The Canadian Agriculture Weather Prognosticator

Transcription

1 TO SUBSCRIBE CALL OR WRITE TO The Canadian Agriculture Weather Prognosticator Volume VIII, Issue XIIII November 3, 2016 Canada Crop Weather Issues At A Glance November Starts On A Better Trend Southeast Canada Endures Wetter Biased Period Slowing Fieldwork Prairies Weather Bottoms Out; Improvement Likely In Next Ten Days Drying Critical Issue In Prairies WORLD WEHER ISSUES Argentina Turns Too Wet With Flooding In SW Grain, Oilseed Areas Brazil Poised For Another Great Production Year; Planting In Some States At Record Pace Australia Weather Much Better Than Expected After Rainy August, September and Early October U.S. West-Central Plains Go Dry For Nearly Two Months; Rain In Early November Critically Important U.S. Summer Crop Harvest Going Well China Has Very Wet October; Better Days Lie Ahead India Harvest Weather Good France Still Too Dry It is good to be in a new month. October was not good for much of anything. Fieldwork advanced poorly during the month and the season s first snow occurred in many areas and for some locations in the northern parts of the Prairies the snow lasted too long. Some crops were flattened under the weight of the snow and many fields were already too wet from a significant storm system that occurred early in the month. Fieldwork in the last two weeks of October only advanced about 2% in portions of Alberta and Saskatchewan because of the poor environment and many producers are worrying about crops being left in the fields all winter. Others have reflected back on the dismal October of 2009 when fieldwork was also limited due to weather adversity. The hope that 2009 has provided is that November of that year turned out to be perfect for crop activities, including the harvest and fieldwork finally concluded after much delay in October was an El Nino year and that typically generates a warmer and drier than usual bias dur- ing late autumn and winter. However, 2016 is not a similar year. Our jet stream is very active and the Northern Hemisphere had a great amount of trouble cooling down earlier this year. That delayed cooling actually contributed to our problems with significant rain events. Normally, the cooler air would drive the jet stream further to the south and create more significant storminess in the U.S. while leaving the Prairies in a better position to begin drying down especially in a year that had already been plagued by frequent rain. The poor job of atmospheric cooling following El Nino last year was directly to blame for the frequent storms in Canada and the excess moisture situation that resulted. To a certain degree the region is still waiting on a potent surge of cold air to arrive. That would also help to assure that wet weather does not return. This is a La Nina-like year and they do not usually promote warm dry finishes to the autumn season. They usually bring coolness in sharp waves and a boost in precipitation tends to occur in the western and southern parts of the Prairies. This is a trend that World Weather, Inc. is looking for later this month and into December. The unusually warm weather that has recently returned to the Prairies will stay with us through much of next week, but fear is growing that when we transition back into a cooler temperature regime there may be at least one significant precipitation event and it may include some snowfall. It is too soon to pinpoint when this transition back to cooler biased weather is going to take place, but we are focusing more and more on midmonth. That should give most of us about ten days continued better weather, but it may not be enough. Shortened hours of daylight and cooler average temperatures at this time of year will limit how quickly we can dry down in the next few weeks. Certainly the best advice is that if you can get into your fields without damage the next week to ten days may be the best opportunity before snow falls and it gets colder again.

2 V O L U ME V I I I, I S S UE X I I I I T HE C A NAD I A N AG R IC U LTU RE WE HER PR OG NOS T IC OR PAGE 2 Enough Drying May Occur To Support Late Harvest North America is experiencing very warm temperatures relative to normal and the trend will likely continue for the next ten days. Some cooling is expected in the second half of this month that will bring temperatures down closer to normal, but may not allow very many areas to be cooler biased for any great lengths of time. Shots of colder air will be coming from northwest to southeast across the Prairies later this month and in December, but the air is not going to be cold enough for a long enough period of time to counter the very warm first half of this month. As a result, the month of November will end warmer than usual, but mostly because of the chronic warmth that will dominate the first half of this month. Precipitation in the November is expected to be near to below average in nearly all of the Prairies. November precipitation is not usually very much and it will not be hard to bring precipitation closer to normal, but mostly in the second half of the month. The shots of colder air that begin in late November will continue in December and become more significant in January and February. As these shots of cold air continue they should bringing increasingly greater amounts of colder air into the eastern Prairies and possibly more significantly into Ontario and Quebec. Western parts of the Prairies are liable to be near normal or slightly warmer than usual in the heart of winter. The trend will be important for accelerating net drying conditions across the Prairies, although as the colder air becomes more potent evaporation rates will decline and a thin layer of snow will remain all winter to protect winter crops from short term bouts of very cold air. La Nina-like conditions prevailing in many areas around the world today will likely become briefly more significant during mid-winter and that should be long enough to induce some greater than usual precipitation across southern Alberta and a part of southern Saskatchewan. The wetter bias is not expected to be very great because of the weak significance of La Nina. Near to below average precipitation is expected in other areas of the prairies with the Peace River Country high on the list of below average precipitation along with Manitoba and northeastern Saskatchewan. Late winter and early spring 2017 will be stormy in the United States, but the Prairies will likely be cool and drier biased which may help protect against moisture surpluses.

