The Pennsylvania Observer

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1 The Pennsylvania Observer January 5, 2009 December 2008 Pennsylvania Weather Recap The final month of 2008 was much wetter than average and a bit colder than normal. In spite of this combination, most of the southern half of the Commonwealth measured below average snowfall. The month began with an intense storm over the Great Lakes that brought chilly air into Pennsylvania on gusty winds from the west. Snow showers followed on the 2 nd with a light to moderate accumulation (2-5 inches) from the northwest counties to the Laurel Highlands. After a dry, cool period, a cold front crossed the state with rain showers on the 4 th. This was followed by chilly conditions with several Alberta Clippers producing snow showers in the hilly terrain of the state. A slow moving soggy front, preceded by very mild air, crossed the state on December 10 th and then stalled just south of Pennsylvania. A complex disturbance from the Gulf States moved up the Atlantic Seaboard as cold air held its ground in central and northern sections of the state. The result was a serious ice storm from the central mountains into the Poconos. As the low approached, ice changed to snow in northern counties leaving as much as 8-10 inches from Coudersport to Lake Wallenpaupack. After a very cold weekend from Dec 12-14, milder air quickly returned as a new disturbance arrived. Freezing rain once again produced treacherous travel for the northern and central sections on December 17. A pair of disturbances from the northwest brought successively colder air into the Commonwealth until we bottomed out on December 22 with readings between -5F in the northwest and 12F in the southeast accompanied by 25-40mph winds. As the cold air receded, a wedge of warm, moist air streamed in early on Christmas Eve. Much of the state had several hours of freezing rain during the morning. Some sections received another half inch of ice before temperatures crept through the s. Periods of heavy rain dropped another inch of liquid before rain ended just before Christmas. Only the northern half of the state saw a stale white Christmas. A rapid warming trend brought record maximum temperatures to western Pennsylvania on Dec 27 and eastern parts of the state on December 29. The corridor from Reading to Allentown and southward notched afternoon readings into the 60 s. A fast moving cold front caused gusty winds and temperatures to fall back to near seasonal levels. As the month ended, another push of polar air arrived with snow showers and squalls in parts of northwest Pennsylvania. Overall, temperatures averaged between 0.5 and 2.0F below normal while much of the state measured more than 200% of the normal liquid equivalent.

2 Here are the weather extremes across Pennsylvania (observations taken at 8AM EDT) during December 2008 from the NWS Cooperative & ASOS Networks. The extremes occurred in the 24-hour period prior to the date listed. Parameter Location Value Date (8 AM EDT) County Highest Temperature Washington 69 F December 27 th Washington Lowest Temperature Coudersport -5 F December 22 nd Potter Greatest Cumulative Liquid Precipitation Chalk Hill Fayette Least Cumulative Liquid Precipitation Sabinsville Tioga Greatest Cumulative Snowfall Chandlers Valley 24" - Warren

3 Weather Stories Study: Global warming will challenge ski industry :%20Global%20warming%20will%20challenge%20ski%20industry Weather in the Poconos hit all extremes in Ice or no ice, fish are eating and catchable throughout winter Potholes are back Utilities report rise in homes without heat ithout_heat.html

4 The Pennsylvania Observer January Climate Highlight: January s Climate Highlight features an analysis that compares the dew point trend over the past few decades. Two cities, Philadelphia and Pittsburgh were chosen for this study and two different data sets were used. The first set consists of dew point data that was measured by FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) and COOP (National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program) stations. The second set consists of dew point data from the NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) database. NARR is a long-term, dynamically consistent, high-resolution, high-frequency, atmospheric and land surface hydrology dataset for the North American domain. It covers the period ranging from The comparison of dew point trends over the past few decades are shown first for Pittsburgh and second Philadelphia. There is a strong correlation between the observed data and the NARR data, thus proving the reliability of the NARR data as a good proxy for actual observations. The graphs below show that average dew points have been on the rise since the 1960s. There is a gradual increase in the monthly average dew points for Philadelphia and Pittsburgh, with the exception occurring in July and September in Pittsburgh and May in Philadelphia according to the NARR data.

5 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh dew point trends over the past four decades using COOP (National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program) and FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) data. Each Graph is the monthly average for each respective month for each year from 1961 through The corresponding trend line is shown as well. Figure 1 Average January Dew Point for PIT Figure 2 Average Feburary Dew Point for PIT

6 Figure 3 Average March Dew Point for PIT Figure 4 Average April Dew Point for PIT Figures 1-4: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Pittsburgh over the past five decades from January to April.

7 Figure 5 Average May Dew Point for PIT Figure 6 Average June Dew Point for PIT

8 Figure 7 Average July Dew Point for PIT Figure 8 Average August Dew Point for PIT Figures 5-8: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Pittsburgh over the past five decades from May to August.

9 Figure 9 Average September Dew Point for PIT Figure 10 Average October Dew Point for PIT

10 Figure 11 Average November Dew Point for PIT Figure 12 Average December Dew Point for PIT Figures 9-12: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Pittsburgh over the past five decades from September to December.

11 Pittsburgh Pittsburgh dew point trends over the past four decades using NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) data. Each Graph is the monthly average for each respective month for each year from 1961 through The corresponding trend line is shown as well. Figure 13 Average January Dew Point for PIT Figure 14 Average February Dew Point for PIT

12 Figure 15 Average March Dew Point for PIT Figure 16 Average April Dew Point for PIT Figures 13-16: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Pittsburgh over the past three decades from January to April.

