Climate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector. Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist

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1 Climate Impacts to Southwest Water Sector Dr. Dave DuBois New Mexico State Climatologist Presented at EPA Extreme Events and Climate Adaptation Planning Workshop June 3, 2015

2 Water Year Precip. % of Average Eastern NM and CO were above average for WY2015 Far west drought continues

3 Water Year Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) wet dry This places it in context of standard deviations from the mean

4 All NM Dry Average Wet Long-term Drought

5 US Drought Monitor Drought classification puts drought in historical perspective DM Level Name Frequency D0 Abnormally dry 3-5 years D1 Moderate drought 5-10 yrs D2 Severe drought yrs D3 Extreme drought yrs D4 Exceptional drought yrs

6 State-wide in NM since last El Niño summer 2010 summer 2011 summer 2012 summer 2013 summer 2014

8 Rio Grande Basin MODIS-Terra False color infrared to highlight snow cover (red) 11 May 2015

9 Rio Grande Basin+ Snow Observations

10 NM state-wide JAS precip. since was El Nino and highly positive PDO annual average 13.99" JAS represents 46% of annual state-wide precipitation

Stream flow on Rio Grande At Otowi Gauge Otowi bridge at highway 502

11 Stream flow on Rio Grande At Otowi Gauge Otowi bridge at highway day average flow in cubic feet per second

12 Forecast El Niño is expected through Winter Seasonal Predictions Majority of the models predict continued warmth of Pacific sea surface temperatures through winter Niño 3.4 region At least a moderate strength event

13 Seasonal Forecast Probabilities El Niño ENSO conditions most likely through the winter

14 Impacts of El Niño duirng Winter

15 Impacts of El Nino Events in NM Courtesy NWS ABQ

Look back at 1997-1998 strong El Niño Oct.

16 Look back at strong El Niño Oct to May 1998 snowfall percent of ave. 350 Light blue: 1981 to 2010 average Courtesy NWS ABQ

17 Impacts of La Nina Events in NM Percent of normal for DJF Courtesy NWS ABQ

18 June-August Precipitation Outlook What will the monsoon look like? Between 33 to 40 percent chance that NM and CO will have above average precipitation

19 In the warm season, in addition to the monsoon, we need to consider the importance of tropical systems Have been significant in Sept. and Oct.

20 Dec.-Feb. Precipitation Outlook What will next winter look like? Typical El Niño pattern for the country: likely wetter than average in southern states and drier in northwest

21 Recent Observations of Change State-wide temperatures of last decade were warmest of this century Morning lows getting warmer on top of urban heat island (not all locations) Longer growing season Freezing level higher in elevation Snowmelt earlier; some years affected by dust storms

22 We ve experienced warmer temperatures Colorado climate division 2 (Colorado Drainage) Last decade ( ) among the warmest in the last century New Mexico climate division 2 (Northern Mountains)

23 Impacts to the Southwestern US Southwest Climate Assessment, 2013

Changing streamflow timing 2001 2010 compared to 1950 2000 Differences between 2001 2010 and 1950 2000 average date when half of the annual

24 Changing streamflow timing compared to Differences between and average date when half of the annual streamflow has been discharged (center of mass) for snowmelt dominated streams (Stewart, Cayan and Dettinger 2005). Southwest Climate Assessment (2013)

25 Summary of recent reports 2013 SW Climate Assessment Agricultural pests can persist year-around New pests and diseases may become established Optimal location for specific crops will change Need to consider adjustment costs such as capital investments, establishing new trees, etc. Shift the mix of crops grown Increase the use of water management info systems Increase use of decision making tools

26 Summary of recent reports 2013 EPA report on Rio Grande watershed Mid-century precipitation 91% of current Mid-century median temperature to rise by 5.1 F Total streamflow volume 71% of current 2013 DOI Upper Rio Grande Assessment End of century temperatures to rise between 4-6 F Decrease in overall water availability Changes in timing of flows Increases in variability of flows

near Newcomb, NM during the May 22, 2010 dust storm View from

27 One of the may impacts of drought Dust storm lasted >6 hours and transported dust to San Juan Mountains in CO Very erodible rangeland near Newcomb, NM during the May 22, 2010 dust storm View from highway 491 Above: Longwave IR difference image shows dust plumes as red/orange

28 Dust on Snow 2009 May 19. San Juan Mtns. Source from NE AZ and NW NM Snow Optics Lab - JPL

29 Hydrometeorolgy Planning Horizons Event Driven (now to 15 days) - weather Sub-seasonal (2 weeks to 3 months) - frontier Seasonal (3 months to years) - climate Graphic from Dan Barrie, NOAA

8-14 day, WPC QPF Storm Prediction Center guidance US and

30 Event Driven (now to 15 days) Dynamic weather forecast models RAP, GFS, NAM, ECMWF, others Expert guidance CPC 6-10 day, CPC 8-14 day, WPC QPF Storm Prediction Center guidance US and Global hazards outlooks National Hurricane Center NESDIS satellite center

31 Sub-Seasonal (2 weeks to 3 months) CPC monthly and seasonal outlooks CPC week 3 to 4 experimental outlooks In strategic plan of CPC in FY15 Temperature and precipitation probabilities and anomalies 500mb height anomalies & mean TBD???

32 Seasonal (3 months to years) Expert guidance CPC seasonal outlooks (precipitation, temperature, sea surface temperature) Hurricane outlooks Teleconnections Statistical tools Dynamic models North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) (CFSv2, GFDL, NCAR, others)

33 CoCoRaHS Community Collaborative Rain Hail and Snow network Citizen science at its best Let s work together to measure precipitation... Be a volunteer! Looking for more NM volunteers Sign up:

34 Dr. Dave DuBois State Climatologist New Mexico State University YouTube.com/nmclimate

Our Changing Climate. Dave DuBois. State Climatologist

Our Changing Climate. Dave DuBois. State Climatologist Our Changing Climate Dave DuBois State Climatologist The NM Sustainable Agriculture Conference, November 30, 2016 Global Temperature in 2016 https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201610 Climate Change