Verification Of January HDD Forecasts

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Daisy Payne
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Verification Of January HDD Forecasts W2020 / Average HDD stands for Heating Degree Day. A Heating Degree Day is zero if the average temperature is 65 degrees.

1 Verification Of January HDD Forecasts W2020 / Average HDD stands for Heating Degree Day. A Heating Degree Day is zero if the average temperature is 65 degrees. An HDD of -30 would mean an average temperature of 35. This chart shows eight zip codes picked out to verify the results from January. Santa Rosa, CA is the only one on this list to come in less accurate than traditional forecast methods of using what typically happens during a month by using averages. Now, look below for more validation. The Verified January Forecasts Using The LRC These charts are what you receive with our analysis as a premium customer! The Zip Code Forecast using our Weather2020 Projection Model is coming in extremely accurate. The one zip code in our list above that was less accurate than average still had tremendous success. Just look at the forecast for the higher HDD totals and lower HDD totals in Santa Rosa, CA, the upper left graphic. The pattern is cycling and you can see the cycle very well. Even though the results were not as accurate as that blue average line predicted during January, the forecast of when it would be warmer and when it would be colder was almost spot on. On the second map on the right, the much more accurate one from Grand Rapids, MI the trends again are still there and forecast quite well, but the success in this one over a one month stretch was phenomenal. When you are using this data, you have to try very hard to analyze over 20 to 40 day stretches. Important point: In these reports and in our videos we will be picking out the periods when we see that the automated system will be off by a few HDDs. By next winter we will be working on adding these adjustments into the equations and this will become even more accurate next winter.

Forecast: More Like October Than December February 10 th Temperatures February 17 th Temperatures This map shows the Arctic Air mass that was generated by the recent blocking.

Arctic Air May Be Held Up North IMPACTS There have been two previous cycles of this years weather pattern. In October the Arctic Air stayed on the other side of the Northern Hemisphere.

If it is like October, it will more likely be held up to the north. Weather2020 forecasted January would warm up with the best chance of the Arctic Air retreat to arrive in mid- January.

2 Forecast: More Like October Than December February 10 th Temperatures February 17 th Temperatures This map shows the Arctic Air mass that was generated by the recent blocking. It is about to exit most of Canada, but after at least one surge into the USA. Look at what happens by February 17 th. If this model holds, then the Arctic air will retreat again right on schedule. Arctic Air May Be Held Up North IMPACTS There have been two previous cycles of this years weather pattern. In October the Arctic Air stayed on the other side of the Northern Hemisphere. It was stuck on the Siberia and Asia side. Arctic air has built over onto the North American side in recent days and it has been building. If it is like October, it will more likely be held up to the north. Weather2020 forecasted January would warm up with the best chance of the Arctic Air retreat to arrive in mid- January. It is happening right on schedule! It may surprise you, but December was not as cold as it may have seemed. Here is what happened in December. Looking Ahead Through March Arctic Air Retreat Happens Again In February Just like in January, the Arctic air will retreat north. There are two chances of the Arctic air blasting south. One will happen before the 20 th of February. And, then there is one more chance in the first ten days of March. Overall we are forecasting above average temperatures and below average HDDs between now and April 1 st. WEATHER 2020 Is Monitoring The Arcic Air Closely. ARCTIC OUTBREAK LESS LIKELY IN FEBRUARY! There will likely be an Arctic surge around the 9 th of February but then, as you can see on the map above, another retreat of the Arctic air is likely.

3 Our Winter Forecast As Compared To What Has Happened So Far The top map shows the verification of what has happened over the past 90 days, and the bottom map shows what our forecast for the winter was as issued on November 17th. Most of the nation has been either at what we had forecast or a bit warmer than what we forecast, especially over New England. This trend has continued.

Weak La Niña conditions forecast to become neutral El Niño/La Niña Since 2004 La Niña is barely hanging on as we move through this first part of winter.

4 Weak La Niña conditions forecast to become neutral El Niño/La Niña Since 2004 La Niña is barely hanging on as we move through this first part of winter. It is forecast to become neutral as you can see above. This is an influence on the overall pattern, but the weather pattern will continue to cycle according to the LRC through September. An El Niño or a La Niña event becomes official whenever you have five overlapping 3-month averages of above or below 0.5 C. We just reached our third consecutive three month average of -.5 C or lower. This will likely go down as a weak La Niña winter. LA Niña & El Niño Are Only An Influence On The Overall Cycling Pattern A LOOK BACK AT EL NIÑO IMPACTS El Niño became the strongest one ever recorded this past winter. What was supposed to happen didn t quite happen. Yes, it was a warmer than average winter as Weather2020 accurately predicted. The rains never materialized in Southern California. 44 inches of rain fell in Seattle, way above average. The forecasts that came out from other sources were wrong as they predicted a dry winter across the Pacific Northwest, and a wet winter across Southern California. Instead, it was dry in Los Angeles once again. La Niña has been weak: La Niña strengthened, but then weakened rapidly. The La Niña influence has been there and we have seen some impacts. Something amazing happened as we moved into January. California got blasted by storm systems and this was supposed to happen last year in El Niño and NOT in La Niña. This is another example of something bigger going on. The LRC is the centerpiece of the big puzzle! The wet weather just experienced out west was created by the cycling pattern as described by this years LRC and not La Niña. If you were to just use La Niña then the forecast would be for a very dry winter in California. That forecast obviously has failed. Weather2020 accurately predicted these systems to blast into California weeks ago. SUPPLY & DEMAND: This winter is definitely colder than last year, but there are still very few record highs being set. Your teams should be preparing now for the two week Arctic outbreak in February. Overall, the heating demands will still only be slightly more than in an average winter. EL NIÑO Possible next winter: As you can see on the upper left graphic on this page, the forecast for the ENSO conditions to become warmer are increasingly becoming likely. This could mean El Niño next winter. Again, what will this mean for energy supply and demand? It will depend on the strength of this potential phenomenon. We will have an early look into next winter in our spring updates.

Using The Weather2020 Advantage In Planning For Future Weather Verified Forecast issued December 12 th : What to expect the rest of this month: We are expecting this week to be the last very cold one

There is a 75% chance of another Arctic blast by around New Years.

5 Using The Weather2020 Advantage In Planning For Future Weather Verified Forecast issued December 12 th : What to expect the rest of this month: We are expecting this week to be the last very cold one for a while. There will continue to be shots of cold, however, but a major moderation of the Arctic air is likely during the week before Christmas. There is a 75% chance of another Arctic blast by around New Years. Verified Forecast issued December 12 th : What to expect in January: We are forecasting the warm November part of the pattern to cycle through during January. The month may start out very cold with below average temperatures through key locations, but then a big warming trend is likely and may last for three weeks. Updated February Outlook: We are forecasting the first half of February to be near to a bit below average on temperatures and above average on HDD values. But, then the end of the month warm up will more than balance this month and many zip codes will likely end up with a warmer than average month. March Forecast: The November and January parts of the cycling pattern will be experienced. The March version will feature bigger warm ups. There will also likely be a couple major impacting winter storm systems mixed in.

Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO ):

Pacific Decadal Oscillation ( PDO ): Time again for my annual Winter Weather Outlook. Here's just a small part of the items I considered this year and how I think they will play out with our winter of 2015-2016. El Nino / La Nina: When looking