Satellite Data For Applications: Aviation/Volcanic Ash. Richard Eckman NASA 27 May 2013

Transcription

1 Satellite Data For Applications: Aviation/Volcanic Ash Richard Eckman NASA 27 May 2013

2 Background Following the unprecedented disruption to aviation by the recent eruptions of Eyjafjallajökull and Grímsvötn (Iceland), Cordon-Caulle (Chile) and Merapi (Indonesia), there have been many workshops, meetings and negotiations resulting in: Creation of the ICAO International Volcanic Ash Task Force (IVATF) On-going work of the ICAO International Airways Volcano Watch Operations Group (IAVWOPSG) Strong interactions with regulators, airlines, Volcanic Ash Advisory Centres (VAACs) and other aviation stakeholders Recent meetings in: ESA/EUMETSAT volcanic ash and aviation user workshop, Dublin, 4-6 March 2013 WMO Volcanic Ash Science Workshop, Citeko (West Java), Indonesia, week of 11 March

3 Current Activities The CEOS Atmospheric Composition Constellation (ACC) has been coordinating CEOS member agency activities for several years. Some examples, discussed at the April 2013 CEOS ACC meeting in Darmstadt (presentations available at EUMETSAT had been making a volcanic ash product operationally available, using the MSG-SEVIRI satellite information. A volcanic ash retrieval algorithm was developed through a scientific collaboration with Dr. Fred Prata (NILU). The product is operationally available since May Several areas of improvement are identified and will be worked on in the future (initial ash detection, algorithm change to a full optimal estimation type of approach) The SEVIRI Volcanic Ash Product is available in netcdf format (with ash effective radius, mass loading, height (incl. quality) per pixel) 96 times per day. In case of a significant event (upon request from the London VAAC), the following products will be available: CAP (Common Alert Protocol) format. Text files, images (PNG format). No full validation of the operational product has been done yet. 3

4 Current Activities EUMETSAT (continued) For the future, SEVIRI ash detection must address the problem that reliable ash detection is still a problem. Improvements and tests are ongoing. There is collaboration with the UK Met Office (Peter Francis) and Fred Prata. There are plans to investigate all volcanic eruptions in the Meteosat FOV and use two Meteosats for stereo height assignment. There are also plans for including the detection of SO2. Optimal estimation approach being investigated (which is promising, especially in the case of ash above lower clouds). The Meteosat Third Generation (MTG) will include a sounding satellite, carrying an Infrared Sounder. Volcanic ash products from the sounder will be similar to what is currently available for, e.g., IASI. The Imager satellite will be launched in Dec 2018 (similar to MSG, improved spatial/temporal resolution, more shortwave channels). A Sounding satellite will be launched 2 years later. 4

5 Metop Aerosol Product Example Global: Aerosol optical depth (GOME) Volcanic ash event around Iceland: preliminary 23 May 2011 Slide: 5 Orange: Strong ash test positive, cloud tests ignored Blue: cloud fraction < 0.3, AOD retrieved White: no retrieval or cloud fraction > 0.3 and negative ash test Aerosol optical depth (GOME) Slide: 5 19 April 2013

6 Current Activities NASA s Applied Sciences Program Disaster Management element supports the production of near real time volcanic SO 2 and ash data and their integration in aviation decision support systems, e.g., for VAACs. The NASA A-train formation of polar satellites provide multiple instruments capable of observing volcanic clouds gases and aerosols: Aqua/MODIS for Vis + Thermal IR (TIR), Aura/OMI for SO 2 + aerosol index (dust, ash), and CALIPSO/CALIOP lidar for ash vertical profile. Unique discrimination of Volcanic clouds is possible ONLY with UV or TIR measurements. The NASA project continues collaboration with NOAA and other partner organizations to fully utilize and disseminate NASA SO 2 and ash volcanic data to further improve their decision support system (DSS) for early warning. The products will be enhanced with Aqua/AIRS data and continued using new SO 2 and ash data from the next generation operational NPP/JPSS sensors. The value of increased observational frequency of polar orbit swath overlaps together with reduced satellite data latency times to 20 minutes by utilizing direct broadcast data received at ground stations in Finland and Alaska is being demonstrated. Given a new emphasis on quantitative ash mass forecasts for air traffic management (ATM) we propose utilizing satellite data assimilation techniques in a NASA global model to demonstrate improved medium range forecasts of volcanic cloud location and vertical extent. 6

