INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONS GROUP (IAVWOPSG)

Transcription

1 International Civil Aviation Organization 29/11/13 WORKING PAPER INTERNATIONAL AIRWAYS VOLCANO WATCH OPERATIONS GROUP (IAVWOPSG) EIGHTH MEETING Melbourne, Australia, 17 to 20 February 2014 Agenda Item 5: Operation of the IAVW (Deliverables 01, 03, 04 and 05) 5.1: Implementation of the IAVW, including the IAVW management reports (Deliverable 01) VAAC TOULOUSE MANAGEMENT REPORT (Presented by France) SUMMARY This paper presents the International Airways Volcano Watch Management Report of volcanic ash advisory centre Toulouse for the year 2013, for consideration and review by the group. 1. INTRODUCTION 1.1 The area of responsibility of Toulouse volcanic ash advisory centre (VAAC) encompasses nearly two hundred flight information regions (FIRs) located over five air navigation regions (European (EUR), Middle East (MID), Africa-Indian Ocean (AFI), Asia (ASIA) and North Atlantic (NAT) ) on three continents in both hemispheres. 1.2 The VAAC is operated 24/7 by Meteo-France in Toulouse at the National Forecast Centre by seventeen MET engineers specialized in aviation weather forecasts. 2. ISSUANCE OF VOLCANIC ASH ADVISORIES 2.1 In 2013 (until 15 November), Toulouse VAAC issued forty-five operational volcanic ash advisories messages (VAA) and volcanic ash graphics (VAG) over the EUR/NAT region, forty-four related to Mount ETNA eruptions and one for Heard Island: (5 pages) IAVWOPSG.8.WP en.docx

2 In 2013, Toulouse VAAC issued thirteen advisories (text and graphics) and two VAAs for test exercise purposes over the EUR/NAT region: a) VAA/VAG issued for KATLA (Iceland) for the second day of VOLCEX13/01 exercise; b) VAA/VAG issued for GRIMSVÖTN (Iceland) during 3 back-up tests with VAAC London; c) 3 VAA/VAG issued for Furnas during the VOLCEX13/02 exercise; d) 1 VAA triggering the VASIGMET routine test in ASIA/PAC region; and e) 1 VAA triggering the VASIGMET routine test in AFI region. 3. SIGNIFICANT ERUPTIONS IN VAAC TOULOUSE AREA 3.1 In 2013, Mount Etna was active from mid-january to end of April with about twenty active episodes reported by INGV (Istituto Nazionale de Geofisica e Vulcanologia). Activity resumed on the first days of September then decreased. Since mid-october new sporadic activity with very short eruptions and occasional longer ones has started again. 3.2 According to the Global Volcanism Program Weekly Reports, most of the activity was lava-fountaining up to some hundreds of meters and reaching 600 to 800 meters during paroxysmal events. Strombiolian eruptions with ash emission occurred in many occasions, producing ash falling down generally in the 10 to 15 kilometres around the crater, but as far as 80 km from the volcano on 21st of February. 3.3 According to advanced satellite imagery, the ash clouds generated by ETNA during the first semester of 2013 were mostly composed of SO 2. In the rare cases when ash was detectable from space-borne sensors, ash remained close to the volcano and was no longer visible after one hour in the drifting volcanic cloud. 4. SIGNIFICANT OPERATION/TECHNICAL CHANGES 4.1 VAAC Toulouse tried to enhance the consistency between concentration charts still required by the EUR/NAT contingency plan, VAA/VAG and available satellite data, while harmonizing best practices in coordination with VAAC London. 4.2 Source term is now refined to have the best match between limit delineating concentration at 200µg/m3 (blue level on concentration charts) at T0 and detectable boundaries of the ash cloud form MSG, according to the statement from VASAG (Volcanic Ash Science Advisory Group) on the current detection capability by the satellite channels algorithm such as those used at VAAC Toulouse and assumption on the ash layer thickness.

3 QMS IMPLEMENTATION STATUS 5.1 Meteo-France is qualified ISO9001v Meteo-France has been certified in the frame of the Single European Sky (Dec 2006, renewed in 2010). 5.3 Meteo-France has implemented competency assessment procedures according to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) guidance. VAAC forecasters participated to the pilot phase. 6. FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS 6.1 Meteo-France is continuing the development of a network of dual-polarization advanced LIDARs (RMAN 510) with vertical range over 12 km over the French Metropolitan area. 6.2 Three prototypes have been bought in 2012 and two of them, on the Meteo-France site in Toulouse, provide real time data on aerosols, currently tested by a VAAC forecaster. 6.3 Two new generation LIDARs have been bought in 2013 and four additional ones will be supplied in early Meteo-France s first priority is to collect high precision and detailed data (particle type, particle mean size, etc.) over a large range from the surface up to en-route flight levels, thanks to its advanced LIDAR network and the use of existing sun photometers. Data provided by the dense Meteo-France ceilometers network (more than 100 ceilometers) could be additionally used in a second stage. 7. VAAC BACK-UP 7.1 VAAC London and VAAC Toulouse are mutual backups in the frame of the international airways volcano watch (IAVW), but no back-up test had been performed until A first back-up exercise was run on 3 July. The main aim for this test was to ensure that the suite of products could be issued correctly by both VAACs. 7.3 In the morning, London VAAC took on the VAAC Toulouse commitment, run the NAME dispersion model and published VAG and concentrations charts on behalf of Toulouse, for a simulated eruption of ETNA. 7.4 During the afternoon, Toulouse VAAC was informed by London that a Grimsvötn eruption was on-going and was requested to back-up London VAAC. The Meteo-France dispersion model MOCAGE was run and VAA, VAG, concentrations charts and CSV files, clearly identified as exercise ones, were issued and published on the Toulouse website.

