2018 mid-winter ag weather update

Transcription

1 E-book Bryce Anderson s 2018 mid-winter ag weather update

2 Table of contents Contributing weather patterns... 3 About the author An updated mid-winter forecast... 4 Early expectations for the growing season... 5 A look around the globe... 7 DTN Senior Ag Meteorologist Bryce Anderson delivers must-have daily weather commentary and in-depth seasonal weather forecasts for the company s subscribers. His insights and commentary are frequently featured on regional ag radio programs and in newspapers across the United States. Prior to DTN, Anderson was an award-winning farm broadcaster and ag meteorologist at radio and television stations in Iowa, Missouri, and Nebraska. He has degrees from the University of Nebraska and Mississippi State University.

3 Contributing weather patterns A moderate to weak La Niña pattern and periodic cold air due to a wavy polar vortex will make the second half of this winter feel similar to that of the season. Four years ago, winter brought several rounds of very cold air into the central and eastern United States. We have already had evidence of this type of pattern during the first few weeks of It appears that winter will be slow to come to an end. Such a trend hints that soils may be slow to warm for planting, delaying the start of spring field work. Variable polar jet stream Colder Wetter Warmer Drier Currently, the La Niña is at or near its peak, with most forecast models indicating that it will end during the spring. North American La Niña pattern; the storm track usually stays north mid-winter ag weather update

4 An updated mid-winter forecast Given the current influence of La Niña and the polar vortex, here is what you can expect for the remainder of this winter in the continental United States. What to expect Frequent cold Enhanced snowfall Protracted winter More seasonable Variable temperatures Augmented rain/snow Trending warmer Ample precipitation Primarily warmer Drier tendency Mounting dryness/drought mid-winter ag weather update

5 Early expectations for the growing season As mentioned, it is expected that this winter will be slow to end. This will likely mean a delayed start to the growing season as soil temperatures take more time to warm before field work and planting can begin. It is possible for patterns to become neutral by late spring/early summer, which may limit the possibility of drought in the corn belt. The 2018 crop season is shaping up to be one where at this time trendline yields are achievable. However, whether or not yields can maintain the robust production of the past four years is questionable. A slower start to the growing season appears likely mid-winter ag weather update

6 Early expectations for the growing season Drought in the northern and southern plains is likely to continue at some level through the entire season. Recent dry conditions in the Delta and southern Midwest put a premium on timely, sufficient precipitation to help re-charge soil profiles ahead of extensive plant moisture needs in spring and summer. The southeastern United States has the potential for dryness to impact production as well. Bryce s preliminary 2018 row crop prospects Residual dryness in certain sectors could make it challenging to achieve above-trendline yields, unlike the last four years. Variable conditions Trendline yields possible; above trendlines uncertain Variable conditions Trendline yields possible; above trendlines uncertain mid-winter ag weather update

7 A look around the world In the international arena, South American weather conditions are not perfect, but do not indicate major issues in total production potential. Brazil s largest-producing crop regions have had very favorable conditions. In early in 2018, the only area of Brazil with crop issues has been the northeast, but this is a minor producer overall. In Argentina, dry conditions have brought on a slight decrease in production estimates, but nothing on the order of a significant drop in production. Brazilian soybean production is at 110+ million metric tons mid-winter ag weather update

8 A look around the world The Black Sea region specifically Ukraine and Russia have favorable soil moisture and winter grain crops that are in good condition. This part of the world is a robust export competitor, and weather prospects for 2018 crops show no big threat to production. In addition, export terminals are being expanded in places like Novorossiysk due to warming climates and larger crop production. Ukraine & Russia are poised for a potentially good growing year mid-winter ag weather update

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