SUNDAY WEATHER SUMMARY

Transcription

1 SUNDAY WEATHER SUMMARY Weather Headlines Unseasonably mild weather will prevail in most of the central and eastern U.S. for the first part of this week. After a brief intrusion of seasonably cold weather later this week, much above and well above normal temperatures are likely to rebuild in the eastern half of the nation during the 6-10 day period Day Forecast Change Day Forecast Change 2-5 Day Forecast (Mon 1/22 to Thu 1/25) Summary PWA: 4.8 Prev*: 4.4 Prev: 6.6 Chng: 0.4 LY: 8.2 5YR: -1.1 YoY: -3.4 Yo5Y: 5.9 *Same Calendar Days Previous Fcst Anomaly Last Year 5 Yr Avg Anomaly Today's Temp Anomalies Today's Precip Forecast Forecast Discussion 6-10 Day Forecast (Fri 1/26 to Tue 1/30) Summary PWA: 3.7 Prev*: 3.7 Prev: 4.1 Chng: 0.0 LY: 2.1 5YR: 0.7 YoY: 1.6 Yo5Y: 3.0 *Same Calendar Days A strong winter storm is taking shape in the Plains this afternoon and it will advance on into the Great Lakes and Northeast during the first part of the work week. Temperatures out ahead of the developing storm are running much above to well above normal for most of the central and eastern U.S., so most of the precipitation from the storm will be in the form of rain. Where it is cold enough for snow, from the central and northern Plains into the Upper Midwest, some heavy snow totals are possible through Tuesday, accompanied by strong and gusty winds that will lead to blizzard conditions in places. Temperatures in the wake of the Previous Fcst Anomaly Last Year 5 Yr Avg Anomaly winter storm will fall off, but only to near or slightly below normal in the Midwest and South, and below to much below normal briefly in the Northeast. Later on this week, another round of unseasonably mild air is forecast to build out from the West into the central and eastern U.S. Much above to well above normal temperatures are forecast from the Plains into the Midwest Day Forecast (Wed 1/31 to Sun 2/4) This next batch of above normal temperatures ifs forecast to continue Summary in the central and eastern U.S. for a few more days in the 6-10 day period. PWA: 2.4 The unseasonably mild weather is forecast to peak during the upcoming Prev*: 3.2 weekend when temperatures for most areas east of the Rockies reach Prev: 2.6 well above to far above normal. A return to more seasonably cold Chng: -0.8 weather is likely for the latter half of the 6-10 day period, with most of the central and eastern U.S. dropping back to near or a little below normal. LY: 2.5 There are some hints in the models that the latter half of the 6-10 could 5YR: 1.0 end up colder for the eastern half of the nation. This morning's run of the YoY: -0.1 ECMWF model is one of the colder solutions and brings much below to 1.4 well below normal temperatures through the eastern half of the nation. For now, our forecast paints modest cold anomalies in the central and Previous Fcst Anomaly Last Year 5 Yr Avg Anomaly eastern U.S. for early next week but this time carries some risk that the forecast could end up colder. For the day period, most of this weekend's model guidance indicates that temperatures for most of the central and eastern U.S. will average above normal. A couple of days with much above normal temperatures are possible as well. Below normal temperatures are forecast for the West into the north-central U.S. for much of the period, with few days of much below to well below normal temperatures possible in the north-central U.S. Yo5Y: *Same Calendar Days

2 Detailed 1-5 Day Outlook Day -1: Sat 1/20 Yesterday's Temp Anoms Yesterday's Precipitation Day 1: Sun 1/21 Day 2: Mon 1/22 Day 4: Wed 1/24 Day 5: Thu 1/25 Day 3: Tue 1/23

3 Detailed 6-10 Day Outlook 6-10 Day Trends Day 10: Tue 1/30 Day 9: Mon 1/29 Day 8: Sun 1/28 Day 7: Sat 1/27 Day 6: Fri 1/26 Today's 6-10 Day Tomorrow's 6-10 Day Tue's 6-10 Day Wed's 6-10 Day

4 Detailed Day Outlook Day 11: Wed 1/31 Day 12: Thu 2/ Day Trends Day 15: Sun 2/4 Day 14: Sat 2/3 Day 13: Fri 2/2 Today's Day Tomorrow's Day Tue's Day Wed's Day

5 2-5 Day Period 6-10 Day Period Day Period Forecast Model Comparison Forecast Model Comparison Overnight 00Z Model Runs ECMWF Ens ECMWF Canad. Ens GFS Ens Updated Model Graphs Yet Midday 12Z Model Runs GFS GFS Ens ECMWF Morning 6Z Runs GFS Ens GFS GFS

6 Recent Weather and Climate Recent Weather and Climate Conditions Temperature Anomalies for the Last 7 Days Precipitation Totals for the Last 7 Days Current Palmer Drought Index Precip Needed to End Drought Current SST Anomalies ( C) Arctic Oscillation Index North Atlantic Oscillation Index U.S. Daily Population Weighted Temperatures and Anomalies for the Last Year /1/17 3/1/17 4/1/17 5/1/17 6/1/17 7/1/17 8/1/17 9/1/17 10/1/17 11/1/17 12/1/17 1/1/ /22/2018 Frost/Freeze Outlook Freeze/Snowfall Forecast 1/23/2018 Frost/Freeze Outlook 1/24/2018 Frost/Freeze Outlook Latest GFS 7 Day Snow Forecast NA NA NA Contours are: Frost, Freeze, Hard Freeze, Killing Freeze

