APPENDIX IV MODELLING

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1 APPENDIX IV MODELLING

2 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling i TABLE OF CONTENTS Page 1.0 INTRODUCTION OBJECTIVE URBAN TRANSPORTATION MODELLING SYSTEM TRANSCAD MODELLING SOFTWARE DATA COLLECTION Review of Background Documents Collection of Traffic Data Road Network Data Kingston 2002 Travel Survey TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE SYSTEM Zone System Development Connection of the TAZs to the Road Network TRIP GENERATION TRIP DISTRIBUTION TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND MODEL CALIBRATION Screen Line Analysis Calibration FUTURE CONDITIONS Future Base Population and Employment Projections Assignment of 2026 Future Traffic Volumes APPLICATION OF THE MODEL LIST OF TABLES Table 1 P.M. Peak Period Trip Generation... 6 Table 2 Adjustments for External and Through Trips for the P.M. Peak Hour... 9 Table 3 Model Calibration Results for the 2001 P.M. Peak Hour by Screen Line Table P.M. Peak Period Trip Generation Table 5 Adjustments for External and Through Trips for the P.M. Peak Hour Table 6 Future Base Volumes and Transportation Deficiencies DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

3 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling ii TABLE OF CONTENTS (Continued) Page LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1 Study Area Traffic Analysis Zones... 4 Figure 2 Sample of Traffic Analysis Zones with Centroid Connectors... 5 Figure 3 Screen Lines... 8 LIST OF APPENDICES Attachment 1 Attachment 2 Attachment 3 Attachment 4 Attachment Zonal Population and Employment Data 2001 Trip Generation 2001 P.M. Peak Hour Auto Driver Origin-Destination Matrix 2026 Future Base Trip Generation Screen Line Analysis Summary M:\PROJECTS\DRAFT\01\019040\Deliverables\Draft Final Report - July 2004\Appendices\Appendix 4 - Modelling\Appendix 4 - Modelling.doc DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

4 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling INTRODUCTION The purpose of the City of Kingston Transportation Master Plan was to develop a comprehensive multi-modal transportation plan that will address the City s transportation needs through to approximately The development of such a plan requires the evaluations of alternative images of the future and selection of the most highly valued feasible alternative. The prediction of future travel demand over the City s transportation network is critical to the process. Travel demand forecasting refers to the process of estimating future travel demands and assigning these to an existing or future transportation network using a transportation demand model. The model consists of a set of mathematical relationships that can be used to predict future traffic volumes and related congestion given alternative land use and transportation system scenarios. Thus, developing travel demand forecasts is an important component of determining the impacts of future developments and constraints of the transportation network. Sound predictions of future travel demands requires that the model represents as accurately as possible the real world travel and route choice behaviour. This appendix documents the development of a travel demand model for the City of Kingston. 2.0 OBJECTIVE One of the key objectives of the study was to develop a travel demand model that can be used to predict future travel demands given proposed land use scenarios and assess the transportation needs. The model is focused on predicting the P.M. peak hour automobile trips over the network. This was noted to be the period during which the highest demands are placed on the transportation network. This model would also be available to the City on an on-going basis after completion of the study for future analysis. 3.0 URBAN TRANSPORTATION MODELLING SYSTEM The travel demand model developed is consistent with the Urban Transportation Modelling System (UTMS). UTMS models are aggregate models. These models typically estimate travel demand based on the average attributes of different geographic zones within the municipality. These models do not attempt to model individual travel behaviour (i.e. they do not estimate the individual decision making process). UTMS models estimate travel throughout the transportation network based on predictions of trips made between pairs of zone origins and destinations for a given time period. The models are commonly comprised of four stages of analysis: DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