7 OMI Very Fast Delivery (VFD) service and plan for two stations: FMI, NASA and UAF/GINA OMI/Aura Direct Broadcast from NASA Aura satellite Ozone Image: UAF/GINA Receiving stations in Sodankylä (FMI) and Fairbanks (UAF/GINA) FTP from Fairbanks to FMI OMI VFD Processing in Sodankylä Cloud fraction SO 2 WWW and FTP services. Available within 20 min after data reception. UV Aerosol Index: Ash, dust or smoke

8 Current Activities ESA Activities VAST ( a three-year project lead by NILU (F. Prata) SACS2 ( an 18-month project lead by BIRA/IASB (N. Theys) SMASH based on the EU European Volcano Space Services (EVOSS) Project ( an 18-month project lead by CGS (L. Tampellini) The goals of these projects are to: Enhance the usage of EO satellite data for volcanic ash monitoring, Update existing user requirements, provide improved satellite based volcanic emission information based on, e.g., SEVIRI, AATSR, MODIS, GOME2, IASI, OMI, AIRS measurements, Provide improved eruption source information, establish an operational LIDAR network in Ireland (national co-funding), Establish a database for historic eruptions (satellite, ground-based, airborne, modeling data), Develop of an operational demonstration volcanic ash forecasting service (open source code operated at ZAMG) that could be implemented at VAACs or elsewhere, Define a best future end-to-end volcanic ash monitoring system An ESA/EUMETSAT volcanic ash and aviation user workshop was held in Dublin on March 4-6, 2013, with ~50 participants from the research, forecasting, industry, and regulatory communities. Details may be found at 8

9 Current Activities Dublin Workshop (continued) Some key points raised included consideration of an Eyjafjoll like eruption tomorrow. Would the situation today different as compared to the one in 2010? With respect to user requirements, what has changed during the last 3 years? Interaction between observations and models was considered and priorities for future actions were assessed (EU - Horizon 2020) There is extensive interaction and complementarity among the three projects: All three projects have the same Technical Officer from ESA Exchange of expertise and results: The AIRS algorithm of F. Prata (VAST) has been implemented recently into the SACS web-based warning system Different consortia include different satellite retrieval experts (e.g. SEVIRI - NILU, AATSR FMI, IASI ULB, MODIS - INGV) and background knowledge There are complementary approaches being developed on the derivation of improved eruption source information All three projects will provide input data to a volcanic eruption database (e.g. SMASH: INGV Etna ground-based data) 9

10 Current Activities ESA Activities (continued) SACS and NILU satellite products will feed into an operational demonstration volcanic ash forecasting service The SMASH consortium will define a best future end-to-end volcanic ash monitoring system in Europe 10

11 Support to Aviation Control Service CEOS ACC-9 MEETING Page 11 ESA UNCLASSIFIED For Official Use

12 Support to Aviation Control Service Snapshot of the future SACS NRT webpage CEOS ACC-9 MEETING Page 12 ESA UNCLASSIFIED For Official Use

13 Future Prospects NASA SAGE III/ISS satellite will be launched in early 2015 and attached to the International Space Station. In addition to its principal role of maintaining the long term measurements of atmospheric ozone and aerosols, work is being done to assess its potential to monitor volcanic aerosol evolution in near real time using its research limb scattering mode Importance of maintaining a strong and reliable detection capability both in GEO and LEO is noted. Active (lidar or radar) sensors, such as CALIOP on CALIPSO, while highly useful in principle, would have to be available at much denser time intervals to have a reliable operational impact It can be anticipated that future volcanic ash forecasting and warning services will increasingly rely on a fully integrated NWP modeling environment with proper variational analysis, using an integrated observing system capable of using all relevant sensors and techniques. This would provide a reliable initial field of volcanic ash loading independent of the (elusive) knowledge of the detailed Mass Eruption Rate and other eruption characteristics. In such an environment, both space-based, ground-based and airborne remote sensing together with in-situ measurements will contribute to a better knowledge of the aviation hazard of volcanic ash. 13