Oceanic Weather Product Development Team

Transcription

1 Oceanic Weather Product Development Team Cathy Kessinger, Ted Tsui, Paul Herzegh, Earle Williams, Gary Blackburn, Gary Ellrod ASAP Science Review April NASA ASAP Science Meeting, Boulder, Colorado Photo by Scott Miller, Seattle Times Mt. Saint Helens 8 March 2005

2 Mt. Saint Helens 8 March 2005 Photos by KIRO Tv Seattle

3 A little history NASA AvSP/AWRP Oceanic Convective Nowcasting Demonstration (OCND) Project Purpose: demonstrate delivery of weather information in graphical form into the cockpit (dates uncertain) Workshops, user interactions and feedback to determine needs AWRP Oceanic Weather PDT formed 2001 OCND experience was basis Technology transfer from CONUS PDTs to Oceanic Weather Not an easy task due to limited data availability

4 Scientific Areas Volcanic Ash Paul Herzegh Improved Inflight Winds Ted Tsui Weather data uplinked to the cockpit Gary Blackburn Turbulence (CAT and CIT) Bob Sharman Convection Diagnosis and Nowcasting Cathy Kessinger Icing (FIP and CIP) Marcia Politovich Domains: Pacific North Pacific Gulf of Mexico North Atlantic - later

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6 Uplink to the Cockpit

7 Cockpit Display of Cloud Top Height (CTOP) Product UAL Cloud Top Height Product (feet) CTOP shown from satellite view with aircraft position overlaid Experimental As the aircraft flies toward Australia (purple Future line), 30kft convective Position cells will be 40kft encountered Uplinking CTOP to the cockpit Current allows the same information to Position be shown relative to the aircraft s Color Display position Two cockpit display options are shown: color graphics and ASCII ASCII is done now Color graphics are in the future ASCII Display (same area as color display, size changes) The current a/c position shown by red marker, future position by yellow marker Pilot receives a heads up for potentially hazardous weather that is approaching Other products could be uplinked Convective Diagnosis, Turbulence, Volcanic Ash

8 Volcanic Ash Aviation Hazard

9 Avionics Damage Heavy deposits of resolidified ash on nozzle guide, Rolls-Royce RB211 (BA 747)

10 Damage at the Ground

11 Definition of the Hazard Although large eruptions are a relatively rare occurrence, could have catastrophic results , 102 encounters, damages >$250 million , 7 cases w/ temporary engine failure miles from source (up to 1800 miles) Duration: 2-13 minutes No aircraft crashes due to volcanic ash 747 aircraft type most often involved Guffanti et al, 2004: Reducing encounters of aircraft with volcanic ash clouds, 2 nd Int l Conf on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety.

12 North Pacific North Pacific is particularly vulnerable (AK, Kamchatka, Kurile Islands) 100 historically active volcanoes Average 4-5 eruptions/ year (tend to be explosive) Volcanic ash in air routes and above 30Kft on average 4-5 days/year Additional days/year, ash is close enough to routes to be of concern 4 days/yr, ~20,000 passengers and millions of dollars of air cargo can be placed at risk to life and property Global extrapolation Ash expected at flight levels days/year Ash is a concern days/year. Miller, T., 2004: Explosive volcanic eruptions across the heavily traveled north Pacific air routes; Frequency, duration and impact on aviation, 2 nd Int l Conf on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety.

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14 Jet contrails off Kamchatka Murray, T., 2004: The Alaska Volcano Observatory; Fifteen years of working to mitigate the risk to aviation from volcanic ash in the North Pacific, 2nd Int l Conf on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety.