5 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling 2 trip generation - the prediction of trips produced and attracted to each zone; trip distribution - the prediction of origin-destination flows, the linking of trip ends predicted by trip generation; mode split - the estimation of percentages of trip flows made by each transportation mode in the model; and trip assignment - the allocation of trips to routes in the transportation network. The four stages represent a sequential decision structure. 4.0 TRANSCAD MODELLING SOFTWARE TransCAD is a geographic information system designed specifically for the planning, managing, and analyzing of transportation systems. The software provides a set of tools for travel demand modelling as well as capabilities for geographic database management, presentation graphics and transportation models. The software provides tools which can be used in all phases of the model development process mode split, trip generation, trip distribution, and trip assignment. The City of Kingston purchased the software through the study. The travel demand model was developed using the software. 5.0 DATA COLLECTION A review of pertinent background materials was conducted. Traffic and road network data were collected, and a travel survey of Study Area residents was undertaken. 5.1 Review of Background Documents A wide selection of reports and background documents were obtained from the City. These served as key sources of background information. The documents obtained included: Class environmental assessments for the Elliot Avenue/Counter Street Realignment, Cumming Cockburn Limited (1998); Highway 401, West of County Road 38 to Highway 15, Environmental Study Report, Delcan (2001); The Former City of Kingston Official Plan; The Former Kingston Township Official Plan (November, 6, 1997); The Former Pittsburgh Township Official Plan; The Rideau Community Area Transportation Planning Study, TSH (Sept 1991); The Third Crossing Study Transportation Study Bridge Crossing, TSH (June 1992); and others. DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

6 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling Collection of Traffic Data Traffic volume data were obtained from the City of Kingston, enumerating traffic conditions throughout the City for the years leading up to the study, 2001, and We had supplemented these data by commissioning turning movement counts and other counts, at strategic locations throughout the City, as part of this study. Additional traffic data were also obtained from the Ontario Ministry of Transportation. 5.3 Road Network Data Digital representations of the Study Area road network were obtained from the City of Kingston, and Loyalist Township. This information was used to build the road network used for the travel demand model. The information was reviewed in detail to confirm the validity of the network, including roadway connections. The model required the network contain information regarding network characteristics such as speed, number of lanes, type of roadway (freeway, arterial, local, etc.), and per lane capacity. The required information was obtained from the City, and the data was incorporated into the road network representation. 5.4 Kingston 2002 Travel Survey A Comprehensive travel survey was undertaken of City residents. The survey provided vital information regarding the existing travel patterns in the City. The survey was consistent with the methods used as part of the Transportation Tomorrow Surveys of the Greater Toronto Area, conducted by the Joint Program in Transportation at the University of Toronto. The undertaking of the travel survey is documented in Appendix III of the Master Plan Document. 6.0 TRAFFIC ANALYSIS ZONE SYSTEM The model predicts trips over the transportation network based on attributes of traffic analysis zones (TAZs). Zonal attributes used in trip generation include population and employment. A key component of the model development process was the development of the zone system to cover the Study Area. 6.1 Zone System Development A system of traffic analysis zones was developed. The zones developed were consistent with the Canada Census tracts and enumeration area. This enabled the use of population and employment data collected as part of the 2001 Canada Census. The zones were also developed in consideration of the existing transportation network, land use patterns, and barriers to travel (e.g. rivers, railway tracks, highways). Figure 1 illustrates the TAZs developed for the study. A total of 91 zones make up the Study Area, with an additional 3 zones representing external areas to the north, east, and west of the study area. DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

7 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling 4 Figure 1 Study Area Traffic Analysis Zones DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

8 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling Connection of the TAZs to the Road Network In building the model, it was necessary to connect the traffic analysis zones to the road network. This was accomplished by connecting the centroid of each TAZ to one or more network links. Centroids are special nodes in the transportation network that represent the centers of gravity for the transportation analysis zones. Trips originating from a zone or destined to a zone are assumed to originate from or be destined to the centroid of the zone in question. Centroid connectors are not real physical links, but instead are a simplified representation of the local road network. It should be noted that a special property of centriod connector links is that paths between an origin and destination travel over one centroid connector at the beginning and end of the trip respectively, but never use centroid connectors in any other way. Trips originating from or destined to zones beyond the study area boundary are assumed to originate from or be destined to External Cordon Stations. These cordon stations are simply nodes in the transportation network where principal external routes connect to study area transportation network. Figure 2 illustrates a portion of the City s downtown, including TAZs and centroid connectors to the transportation network. Figure 2 Sample of Traffic Analysis Zones with Centroid Connectors DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

