Applications of GIS and Urban Modelling for Environmental Policy. Overview

Transcription

1 Decision Support Tools for Managing Urban Environment in Ireland Applications of GIS and Urban Modelling for Environmental Policy Sheila Convery, HarutyunShahumyan Overview The MOLAND Model Waste water treatment t tplant catchment th tarea study Transport scenarios Zoning scenarios Conclusions 1

2 6/10/2009 MICRO MODEL Local Level (426,500 cells) Land use map at time T MACRO MODEL Global and Regional Level Land use map at time T+1 Neighbourhood Rules (9 counties in Greater Dublin Region) Population and Employment Growth Time step: 1 year Transport Accessibility Zones Socio Economic Information Suitability Zoning Land Use Transition in MOLAND Model Sample MOLAND Simulation Output 2

3 Why is MOLAND Useful? A range of what if scenarios can be explored A variety of spatial planning policies can be assessed The environmental impacts of different land use policies can be quantified Provide robust framework for comparing, discussing and visualising a variety of spatial planning policies Study Area Between 1996 and 2006 Ireland s population growth was five times the European average of 3.25% (EPA, 2008) The Greater Dublin Region experienced the biggest growth nationally with an increase of 8.3% between 2002 and 2006 (CSO, 2007) GDR Population Growth ( ) Greater Dublin Region

4 GREATER DUBLIN REGION WASTE WATER CASE STUDY Current and Planned Waste Water Treatment Capacity Current (2009) Planned (2020) Urban Environment Project 4

5 Population Growth Scenarios The population projections used in our study was based on the Central Statistics Office Regional Population Projections (CSO, 2008). Scenario 1. Low Growth in population over 20 years ( 15% on Scenario 2) Scenario 2. Medium Growth in population over 20 years (CSO, 2008) Scenario 3. High Growth in population over 20 years (+15% on Scenario 2) Population GDR actual 2006 population and projected 2026 population for the 3 scenarios Actual 2006 Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Sparse Dense Residential Area Development Difference Between Scenarios Scenario 1: Low growth Scenario 2: Medium growth Scenario 3: High growth Residential areas existing in 2000 Residential areas developed from 2000 to

6 Wicklow catchment area in Wicklow 2006 actual map 2026 Scenario Scenario Scenario 3 Residential area development in Wicklow catchment area (W16) in Wicklow Scenario 1: Low growth Scenario 2: Medium growth Scenario 3: High growth Residential areas existing in 2000 Residential areas developed from 2000 to 2026 Catchment boundaries County boundaries 6

7 Donabate catchment area in Fingal 2006 actual map 2026 Scenario Scenario Scenario 3 Residential area development in Donabate catchment area (currently W4, W7A from 2018) in Fingal Scenario 1: Low growth Scenario 2: Medium growth Scenario 3: High growth Residential areas existing in 2000 Residential areas developed from 2000 to 2026 Catchment boundaries County boundaries 7

8 Residential Area and Planned Increased Plant Capacity Summary MOLAND may be usefully applied in exploring the spatial distribution of land uses under a range of population scenarios. This allows for the proposed increase in waste water treatment capacity for the region to be evaluated in a spatial context under three spatially explicit scenarios of population expansion in the region. 8

9 TRANSPORT NETWORK STUDY Transport Network Urban Environment Project 9

10 An Orbital route linking Drogheda, Navan and Naas The impacts on development patterns: a) Without zoning for commercial development at interchanges b) With zoning for commercial development at interchanges Orbital Route Scenario Orbital route added in 2016 Kilcock Maynooth 10

11 Urban Area Development Near Kilcock and Maynooth towns in Kildare County Orbital development without commercial zoning Orbital development with commercial zoning Number of cells Analysing development within a 2km radius of the route Development within 2km buffer No Orbital Orbital No zoning Orbital w ith zoning

12 Summary Orbital route in do minimum scenario caused significant changes in development patterns Orbital route with zoning for commercial development showed even greater impact on development within the transport corridor Urban Environment Project Transport 21 Scenario Transport 21 is the capital investment framework through which the transport system in Ireland will be developed, over the period 2006 to Projects: 7 LUAS projects and 2 Metro lines are being developed upgrade of the Intercity rail network and expanded commuter rail services in Dublin, Cork and Galway completion of the 5 major inter urban roads enhancing bus system capacity by 60% improving safety and security at the regional airports 12

13 Results Employment and Population Outputs in 2026 Total Employment with and without Transport Louth Meath Dublin Kildare Wicklow Total Population with and without Transport 21 With T21 Without T21 With T21 Without T Louth Meath Dublin Kildare Wicklow Summary With Transport 21 fully implemented, we see consolidation of Co. Dublin s population and employment and lower growth in the surrounding counties. With Transport 21 not implemented we see greater growth in the surrounding counties and less growth in Dublin in both population and employment figures. Urban Environment Project 13

14 ZONING STUDY MOLAND Default Zoning (NHAs, SPAs and SACs) 14

15 Green Infrastructure Zoning Effect of Restricted Development Zoning No special restrictions Scenario 2: 1: Aggressive Moderate zoning 15

16 Conclusion The model has powerful potential in areas such as: Investigating gchanges in land use Analysing route impacts on development Examining Transport infrastructure developments Analysing green zoning corridors MOLAND as a spatial decision support system goes some way to provide decision makers in the area of spatial planning and infrastructure development with a tool that overcomes some of the obstacles encountered in the formulation of regional development policies. Thank You! The Urban Environment Project is generously sponsored by the Irish Environmental Protection Agency as part of the ERTDI programme which is funded through the National Development Plan CD U1 M1 Decision support tools for managing urban environment in Ireland All work undertaken on the MOLAND model, for the Greater Dublin Region is subject to the license conditions of the software developers, Research Institute Knowledge Systems b.v. (RIKS b.v.) and the data set owners, DG JRC under license no. JRC.BWL The authors would like to thank the Dublin and Mid East Regional Authorities, in particular Deirdre Scully and Walter Foley for their cooperation in providing data and the context for the waste water facility case study. We would also like to acknowledge the assistance of Prof. Roger White, Dr. Brendan Williams and the Urban Environment Project team. 16