UNITED STATES AND SOUTH AMERICA OUTLOOK (FULL REPORT) Tuesday, December 19, 2017

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1 T-storm Weather Summary A series of cool fronts move across South America over the next 10 to 14 days, breaking drying across much of Argentina, southern Brazil, and Paraguay. That said, in Argentina, southern soybean and sunflower areas likely miss significant totals, and subsoil dryness lingers given the lack of rain leading into this week. Northern areas of Brazil will be considerably drier than recently over the next week, but t-storms follow. Otherwise, U.S. cattle and HRW wheat turn cold, and some burnback or winterkill is probable in South Dakota early next week. T-storm Weather Highlights T-storms developed overnight in parts of Argentina, focused on areas that were wet Saturday. Rain Saturday in Argentina aided ~50% of first-crop corn and soy., but barely diminished subsoil dryness. No change: to 2.00 of rain aids much of Argentina (except south) through Saturday. No change: some t-storms return to Argentina next weekend (Dec Jan. 2), but heavy rain is unlikely. No change: above-normal rainfall affects southern Brazil and Paraguay over the next 10 days. No change: despite drying in northern Brazil into next week (esp. Bahia and Minas Gerais), t-storms follow. Model Notes None. Page Description Today's South United Normal America States Crop Discussion Phase Table South United America States Discussion Today's South Normal America Crop Discussion Phase Table Supporting Pages 1

2 SOUTH AMERICA DISCUSSION Weather Outlook In Argentina, t-storms linger in east-central areas today, and will be followed by several areas of t-storms from Wed. night through Fri. night when a couple waves of energy pass; to 2.00 of rain results, except in / near soybean and sunflower areas of southern Buenos Aires where a lack of humidity keeps amounts under 0.50 (6-10). Five to seven days of drying follow as seasonable surface-level high pressure passes, followed by one or two chances for t-storms from next Fri. forward (Dec Jan. 2) when another wave or two trigger t-storms with 0.50 to totals. Normal rainfall over the next two weeks is ~2.00, indicating topsoil moisture is likely to improve in most areas over the next two weeks, but may not be enough to substantially improve subsoil moisture unless totals are considerably higher. Southern Brazil and Paraguay will be the primary beneficiary of the upcoming pattern as numerous cool fronts sweep northward and dissipate over the next 10 days, producing pockets of t-storms from tomorrow forward. Generalized rainfall of 2.25 to 4.50 occurs, compared to normal rainfall of ~2.25 for the period (11, 12). Highest coverage and amounts Sat.-Sun. when the strongest cool front passes. Northern areas of Brazil will be considerably drier than recently as upper-level high pressure only allows widely-scattered t-storms to form over the next week, most notably leaving Bahia and Minas Gerais unseasonably dry (11, 12). However, a stormy period most likely follows from the middle of next week forward as the upper-level high relaxes and allows cool fronts to sweep further north, ultimately producing 1.50 to 3.00 of rain over Dec Jan. 1, but still leaving crops drier than normal for the upcoming two-week period because ~4.50 is normal through then. Recent Weather Overnight, a small t-storm cluster in Argentina likely produced ~ in southern Santa Fe, northeast Buenos Aires, and Entre Rios, focused on the area that was wet Saturday. Elsewhere, a few t-storms dotted western areas of Mato Grosso and Mato Grosso do Sul yesterday. Most areas were cool (22). Crop and Soil Moisture Discussion Heavy rainfall Saturday aided ~50% of first-crop corn and soybeans in Argentina, but considerably more is needed (as of Sunday morning) because 30-day dryness only dropped less than 10 points, leaving 88% and 87% drier than normal over the last 30 days (14, 16-19). Brazil was not as nearly as dry over the last 30 days, but 14-day deficits continue to mount across southern Brazil (and Paraguay) with 65% and 52% having been drier than normal over the period (15). Argentina Brazil Proportion of National Production By Region Corn Corn Sunflower Region (1 st ) (2 nd Soy. ) Wheat Argentina Central 54% 56% 13% 36% North 13% 8% 13% 4% South 31% 36% 74% 59% Click here to review detailed crop production maps for Argentina and Brazil Center-West 13% 66% 49% 2% Northeast 11% 4% 8% 0% South 43% 23% 33% 95% Southeast 30% 5% 6% 4% Data sources: Argentina Ministry of Ag., Livestock and Fish. (2010/ /15), Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics ( ) 2

3 UNITED STATES DISCUSSION Central U.S. Weather Outlook Unseasonable mildness continues through Wed., then breaks Thu.-Fri. in the Plains and northwest Corn Belt, and Fri.-Sat. elsewhere as the first in a series of Arctic cold fronts blast southward. A cold pattern follows and lasts through at least early January as reinforcing shots of Arctic air pass every few days, ultimately leaving most areas 10 F to 20 F colder than normal with maximums in the 10s-20s and minimums in the 0s and 10s in key cattle and HRW wheat areas from Nebraska south (25). Notably, temperatures fall into the -0s and -10s in snow-free areas of the Dakotas, introducing the probability for some burnback and winterkill given a lack of snowpack and pockets of exposure through then (especially in South Dakota where ~6% of U.S. HRW wheat is produced) (26). Except for a swath of 2 to 6 of protective snow for wheat Wed. in Montana and North Dakota (and points east through Minnesota and Wisconsin Thu.), a major winter storm is not on the immediate horizon for cattle and HRW wheat. That said, a number of opportunities for a winter storm exist from early next week forward as the southern edge of Arctic air fluctuates, but the exact setup will take many days to determine and may not be resolved until this weekend. Instead, pockets of light snow fall in varying areas at varying times when fast-moving waves of energy flow within the Arctic air masses, but fail to cause a significant logistics disruption in the Plains and western Corn Belt. Otherwise, note that several periods of heavy rain affect SRW wheat in the Delta and far-southeast Corn Belt when systems spin up along the eastern edge of coldness, resulting in very heavy totals of 2.00 to 5.00 for SRW wheat in / near the Delta over the next 10 days (24). Recent Weather Dry and mild weather prevailed for cattle and HRW wheat in the Plains; temperatures yesterday were an incredible 35 F warmer than last year for HRW wheat, and December has averaged 15 F warmer per day (28-30). Crop and Soil Moisture Overview The central and southern Plains were unusually dry over the last 60 days with little or no precipitation having fallen, leaving 85% of HRW wheat drier than normal (31). Central and Eastern United States Proportion of National Production By Region Region Corn Soy. HRW Wheat SRW Wheat Spring Wheat Corn Belt 63% 61% 2% 47% 13% Delta 5% 11% 0% 25% 0% Plains Central 17% 12% 56% 0% 0% North 8% 10% 18% 0% 73% South 2% 0% 22% 0% 0% East / Southeast 5% 5% 0% 28% 0% Other 0% 0% 0% 13% Data source: USDA ( ) Click here to review our county-level corn, soybean, and wheat production maps over

4 Forecast: 7-Day Precipitation (") Through Tuesday Morning, December 26 Forecast: 7-Day Prcp. (Percent of Average) Through Tuesday Morning, December

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11 Chart not available today 24

12 Chart not available today 25

13 Winter Wheat and Winterkill Weather Production 26

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