2013 WEATHER NORMALIZATION SURVEY. Industry Practices

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1 2013 WEATHER NORMALIZATION SURVEY Industry Practices

2 FORECASTING SPECIALIZATION Weather Operational Forecasting Short-term Forecasting to support: System Operations and Energy Trading Hourly Load Financial/Budget Forecasting One to three years: Sales forecasts Revenue forecasts Variance analysis Daily Sales Load Research Load Research System for Rate Class Load Shape Estimation Capacity Planning Long-term Sales, Peak and Hourly Load Forecasting Monthly Sales PV Demand Response Wind Monthly Revenue Short Term (e.g, 7 day) Medium Term (e.g, budget year) Long Term (e.g, 5 20 years)

3 2013 Weather Normalization Survey» In November 2013, Itron surveyed energy forecasters in North America. The goal was to understand the current industry practices in Weather Normalization.» The survey consisted of two main areas: Weather Normalization Models Normal Weather Definition» A total of 135 responses were obtained. 55% of Energy in U.S. and Canada Distribution. Category includes any company with distribution customers. Gas only companies represent 5% of all responses.

4 Normalization Purpose Question 8: What is the weather normalization used for? Planning was categorized separately from the other responses and includes price forecasting, distribution planning, transmission planning, and general analysis. Other includes 3 responses that indicated weather normalization is not performed.

5 WEATHER NORMALIZATION MODEL QUESTIONS

6 Data Frequency Question 9: What is the frequency of the data that you weather normalize? 132 Responses. Monthly data indicates monthly weather normalization. Daily data indicates daily periodicity and daily weather normalization. Neither includes two responses that weather normalization is not performed. The remaining responses indicate that weather normalization is performed, but provide no details on the data frequency used.

7 Frequency of Model Re-estimation/Redefinition Question 10: How often do you update (re-estimate or redefine) your weather normalization model? 23.4% Under 1 Year 10.4% Over 1 Year 124 Responses. Other responses include recalculation on an as needed basis.

8 Weather Normalization Classes Question 11: What do you normalize? Over 70% of all Respondents 135 company responses. Other includes government, irrigation, wholesale, and farm classes.

9 HDD and CDD Cut Points 190 Heating Responses, 174 Cooling Responses Includes Residential, Commercial, Industrial, and System Models responses Single Cut Point = Reports only a single part spline Multiple Cut Points = Reports multiple part splines

10 Heating Response Modeling 68 Responses 99 Responses Definitions: HDD = Interactions = Other = HDD/Int/Oth = None = Use HDD or HDD Splines Only Use HDD interacted with another variable Use additional weather variables, but no interactions Use HDD, interactions, and additional variables Do not normalize for Heating Top Descriptions: Other = Wind, Cloudcover Interaction = Day Type Predominately HDD or HDD Interactions 95 Responses 54 Responses

11 Cooling Response Modeling 68 Responses 99 Responses Definitions: CDD = Interactions = Other = CDD/Int/Oth = THI = None = Use CDD or CDD Splines Only Use CDD interacted with another variable Use additional weather variables, but no interactions Use CDD, interactions, and additional variables Use THI, not CDD. May include interactions or other variables Do not normalize for Cooling Top Descriptions: Other = Dewpoint/Humidity, Cloudcover Interaction = Day Type 95 Responses 54 Responses Predominately CDD or CDD Interactions, except for System Models

12 WEATHER NORMALIZATION WEATHER QUESTIONS

13 Years For Normal Weather Question 23: How many years of data do you use to define normal monthly weather? Mostly due to shorter time horizons 2013 Survey: 126 Responses 2006 Survey: 106 Responses Other includes years and methods that cannot be classified into the specified categories

14 Changes To the Number of Years 125 Responses 2006 Survey 115 Responses 25% have changed the number of years

15 Frequency of Updates Question 25: Do you update the historical period each year? 124 Responses 2006 Survey 114 Responses 69% Update on an annual basis

16 Oversight of Method 2013 Survey 123 Responses 2006 Survey 166 Responses 13% have regulatory specified normal Climate Change 124 Responses 11 Companies responded that they have methods other than changing the number of years

17 CONCLUSIONS» Classes. Predominately Residential and Commercial classes.» Weather Variables. Mostly HDD and CDD variables and interactions - Primarily single cut points - Daytype Interactions are used to improve responses Next most important variables are Wind Speed, Cloud Cover, DewPoint/Humidity» Normal Weather Calculation. The normal weather calculation is still dominated by 30-year averages, but there is a transition to using shorter averages.» Normal Weather Updates. Most companies update the normal weather calculation each year to remain current with the lasted weather information

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