2018 FORECAST ACCURACY BENCHMARKING SURVEY AND ENERGY TRENDS. Mark Quan
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1 2018 FORECAST ACCURACY BENCHMARKING SURVEY AND ENERGY TRENDS Mark Quan
2 Please Remember» Phones are Muted: In order to help this session run smoothly, your phones are muted.» Full Screen Mode: To make the presentation portion of the screen larger, press the expand button on the toolbar. Press it again to return to regular window.» Questions: If you want to ask a question, type your question in the chat or Q&A boxes. We will address it as soon as we can.» Recording will be posted online. A link to download the recording and pdf when it is available.
3 U.S. ELECTRICITY SALES (TWH) Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales Data updated through December 2017
4 ANNUAL ELECTRICITY SALES (TWH) Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales Data updated through December 2017
5 2015 WEATHER CDD65 Departure from Normal HDD65 Departure from Normal Very mild summer Warm winter High Plains Regional Climate Center (
6 2016 WEATHER CDD65 Departure from Normal HDD65 Departure from Normal Very mild summer Warm winter High Plains Regional Climate Center (
7 2017 WEATHER CDD65 Departure from Normal HDD65 Departure from Normal Very mild summer Warm winter High Plains Regional Climate Center (
8 2018 WEATHER 2018 Winter looks like a mixed bag 2018 Summers looks hot 8
9 U.S. NATURAL GAS SALES (BCF) Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales Data updated through December 2017
10 U.S. NATURAL GAS SALES (BCF) Computed as 12 month moving sum of monthly class sales Data updated through December 2017
11 UNITED STATES RETAIL GAS SALES 2008 Cold in Midwest 2013 Normal Winter 2009 Cold in Midwest 2014 Cold East/Warm West 2010 Cold Winter in Southeast 2015 Warm Winter 2011 Cold Winter in West 2016 Warm Winter 2012 Warm Winter 2017 Warm Winter
12 REAL ELECTRICITY PRICES ($2012/MWH) Computed as 12 month moving average of monthly $/MWh by class Data updated through December 2017
13 REAL GAS PRICES ($2012/MCF) Computed as 12 month moving average of average $/MCF Data updated through December 2017
14 2018 BENCHMARKING SURVEY Number of Respondents 2018 Respondents represent 2,553 Billion kwh of electric sales and BCF of natural gas in North America Weights are approximate energy weights used in the weighted average calculations
15 REGIONS
16 CUSTOMER GROWTH Forecast Average Residential 0.83% Commercial 0.82% South and West drive growth
17 RESIDENTIAL SALES (%) Forecast Average: Survey 0.24% Itron WN 0.20% Canada, South and West drive growth
18 COMMERCIAL SALES (%) Forecast Expect upward revision Average: Survey 0.43% Itron WN 0.53% Canada and West drive growth
19 INDUSTRIAL SALES (%) Forecast Average: Survey 0.36% South drives growth Declines in Canada and West.
20 TOTAL (SYSTEM) SALES (%) Forecast Expect upward revision Average: Survey 0.30% Itron WN 0.19% South and West drive growth
21 PEAK FORECASTS (%) Average: Survey 0.15% Forecast
22 FORECAST CHARACTERISTICS PV and EV Stability show up in in EV and PV inclusion. Storage Storage is now included in Growth expected in California and Hawaii* Storage economics are expected to improve with time-of-use rates *U.S. Energy Storage Monitor from Wood Mackenzie Power & Renewable Energy Consulting and the Energy Storage Association
23 IS YOUR COMPANY BEGINNING TO ASK ABOUT STORAGE IN THE FORECAST?
24 FORECAST CHARACTERISTICS
25 IN 2017, I GENERATED A FORECAST FOR:
26 ANNUAL FORECAST ACCURACY Electric Responses (MAPE) Natural Gas Responses (MAPE) : Mild Winter Results are unweighted
27 MONTHLY ELECTRIC FORECAST ACCURACY Average Monthly Model Errors Averages Residential: 3.76% Commercial: 3.03% Industrial: 3.87%
28 RES/COM ERRORS Against Normalized Actuals Against Actuals Actual below Forecast Actual above Forecast Actual below Forecast Actual above Forecast Very mild summer and warm winter
29 Number of Companies Number of Companies SYSTEM ERRORS Against Normalized Actuals Against Actuals Actual below Forecast Actual above Forecast Actual below Forecast Actual above Forecast Very mild summer and warm winter
30 WHEN I REPORT MY PEAK ERRORS, I AM REPORTING A:
31 RELATIONSHIP WITH ECONOMICS
32 NATURAL GAS Actual below Forecast Actual above Forecast Small sample. Fifteen companies reporting results
33 2018 ELECTRIC SYSTEM FORECAST Historic Growth: Linear through TWh/Year Survey Growth: About 0.55% 21 TWh/Year* Forecast is the sum of Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sales
34 2018 NATURAL GAS FORECAST Average 16.6 BCF/Year Survey Growth: Flat Positive growth in residential and commercial is offset by negative growth in industrial. Forecast is the sum of Residential, Commercial, and Industrial sales
35 PAST FORECASTS
36 FORECASTING BLOG
37 SCHEDULED EVENTS Workshops Dates Location Fundamentals of Modeling Energy and Demand Forecasting October 24-26, 2018 Chicago, IL Fundamentals of Short-term Operational Forecasting September 18-19, 2018 San Diego, CA Energy Forecasting 101 February 25-27, 2019 San Francisco, CA Introduction to SAE April 2, 2019 Boston, MA Advanced Forecast Topics April 2, 2019 Boston, MA Meetings 17th Annual Energy Forecasting Meeting April 3-5, 2019 Boston, MA 13th Annual ISO Forecasting Summit TBD TBD European User Meeting TBD TBD Itron Utility Week TBD TBD Webinars Short-term Load Forecasting A Practitioner s Handbook December 4, 2018 On-line
38 THANK YOU SAN DIEGO Mark Quan
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