Po P pulat pula ion Change Chang and Urban Expansion Cormac Walsh W

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1 Population Change and Urban Expansion Cormac Walsh

2 Introduction This first thematic chapter examines the spatial ilpatterns of urban expansion and population change over the period. The Dublin city region experienced very rapid growth over the Celtic Tiger period. This expansion in economic activity, lb labour force and resident population lti was accompanied by aboom in the construction ti industry, leading to unprecedented levels of residential and commercial development (Williams et al 2007, Attuyer et al 2009). The supply of housing struggled to keep pace with demand within the metropolitan area of Dublin, leading to significant dispersal of residential development to rural hinterland areas of the city region. Spatial planning policy at the national and regional scales has sought toconcentrate development within the Metropolitan Area of the Dublin and the larger urban centres in the surrounding counties. The dynamics of urban development over the period have led to an increased dispersal of residential development, however, leading to unsustainable patterns of car dependent commuting and difficulties in the provision of essential infrastructure and services.

3 Population Density 2006 The total population p of the UEP study region in 2006 was just over 1,770,000. An increase of more than 330,000 or 23% occurred between 1991 and As evident from Maps 2.1 and 2.2 there is considerable geographical variation in the distribution of population across the study area with population densities in 2006 ranging from 3 persons per square kilometre (the Wicklow Mountains) to 19,500 persons/km 2 (parts of Dublin city centre). Map 2.1 Population Density, 2006

4 Percentage Population Change from 1991 to 2006 The ggeography g p y of p population p change over the period 1991 to 2006 (Maps 2.2 and 2.3) indicates the differential influence of processes of natural increase and decline, residential mobility and migration at the regional and local scales. A sharp contrast is evident between areas of population l d l decline in the h inner suburbs and parts of rural Meath, Kildare and L th and Louth d areas off high hi h increase in Southeast Meath, Northeast Kildare and Fingal. Map 2.2 Percentage Population Change:

5 Absolute Population Change between1991and 2006 Areas of population p decline include older suburban areas where processes of population aging have resulted in a high proportion of empty nest households as well as less accessible rural areas that have experienced a combination of population aging and net out migration (Walsh, 2008). Areas of significant increase within the region include Navan and Rt Ratoathin Meath, Blbi Balbriggan, Swords and Blanchardstown in Fingal and Lucan in South County Dublin. Map 2.3 Absolute Population Change:

6 Urban Expansion between 1990 and 2006 Artificial surfaces,, indicatingg urban land uses covered just over eight hundred square kilometres or almost 10% of the total land area of the UEP study region in In 1990 artificial surfaces covered 541 km2 or 6.7% of the total land area. This almost 150% increase in urbanised l d landcover over a 16 year period indicates the scale of recent transformations in D bli urban Dublin s b and d peri urban i b landscapes (McInerney and Walsh, 2009). Map 2.4 Urban Expansion:

7 Residential Development between 1990 and 2006 Residential landcover accounted for just over half of all artificial surfaces in By 2006 the area of land occupied by residential functions had increased by 41%, while its share of all artificial surfaces declined marginally. The vast majority of residential areas were classified as Residential Discontinuous Urban Fabric or Residential Sparse Discontinuous Urban Fabric in both 1990 and In contrast Residential Continuous Urban Fabric Fabric accounted for less than 1.5% across the time period. Map 2.5 Residential Development:

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