9 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling TRIP GENERATION Trip generation is the first step in the development of the travel demand model. The aim of this process is to predict the total number of trips produced and attracted to each traffic zone within the study area (i.e. how many trips originate from and are destined to each traffic zone). The model predicts the PM peak period trips over the transportation network. These are then converted to represent the PM peak hour by applying a conversion factor. Trip generation makes use of population data obtained from the 2001 Canada Census and employment data derived from the travel survey. The zonal population and employment numbers are presented in Attachment 1. A regression analysis was undertaken to determine the 3-hour P.M. peak period zonal productions and attractions based on population and employment data. Trip generation relationships were developed by trip purpose and mode. Relationships were developed for work all-mode trips, as well as work automobile trips, and non-work automobile trips. Non-work automobile trips were adjusted by a factor of 1.25 to account for the under-reporting of discretionary travel. An auto occupancy factor of 1.24 was applied to convert auto person trips to auto driver trips. Details of the trip generation are presented in Attachment 2. In applying the trip generation procedure trip productions and attractions were determined separately. This results in a minor discrepancy between productions and attractions. The trips were then balanced so that the total number of trip productions and attractions are equal. Table 1 summarizes the trips generated for the City. Table 1 P.M. Peak Period Trip Generation Description Trips Work Trips All Modes 31,784 Work Trips Automobile Mode 21,911 Non Work Trips Automobile Mode 46,767 Total Automobile Trips 68,677 By generating automobile trips separately, the trip generation exercise took care of the trip generation and mode split activities of the modelling process. 8.0 TRIP DISTRIBUTION Trip distribution activities aim to predict origin-destination flows of travel (i.e. the linking of trip ends predicted by trip generation). The geographical distribution of trips through the study area was determined through the application of a gravity model of trip distribution. Such a model assumes that the spatial DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

10 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling 7 distribution of trip making can be described by an analogy to the gravitational interaction of physical bodies distributed over space. The model assumes that the magnitude of trips flowing between two zones is inversely proportional to their geographic separation (the impedance to travel). The existing P.M. peak hour origin-destination auto driver trip matrix determined through the trip distribution exercise is presented in Attachment 2. The P.M. peak hour trip matrix was determined from the P.M. peak period matrix by applying a factor of TRAFFIC ASSIGNMENT AND MODEL CALIBRATION The purpose of traffic assignment is to predict the flow of trips between origin-destination pairs over the transportation network. The aim of model development is to replicate existing traffic conditions on the transportation network. The Stochastic User Equilibrium assignment method was used in the assignment procedure. This method assumes that transportation link costs depend on the traffic volume using the link. Thus, as more traffic is assigned to particular routes, travel times over the route increase and serve to discourage subsequent travelers from using the route. Travel time over any given link in the network was assumed to be a function of the assigned traffic volume, the free flow speed over that link, and the links capacity. The model applied the Bureau of Public Roads (BPR) function to estimate travel time for users over the network. The BPR relationship is as follows: T = T 0 (1 + α (Assigned Volume/Capacity) β ) Where: T = the travel time at which the assigned volume can travel over the subject link T 0 = the base travel time at zero volume α, β = parameters to be estimated during model calibration (typically, α = 0.15, β = 4.0) The application of the BPR function ensures that route choice is made such that traveller travel time is minimized, so that the assignment procedure follows a capacity constraint relationship. 9.1 Screen Line Analysis The travel demand model was calibrated based on existing traffic counts enumerating traffic patterns over the transportation network. In doing so, assigned traffic volumes were compared with the existing traffic volume data. A series of screen lines were developed as part of the study. The screen lines represent cross-sections through principal travel corridors throughout the City, and permit the comparison of modelled to existing volumes, as well as the evaluation of modelled traffic volumes with respect to roadway capacities of transportation corridors. The screen lines are illustrated in Figure 3.. DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