3 VOLUME VIII, ISSUE XIIII THE CANADIAN AGRICULTURE WEHER PROGNOSTICOR PAGE 3 November Brazil Weather Should Be Favorable Brazil weather in October was not perfect, but when is it ever. Many areas in the nation did experience a good distribution of rainfall for this time of year. Rainfall was greater than usual in portions of center west and far southern Brazil. The A bit too much rain fell during the month in Rio Grande do Sul where wheat quality nose-dived to feed grain quality after looking very good for much for much of the spring. Heavy rain that developed in the most recent week in southeastern Paraguay, western Parana and southernmost Mato Grosso do Sul left some corn and soybean fields too wet, as well. In contrast, portions of the northeast were left notably drier biased and the multi-year drought continues to prevail across portions of Bahia, northeastern Minas Gerais, Espirito Santo and a few Tocantins locations. However, monsoonal rains often do not begin in these areas until November making the drier biased tendency in October of little concern. Brazil s prevailing weather pattern for the balance of spring and summer will promote rain in most grain, oilseed, cotton, sugarcane, citrus and rice production areas. Sufficient rain is expected later this season and in the heart of summer to ease long term dryness in many of these northeastern crop areas. In the meantime, another month of well distributed rainfall is expected for center west, center south and far southern Brazil. Rainfall as a percentage of normal was notably below average in Espirito Santo, Eastern Minas Gerais and eastern Goias where less than half of normal rain occurred. However, normal rainfall is not very much at this time of year and the data can be a little miss-leading. However, dryness has been a persistent feature in this region over multiple years and that has raised concern about any additional drying that occurs in the next few weeks. World Weather, Inc. is confident, however, that rain will fall more significantly in this region a little later this year and into the summer. Sunday s soil assessment has the ground saturated in most of the region central Mato Grosso to southwestern Sao Paulo, western Parana, central and southern Paraguay and areas southward into Rio Grande do Sul. Flooding from torrential rain in Rio Grande do Sul earlier this month still be lingering. The pocket of heavy rain in northern Minas Gerais during the weekend bolstered topsoil moisture briefly, but follow up rain will be needed to assure the improving moisture trend is sustainable. Many other areas in northeastern Brazil, including parts of Goias, Bahia, Espirito Santo, eastern and far western Minas Gerais and parts of Tocantins still have short to very short soil moisture and will require additional rain soon. The coming week will generate abundant rain in center south Brazil from southern Goias to southeastern Paraguay, Parana and Sao Paulo. Multiple inches of rain are expected. Once that precipitation event eases there will be a short term trend change that will bring greater rain to northeastern Brazil while the interior south trends drier. This year s spring and summer weather will support good production throughout the nation.

4 VOLUME VIII, 1, ISSUE XIIII 8 THE CANADIAN AGRICULTURE WEHER PROGNOSTICOR PAGE 4 Drying In Argentina s First Half Of November Argentina weather in October trended much wetter eliminating most of the dryness that plagued the nation during late winter and early spring. The past week of weather brought excessive rain and flooding to a part of the southwest and that has producers and traders concerned about production. Weather changes are coming with the first half of November expected to trend much drier. That may lend enough time to the flooded areas to possibly dry down for some late planting. Some of the wet weather of late has not only delayed spring planting, but it has lower the quality of some winter crops, as well. The ground is saturated in La Pampa and neighboring areas in northwestern Buenos Aires and southern sections of Santa Fe, Cordoba, and San Luis. The topsoil is also excessively wet in Corrientes, Chaco, portions of Formosa, northern Santa Fe and northern Entre Rios. Soil moisture is short in much of Santiago del Estero and portions of northern Cordoba while soil moisture in the remaining production areas is generally adequate. Flooding has limited fieldwork in several areas of northwestern Buenos Aires, La Pampa, and immediate neighboring areas during the past week. The abundant moisture also lowered winter wheat quality in several locations with some permanent crop damage suspected. Winter wheat in other sections of Argentina was not as significantly impacted by the above average rainfall. Dry and warm weather is needed in coming weeks to promote the best environment for reproduction, filling and maturation. Too much moisture is breeding wet weather disease and could bring on a general quality decline if dry weather does not evolve immediately. In the meantime, rice planting in Argentina was 48% complete as of October 27, down from 81% at this point last year. Sunseed planting was 49% complete and corn planting was 27% complete. The recent wet weather slowed rice, corn and sunseed planting in several production areas. Soybean planting normally begins in November. The November outlook brings near to below average precipitation to Argentina and near to above average temperatures. The first half of the month is likely to be driest with below average precipitation and net drying likely in many areas. The warmer bias that evolves this coming weekend will prevail through the second weekend of the month and will help to accelerate drying rates in some of the wettest locations. The accelerated dry and warm weather is reason enough to keep a close eye on the nation s crops and soil moisture over the next few weeks, especially fears of La Nina influenced dryness still running through the minds of many commodity futures traders. Drier weather is badly needed and will evolve for a while this month, but the nation is not expected to dry out in a dramatic manner. Sufficient drying time will occur to restore more favorable crop development potential. Timely rainfall should evolve later this month that will prevent any area from drying down too much and just enough improvement is expected early this month to stop the wheat quality decline and begin supporting better yields. The changing weather will be good summer crops, but may be too late for winter crops.

