Crop / Weather Update

Transcription

1 Crop / Weather Update

2 Corn Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent As of September 9, USDA rates the crop at 68% good to excellent. The rating is up one point on the good category this week and one point overall. Crop rated poor to very poor was steady at 12%. Condition is up from last year at 61% good to excellent. The rating is substantially above the 10-year average at 60%. If we exclude the 2012 drought rating, it is still above the remaining years average at 65%. The weekly gain is contrary to the long-term tendencies for the rating to drop this week. The largest weekly point gains were 9 for Pennsylvania and 5 for North Carolina. Tennessee lost 3 points and there were 2 point losses for Colorado and Kentucky. Around the Great Lakes, Michigan and Wisconsin each added 3 points and Illinois added 2 points.

3 Corn Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 USDA issued the first corn harvesting progress at 5%. That is basically normal. States into double digits on progress were Kentucky at 24%, Missouri at 12%, N Carolina at 43%, Tennessee at 23% and Texas at 63%. Illinois was at 4% versus 2% on average. With favorable weather expected in the Midwest over the next week, there is the potential for strong progress that could advance the harvest to 10% or more by next week.

4 Cotton Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent Cotton suffered a second consecutive week of three point losses for the national rating. This week, USDA rates the crop at 38% good to excellent, down from 41% last week and 44% two weeks ago. It is interesting that the crop two weeks ago rated its highest for the crop year to date at 44%. Two weeks later and the 38% rating matches the low for the crop year set on June 17. Among the major states, five had weekly gains, two were unchanged, and eight reported weekly declines. Texas lost three points, and given its huge acreage, its change each week goes a long ways to determining the national revisions. There were some other large losses, led by Tennessee off 9 points and Missouri losing 8 points. Virginia gained 8 points, but with Hurricane Florence headed toward that state, it will obviously be subject to a major ratings downgrade over the next two weeks. Louisiana added 4 points and Alabama 2 points.

5 Cotton Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 11/25 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% In its initial harvest report, USDA stated the US progress at 10% complete. That is slightly up on 8% last year and the 5% average. Only four states report harvest percentages, and that is typical for early September. Texas leads at 18% harvested compared to 10% on average. Both Arizona and Louisiana are 8% and Mississippi is at 1%. Only a few percentage points of progress are expected over the next week.

6 Rice Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent The rice crop condition in the good/excellent category remains unchanged for the third consecutive week at 75%. This is 4 points above year-ago and 9 points above the 10-year average. It is usual for the crop condition to fall slightly during the beginning of September; but this year, it s not! The only state where the rice condition fell was Arkansas, which does grow the most rice in the U.S. The good/excellent condition rating is down 2 points to 70%. However, Missouri made up for those two points by going from 73% good/excellent last week to 75% this week. All the rest of the states remain the same: California 95% good/excellent, Louisiana 73%, Mississippi 76% and Texas far behind at 49%. The overall rice crop that falls in the poor condition also remains the same at a low 3%. So all in all, this should be a good rice harvest, which could affect futures prices with most of the crop being healthy.

7 Rice Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 This week, the rice crop harvest is 40% complete in the six states that grow rice, up 9 points from last week. It s 4 points above the 10-year average and 1 point under last year. All states have now started harvesting the crop: Arkansas is 33% complete, California 2%, Louisiana 89%, Mississippi 65%, Missouri 9% and Texas 92%. All states have made forward progress from the week before and are in-line with where they usually are during the September harvest, except for Mississippi. It is 16% more complete with harvesting than last year at this time.

