Future Climate Conditions in the Great Basin: What Do We Know / Not Know?

Transcription

1 Future Climate Conditions in the Great Basin: What Do We Know / Not Know? Kelly T. Redmond Western Regional Climate Center Desert Research Institute Reno Nevada Alternative Futures for the Great Basin Desert Research Institute Reno NV 2016 April 5

2 ??? What s all the fuss about??? One component of climate change 316 ppmv % 400 June 2013

3 History of carbon dioxide Washington Post

4 The Planetary Radiation Budget Net incoming = W/m 2 Net outgoing = W / m 2 Net energy income = W / m Trenberth, Fasullo, Kiehl, Earth s Global Energy Budget. Bulletin of AMS, 90,

5 How much energy? 60 watt light bulb Mostly heat (infrared radiation) 2 x CO 2 forcing increase is about 4 W / m 2 +/- 10 % 4 W / m 2 is about one bulb per 4x4 m Earth surface covers about 510 trillion square meters Place 30 trillion 60-watt bulbs uniformly over the earth As of 2013, about 19 trillion in place

6 Warming influences Cooling influences Greenhouse gases CO 2 - carbon dioxide (about 2/3 of total effect) CH 4 - methane N nitrous oxide ozone CFC - chloroflourocarbons Pollution and most aerosols Direct reflection Make clouds brighter Occasional volcanoes Some land use changes (minor) Some kinds of soot Some land use changes (minor) Solar activity (minor)

7 MODIS

8 090327:1925 GMT Redoubt Eruption From Homer AK. Jonathan Dehn.

9 Pollution / aerosols can make clouds brighter Ship trails

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11 History of Atmospheric Forcings Warming Hansen et al, Earth's energy imbalance: Confirmation and implications. Science, 308, Cooling Radiative Factors that Control Global Climate

12 Climate Models: Toys for Simulation

13 Climate System Processes That Need Representation

14 General Circulation Models Origin in daily prediction Solve Primitive Equations Conservation of momentum Newton s Law F=ma Navier-Stokes equations Conservation of mass Conservation of energy Hydrostatic equation Equation of state The ocean too!!! Atmosphere-Ocean GCMs A marriage made on earth A GIANT set of coupled equations Really complicated and difficult!!

15 Finest Model Resolution IPCC Reports (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) First Assessment Report Second Assessment Report Third Assessment Report Fourth Assessment Report AR5 Approx km (T220) Fifth Assessment Report

16 Grid resolution: Global Climate Model and Reanalysis Global Regional (slightly smaller; pixel resolution) AR4 Models ~ 1 degree on a side AR5 Models ~0.5 + / - Desired Resolution About 1 km.

17 2015 October Argo floats deployed.

18 Diary of ARGO Float #

19 Gazing into the future...

20 CMIP - Coupled Model Intercomparison Project CMIP 3 (2007 vintage) CMIP 5 (2012 vintage) AR5 - IPCC 5 th Assessment

21 Western Great Basin Temp and Precip Projections CMIP 3 Models One style of presentation

22 Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, USGS / Scripps start Dettinger MD From climate change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science. Vol. 3, Issue 1, (March 2005), Article 4.

23 Courtesy of Mike Dettinger, USGS / Scripps Dettinger MD From climate change spaghetti to climate-change distributions for 21st Century California. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed Science. Vol. 3, Issue 1, (March 2005), Article 4.

24 Central Great Basin Temp and Precip Projections CMIP 3 Models Another style of presentation

25 Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn East Central Nevada Projected Temperature Changes ( C ) Early 21 st Middle 21 st Late 21 st Figure: John Abatzoglou

26 East Central Nevada Projected Precipitation Changes ( % ) Early 21 st Middle 21 st Late 21 st Annual Winter Spring Summer Autumn Figure: John Abatzoglou

27 Seasonal Precipitation Percent change / CMIP 3 Models

28 CMIP 5 Models. Seasonal Precipitation / Small increase. Greenhouse Gasses. Large increase.

29 CMIP 3 (older) Comparison: Older vs Newer Percentage change in median annual precipitation CMIP 5 (newer) from to West and Southwest do not dry as much in newer runs Difference CMIP 5 minus CMIP 3 in percentage points gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip_projections/images/welcometab_files/welcome_figure1_cmip5.png

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31 Monthly Temperature Departures

32 Nevada Statewide Temperature Annual Calendar Year

33 Nevada Statewide Maximum Temperature Annual Calendar Year

34 Nevada Statewide Minimum Temperature Annual Calendar Year

35 March 10, / 1800 mm 55 / 1400 mm 12 / 300 mm 7.5 / 170 mm

36 North American Freezing Level Tracker

37 Annual mean freezing level over Ely Nevada NCEP Reanalysis

38 Long Draw Fire 557,648 acres as of July 17 Oregon s largest fire ever MODIS 1 km 2012 July 11

39 Long Draw Fire SE Oregon 2012 July 24 Jamie Francis, Oregonian

40 Long Draw Fire SE Oregon 2012 July 24 Jamie Francis, Oregonian

41 Number of acres Acres burned U.S. Fires through October 2, 2015 Values after 1990 adjusted by NIFC in Ave from = 6.25 M acres Year Western Regional Climate Center Source: National Interagency Fire Center w w.nifc.gov /nicc/sitreprt.pdf

