1.5% -1.5% ,946 3,946 4,032 4, % 2.1% 2.1% ,985 7,007 7,116 7, % 1.8% 1.8% ,802 5,802 5,794 5, % -0.1% -0.2% ,948 6,944 6,874 6, % -1.1% -1.2% ,935 9,941 9,789 9, % -1.5% -1.1% ,324 7,324 7,341 7, % 0.2% 0.2% ,559 8,559 8,536 8, % -0.3% -0.3% ,832 4,790 4,711 4, % -2.6% -1.8% ,225 4,223 4,236 4, % 0.2% 0.2% ,918 3,918 3,918 3, % 0.0% 0.0% ,069 4,103 4,040 4, % -0.7% -0.5% ,761 9,785 9,780 9, % 0.2% 0.2% ,746 7,746 7,743 7, % 0.0% -0.2% ,333 4,333 4,314 4, % -0.4% -1.0% ,126 4,127 4,127 4, % 0.0% 0.0% ,737 3,731 3,732 3, % -0.1% -0.1% ,006 5,989 6,162 6, % 2.5% 1.8% ,260 5,249 5,116 5, % -2.8% -2.8% ,426 4,427 4,495 4, % 1.5% 1.5% Drought Year Average 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% Drought Year Minimum -0.9% -2.8% -2.8% Drought Year Maximum 0.8% 2.5% 2.4% Table M-2 Monthly Average Flow Releases From April 1 December 31 During Drought Years Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology Month Average Flow (cfs) Percent Difference Compared with NAA/A1 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 A2 A3 A4 April 9,503 9,517 9,520 9, % 0.2% 0.1% May 6,476 6,475 6,590 6, % 1.7% 1.8% June 5,288 5,286 5,270 5, % -0.3% -0.8% July 5,857 5,854 5,916 5, % 1.0% 1.0% August 5,730 5,728 5,724 5, % -0.1% 0.1% September 5,148 5,147 5,144 5, % -0.1% -0.1% October 5,002 5,009 4,906 4, % -2.0% -2.0% November 5,789 5,774 5,712 5, % -1.4% -1.2% December 7,312 7,318 7,256 7, % -0.8% -0.8% Drought Year Average 0.0% -0.2% -0.2% Drought Year Minimum -0.3% -2.0% -2.0% Drought Year Maximum 0.1% 1.7% 1.8% Appendix M-21

