TFS WEATHER BRIEF. Monday, March 25

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1 TFS WEATHER BRIEF Monday, March 25 Review: The leading edge of cooler and drier air was pushing through Central and East TX this morning. A few lingering thunderstorms were in progress south of I-20 in East TX but much of the overnight activity translated into Louisiana. It was humid and warm with areas of fog on the Coastal Plains ahead of the frontal boundary. Light winds prevailed statewide. A look at estimated three day rainfall and a morning radar/ surface analysis is offered below:

2 Today: Widely Scattered PM Storms Southeast/ South TX. Cooler Northern Half. Forecast: The cold front will continue its southward progress, sliding into South TX by late afternoon. A few thunderstorms will pop along the frontal boundary over Southeast/ South TX, initially in the early afternoon hours, progressing to the Coastal Plains by evening. Locally gusty winds will accompany any strong storm. Otherwise, drier and cooler air will bleed southward under light north winds. In fact, winds statewide will be light away from the storms. Fire Weather: None. Dry air remains anchored west of the Pecos where minimum RH values fall below 20%. Winds will be light, however, thus elevated fire weather is not expected. Other Weather: Localized 0.25 inch rain totals will occur with any persistent afternoon storm but most areas of South/ Southeast TX will miss the rain entirely. Tue: Widely Scattered Showers Lower Rio Grande Valley/ Trans-Pecos; Breezy West TX. Forecast: A gentle high pressure ridge will nose into the eastern half providing seasonably cool and dry conditions. The return flow will be moist enough to permit a few afternoon showers during peak heating over the Lower Valley and combine with a weak upper disturbance to trigger light showers in the Trans-Pecos overnight. Breezy south winds will develop by afternoon over West TX but with temperatures low enough to boost RH values. A surface snapshot and 24 hour rain forecast are provided below: Fire Weather: None. The sustained surface winds of mph in West TX will be accompanied by RH values over 30%. RH in East TX will remain above 30%. Other Weather: Localized 0.10 inch and higher totals will be measured in the Trans-Pecos and South TX with many rain buckets remaining dry. Wed: Isolated Showers Western HP/ SP. Breezy Western Half. Forecast: The surface ridge will continue to edge into East/ Southeast TX providing clear skies and light winds. Return flow will expand eastward into the Rolling Plains and Hill Country as southerly surface winds exceed 15 mph. Enough moisture and surface heating will permit an isolated shower to form over the western High/ South Plains by afternoon with most locations remaining dry. Temperatures will hold slightly below to near normal levels for late March.

3 Fire Weather: None. A wide swatch of breezy sustained south winds of mph western half will be offset by RH values above 30%. Thus, elevated fire weather is not anticipated. RH values over portions of East TX may dip close to 30% during peak heating. Other Weather: An isolated 0.10 inch rain total will occur with any shower over the western HP. No weather hazards are forecast statewide. Thu-Fri: Possible Elevated Fire WX HP to upper TP, especially Fri. Little Rainfall. Forecast: The late week period will largely be tranquil as a warming trend takes hold. There will be noticeably more cloud cover statewide by Thursday anchoring morning lows above normal. Lee-side downsloping winds will lead to a sharpening dry line near the TX/ NM state line Thursday afternoon. Elevated fire weather will occur west of the dry line, mainly over the upper TP but expanding eastward into the High and South Plains Friday. West to southwest surface winds will be lighter Thursday vs Friday when mph speeds are measured. RH values in the dry air will easily fall below 20%, and likely dip below 10% over the TP. Gulf moisture will return to the eastern half Thu, raising RH values there. Little to no rainfall is expected statewide this period. A Friday surface snapshot and early afternoon surface wind depiction are shown below: Fire Weather: Elevated fire weather will be confined to the upper TP Thu but expand into the Panhandle and South Plains Fri as the dry line mixes further east. A trailing Pacific front may shift winds to the west-northwest over the western Plains Friday afternoon. This doesn t appear to be a high end fire weather event. Other Weather: No weather hazards are expected. Thunderstorm activity will be limited as warmer air aloft and a lack of a surface trigger cap development. Note: You can always view the weekly fire potential report using this TICC web link: You can also view this product on the TICC page via this link:

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