4 Real meteorological conditions were used. The two VAACs experienced some problems, however.. Though VAAC Toulouse succeeded in issuing VAA and VAG on AFS (aeronautical fixed system) and publishing concentration charts and CSV on the website, problems appeared in automatic creation of VAA from VAG and publication of VAA and VAG on the Toulouse VAAC website. This led to a delay of about one hour compared to the normal expected issuance time. The causes were identified, corrective actions undertaken and a new back-up test scheduled for 19 July. 7.6 On 19 July, at 07UTC Toulouse VAAC was informed of London s need for back-up. Toulouse ran MOCAGE model and issued advisories text, graphics and charts at 08UTC on behalf of London for a new simulated Grimsvötn eruption. London took on from Toulouse later on in the morning, dealing with a fake eruption of Santorini. 7.7 While most of the problems identified during the first exercise had been corrected, it was decided to plan a third and last back-up exercise on 3 September, which runs smoothly and satisfyingly. 7.8 According to the Handbook on the International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW) Operational Procedures and Contact List (Doc 9766), Appendix D, London and Toulouse VAAC intend to test back-up arrangements at least annually. 8. IAVW IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES 8.1 While VONAs have been received from designated States Volcano Observatories in Azores and Canarias, it has never been the case as yet for African or Italian volcanoes. 8.2 One of the most active volcanoes of the VAAC Toulouse area of responsibility is Mount Etna. Volcanic activity reports for Etna from INGV (Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia) are currently sent directly to national recipients and they are forwarded by the Milan Met Watch Office to Toulouse VAAC by . They are only available in the Italian language. It would then be advisable that this information be translated intp the English language, and issued in the VONA format in order to make it fully usable by the VAAC and available for a wider community. 8.3 To achieve this goal, a meeting, gathering representatives from the VAAC, the Etna Observatory, the Italian Civil Aviation Regulator, the Italian ANSP, and the Meteorological Watch Office Milan was organized on October 10th/11th. Two Letters of Agreement were drafted during this meeting. 8.4 Toulouse VAAC participated to an ASECNA (Association pour la Sécurité de l Aviation Civile) Workshop on Volcanic Ash in Antananarivo (Madagascar) in order to improve the awareness of Volcano Observatories, Met Watch Offices and Area Control Centres on the IAVW procedures. The workshop was very encouraging. 9. VOLCEX EXERCISES AND LESSONS LEARNT 9.1 On 23 to 24 April 2013, a EUR/NAT volcanic exercise (VOLCEX13/01) was conducted for a simulated eruption from Iceland. London VAAC, on the first day, then Toulouse VAAC, on the second one were in charge of the advisories and concentration charts production.

5 This exercise has been very fruitful: pilots reports have been received by and used by the VAAC forecasters to amend, where necessary, the VA production. Teleconference facilities were of good quality, but highly time-consuming, making necessary the presence of additional staff to allow for a continuous monitoring of the situation by the forecaster. 9.3 One great improvement in the VAACs best practices is expected from the use of Collaborative Decision on Analysis and Forecast (CDAF) conferences between meteorologists - meteorological watch offices (MWOs), National Weather Services (NWSs) and VAACs. Such discussions can improve the VAAC forecaster assessment of the current volcanic ash contamination extent and therefore ameliorate the advisories to be issued. 9.4 Germany and Norway have proposed to participate to this CDAF process by exchanging not only available observations but dispersion modelling outputs. 9.5 It was identified that, even if the general teleconferences hosted by Eurocontrol are the right place to discuss on multidisciplinary operational responses to a VA hazard, they are not the right place to hold such meteorological discussions, which must take place ahead of the general conferences. 9.6 Another exercise was run in October (23 to 24) for a simulated eruption of Mount Furnas in the Azores. The first day was a bi-lateral exercise between France and Portugal (mainly VAAC Toulouse and ACC Santa Maria). The second day was a EUR/NAT volcanic exercise (VOLCEX 13/02). 9.7 One of the exercise objectives was to test a Special AIREPs communication channel from pilots to ACC, ACC to MWO then MWO to VAAC. Only one AIREP was received at VAAC Toulouse, and not from a MWO. The objective will have to be reiterated for a next exercise. 10. ACTION BY THE IAVWOPSG 10.1 The IAVWOPSG is invited to note the information contained in this paper END