23 Table M-3 Annual Average JST Lake Flow Releases From April 1 December 31 During Drought Years Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology Year Average Flow (cfs) Percent Difference Compared with NAA/A1 NAA/A1 A2 A3 A4 A2 A3 A ,896 6,896 6,799 6, % -1.4% -1.9% ,604 5,603 5,502 5, % -1.9% -1.9% ,875 5,875 5,977 5, % 1.7% 1.7% ,869 7,869 7,714 7, % -2.0% -1.8% ,194 6,194 6,182 6, % -0.2% -1.1% ,115 7,115 7,134 7, % 0.3% 0.0% ,528 7,527 7,453 7, % -1.0% -1.1% ,929 5,929 5,881 5, % -0.8% -1.0% ,793 6,794 6,768 6, % -0.4% 0.0% ,331 6,359 6,359 6, % 0.4% 0.7% ,055 5,055 5,061 5, % 0.1% -0.1% ,102 4,103 4,086 4, % -0.4% -0.4% ,378 4,355 4,389 4, % 0.2% 0.5% ,487 6,464 6,696 6, % 3.1% 2.9% ,262 6,262 6,355 6, % 1.5% 1.4% ,753 6,752 6,696 6, % -0.8% -0.9% ,528 6,530 6,502 6, % -0.4% -0.4% ,566 7,566 7,581 7, % 0.2% 0.2% ,132 6,132 6,206 6, % 1.2% 1.1% ,461 6,461 6,463 6, % 0.0% 0.0% ,217 5,310 5,216 5, % 0.0% -0.1% ,056 7,013 7,195 7, % 1.9% 1.9% ,615 5,614 5,568 5, % -0.8% -0.8% ,587 9,586 9,658 9, % 0.7% 0.8% ,158 8,159 8,159 8, % 0.0% 0.1% ,013 4,013 4,086 4, % 1.8% 1.8% ,231 6,189 6,274 6, % 0.7% 0.7% ,866 8,902 8,850 8, % -0.2% -0.1% ,996 4,986 4,999 5, % 0.1% 0.6% ,937 3,873 3,854 3, % -2.1% -2.2% ,038 5,038 5,051 5, % 0.3% -0.1% ,952 3,909 3,887 3, % -1.7% -1.9% ,298 6,382 6,480 6, % 2.8% 2.1% ,684 5,677 5,766 5, % 1.4% 1.9% ,133 8,133 8,083 8, % -0.6% -0.5% ,662 6,647 6,540 6, % -1.9% -1.8% ,286 9,314 9,433 9, % 1.6% 1.3% ,809 6,809 6,869 6, % 0.9% 0.3% ,067 7,063 7,049 7, % -0.3% -0.3% ,237 8,237 8,228 8, % -0.1% -0.2% ,472 4,477 4,377 4, % -2.2% -2.5% ,185 4,184 4,115 4, % -1.7% -1.4% ,935 3,920 3,920 3, % -0.4% -0.4% ,771 3,794 3,763 3, % -0.2% -0.4% ,353 9,230 9,386 9, % 0.4% 0.4% ,032 7,386 7,345 7, % 4.3% 4.3% ,203 4,205 4,156 4, % -1.1% -1.1% ,984 3,977 3,969 3, % -0.4% -1.2% ,708 3,041 3,669 3, % -1.1% -0.1% ,274 5,547 5,288 5, % 0.3% -1.0% ,008 5,008 4,997 4, % -0.2% -0.6% ,243 4,242 4,276 4, % 0.8% 2.2% Drought Year Average -0.3% % Drought Year Minimum -22.0% -2.2% -2.5% Drought Year Maximum 4.9% 4.3% 4.3% Table M-4 Monthly Average Flow Releases From April 1 December 31 During Drought Years Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology Month Average Flow (cfs) Percent Difference Compared with NAA/A1 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 A2 A3 A4 April 9,097 9,087 9,098 9, % 0.0% -0.2% May 6,544 6,506 6,623 6, % 1.2% 0.9% June 5,301 5,330 5,304 5, % 0.1% 0.3% July 5,804 5,795 5,869 5, % 1.1% 1.4% August 5,837 5,859 5,913 5, % 1.3% 1.2% September 5,045 5,045 4,952 4, % -1.9% -1.5% October 4,771 4,729 4,713 4, % -1.2% -1.3% November 5,442 5,460 5,383 5, % -1.1% -1.7% December 6,848 6,853 6,906 6, % 0.8% 0.8% Drought Year Average 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Drought Year Minimum -0.9% -1.9% -1.7% Drought Year Maximum 0.5% 1.3% 1.4% Appendix M-22

24 Year Table M-5 Annual Summary of Days Within Drought Levels Future Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology Drought Level 1 Drought Level 2 Drought Level 3 Total NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A Appendix M-23

25 Year Drought Level 1 Drought Level 2 Drought Level 3 Total NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A Total Drought Level 1 4,000-4,200 cfs Drought Level 2 3,800-4,000 cfs 3,600 cfs (Nov - Jan) Drought Level 3 3,800 cfs 3,100 cfs (Nov - Jan) Table M-6 Annual Summary of Days Within Drought Levels Current Water Withdrawals with Historical Hydrology Year Drought Level 1 Drought Level 2 Drought Level 3 Total NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A Appendix M-24

26 Year Drought Level 1 Drought Level 2 Drought Level 3 Total NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A Total Drought Level 1 4,000-4,200 cfs Drought Level 2 3,800-4,000 cfs 3,600 cfs (Nov - Jan) Drought Level 3 3,800 cfs 3,100 cfs (Nov - Jan) Table M-7 Annual Summary of Days Within Drought Levels Future Water Withdrawals with Climate Change Hydrology Year Drought Level 1 Drought Level 2 Drought Level 3 Total NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A Appendix M-25

27 Year Drought Level 1 Drought Level 2 Drought Level 3 Total NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A4 NAA / A1 A2 A3 A Total Drought Level 1 4,000-4,200 cfs Drought Level 2 3,800-4,000 cfs 3,600 cfs (Nov - Jan) Drought Level 3 3,800 cfs 3,100 cfs (Nov - Jan) Appendix M-26

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