MET PANEL (METP) MET OPERATIONS GROUP (MOG) INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH (IAVW)

Transcription

1 METP MOG/8 -SN/11 28/10/18 MET PANEL (METP) MET OPERATIONS GROUP (MOG) INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH (IAVW) EIGHTH MEETING Wellington, New Zealand, 12 to 14 November 2018 Agenda Item 6: VAAC Management Reports 6.1: VAAC Management Reports: Wellington, Washington, Toulouse, Tokyo, Montreal, London, Darwin, Buenos Aires, Anchorage COMBINED VAAC MANAGEMENT REPORT FOR VAACS ANCHORAGE AND WASHINGTON (Presented by VAACs Anchorage and Washington) SUMMARY This paper presents the management reports from VAACs Anchorage and Washington. This report covers the 15-month period beginning 1 July 2017 through 30 September INTRODUCTION 1.1 The United States (U.S.) has accepted the responsibility for establishing two VAACs within the framework of the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) as defined in Annex 3 Meteorological Service for International Air Navigation. These two are VAAC Anchorage (located in Anchorage, Alaska) and VAAC Washington (located in College Park, Maryland). 1.2 Introduction of VAAC Anchorage: Under the U.S. Department of Commerce (DOC) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) National Weather Service (NWS), the Alaska Aviation Weather Unit (AAWU) is designated as VAAC Anchorage. VAAC Anchorage supports the Anchorage Meteorological Watch Office (MWO) which is responsible for aviation forecasting and warning support within the Anchorage flight information region (FIR). In addition to the MWO, the NWS also operates a Center Weather Service Unit (CWSU) co-located in the Anchorage Air Route Traffic Control Center (ARTCC). (8 pages) METP MOG/8 METP WG MOG 8 VA SN011_Combined_VAAC_report_from_USA.docx

2 METP MOG/8-SN/ VAAC Anchorage s area of responsibility includes the entire Anchorage FIR in addition to an area of far Eastern Russian bounded by 150 East longitude, and on the south with the boundary of VAAC Washington. This area includes all the volcanoes within the state of Alaska and, in addition, VAAC Anchorage closely monitors adjacent volcanoes located in the Kamchatka Peninsula and the Northern Kurile Islands of Russia. 1.3 Introduction of VAAC Washington: Under the U.S. DOC, NOAA, VAAC Washington is a collaborative effort of both the National Centers of Environmental Prediction (NCEP) of the NWS and the Office of Satellite Products and Operations (OSPO), of the National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS). VAAC Washington is within the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) and co-located with Air Resource Laboratory (ARL) VAAC Washington s area of responsibility stretches from 40 degrees West longitude to 130 degrees East and includes the areas of the U.S. Continental, New York and Oakland Oceanic FIRs and southward through Central America, the Caribbean to 10 degrees South latitude in South America. VAAC Washington supports twenty three MWOs under its area of responsibility, numerous area control centers (ACC) and the volcano observatories as listed in the Facilities and Services Implementation Document (FASID) of the CAR/SAM and ASIA/PAC regions. 2. DISCUSSION 2.1 This section describes the operations of VAACs Anchorage and Washington in accordance with the IAVW in describing the issuance of volcanic ash advisories (VAAs), identification of significant eruptions that influenced the performance of operations, changes in operational procedures or use of technology to enhance operational capability of the VAAC, and issues related to backup operations. 2.2 Issuance of advisories For the period 1 July 2017 through 30 September 2018 Anchorage VAAC Washington VAAC Advisories issued Text - VAA Graphic Number of volcanoes within the VAACs area of responsibility that were issued advisories 6 18

3 - 3 - METP MOG/8-SN/11 Volcanoes with the most advisories issued. (Top 5) 1. Bogoslof = 59 VAA and 2. Sheveluch = 50 VAA and 3. Pavlof = 28 VAA and 4.Veniaminof = 8 VAA and 5. Cleveland = 6 VAA and 1. Reventador = 1561 VAA / Fuego = 819 VAA / Popocatepetl = 675 VAA / Turrialba = 329 VAA / Sangay = 155 / Key Performance Indicators: An outcome of the most recent VAAC Best Practice and Met Operations Group (MOG) meetings (Tokyo, 5-9 June 2017 and June 2017 respectively) was a commitment, from 1 st January 2018, for all VAACs to adhere to certain Key Performance Indictors (KPIs) relating to the issuance of and VAA products, as follows: i) Following the collection of sufficient evidence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere within a VAAC s Area of Responsibility, the Initial /VAA product should be issued within 20 minutes on 95% of occasions. ii) Following the collection of sufficient evidence of volcanic ash in the atmosphere within a VAAC s Area of Responsibility, the first forecast /VAA product should be issued within 75 minutes on 95% of occasions. For the period 1 January through 30 September 2018 Anchorage VAAC Washington VAAC Advisories issued on time Initial VAA 98% within 20 minutes (based upon forecasters first notification VAAC Anchorage standard is 10 minutes) 100 % within 20 minutes (based on analysts first notification (VAAC Washington standard is 5 minutes) Standard VAA 100% within 75 minutes (VAAC Anchorage standard is 45 minutes) 100 % within 75 minutes (VAAC Washington standard is 45 minutes) Next advisory due by time 98.0% 98.8 %

