CropCast Daily Agro-Highlights Don Keeney Friday, April 22, 2016

Transcription

1 VHI Image Date: Apr 14, 2016 USA Wheat Corn Soybeans Vegetative Health Index Map and Crop Condition Tendency EUROPE Wheat Rapeseed FSU Wheat CHINA Wheat Rapeseed ARGENTINA Corn Soybeans BRAZIL Corn Soybeans S. AFRICA Corn AUSTRALIA Wheat Sorghum Vegetative Health Index (VHI) Legend Stressed Healthy Desert Snow/Ice or Missing Data Colored boxes within the map above indicate whether crop conditions will be declining or improving for each crop in each major global growing region, incorporating current conditions and the latest 10 day CropCAST forecast. Declining Neutral Improving The Midwest corn/soybean/wheat belt forecast is drier in western areas Sunday and Monday. Showers favored southeastern IA, central and southern IL, IN, OH, KY, and MI yesterday. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, with 15% coverage of corn and soybeans, and 25% of the wheat. Snow amounts were 2-8. Showers should favor eastern areas today. Showers should return to far northwestern areas on Saturday, then continue to spread across northern areas Sunday and Monday, shifting into central and southern areas on Tuesday. Amounts will be 0.25 to 1.5, with 90% coverage of corn/soybeans and wheat (unchanged from yesterday). Drier weather in central and southern areas this weekend will favor corn and soybean planting. The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. The day outlook is drier. The Plains wheat belt forecast is drier in eastern areas on Sunday. Showers favored east central TX yesterday. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.0, with less than 10% coverage. A few showers should return to eastern NE and northeastern KS on Sunday. Showers should build across NE, northern KS, and northern CO on Tuesday. Amounts should be 0.25 to 1.5, with 40% coverage (+30% from yesterday).. Additional showers in northern areas on Tuesday will further improve moisture, while moisture declines again in southwestern areas. The 6-10 day outlook is cooler in western areas. The day outlook is drier. The Brazil corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. Showers favored Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina yesterday. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.5, with less than 10% coverage. Showers should build across Parana, southwestern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Mato Grosso, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul through Tuesday. Amounts will be 0.25 to 1.5, locally 3, with 60% coverage of corn and soybeans (+10% from yesterday). Showers in south central and western areas should improve moisture a bit for safrinha corn, but more rains will still be needed. The 6-10 day outlook is drier in west central areas. Europe: China: Argentina Other Major Crop Areas Forecast is unchanged today; showers should improve moisture a bit in Italy and Former Yugoslavia. Forecast is unchanged today; dryness will continue to rebuild across North China Plain. Forecast is unchanged today; drier weather next week will allow wetness and harvest delays to ease.

2 6-10 Day Forecast: Wed Apr 27-Sun May 1 MDA 6-10 Day Temperature Forecast Wetter Delta MDA Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is wetter in the Delta. Temperatures are cooler in the western Plains. CROP IMPACT: Abundant showers in the Plains would further improve moisture for wheat, while showers in the Midwest and Delta would slow corn and soybean planting once again. The showers would further improve moisture in the western Midwest, and northern Plains. RISKS: There is a drier risk in the western Plains. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is slightly above normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble Day Forecast: Mon May 2-Fri May 6 MDA Day Temperature Forecast Drier Plains, western Midwest, Delta MDA Day Precipitation Forecast Previous Forecast Previous Forecast Model Preference: ECM Ensemble CHANGES: The precipitation outlook is drier in the Plains, central and western Midwest, and Delta. Temperatures are slightly cooler in the Midwest and Delta. CROP IMPACT: Drier weather in the central and western Midwest and Delta would favor corn and soybean planting. However, drier weather in the Plains would allow moisture to decline again. Warmer conditions in the northern Plains would favor spring wheat germination. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in the northern Delta. CONFIDENCE: Confidence in the temperature outlook is near normal. Confidence in the precipitation outlook is near normal. MODEL PREFERENCE: ECM ensemble

