MORNING WEATHER SUMMARY

Transcription

1 MORNING WEATHER SUMMARY Weather Headlines Hot weather will prevail across the West into next week while another shot of cooler air moves into the eastern US. The 6-10 day period was trended slightly warmer across the central US today and the is slightly warmer across portions of the central and western US Day Forecast Change Day Forecast Change 2-5 Day Forecast (Fri 7/7 to Mon 7/10) Summary PWA: 0.9 Prev*: 0.8 Prev: 1.0 Chng: 0.1 LY: 0.9 5YR: 1.2 YoY: 0.0 Yo5Y: -0.3 *Same Calendar Days Previous Fcst Anomaly Last Year 5 Yr Avg Anomaly Today's Temp Anomalies Today's Precip Forecast Forecast Discussion Hot weather will continue across much of the western US today as well as across the north-central US. Widespread 100s across interior California will be spreading closer to the coast the next few days with Burbank warming to the middle 90s today and then the 100s tomorrow and Saturday. Downtown Los Angeles should reach the middle 90s tomorrow and Saturday though LAX may only reach the middle 80s. Widespread 100s will continue across the interior West in places like Salt Lake City, while the Southwest exceeds 115 in places. Phoenix is forecast to top out around 116F tomorrow before temperatures ease this weekend and early next week back to the F range as humidity and rain chances increase. Another round of cooler weather is still expected to move into the central US tomorrow and this weekend, bringing a return to near and below normal temperatures. The southern US is not expected to cool much, with below normal temperatures likely to be focused across the Midwest and Northeast Saturday and Sunday. The main upper level ridge center will likely shift eastward some next week, from the Rockies into the Plains region. That in turn will warm most of the central US to above normal levels next week, and should warm the eastern US to at least slightly above normal levels for a time. The West should still remain above to much above normal next week, though showers and thunderstorms may keep portions of the Southwest and Rockies a little cooler than indicated on some days. The upper level ridge is expected to continue meandering between the Rockies and Plains during the 11-15, and so central and western areas of the country will be most likely to average above normal. The eastern US is more uncertain and will likely be more variable. The overnight GFS run brought a strong shot of cooler air into the eastern US during the though other guidance maintains more warmth. Our current forecast sides with the warmer solutions during the period, but confidence east of the Mississippi is not high Day Forecast (Tue 7/11 to Sat 7/15) Previous Fcst Summary PWA: 1.6 Prev*: 1.1 Prev: 1.2 Chng: 0.5 LY: 1.6 5YR: 0.7 YoY: 0.0 Yo5Y: 0.9 *Same Calendar Days 5 Yr Avg Anomaly Day Forecast (Sun 7/16 to Thu 7/20) Previous Fcst Anomaly Last Year Anomaly Last Year Summary PWA: 1.3 Prev*: 0.6 Prev: 0.6 Chng: 0.7 LY: 1.5 5YR: 1.1 YoY: -0.2 Yo5Y: 0.2 *Same Calendar Days 5 Yr Avg Anomaly

2 Detailed 1-5 Day Outlook Day -1: Wed 7/5 Yesterday's Temp Anoms Yesterday's Precipitation Day 3: Sat 7/8 Day 4: Sun 7/9 Day 1: Thu 7/6 Day 2: Fri 7/7 Day 5: Mon 7/10

3 Detailed 6-10 Day Outlook Day 6: Tue 7/11 Day 7: Wed 7/12 Day 9: Fri 7/14 Day 8: Thu 7/13 Day 10: Sat 7/15 Today's 6-10 Day Tomorrow's 6-10 Day Sat's 6-10 Day Sun's 6-10 Day 6-10 Day Trends

4 Detailed Day Outlook Day Trends Day 15: Thu 7/20 Day 14: Wed 7/19 Day 13: Tue 7/18 Day 12: Mon 7/17 Day 11: Sun 7/16 Today's Day Tomorrow's Day Sat's Day Sun's Day

5 2-5 Day Period 6-10 Day Period Day Period Forecast Model Comparison Forecast Model Comparison Updated Model Graphs Yet Midday 12Z Model Runs ECMWF GFS Ens GFS Morning 6Z Runs GFS Ens GFS Overnight 00Z Model Runs ECMWF Ens ECMWF Canad. Ens GFS Ens GFS

6 Recent Weather and Climate Recent Weather and Climate Conditions Temperature Anomalies for the Last 7 Days Precipitation Totals for the Last 7 Days Current Palmer Drought Index Precip Needed to End Drought Current SST Anomalies ( C) Arctic Oscillation Index North Atlantic Oscillation Index U.S. Daily Population Weighted Temperatures and Anomalies for the Last Year /1/16 9/1/16 10/1/16 11/1/16 12/1/16 1/1/17 2/1/17 3/1/17 4/1/17 5/1/17 6/1/17 7/1/ /7/2017 Frost/Freeze Outlook Freeze/Snowfall Forecast 7/8/2017 Frost/Freeze Outlook 7/9/2017 Frost/Freeze Outlook Latest GFS 7 Day Snow Forecast NA NA NA Contours are: Frost, Freeze, Hard Freeze, Killing Freeze