7 Precipitation Summary Past 90 and 30 Day U.S. Precipitation Trends Past 90 Day Precip Anomalies Past 90 Day Year on Year Change Past 30 Day Precip Anomalies Past 30 Day Year on Year Change Above precip maps do not include observed precipitation during the day yesterday. U.S. Forecast Precipitation Summary 2-5 Day Precip Totals 2-5 Day Precip Anomalies 6-10 Day Precip Totals 6-10 Day Precip Anomalies Major corn areas outlined. Yest Sat 1/20/2018 Major soybean areas outlined. Major wheat areas outlined. Sun 1/21/2018 Mon 1/22/2018 Tue 1/23/2018 Major cotton areas outlined. Wed 1/24/2018 Thu 1/25/2018 Fri 1/26/2018 Sat 1/27/2018 Sun 1/28/2018 Mon 1/29/2018 Next 7 Day Temperature & Precipitation Forecast Data Region Avg Hi/Lo* Hi/Lo Anom Highest** Lowest** Fcst Precip Norm Precip Precip Anom Western Corn Belt Eastern Corn Belt 42 F/23 F 46 F/31 F +9/+9F +12/+12F 63 F 62 F 10 F 14 F 0.36" 0.68" 0.23" 0.46" +0.13" +0.22" Western Soybeans 39 F/22 F +8/+10F 63 F 3 F 0.33" 0.23" +0.1" Eastern Soybeans 47 F/32 F +11/+12F 66 F 18 F 0.73" 0.52" +0.21" Northern Wheat Belt 39 F/16 F 0/+1F 61 F 1 F 0.22" 0.1" +0.12" Southern Wheat Belt 55 F/28 F +6/+4F 65 F 18 F 0.03" 0.2" -0.17" Western SE Cotton 63 F/41 F +7/+5F 73 F 32 F 0.82" 1.16" -0.34" Eastern SE Cotton 63 F/38 F +6/+2F 73 F 29 F 0.1" 0.95" -0.85" Florida Citrus 76 F/56 F +3/+7F 79 F 53 F 0.43" 0.56" -0.13" *Avg Hi/Lo are the average forecast high and low temperatures for the next 7 days averaged over all cities in a region. **Highest and lowest forecast temperature is the absolute highest and lowest forecast temperature out of all cities in a given ag region

8 International Outlook Europe Weather Summary 2-5 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies 6-10 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Past 30 and 90 Day Precipitation Trends 30 Day Precip Anomalies 30 Day Year on Year Change Forecast Precipitation Trends 2-5 Day Forecast Totals 2-5 Day Forecast Anomaly 90 Day Precip Anomalies 90 Day Year on Year Change 6-10 Day Forecast Totals 6-10 Day Forecast Anomaly South America Weather Summary 2-5 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies 6-10 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Past 30 and 90 Day Precipitation Trends Forecast Precipitation Trends 30 Day Precip Anomalies 30 Day Year on Year Change 2-5 Day Forecast Totals 2-5 Day Forecast Anomaly 90 Day Precip Anomalies 90 Day Year on Year Change 6-10 Day Forecast Totals 6-10 Day Forecast Anomaly Major corn areas outlined. Major soybean areas outlined. Major wheat & coffee areas. Major cotton areas.

9 Eastern Asia Weather Summary International Outlook 2-5 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies 6-10 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Past 30 and 90 Day Precipitation Trends 30 Day Precip Anomalies 30 Day Year on Year Change Forecast Precipitation Trends 2-5 Day Forecast Totals 2-5 Day Forecast Anomaly 90 Day Precip Anomalies 90 Day Year on Year Change 6-10 Day Forecast Totals 6-10 Day Forecast Anomaly Major corn areas outlined Major soybean areas outlined Major rice areas outlined Major wheat areas outlined Australia Weather Summary 2-5 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies 6-10 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Past 30 and 90 Day Precipitation Trends 30 Day Precip Anomalies 30 Day Year on Year Change Forecast Precipitation Trends 2-5 Day Forecast Totals 2-5 Day Forecast Anomaly 90 Day Precip Anomalies 90 Day Year on Year Change 6-10 Day Forecast Totals 6-10 Day Forecast Anomaly Major cotton areas outlined Major wheat areas outlined

10 Regional Average Temperatures New England Southwest South-Central C-N Plains Midwest C-S Florida Southeast Mid-Atlantic Northwest C-N Rockies Regional Daily Temperature and Precipitation Averages Consult Individual City Forecast Product for City Specific Temperature Forecasts Last 5 Days Next 10 Days Date 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/30 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Date 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/30 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Date 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/30 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Date 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/30 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Date 1/16 1/17 1/18 1/19 1/20 1/21 1/22 1/23 1/24 1/25 1/26 1/27 1/28 1/29 1/30 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp

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