13 Figure 17 Average May Dew Point for PIT Figure 18 Average June Dew Point for PIT

14 Figure 19 Average July Dew Point for PIT Figure 20 Average August Dew Point for PIT Figures 17-20: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Pittsburgh over the past three decades in May, June, and August, but a decrease in July.

15 Figure 21 Average September Dew Point for PIT Figure 22 Average October Dew Point for PIT

16 Figure 23 Average November Dew Point for PIT Figure 24 Average December Dew Point for PIT Figures 21-24: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Pittsburgh over the past three decades in October, November, and December, but a decrease in September.

17 Philadelphia using COOP/FAA Data Philadelphia dew point trends over the past four decades using COOP (National Weather Service Cooperative Observer Program) and FAA (Federal Aviation Administration) data. Each Graph is the monthly average for each respective month for each year from 1961 through The corresponding trend line is shown as well. Figure 25 Average January Dew Point for PHL Figure 26 Average February Dew Point for PHL

18 Figure 27 Average March Dew Point for PHL Figure 28 Average April Dew Point for PHL Figures 25-28: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Philadelphia over the past five decades from January to April.

19 Figure 29 Average May Dew Point for PHL Figure Average June Dew Point for PHL

20 Figure 31 Average July Dew Point for PHL Figure 32 Average August Dew Point for PHL Figures 29-32: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Philadelphia over the past five decades from May to August.

21 Figure 33 Average September Dew Point for PHL Figure 34 Average October Dew Point for PHL

22 Figure Average November Dew Point for PHL Figure 36 Average December Dew Point for PHL Figures 33-36: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Philadelphia over the past five decades from September to December.

23 Philadelphia Philadelphia dew point trends over the past four decades using NARR (North American Regional Reanalysis) data. Each Graph is the monthly average for each respective month for each year from 1961 through The corresponding trend line is shown as well. Figure 37 Average January Dew Point for PHL Figure 38 Average February Dew Point for PHL

24 Figure 39 Average March Dew Point for PHL Figure 40 Average April Dew Point for PHL Figures 37-40: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Philadelphia over the past three decades from January to April.

25 Figure 41 Average May Dew Point for PHL Figure 42 Average June Dew Point for PHL

26 Figure 43 Average July Dew Point for PHL Figure 44 Average August Dew Point for PHL Figures 41-44: Only the average May dew point shows a decrease in the trend from

27 Figure 45 Average September Dew Point for PHL Figure 46 Average October Dew Point for PHL

28 Figure 47 Average November Dew Point for PHL Figure 48 Average December Dew Point for PHL Figures 45-48: The trend shows an increase in the average dew point in Philadelphia over the past three decades from September to December.

29 The Pennsylvania Observer Outlook Experimental Long Range Outlook for Pennsylvania: January 2008 February 2009 The cold region from Montana to Wisconsin was selected as well as the warmth from Louisiana to Virginia.

30 The dry area from Texas and eastern New Mexico to Kansas was selected as well as the moist region from Montana to Michigan and much of the interior Southwest. These are the Analog Years: Initialization = December 2008 with 1 Mon Lag Averaged Climate Division Data Total Climate Divisions Mapped = 178 Year 1951 matches 57.14% Anom Regions 69.66% Climate Divs Year 1972 matches 42.86% Anom Regions 67.42% Climate Divs Year 1984 matches 42.86% Anom Regions 62.92% Climate Divs Year 1971 matches 42.86% Anom Regions 53.37% Climate Divs Year 1922 matches 28.57% Anom Regions 53.37% Climate Divs Year 1933 matches 14.29% Anom Regions 52.81% Climate Divs Year 2007 matches 42.86% Anom Regions 51.69% Climate Divs Year 1996 matches 42.86% Anom Regions 51.69% Climate Divs Year 1990 matches 28.57% Anom Regions 51.69% Climate Divs

31 Year 1948 matches 14.29% Anom Regions 50.56% Climate Divs Year 1964 matches 28.57% Anom Regions 47.75% Climate Divs Year 1982 matches 42.86% Anom Regions 46.63% Climate Divs

32

33 Western Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast January - February Mean Temperature Departure from Normal (deg F) /1 1/3 1/5 1/7 1/9 1/11 1/13 1/15 1/17 1/19 1/21 1/23 1/25 1/27 1/29 1/31 2/2 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/10 2/12 2/14 2/16 2/18 2/20 2/22 2/24 2/26 2/28 3/2 Date Mean Average Error: 7.0 F -- Mean Departure from Normal: 8.5 F Forecast 5-Day Mean Forecast Verification 5-Day Mean Verification Normal

34 Central Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast January - February 2009 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal (deg F) /1 1/3 1/5 1/7 1/9 1/11 1/13 1/15 1/17 1/19 1/21 1/23 1/25 1/27 1/29 1/31 2/2 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/10 2/12 2/14 2/16 2/18 2/20 2/22 2/24 2/26 2/28 3/2 Mean Average Error: 3.8 F -- Mean Departure from Normal: 6.9 F Forecast 5-Day Mean Forecast Verification 5-Day Mean Verification Normal

35 Eastern Pennsylvania Temperature Forecast January - February 2009 Mean Temperature Departure from Normal (deg F) /1 1/3 1/5 1/7 1/9 1/11 1/13 1/15 1/17 1/19 1/21 1/23 1/25 1/27 1/29 1/31 2/2 2/4 2/6 2/8 2/10 2/12 2/14 2/16 2/18 2/20 2/22 2/24 2/26 2/28 3/2 Mean Average Error: 4.0 F -- Mean Departure from Normal: 7.5 F Forecast 5-Day Mean Forecast Verification 5-Day Mean Verification Normal

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