5 V O L U ME V I I I, I S S UE X I I I T HE C A NAD I A N AG R IC U LTU RE WE HER PR OG NOS T IC OR PAGE 5 Selected Weather Images From Around The World Drought continues in France where rainfall has been much less than half of normal since July. The region may get some showers in the next two weeks, but soil moisture and precipitation will continue below average. China experienced a wet October slowing the harvest of many crops and delaying some winter wheat and rapeseed planting. China s weather has changed with much less frequent and less significant rain expected which should help get the rest of its winter rapeseed into the ground soon. China s wheat crop should perform well in 2017 because of the abundance of moisture during the planting and emergence season. Australia s winter grain and canola harvest season has been improving due to drier weather. Too much rain fell in October causing a notable delay in crop maturation and harvest progress, but conditions have been and will continue improving to help protect grain and oilseed quality while accelerating harvest progress. Snow fell in much of Russia recently and cold temperatures are pushing crops into dormancy.

6 OLU ISSUE 8 IIII V OVL U ME ME V 1 I1I,, ISS UE X T HE T HEC C AA NAD NAD I AI A NNAG AG R IC R IC UU LTU LTU RERE WE WE HER HERPRPR OG OG NOS NOS T IC T IC OR OR PAGE 6 Restricted Relief Coming For U.S. West-Central Plains Limited rainfall has occurred in portions of the U.S. hard red winter wheat production region since early September. The persistent dry conditions has left soil moisture in deplorable condition. Winter crops are not as bad off you might imagine, but significant rain is needed before crops turn dormant to reduce the risk of winterkill because of poor establishment. Rainfall in the past 30 days has been almost non-existent for wheat production areas in eastern Colorado, western and north-central Kansas and a part of central and far southern Nebraska. Most of the precipitation that has occurred was lost to evaporation after the region experienced frequent weeks of below average precipitation in the past couple of months. Temperatures were averaging 6-7 degrees Fahrenheit above average during the month of October. Some of the extreme highs as recent as the last week of October reached into the lower 90s Fahrenheit (32-34C) in the drier areas of southwestern Kansas. Extreme temperatures during midoctober breached 100 Fahrenheit (38C) for the first time in the month of October since records began in the late 1800s. Needless to day, the heat exacerbated the dryness and added stress to crops throughout the dry region. What little rain fell in the past month was easily lost to evaporation. Surprisingly, wheat conditions are not as deplorable as one might imagine under these circumstances because of abundant rain that fell in late summer. The moisture left in the soil in September was ideal for supporting quick seed germination and good establishment. Weather in October did become more stressful for the unirrigated crops and the pressure is now on for improving weather before dormancy sets in. A slow-moving storm system over the southern U.S. Plains this weekend and early next week will produce rain in many areas. However, notice on the maps below that rainfall in the driest area of Colorado, northwestern Kansas and parts of Nebraska will not get much relief. If the forecast verifies, some improvement will come to southwestern Kansas and the Texas Panhandle, but areas northward in Colorado and northwestern Kansas, as well as Nebraska will not likely get any meaningful relief. La Nina like years often keep this region running drier biased until spring and this may be no exceptional year. If the trend continues, wheat in the Central Plains will not be as well established as it should be and that will raise the potential for winterkill if harsh winter weather impacts the region without better crop establishment and good snow cover. Once this week s storm passes the region may be dry again for a while making this storm a critical one in determining crop conditions as dormancy begins to set in later this month and next.