8 Soybean Crop Condition Percent of Acreage Rated Good or Excellent /3 6/17 7/1 7/15 7/29 8/12 8/26 9/9 9/23 10/7 This week s soybean crop condition rating is up 2 points to 68% good/excellent and continues the trend that this year s soybean crop is extremely healthy. It is 8 points above both the year-ago and 10-year average, and instead of falling in the good/condition rating, as usual this time of year, this crop improved. Half of the major soybean-growing states improved their good/excellent condition rating this week, including some big leaps in Kansas (up 7% to 56% good/excellent), Louisiana (up 6% to 55%), North Carolina (up 4% to 63%) and Wisconsin (up 4 points to 77%). Nebraska and Illinois have two of the highest overall ratings at 82% and 79%, respectively, and both gained points in the good/excellent categories this week. Only three states had decreases in the top condition categories, and those were Tennessee down 4 points to 69% good/excellent, Michigan down 2 points to 63% and Ohio down 1 point to 79%. Five states remained unchanged, and four of those were 70% or above in the good/excellent categories (Indiana, Iowa, Kentucky and Mississippi). The only state still not above 50% in the top categories is Missouri (43% for the past two weeks), where several weeks of drought during the growing season hit the crop hard, and still 28% is reported in poor and very poor condition. The good news is that some of the surrounding Midwest states, such as Iowa and Illinois, grow more soybeans than Missouri, and their crops are healthier.

9 Spring Wheat Harvesting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 7/29 8/5 8/12 8/19 8/26 9/2 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 The spring wheat harvest is coming close to being finished for this growing season with reports of being 93% complete across the major spring-wheat-growing states. This is up 6 points from last week and only 1 point below last year s progress. South Dakota is finished for the year, reporting 100% complete this week. Minnesota is very close at 99% complete. Idaho farmers made the most progress this week, up 16 points to 89% complete whereas Montana and North Dakota also had good showings, up 8 points to 87% complete (Montana) and up 6 points to 94% complete (N. Dakota), respectively. Washington state producers did not make as much progress up 2 points to 90% complete this week. Idaho, Montana and Washington are each a few points behind where they were last year at this time.

10 Winter Wheat Planting Progress 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 9/9 9/16 9/23 9/30 10/7 10/14 10/21 10/28 11/4 11/11 11/18 This week, USDA reported that the winter wheat planting progress across the 18 major winter-wheat-growing states is 5%. This is the exact same progress as last year at this time and only 1 point below the 10-year average. Some states made notable progress at the beginning of this growing season, including: Washington at a whopping 29% complete compared to 14% year-ago, Idaho at 9% (5% year-ago), South Dakota 7% (4% year-ago) and Oregon 6% (1% year-ago). A few states are behind their normal planting progress the worst being Montana, where last year 11% of the winter wheat planting was complete and this year, there is none. Colorado (7% this year), Nebraska (4%) and California (0%) are all slightly behind last year s progress for the beginning of September. The other states are all showing normal progress for winter wheat planting or haven t begun yet.

11 Weather The map summarizes rainfall over the past week to Monday. There was heavy rainfall from a combination of frontal activity in the upper Midwest during the first half of the week. Toward the weekend, remnants from tropical storm Gordon worked their way north from landfall at the mid-gulf region and then moved their way northward up the Mississippi River Valley. The southern half of Illinois and then east from there up the Ohio River Valley recorded numerous multi-inch rains. Coincidentally, there were also heavy rains across portions of Texas, including a large portion of the West Texas cotton crop. It was common from Friday to Monday for rains to total between 4 and 6 inches with some totals topping 7 inches. Earlier in the week, the heaviest rains were found from Kansas northeastward to Wisconsin. The heavy central US rains were sandwiched between drier conditions to the Northwest and Southeast.

12 Weather The map displays Tuesday s seven-day rainfall forecast to next Tuesday. Again this week, the major weather event is a tropical storm. Last week it was Gordon. This week it is Florence. Forecast models update projections every few hours. As of Tuesday morning, the projection had Florence as a major hurricane reaching landfall about midway along the North Carolina coast about 8 am on Friday morning. Ahead of then and through the weekend, rains topping 10 inches and perhaps over 20 inches will drench North Carolina and Virginia. Serious damage is expected to crops. Most rains/damage are expected to be restricted to the Atlantic Coast. The weather across the Midwest looks to be mostly good for maturation and harvesting.

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