11 GARDINERS CNR Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling 8 Figure 3 Screen Lines CNR HWY. 401 NORTH-WEST CNR ABBEY DAWN CORONATION - NEIL CNR BAYRIDGE HWY. 401 SOUTH-WEST HWY. 401 NORTH-EAST HWY. 401 SOUTH-EAST HWY B ATH FRONT PRINCESS - COUNTER CNR CREEK LITTLE CATARAQUI BATH - CONCESSION VICTORIA - BEVERLEY DIVISION BARRIE WELLER ELLIOTT JOSEPH RAGLAN QUEEN RIVER CATARAQUI LEGEND: (NAME) Roads Screenlines SCALE: km DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

12 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling Calibration The P.M. peak hour auto driver origin-destination matrix is presented in Attachment 3, and it represents trips internal to the Study Area. The model had to also account for trips passing through the study area (particularly along Highway 401), as well trips to the City by those living outside the Study Area, and vice-versa. The model also needed to account for the commercial traffic through the City. In addition, there was the possibility that differences between modelled traffic volumes and traffic counts were due to seasonal variation. The model was based on a survey conducted in the winter while the majority of the traffic data collected by the City was collected in the summer and fall. The following table summarizes adjustments made for external and through trips for the City. Table 2 Adjustments for External and Through Trips for the P.M. Peak Hour Description of Trips Trips Highway 401 Through Eastbound 300 Highway 401 Through Westbound 400 North to Internal 500 East to Internal 1050 Internal to East 300 West to Internal 1550 Internal to West 450 The exploration of seasonal variation proved inconclusive given the limited number of location where winter counts were available. Heavy vehicle percentages noted in the City s and other traffic counts were taken to be representative of the extent of commercial traffic through the City. Adjustments for commercial traffic were made to modelled volumes by roadway functional class, as well as individual basis where warranted. The base year model traffic assignment was compared on a screen line basis with existing P.M. peak hour traffic volumes. The following table summarized the calibration results by screen line. The calibration criterion was determined to be equal to 25%, that is modelled volumes within 25% of the observed volumes were considered to be calibrated. The results of Table 3 suggest a number of screen lines for which the modelled volumes were beyond the 25%. To compensate for this discrepancy, adjustment factors were calculated that were used to adjust the modelled volumes to match the observed. DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

13 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling 10 Table 3 Model Calibration Results for the 2001 P.M. Peak Hour By Screen Line Screen Line Observed Volume Eastbound / Northbound Modelled Volume Modeled / Observed Westbound / Southbound Modelled Volume Observed Volume Modeled / Observed East-West Screen Lines Coronation Blvd. Neil Road Bayridge Drive Hwy. 401 West of CR Gardiners Road Little Cataraqui Creek Victoria Street Beverly Street Division Street Barrie Street Cataraqui River Abbey Dawn Road North-South Screen Lines Front Road West Joseph Street Johnson Street Queen Street Elliott Avenue Raglan Street Bath Road Concession Street Hwy. 33 Bath Road Weller Avenue Princess Street Counter Street Hwy. 401 South West Hwy. 401 North West Hwy. 401 South East Hwy. 401 North - East FUTURE CONDITIONS 10.1 Future Base Population and Employment Projections Estimates of the Future Base population and employment levels for the study horizon were provided by the City of Kingston Urban Growth Study. The future base levels of were taken to be equal to those of land use Alternative 1 plus 2. The trips generated by these population and employment levels were calculated. The trips are summarized in Table 4. Details of the trip generation are presented in Attachment 4. DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