15 Justification for Need for 5-Minute Warning Time (Courtesy: Len Salinas, United Airlines) Mt. St. Helens plume rose at 5000ft/min. Aircraft fly 500mph or 6-8 miles/min

16 Volcanic Ash Advisory Centers (VAAC) Once eruption is reported (pirep, Volcano Obs., satellite), VAACs issue advisory Meteorological Watch Offices issue VA SIGMET AAWU, AWC, Guam, Hawaii

17 FLOW OF INFORMATION ASH EVENT REPORTED TO VAAC VAAC RECEIVES REPORT AND DISTRIBUTES TO MWO AND TO AIRLINES Ash to FL230 VAAS / SIGMETS RECEIVED, INFORMATION IS DISTRIBUTED TO DISPATCH AND TO CREWS INFORMATION RECEIVED BY FLIGHT DISPATCH -- SENT TO ACTIVE FLIGHTS OR USED FOR FLIGHT PLANNING INFORMATION RECEIVED BY PILOTS AND USED IN PLANNING STAGES Salinas and Watt, 2004: Volcanic Ash, Impact on aviation safety, 2nd Int l Conf on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety.

18 Volcanic Ash Coordination Tool (VACT) Forecast Systems Lab development Purpose: Enable Anchorage ATCC CWSU, AAWU/VAAC and Alaska Volcano Obs to view identical data and collaborate in real-time to generate timecritical ash forecasts

19 Volcanic Ash Coordination Tool (VACT) Data ingest geostationary and polar satellites, numerical models Data manipulation, i.e., channel differencing Dispersion models Common situational display among 3 agencies Chat room facility allows easy discussion and sharing of images/information Offline mode while preparing information Demonstration in May 2005 OW PDT will have access to VACT data servers and development environment, summer 2005

20 Seismic Information from Alaska Volcano Observatory

21 Oceanic Weather Plans Goal: Provide detection/warning/forecast capability of volcanic ash and gas plumes to aviation community Methodology Glean existing techniques for satellite remote detection ASAP collaboration DoD satellite information, unclassified Geostationary satellite primary instrument Polar orbiters provide auxiliary information Seismic information Dispersion models Combine with an expert system to produce best detection of ash/gas plume locations Implement in VACT for Anchorage first; Washington later Forecast ash location Dispersion models Object tracking

22 NOAA/NESDIS Volcanic Ash Algorithm 4 November 2002 Reventador, Ecuador GOES Visible plus Volcanic Ash 1645 UTC GOES Infrared plus Volcanic Ash 1645 UTC Implemented at NCAR Techniques to improve quality needed (filtering)

23 Tracking Volcanic Ash Clouds 4 November UTC Algorithm output at 30 min intervals Ash cloud is extrapolated Purple = current position Orange = 60 minute extrapolated position Pacific Ocean Colombia Volcano Ecuador Peru

24 Ongoing Mt. Etna Eruption: 10/30/02 SeaWIFS True Color NRL Dust Enhancement

25 The next step Once expert system is running within VACT, facilitate getting information to cockpit Rare event, so must target only aircraft in harm s way Access data base of current flight positions and speed/direction of travel Advisory/SIGMET must come from proper agency When eruption is detected and Advisory/SIGMET is ready for dissemination, then Select specific aircraft that may intercept the ash cloud Send graphical information directly to the aircraft via uplink Human first, automation later Do this within 5 minutes

26 FLOW OF INFORMATION ASH EVENT REPORTED TO VAAC VAAC RECEIVES REPORT AND DISTRIBUTES TO MWO AND TO AIRLINES Ash to FL230 VAAS / SIGMETS RECEIVED, INFORMATION IS DISTRIBUTED TO DISPATCH AND TO CREWS INFORMATION RECEIVED BY FLIGHT DISPATCH -- SENT TO ACTIVE FLIGHTS OR USED FOR FLIGHT PLANNING INFORMATION RECEIVED BY PILOTS AND USED IN PLANNING STAGES Salinas and Watt, 2004: Volcanic Ash, Impact on aviation safety, 2nd Int l Conf on Volcanic Ash and Aviation Safety. Smart Uplink

27 Unsolved Mysteries When is the ash cloud so diffuse that it is no longer a hazard?