3 United States The Midwest wheat belt is drier in western areas Sunday and Monday. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored southeastern Iowa, central and southern Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Michigan yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor eastern areas today. Showers should return to far northwestern areas on Saturday, then continue to spread across northern areas Sunday and Monday, shifting into central and southern areas on Tuesday. CROP IMPACT: Drier weather in central and southern areas this weekend will allow corn and soybean planting to improve there. Meanwhile, showers in northern areas will slow planting a bit. The showers will, however, improve moisture in northwestern areas. Showers in southern areas on Tuesday will begin to slow planting a bit. The Delta wheat belt is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored southeastern Arkansas, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Louisiana yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should end in eastern areas today. Drier weather should prevail otherwise through Tuesday. CROP IMPACT: Active rains across the region are slowing corn and soybean planting a bit. Planting should improve this weekend and early next week, though, as rains ease. The Northern Plains wheat belt is unchanged today. The Plains wheat belt is drier in eastern areas on Sunday. PAST 24 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should return to the region late Saturday through Monday, and continue in southern areas on Tuesday. CROP IMPACT: An upturn in rains later this weekend and early next week will once again slow spring wheat planting. The rains will further improve moisture, though. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored east central Texas yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: A few showers should return to eastern Nebraska and northeastern Kansas on Sunday. Showers should build across Nebraska, northern Kansas, and northern Colorado on Tuesday. CROP IMPACT: Additional showers in northern areas on Tuesday will further improve moisture for wheat. However, moisture will begin to decline again in central and southwestern areas, especially west central Texas. United States % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hour Midwest Midwest Midwest Plains Delta Delta Delta N. Plains W. Wheat Corn Soybeans W. Wheat Wheat Corn Soybeans S. Wheat > 6 mm (0.25") 24% 16% 15% 2% 26% 27% 23% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 4% 4% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% Soybean Areas W. United States % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast Midwest Midwest Midwest Plains Delta Delta Delta N. Plains W. Wheat Corn Soybeans W. Wheat Wheat Corn Soybeans S. Wheat > 6 mm (0.25") 90% 94% 95% 40% 13% 17% 10% 76% > 25 mm (1.0") 15% 44% 47% 7% 0% 0% 0% 39%

4 Past 24 Hour Precipitation Totals (inches) Previous Forecast 24 Hour Precipitation MDA Precipitation Forecast Friday, April 22, 2016 Saturday, April 23, 2016 Sunday, April 24, 2016 Monday, April 25, 2016 Tuesday, April 26, Day Total

5 Maximum Temperature Past 24 Hours Previous Forecast 24 Hour Maximum Temperature MDA Maximum Temperature Forecast Friday, April 22, 2016 Saturday, April 23, 2016 Sunday, April 24, 2016 Monday, April 25, 2016 Tuesday, April 26, Day Average Temperature Departure

6 Argentina The Argentina corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. Argentina % Precipitation Coverage Argentina % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Wheat Corn Soybeans 5 Day Forecast W. Wheat Corn Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 0% 0% 0% > 6 mm (0.25") 69% 76% 79% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 6% 6% 11% Argentina Crop Areas PAST 24 HOURS: Dry weather prevailed yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: A few light showers should favor northeastern Santa Fe, northern Entre Rios, La Pampa, central Cordoba, and southern Buenos Aires through Tuesday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Showers in northern Entre Rios and northern Santa Fe over the next few days will maintain wetness and slow harvesting. However, drier weather next week will allow harvesting to improve. RISKS: There is a drier risk in Cordoba through Tuesday. Soybean Areas Brazil The Brazil corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. Brazil % Precipitation Coverage Brazil % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Wheat Corn Soybeans 5 Day Forecast W. Wheat Corn Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 18% 4% 5% > 6 mm (0.25") 94% 60% 64% > 25 mm (1.0") 4% 1% 1% > 25 mm (1.0") 72% 38% 31% Brazil Crop Areas PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should build across Parana, southwestern Mato Grosso do Sul, western Mato Grosso, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul through Tuesday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is drier in west central areas. CROP IMPACT: Showers in western and south central areas this weekend and early next week will improve moisture a bit for safrinha corn, although more will still likely be needed in most areas to sufficiently replenish moisture. The showers will slow soybean harvesting. Showers in eastern areas later next week will slow soybean harvesting there as well. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in eastern Mato Grosso do Sul through Tuesday. Soybean Areas

7 Europe The Europe wheat/rapeseed belt forecast is unchanged today. Europe % Precipitation Coverage Europe % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Wheat Corn Rapeseed 5 Day Forecast W. Wheat Corn Rapeseed > 6 mm (0.25") 3% 4% 4% > 6 mm (0.25") 67% 82% 85% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 6% 13% 5% Europe Crop Areas PAST 24 HOURS: A few showers favored southern France and western Spain yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains should favor northern Spain, eastern France, Italy, western Germany, Former Yugoslavia, Romania, and Bulgaria through Tuesday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in central Italy and Former Yugoslavia. CROP IMPACT: An upturn in rains across western Germany, Italy, and Former Yugoslavia will improve moisture a bit and will improve conditions for wheat and rapeseed growth and corn germination However, dryness will likely continue across Hungary and Slovak Republic. Temperatures will cool across central and northern areas through next week, which will slow crop growth a bit. RISKS: There is a drier risk in Italy through Tuesday. Former Soviet Union FSU % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Wheat S. Wheat Corn Sunflower > 6 mm (0.25") 14% 15% 6% 12% > 25 mm (1.0") 3% 0% 4% 4% Former Soviet Union Crop Areas FSU % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast W. Wheat S. Wheat Corn Sunflower > 6 mm (0.25") 78% 53% 83% 81% > 25 mm (1.0") 1% 1% 0% 2% The FSU wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored eastern Central Region and western Volga Valley yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor central and western Ukraine, Belarus, Central Region, and Volga Valley through Tuesday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is drier in west central Ukraine. CROP IMPACT: Showers in western Ukraine should improve moisture a bit, and rains in Belarus, Central Region, and Volga Valley will help to maintain sufficient moisture there. However, moisture will decline a bit in North Caucasus. Temperatures have turned quite cool in western areas, although no major crop damage is occurring. RISKS: There is a drier risk in central Ukraine through Tuesday.

