Crop / Weather Update

Transcription

1 Crop / Weather Update

2 Corn Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent The U.S. corn crop was rated 69% good-to-excellent on September 23, up 1% from week-ago, according to today s (9/24) weekly USDA Crop Progress report. That compares well to last year at 61% and to the historical norm at 60% good-excellent. Corn industry analysts expected an unchanged reading, so this result may weigh somewhat upon corn futures overnight. Given the corn crop rating s historical tendency to edge upward, we can probably expect slowly improving readings from the balance of this year s surveys. The most surprising aspect of this week s report was the minimal number of declining state readings. After reportedly improving substantially the week prior, the Colorado crop suffered a 9% drop to 70% goodexcellent, with the only other state suffering a decline was Wisconsin with a 1% dip to 73% good-excellent. Michigan led the 9 states reporting improvements with a 6% surge to 57% good-excellent. The Corn Belt was bracketed by strong readings, with Nebraska s crop again rated at 82% good-excellent and Ohio (+1) and Pennsylvania (unchanged) coming in at 80% goodexcellent. Illinois continued leading the I states with a 79% (+3%) result, with Indiana (+2) and Iowa (unchanged) posting 73% good-excellent readings.

3 Corn Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 According to this latest USDA report, the corn harvest was 16% complete as of September 23. That s well ahead of last year s pace at 10%, and slightly ahead of the 10-year average at 14%. It matched industry expectations. Despite the widespread flooding in that state, North Carolina farmers completed another 10% of their harvest, pushing the state result to 76% complete. In contrast, after matching North Carolina s completion total the previous week, Texas farmers could only harvest 1% of their fields last week. As one would expect, the states that have completed 50% or more of their harvests are in the south, with the Tennessee crop 60% done and Kentucky harvest exactly halfway home. Illinois is leading the main Corn Belt states with 28% harvested, while Indiana farmers have combined 18%. Harvests in the other major states (Nebraska (9%), Iowa (5%) and Ohio (6%)) are less than 10% complete.

4 Cotton Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent The U.S. (15 state) cotton crop was seen as being unchanged from the week prior at 39% good-to-excellent. That remained relatively low, as indicated by the year-ago and 10-year average figures at 60% and 48% good-excellent, respectively. That flat reading defied the seasonal tendency for slight declines through the balance of the growing season. These latest numbers once again illustrated the importance of the huge Texas crop. The Texas reading edged up 1%, as did those for 6 other states, with Missouri (+7% to 63% good excellent), Louisiana (+7%/71%), Kansas (+6%/78%) and Arizona (+5%/47%) posting impressive gains. Those clearly offset the 22% dive in the North Carolina reading from 48% to 26% good-excellent, as well as the 10% loss to 19% for the Oklahoma crop, the 9% drop to 77% for the Virginia crop and the 4% dip to 50% good-excellent for the South Carolina crop. This seems likely to weigh on cotton futures somewhat in overnight trading.

5 Cotton Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% As one would generally expect, the flooding in the Carolinas and Virginia, as well as the rains that covered portions of the southern Plains and Delta region, seemingly slowed the cotton harvest. That is, after having surged to 13% complete the week prior, the cotton harvest was seen as being only 16% complete as of September 23. However, indicated differences from last year (+2%) and the 10-year mean (+6%) exactly matched the differences seen on September 16. As is often the case, the Louisiana harvest is speeding ahead of its various counterparts, surging 22% to 36% complete as of Sunday. Those for Arizona (19% complete), Arkansas (18%) and Mississippi (19%) are also well along, although they re slightly behind the Texas completion figure at 23%. On the other hand, the latter only rose 1% last week.

6 Rice Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 This week, the rice crop harvest is 65% complete, up 16 points from last week. This is 9 points below last year s harvest, which moved along exceptionally well at a faster pace than average. This week, harvest is 7 points above the 10-year average. When looking at each of the six major rice-growing states individually, all rice harvest progress is above average for this time of year. Mississippi s harvest is 83% complete already this fall, up 13 points from last week, and over 20 points above average. Other states report great progress: Arkansas, 70% complete, up 23 points from last week; California 15% complete, up 9 points; Louisiana 96% complete, up 3 points; Missouri 45% complete, up 24 points and Texas, 97% complete, up 3 points.