4 METP MOG/8-SN/ Significant eruptions in the VAAC area of responsibility VAAC Anchorage: Bogoslof Event Aleutian Islands: (July 1 st and ended August 30 th ) Daily telecons with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) FAA ARTCC/NWS Center Weather Service Unit WFO Anchorage. In addition to the aviation hazard, there was also a public and marine hazard due to ashfall. Sheveluch Events Kamchatka, Russia: (July 3, 2017 through January 13, 2018) Bilingual forms to Tokyo VAAC (as needed for coordination or handover), daily telcons with FAA ARTCC/NWS Center Weather Service Unit coordination with USGS on occasion as needed. Katmai Events (resuspensed ash) Alaska: (November 13, 2017 through September 30, 2018) Frequent telecons with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) FAA ARTCC/NWS Center Weather Service Unit WFO Anchorage. In addition to the aviation hazard, there was also a public and marine hazard due to ashfall VAAC Washington: Kilauea Event - Hawaii: May 3 June 23, Total Advisories issues for the event: 150 VAA and 80 Daily telecons with National Weather Service (NWS) Honolulu Weather Forecast Office (WFO), United States Geological Survey (USGS) Honolulu Volcano Observatory (HVO), Air Resource Laboratory (ARL) and on certain instances the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). It was a large on the ground event than aviation. Fuego Event - Guatemala: June 3 4, 2018 Total Advisories issued for the event: 8 VAA and 4 Large eruption event with ash to FL500 and moving in multiple directions. VAAC Washington was first to notify the Institute National of Seismology, Volcanology, Meteorology and Hydrology (INSIVUMEH) and the Tegucigalpa Meteorological Watch Office (MWO). Hundreds of deaths were reported for the event. Since the eruption event the area has been susceptible to pyroclastic flows and lahars. Negra, Sierra Event Galapagos Islands: June 26 August 5, 2018

5 - 5 - METP MOG/8-SN/11 Total Advisories issues for the event: 53 VAA and 34 First advisories issued for the volcano since 2005 (32 that year). The event started off with increased seismic activity beginning on the 23 rd of June. On June 26 th a large explosion of Volcanic Ash and Sulphur Dioxide (SO2) to near FL350 event was reported and seen in satellite imagery. For over a month the volcano produced moderate quantities of ash and large quantities of SO2. Trying to receive information during the event was very difficult. Parque Nacional Galapagos through the Geophysical Institute provided occasional updates on the event. In early July a camera was setup to help monitor the volcano. 2.5 Significant operation or technical changes VAAC Anchorage: Alaska Interagency Plan for Volcanic Ash Episodes: Plan rewritten to provide better organization and consistency between agencies. All written sections were updated, phone numbers reviewed and updated as necessary. Plan exists on the AVO web page and hard copies were produced/distributed to key partners. Training and Operational Procedures: VAAC Anchorage has had a relative lull in volcanic ash episodes as compared to prior years. Due to relative low number of events during this period, the need arose to provide additional training. Our Science and Operations Officer developed forecaster training on a non-operational workstation to ensure that all of our forecasters have proficiency during an actual event. AAWU and VAAC Anchorage webpages: Recent changes to system management of our web pages has resulted in an effort to make significant changes to our web page. Due to a lack of IT resources at our office and in the NWS Alaska Region as a whole, many of these updates have been put on hold for the time being. Higher priority operational web issues are attended to first and foremost. Once sufficient resources are in place, the VAAC Anchorage webpage will be updated. VAAC Anchorage Operational Platform update: The AAWU and VAAC Anchorage software known as Interactive Collaboration in Four Dimensions (IC4D) will be ported into the main NWS operational workstation knows as Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS). The tools used to create SIGMETs and VAAs may need to remain in IC4D until such time the NWS developed Hazard Services tool is completed and integrated into AWIPS. A decision will need to be made how we will bridge current operations into a time such that the Hazard Services tool is ready to be moved into operations. Several options are being discussed, although it is unclear at this time what the precise path will be VAAC Washington: Operational GOES-16/17: GOES-16 was used at VAAC Washington in experimental mode starting in mid June of The satellite replaced GOES-13 and became the official GOES-East satellite on December 18, Months of testing, hundreds of man hours took place for implementation at VAAC Washington and other programs within the Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB). The temporal, spatial and spectral resolution has been a significant tool in the monitoring of volcanoes. The same process is currently