7 Precipitation Summary Past 90 and 30 Day U.S. Precipitation Trends Past 90 Day Precip Anomalies Past 90 Day Year on Year Change Past 30 Day Precip Anomalies Past 30 Day Year on Year Change Above precip maps do not include observed precipitation during the day yesterday. U.S. Forecast Precipitation Summary 2-5 Day Precip Totals 2-5 Day Precip Anomalies 6-10 Day Precip Totals 6-10 Day Precip Anomalies Major corn areas outlined. Yest Wed 7/5/2017 Major soybean areas outlined. Major wheat areas outlined. Thu 7/6/2017 Fri 7/7/2017 Sat 7/8/2017 Major cotton areas outlined. Sun 7/9/2017 Mon 7/10/2017 Tue 7/11/2017 Wed 7/12/2017 Thu 7/13/2017 Fri 7/14/2017 Next 7 Day Temperature & Precipitation Forecast Data Region Avg Hi/Lo* Hi/Lo Anom Highest** Lowest** Fcst Precip Norm Precip Precip Anom Western Corn Belt 89 F/66 F +2/+1F 100 F 58 F 0.34" 0.87" -0.53" Eastern Corn Belt 85 F/65 F 0/0F 93 F 55 F 1.09" 0.87" +0.22" Western Soybeans 89 F/66 F +3/+2F 98 F 56 F 0.19" 0.85" -0.66" Eastern Soybeans 86 F/66 F 0/0F 93 F 57 F 0.97" 0.87" +0.1" Northern Wheat Belt 92 F/61 F +5/+3F 100 F 47 F 0.18" 0.6" -0.42" Southern Wheat Belt 95 F/69 F +2/+1F 99 F 64 F 0.24" 0.69" -0.45" Western SE Cotton 91 F/73 F -1/0F 93 F 70 F 0.9" 1.02" -0.12" Eastern SE Cotton 93 F/74 F +2/+2F 98 F 68 F 0.97" 1.11" -0.14" Florida Citrus 94 F/75 F +2/+3F 96 F 74 F 0.61" 1.89" -1.28" *Avg Hi/Lo are the average forecast high and low temperatures for the next 7 days averaged over all cities in a region. **Highest and lowest forecast temperature is the absolute highest and lowest forecast temperature out of all cities in a given ag region

8 International Outlook Europe Weather Summary 2-5 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies 6-10 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Past 30 and 90 Day Precipitation Trends 30 Day Precip Anomalies 30 Day Year on Year Change Forecast Precipitation Trends 2-5 Day Forecast Totals 2-5 Day Forecast Anomaly 90 Day Precip Anomalies 90 Day Year on Year Change 6-10 Day Forecast Totals 6-10 Day Forecast Anomaly South America Weather Summary 2-5 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies 6-10 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Past 30 and 90 Day Precipitation Trends Forecast Precipitation Trends 30 Day Precip Anomalies 30 Day Year on Year Change 2-5 Day Forecast Totals 2-5 Day Forecast Anomaly 90 Day Precip Anomalies 90 Day Year on Year Change 6-10 Day Forecast Totals 6-10 Day Forecast Anomaly Major corn areas outlined. Major soybean areas outlined. Major wheat & coffee areas. Major cotton areas.

9 International Outlook Eastern Asia Weather Summary 2-5 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies 6-10 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Past 30 and 90 Day Precipitation Trends 30 Day Precip Anomalies 30 Day Year on Year Change Forecast Precipitation Trends 2-5 Day Forecast Totals 2-5 Day Forecast Anomaly 90 Day Precip Anomalies 90 Day Year on Year Change 6-10 Day Forecast Totals 6-10 Day Forecast Anomaly Major corn areas outlined Major soybean areas outlined Major rice areas outlined Major wheat areas outlined Australia Weather Summary 2-5 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies 6-10 Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Day Forecast Temp Anomalies Past 30 and 90 Day Precipitation Trends 30 Day Precip Anomalies 30 Day Year on Year Change Forecast Precipitation Trends 2-5 Day Forecast Totals 2-5 Day Forecast Anomaly 90 Day Precip Anomalies 90 Day Year on Year Change 6-10 Day Forecast Totals 6-10 Day Forecast Anomaly Major cotton areas outlined Major wheat areas outlined

10 Regional Average Temperatures New England Southwest South-Central C-N Plains Midwest C-S Florida Southeast Mid-Atlantic Northwest C-N Rockies Regional Daily Temperature and Precipitation Averages Consult Individual City Forecast Product for City Specific Temperature Forecasts Last 5 Days Next 10 Days Date 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Date 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Date 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Date 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Date 7/1 7/2 7/3 7/4 7/5 7/6 7/7 7/8 7/9 7/10 7/11 7/12 7/13 7/14 7/15 Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp Weekday Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Sat Avg High Avg Low Anomaly Avg Prcp

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