FHWA Peer Exchange Meeting on Transportation Systems Management during Inclement Weather
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1 Travel Demand Modeling & Simulation at GBNRTC Matt Grabau Kimberly Smith Mike Davis Why Model? Travel modeling is a tool for transportation planners and policy makers, to observe impacts of a transportation project before it is built. Impacts: Changes in existing / future traffic volume Observing shifts in traffic patterns Impacts on the environment We can model base-year and future-year conditions We can use what we learn from our model to better shape our plans to improve transportation within the region. Presentation 01 1 Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
2 Models Used at GBNRTC 4-Step Regional TDM Model Meso/Micro Simulation Model Activity-Based Model GBNRTC s Regional Travel Demand Model Perform regional and corridor-level analysis for various transportation projects. Obtain regional traffic forecasts (for short-term term and long-term) Measure impacts to base year conditions How will traffic look in 5 years, 10 years, 30 years? Long Range Plan (LRP) 20-year blueprint that addresses transportation needs for the region Transportation Improvement Program Implements the first 5 years of the LRP using capital funds Means of prioritizing LRP projects with the funds available Air Quality Emissions Analysis Satisfy EPA guidelines, monitor NOx and VOC Presentation 01 2 Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
3 GBNRTC s jurisdiction is divided into 554 TAZs The shape and size of a TAZ is determined by several factors Census block boundaries Municipal boundaries Follow geometry of major / minor arterials Follow geometry of natural boundaries Population density (Population should be distributed evenly among TAZs. Areas of greater density will have smaller TAZs) U.S. Census block data is aggregated into TAZ boundaries, including: Population Number of households Median household income Employment by industry School enrollment Other special uses Shopping malls, Universities, Airports TDM Road Network Our model network includes all federal-aid aid roads within the GBNRTC jurisdiction and includes crossings into Canada. Presentation 01 3 Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
4 Public Transit Network Public transit network represents NFTA s current route structure. Other Required Input Household Travel Survey GBNRTC s last survey was completed in 2002 TDM needs to understand d where trips need to go based on actual travel patterns develops household-level level cross-classification classification model to estimate trips between zones. Traffic Counts Transit ridership data Boarding and alighting per stop / station Presentation 01 4 Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
5 Useful outputs from TDM Traffic volumes Average Daily Traffic (ADT) Peak Hour / Peak Period Volumes Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Vehicle Hours Traveled (VHT) Changes in travel patterns between scenarios Select Link Analysis Shortest Path Analysis Useful Outputs from TDM Modeled Link Volumes Presentation 01 5 Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
6 Useful Outputs from TDM Useful Outputs from TDM Presentation 01 6 Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
7 Cleveland Drive Ramp Study Alternative 2 Both Ramps Closed Cleveland Drive Ramp Study Alternative 4 SB On Ramp Closed Presentation 01 7 Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
8 UB 2020 UB 2020 Impact on network due to UB s investment t in region Depicting increase in ADT Presentation 01 8 Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
9 UB 2020 Impact to ADT due to UB s investment in region Area ideal for Meso Network, further network refinements and microsimulation TRANSIMS Presentation 01 9 Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
10 South Grand Island Toll Plaza No Delay Condition (During typical PM time period) Changes in Daily Flows Lewiston/Queenston Bridge WB Trips (2%) Porter Rd -360 Trips (2%) Niagara Falls Blvd -227 Trips (1%) River Rd -530 Trips (3%) South Grand Island Tolls NB Trips (3%) Peace Bridge WB -219 Trips (1%) Presentation Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
11 Accelerated Growth in Truck Traffic Change in Truck Flow Presentation Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
12 Change in Auto Flow Presentation Buffalo, NY March 15, 2012
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