42 Sep 28, 1999 Sep 26, 2000 Sep 25, 2001 Sep 24, 2002 Sep 30, 2003 Sep 21, 2004

43 Sep 27, 2005 Sep 26, 2006 Sep 25, 2007 Sep 30, 2008 Sep 29, 2009 Sep 28, 2010

44 Sep 28, 2010 Sep 27, 2011 Sep 26, 2012 Sep 24, 2013 Sep 30, 2014 Jun 30, 2015

45 Water budgets are not only about precipitation Temperature as a hydrologic element (Also wind and humidity)

46 Flow Projections Temperature increase is equivalent to Precipitation decrease Colorado River at Lees Ferry Decline of 2-9 % per degree C Decline of 1-5 % per degree F Or, for +3 C rise by 2060, Best estimate: % decline Vano, Das, Lettenmaier, Hydrologic Sensitivities of Colorado River Runoff to Changes in Precipitation and Temperature. J Hydrometeorology, 13, DOI: /JHM-D

47 Colorado River Basin. Supply and Demand Bureau of Reclamation Colorado River Basin Supply and Demand Study.

48 Lessons from History. Colorado River Flow. Lees Ferry. Reconstructed 762 thru 2005 A.D. Red: Gauged record. Blue: Reconstructed record. 20-Year moving averages. Meko, D.M., C.A. Woodhouse, C.H. Baisan, T. Knight, J.J. Lukas, M.K. Hughes, and M.W. Salzer, Medieval drought in the upper Colorado River basin. Geophysical Research Letters 34m L10705, doi: /2007GL029988

49 Benjamin Cook, Toby Ault, Jason Smerdon, Unprecedented 21 st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Science Advances, 12 Feb /sciadv

50 Central Plains Central Plains Southwest Southwest Benjamin Cook, Toby Ault, Jason Smerdon, Unprecedented 21 st century drought risk in the American Southwest and Central Plains. Science Advances, 12 Feb /sciadv

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52 CMIP 3 CMIP 5 Upper Colorado Basin The newer CMIP 5 Temp change Precip change projections are wetter than Oct Sep Oct Sep the older CMIP 3 projections. Truckee Basin But, also a little warmer, too.

53 The Climate We Remember Extremes

54 Meehl, G. A., C. Tebaldi, G. Walton, D. Easterling and L. McDaniel Relative increase of record high maximum temperatures compared to record low minimum temperatures in the U.S. Geophysical Research Letters 36: L23701; doi: /2009GL Graphic courtesy NCAR.

55 Dead lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) in Rocky Mountain National Park caused by attacks of mountain pine beetles (Dendroctonus ponderosae). Photo Jeff Mitton.

56 Raffa et al., 2008

57 How much water can the atmosphere hold? Clausius-Clapeyron relation for plane (flat) water surface Saturation vapor pressure increases % per 5 C increase

58 Precipitable Water Maximum Values 7 CMIP5 Models Present mm Future / Percent increase Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP) and Climate Change. Kunkel, Karl, Easterling, Redmond, Young, Yin, Hennon Geophysical Research Letters

59 The eye of the beholder

60 Annual 1-day max ( inches ) 2.50 Reno Airport. Annual 1 day maximum precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from 1937 thru Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-year running mean Year W estern Regional Climate Center

61 Annual 7-day max ( inches ) 5.00 Reno Airport. Annual 7-day maximum precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from 1937 thru Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-year running mean Year W estern Regional Climate Center

62 Annual 30-day max ( inches ) 6.00 Reno Airport. Annual 30-day maximum precipitation. Units: Inches. Data from 1937 thru Red: Individual years. Blue: 9-year running mean Year W estern Regional Climate Center

63 Bonnin et al, Figure 6. Short storms Getting more extreme Long storms (1 day +) Getting less extreme ( So Far!! )

64 Observed difference in extreme event precipitable water: minus (Kunkel, AMS 2011)

65 How would climate change actually be played out? 50 years = 18,262 days = 438,291 hours Fluctuations in climate will be experienced through weather

66 Climate Complexity Our ability to predict aspect of this system is not as hopeless as it might seem! Stitched Image IR, 2013 Mar GMT

67 This is a forecast! What could possibly go wrong??? Largest sources of uncertainty: NASA Earth Observatory Clouds Aerosols Deep Oceans Amazon biomass burning. NASA Goddard

68 NOAA National Climatic Data Center A Sensitive Matter. The Economist Mar 20. Q: What are we to make of this?

69 Mean Annual Temperature ( C ) One of 36 ensembles (models/runs) 9 CMIP3, A2, Annual T, Tahoe City. Individual and 7-year running mean. Smooth rise not expected! Year Data Thanks to Justin Huntington