8 China China % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Wheat Corn Rapeseed Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 0% 1% 7% 2% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% 0% China Crop Areas Soybean Areas China % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast W. Wheat Corn Rapeseed Soybeans > 6 mm (0.25") 33% 30% 71% 36% > 25 mm (1.0") 3% 3% 31% 8% The China corn/soybean belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: A few showers favored southeastern Yangtze valley yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains should favor southern and western Yangtze Valley, and west central and northern portions of Northeast China through Tuesday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is drier in Northeast China. CROP IMPACT: Additional heavy rains in southeastern Yangtze Valley will further increase wetness concerns, mainly for rapeseed. Meanwhile, dryness will continue to rebuild across North China Plain, which will stress winter wheat and will also slow corn and soybean planting. Rains in western and northern Northeast China will improve moisture a bit ahead of planting, but more rains will still likely be needed in western areas to sufficiently replenish moisture. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in southern North China Plain through Tuesday. Southeast Asia SE Asia % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours Palm > 6 mm (0.25") 29% > 25 mm (1.0") 9% Southeast Asia Crop Areas Palm Areas SE Asia % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast Palm > 6 mm (0.25") 96% > 25 mm (1.0") 62% The Southeast Asia palm oil belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Rains favored southeastern Sumatra, central and western Kalimantan, and southwestern East Malaysia yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Rains should favor central and southern Sumatra, southwestern Malay Peninsula, Kalimantan, and central and southwestern East Malaysia through Tuesday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: An upturn in showers in southern and western Malay Peninsula should improve moisture a bit, but dryness will continue in northeastern Malay Peninsula as well as northern Sumatra and northeastern East Malaysia. Moisture should remain adequate across central and southern Sumatra, Kalimantan, and southwestern East Malaysia. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in northern Malay Peninsula through Tuesday.

9 Australia The Australia wheat belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Showers favored eastern Victoria yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should favor southwestern Western Australia through Tuesday. Australia % Precipitation Coverage Australia % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours W. Wheat Barley Sorghum 5 Day Forecast W. Wheat Barley Sorghum > 6 mm (0.25") 1% 1% 0% > 6 mm (0.25") 10% 10% 3% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% 0% 0% Australia Crop Areas 6-10 DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is wetter in Victoria and southern New South Wales. CROP IMPACT: Dryness continues across southern Queensland, central and southern New South Wales, Victoria, and South Australia, and little improvement is expected there through early next week. However, showers in South Australia, southern New South Wales, and Victoria later next week should improve moisture a bit for wheat. RISKS: There is a wetter risk in Queensland, and drier risk in South Australia in the 6-10 day period. South Africa The South Africa corn belt forecast is unchanged today. S Africa % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hours Corn > 6 mm (0.25") 11% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% South Africa Crop Areas S Africa % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast Corn > 6 mm (0.25") 16% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% PAST 24 HOURS: A few showers favored south central Free State yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: A few showers should favor southeastern Free State through Tuesday DAY: The 6-10 day forecast is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Showers across southern Northwest Province and Free State recently improved moisture, although corn growth is finishing up. Drier weather across much of the region through next week will favor maturation. RISKS: There is drier risk in Free State through Tuesday.

10 Canadian Prairies Canada % Precipitation Coverage Past 24 Hour S. Wheat > 6 mm (0.25") 0% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% Canadian Prairies Crop Areas Canada % Precipitation Coverage 5 Day Forecast S. Wheat > 6 mm (0.25") 22% > 25 mm (1.0") 0% The Canadian Prairies wheat/canola belt forecast is unchanged today. PAST 24 HOURS: Dry weather continued yesterday. 5 DAY FORECAST: Showers should return to southwestern Saskatchewan and Alberta Saturday and Sunday, and continue in Alberta Monday and Tuesday DAY: The 6-10 day outlook is unchanged. CROP IMPACT: Drier weather this week is favoring fieldwork and early planting. Showers this weekend and early next week in Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan should begin to replenish moisture a bit. RISKS: There is a drier risk in southeastern Alberta through Tuesday. Wheat and Canola Areas