14 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling 11 Table P.M. Peak Period Trip Generation Description Trips Work Trips All Modes 45,834 Work Trips Automobile Mode 32,276 Non Work Trips Automobile Mode 68,015 Total Automobile Trips 100,291 Similarly to the existing trip matrices adjustments were made for external and through trips for the City. Table 5 Adjustments for External and Through Trips for the P.M. Peak Hour Description of Trips Trips Highway 401 Through Eastbound 445 Highway 401 Through Westbound 595 North to Internal 745 East to Internal 1560 Internal to East 445 West to Internal 2300 Internal to West Assignment of 2026 Future Traffic Volumes The future traffic volumes were assigned over the existing base network. Screen line evaluations of the assignment were then undertaken. Table 6 presents an evaluation of the future base volume and identifies potential deficiencies. The screen line analyses are outlined in more detail in Attachment APPLICATION OF THE MODEL The model was used to test a wide range of alternative solutions. Road infrastructure options were identified and tested individually and as part of a system of improvements. The findings are documented in the main Transportation Master Plan document. The model was also used to test alternative growth strategies as part of the Urban Growth Study. Population and employment estimates for each alternative growth strategy were used as input to the transportation model to test the transportation implications. DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

15 Kingston Transportation Master Plan Final Report, July 2004 Appendix IV: Modelling 12 Table 6 Future Base Volumes and Transportation Deficiencies Screen Line Volume Peak Hour Peak 2026 Volume Capacity Effective V/C =.90 Future Deficiency Volume Future Deficiency Lanes East - West Coronation / Neil 1,360 1,660 3,100 2,790 0 Bayridge Dr. 2,500 2,880 4,850 4,365 0 Hwy 401 west of CR4 1,085 1,875 3,600 3,240 0 Gardiners Rd. 3,380 5,415 5,400 4, Little Cataraqui 4,575 6,855 6,300 5,670 1,185 2 Victoria / Beverly 4,355 4,870 4,600 4, Division St. 1,400 2,255 2,150 1, Barrie St. 3,070 4,215 4,600 4, Cataraqui River 1,065 1, Abbey Dawn Rd ,700 1,530 0 North-South Front Rd. West 1,230 1,530 1,500 1, Joseph St. 2,065 2,310 2,000 1, Johnson St. 1,185 2,090 4,050 3,645 0 Queen St. 3,045 3,340 4,650 4,185 0 Elliott Ave. 1,525 2,095 1,650 1, Raglan Rd. 1,790 2,265 2,300 2, Bath / Concession 3,735 5,390 4,250 3,825 1,565 2 Hwy 33 (Bath Rd.) 2,360 3,620 3,050 2, Weller Ave. 1,505 1,985 2,700 2,430 0 Princess / Counter 3,005 5,065 5,100 4, Hwy 401 South-West 3,575 6,545 6,150 5,535 1,010 2 Hwy 401 North-West 1,895 2,610 2,750 2, Hwy 401 South-East 1,210 2,005 2,900 2,610 0 Hwy 401 North-East 880 1,290 2,200 1,980 0 DILLON CONSULTING LIMITED

16 ATTACHMENT ZONAL POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT DATA

17 2001 POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT BY TRAFFIC ZONE ZONE EMPLOYMENT POPULATION TOTAL

18 ATTACHMENT TRIP GENERATION

19 ZONE WORK ORIGINS HOUR PM PEAK PERIOD TRIP GENERATION WORK DESTINATION AUTO WORK ORIGINS AUTO WORK DESTINATIONS NON WORK AUTO ORIGINS NON WORK AUTO DESTINATIONS TOTAL

20 ATTACHMENT P.M. PEAK HOUR AUTO DRIVER ORIGIN- DESTINATION MATRIX

21 2001 P.M. PEAK HOUR AUTO DRIVER ORIGIN-DESTINATION MATRIX Total Destination Zones Origin Zones

22 2001 P.M. PEAK HOUR AUTO DRIVER ORIGIN-DESTINATION MATRIX Origin Zones Destination Zones Total Total

23 ATTACHMENT FUTURE BASE TRIP GENERATION MATRIX

24 2026 BASE POPULATION AND EMPLOYMENT BY TRAFFIC ZONE ZONE EMPLOYMENT POPULATION TOTAL

25 ZONE WORK ORIGINS HOUR PM PEAK PERIOD TRIP GENERATION WORK DESTINATION AUTO WORK ORIGINS AUTO WORK DESTINATIONS NON WORK AUTO ORIGINS NON WORK AUTO DESTINATIONS TOTAL

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