70 A bewildering array Reports... Papers... Web Pages... Groups... Institutions... Activities A few recent reports For your reading enjoyment

71 U.S. Global Change Research Program National Climate Assessment nca2014.globalchange.gov/report

72 Island Press pp 20 Chapters

73 NOAA Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for US National Climate Assessment s/ 142_Climate_Scenarios.html

74 Released September 30, or just Google IPCC

75 Change is not new. Change in the pipeline. Cannot be called back.

76 Summary Points Climate Change and the West Provides one more source of variability. Old variability continues. System still has unrealized warming; earth radiation not in balance Consensus: Strong on temperature. Weaker on precipitation... narrowing?? Respect the consensus, but allow that parts of it may be wrong. A good reason to stress resilience. If it s in the future, it s still a forecast. From weather: An experienced forecaster is a humble forecaster. An ounce of observation is worth a pound of forecast. We routinely act on the basis of imperfect information. Choice: Adaptation versus mitigation Managing the unavoidable and avoiding the unmanageable

77 Thank You!

78 Discards

79 United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

80 thru Aug United States Annual Temperature Departure from Mean NOAA Divisional Data, Western Regional Climate Center, Plotted by ESRL PSD

81 Climate Change A new kind of problem for humans Scale: very small (molecules) to very large (Earth) Involves the workings of the entire earth Climate system as a thoroughly connected system Begins with physics, ends with human behavior Caused by each of us individually, but must be addressed collectively

82 Cycle 24 (Max)

83 How many grid points? Earth seems to be shrinking, but still a big place There are a LOT of points on the earth. How big is the sky??? 4*pi*r*r (r= deg) yields 41,253 square degrees in a sphere! Moon and sun: About half a degree of angle So... about 165,000 moons would fit in the sky 1 degree is about 70 mi or 111 km (by definition!!) For 1 degree by 1 degree model, 40 levels, ten minute time step, 100 years... A HUGE number of calculations!

84 Average of 19 climate models years from 2013 Figure by Gabriel Vecchi. CMIP 3 es/div/ocp/drought/scienc e.shtml R. Seager, M.F. Ting, I.M. Held, Y. Kushnir, J. Lu, G. Vecchi, H.-P. Huang, N. Harnik, A. Leetmaa, N.-C. Lau, C. Li, J. Velez, N. Naik, Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America. Science, DOI: /science

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86 Annual Mean Temperatuire ( F ) 53 Western United States (11 states) Annual Jan-Dec Temperature Red: Individual Years. Blue: 11-year running mean. Units: Deg F. Data from NOAA Cooperative Network thru Dec Year W estern Regional Climate Center

87 Winter Freezing Level over Ely Nevada Spring Summer Autumn

88 White Mountain Summit (14,245 ft) Summit Station Measured Daily Temp vs Temp Estimated from 600mb Global Reanalysis (see grid map) Correlation Coefficient 30-day running mean Frequency Distribution of errors Estimated minus Observed For NPS Southern Sierra Project Thanks to Matt Fearon

89 Reconstructed Annual Temperature of White Mountain Summit (14245 ft) based on NCAR/NCEP Global Reanalysis ~4 years of overlap Thanks to Matt Fearon

90 Precipitation change (~2055) percent change from Based on regional models. 50 km spatial grid Regional Climate Trends and Scenarios for the U.S. National Climate Assessment. NOAA Technical Report NESDIS 142. Draft January Part 9. Climate of the Contiguous United States

91 Max Precip (inches) Max Precip (inches) Max Precip (inches) Max Precip (inches) 7 LAX. Winter max 1-day precip. Rep " s.d. 1.00" skew Ave precip increases to 135 pct. 6 LAX. Winter max 1-day precip. Rep " s.d. 1.00" skew Ave precip increases to 135 pct. An Experiment. Four Climates: Are they changing? Year Western Regional Climate Center Year Western Regional Climate Center 7 LAX. Winter max 1-day precip. Rep " s.d. 1.00" skew Ave precip increases to 135 pct. 6 LAX. Winter max 1-day precip. Rep " s.d. 1.00" skew Ave precip increases to 135 pct Year Western Regional Climate Center Year Western Regional Climate Center

92 Max Precip (inches) Max Precip (inches) Max Precip (inches) Max Precip (inches) 7 LAX. Winter max 1-day precip. Rep " s.d. 1.00" skew Ave precip increases to 135 pct. 6 LAX. Winter max 1-day precip. Rep " s.d. 1.00" skew Ave precip increases to 135 pct Year Western Regional Climate Center Year Western Regional Climate Center 7 LAX. Winter max 1-day precip. Rep " s.d. 1.00" skew Ave precip increases to 135 pct. 6 LAX. Winter max 1-day precip. Rep " s.d. 1.00" skew Ave precip increases to 135 pct Year Western Regional Climate Center Year Western Regional Climate Center

93 Annual Mean Temperature ( C ) 10 6 Models, CMIP-3, A2, Tahoe City. 7-year running means, annual Tave. Runs 5, 9, 11, 20, 28, Year Data Thanks to Justin Huntington