7 Soybean Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent /3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 This week s soybean crop condition rating is 68% good/excellent, up one point from last week. This year s soybean crop is still soaring above past crops: 8 points above last year s good/excellent ratings and 9 points above the 10-year average. Eleven states improved their condition ratings this week. The largest increases were in Tennessee, 74% good/excellent, up 5%; Minnesota, 73%, up 4%; Michigan 69%, up 4% and Kansas, 60%, up 4% also. Kentucky (81% good/excellent), Illinois (79%) and Indiana (71%) all have healthy crops with ratings that continue to increase slightly. The states with the two worst soybean condition ratings are North Carolina and Missouri, mostly extreme weather to blame in each state. Missouri had above average temperatures last week, and the good/excellent condition rating went down 2 points to 44%. North Carolina had the biggest drop at 7%, with the rating now 42% and below Missouri s, which usually held the lowest spot this growing season. Since Hurricane Florence hit land there earlier this month, this condition report is not surprising. However, since North Carolina farmers do not grow that large of a soybean crop, it does not affect the condition rating much. Nebraska s rating is still the highest at 83%, although it did decrease one point from last week.

8 Soybean Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29 11/5 11/12 11/19 This week, soybean harvest is 14% complete, up 8 points from last week. This is 4 points above both year-ago and the 10-year average. Kansas and Michigan both began harvesting this week and are 2% and 4% complete, respectively. The states making the most progress, above average from where they usually are at the end of September, are Louisiana (66% complete), Mississippi (47%) and North Dakota (21%). States making good progress and above average are Illinois with 17% complete, up 13 points from last week; Indiana 13% complete, up 11 points; Kentucky and Minnesota both 15%, up 7 and 8 points, respectively; Nebraska 13% complete, up 10 points and Tennessee 16%, up 8 points. One state is lagging behind its normal progress, and that is Arkansas. Harvest is only 18% complete this week. Last year at this time, harvest was 33% complete in Arkansas and the 5-year average is 27%. Although Arkansas producers harvested 9% of the crop each week, it s not enough to be on target. However, at this point, it s not affecting the overall progress for the 18 major soybean-growing states.

9 Winter Wheat Planting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 This week, winter wheat planted is 28% complete across the 18 major winter-wheat-growing states. This is 6 points above year-ago and 1 point above the 10-year average. Arkansas farmers began planting this week and are only 1% complete. Other states reporting just beginning are: Illinois at 2% complete, Missouri 4%, Montana 8% and Ohio 3%. North Carolina producers have not started winter wheat planting yet, but this is pretty typical since last year at the end of September, it was reported that 2% was complete. Washington state has the most progress at 65% complete, up 18 points from last week. States around the 50% completion mark are: Colorado (47%), Nebraska (53% ) and South Dakota (53%). This year at 13% complete, California farmers are 10 points above the 5-year mean, whereas Michigan plantings are behind 4 points at 7% complete this year. But the biggest story is in Montana, as stated above at only 8%, when usually winter wheat planting is almost half complete by now. Even last year was slow, but farmers were 22% complete toward the end of September.

10 Weather The map summarizes rainfall over the past week to Monday. Rains from North Carolina northward to New England were associated with the remnants of Hurricane Florence. That storm s aftermath found rising rivers, flooding, and consequently more crop damage. Heavy rains drenched the upper Midwest. Portions of Iowa and Minnesota saw extremes of multi inches and localized flooding. Despite that heavy rain, there was very limited impact, if at all, in the reported condition ratings. The Minnesota corn rating actually gained a point and Iowa was unchanged. The generally dry weather across the southern and eastern Midwest was highly favorable for harvesting there. For example, Illinois advanced its corn harvesting from 12% to 28%, whereas Iowa saw limited progress of 3 points to 5% complete, no doubt hampered by the rains.

11 Weather The map displays Monday s seven-day rainfall forecast to next Monday. The areas of the heaviest rainfall are expected to shift eastward from the rains west last week, although still catching a portion of the Iowa- Minnesota-Wisconsin area that saw this past week s rains. The forecast also projects heavy rains from the lower Mississippi River Valley northeastward to the eastern Corn Belt and southern Canada. To the west, rains will fall in the Plains, but with moderate totals. This forecast is favorable for Plains harvesting and for advancing the winter wheat seedings.

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