6 METP MOG/8-SN/ going on with GOES-17, but less time will be needed to meet needs and requirements based on what was learned in the GOES-16 transition. GOES-17 will replace GOES-15 as the official GOES-West satellite on December 10, RGB implementation into McIDAS: VAAC Washington System IT Program Lead with the help of Dr. Michael Pavalonis of NESDIS STAR was able to get a replication of the VOLCAT RGB imagery recipe into McIDAS for operations. This has been a tremendous asset for our analysts along with the alerts received from VOLCAT over the last few years. Training and Operational procedures: VAAC Washington has gone a tremendous effort to retool operational and training procedures. The Standard of Procedures (SOP) was rewritten to make sure all operational aspects are included. A Volcanic Ash Pocket guide was created for the more pertinent operational procedures and information. A new training guide that sets out a clear objective for certification was created. The analysts will go through 6-8 weeks of training, must complete eight to ten COMET Modules and must complete a two day certification. After certification, analysts must be re-certified every two years. NWS Chat and Facebook/Twitter accounts: VAAC Washington received official approval from DOC and NOAA for Twitter and Facebook accounts. Analysts are now able to post all VAA/ messages and satellite imagery to VAAC Washington Twitter page. This is important tool for disseminating information to our Central and South America users. An automated script is in the process of being created to post all messages and satellite imagery to the VAAC Washington account. It will be similar to the automated script that was already created to post all message by the analysts to NWS Chat accounts. NWS and FAA users can now see our VAA on the NWS Chat page and collaborate on the event when needed. VAAC Washington Webpage: VAAC Washington is in the process of updating its webpage to be cleaner and more efficient for users to find information needed during an eruption. It will still have archived messages from VAAC Washington going back to 1999 and some of the other volcano related information. VAAC Washington Platform VAAC Washington is currently in the exploration phase of looking into finding a new platform to produce VAA/. VAAC Washington would like to thank VAAC Darwin, London and Wellington in providing live demos for the Visual Weather platform and the other VAAC in providing details of the platform they use in volcanic ash operations VAAC backup including any participation in exercises VAAC Anchorage: VAAC Anchorage does not officially back up another VAAC at this time. Lack of computer resources and sufficient satellite data coverage prohibit this from happening.

7 - 7 - METP MOG/8-SN/11 VAAC Anchorage is in discussions with VAAC Washington to examine the feasibility of covering a portion of the VAAC Washington area of responsibility (AoR) in the event Washington VAAC is unable to provide services. Global tests conducted: 1. Mt Baker Exercise October 15-19, 2018 (Although VAAC Anchorage did not participate in the tabletop exercise formally, the VAAC manager did travel to Bellingham, WA on October 19, 2018 to participate in the exercise hotwash and discussions. The VAAC manager was interested to see how this all-hazards volcano exercise played out. A similar exercise may be planned in Anchorage in the future.) 2. VOLKAM18 Exercise April 20-21, VAAC Washington: VAAC Washington is the official backup for VAAC Anchorage, Buenos Aires, and Montreal. A Memorandum of Agreement (MOA) between VAAC Washington and VAAC Montreal and Buenos Aires is in the process of being formalized. A MOA between VAAC Washington and VAAC Anchorage is in the process of being updated. VAAC Montreal, Anchorage and Darwin are in the process of examining the potential of being a backup to VAAC Washington. 2.6 Other VAAC Montreal and VAAC Washington conducted backup test on March 7 and April The tests were conducted to confirm if VAAC Washington can disseminate VAAC Montreal VAA and. It was confirmed that the VAA can reach all locations, but the could not reach VAAC Montreal website. Further test will be conducted in The Air Force/557 th is the official backup for VAAC Washington. Monthly backups are scheduled on the 16 th of each month with the occasional surprise backup when desired. VAAC Washington and the 557 th are still waiting on the official MOA between the US Air Force and NOAA to be signed off. The 557 th is in the process of being able to create the Volcanic Ash Graphic (), a close duplicate to the 4 panel created by VAAC Washington. Global Test conducted: 1. VOLKAM18 Exercise April 20-21, GREPECAS Exercise December Mt Baker Exercise October 15-19, 2018 VAAC Washington did participate in the exercise. They sent out a Mt Baker VAA/, ran a HYSPLIT and coordinated with the Aviation Weather Center (AWC), Cascades Volcano Observatory (CVO), NWS Seattle, and other groups. VAAC Washington provided feedback before and after the exercise VAAC Anchorage

8 METP MOG/8-SN/ VAAC Anchorage has five lead forecasters, six journeyman forecasters, a Science and Operations Officer, and Meteorologist in Charge (VAAC manager) who are certified and can perform volcanic ash duties in addition to other aviation forecasting duties from the period July 1, 2017 to September 30, VAAC Washington VAAC Washington certified five analysts from July, through September 30, A total of 10 analysts are currently certified and can perform volcanic ash duties along with other duties. 3. ACTION BY THE METP-WG/MOG 3.1 The METP-WG/MOG is invited to: a) note the information contained in this paper; and, b) accept the combined VAAC Management Report as presented. END