Changes in the Spatial Distribution of Mobile Source Emissions due to the Interactions between Land-use and Regional Transportation Systems

Transcription

1 Changes in the Spatial Distribution of Mobile Source Emissions due to the Interactions between Land-use and Regional Transportation Systems A Framework for Analysis Urban Transportation Center University of Illinois at Chicago and Argonne National Laboratory Conference on the Environment University of Illinois at Chicago April 9, 2003

2 Objectives of Presentation ƒ Discuss features essential for such efforts ƒ Discuss feasibility of approach in respect to: ¾ funding needs ¾ computational requirements ¾ balance in effort and expectations ¾ adaptability and transferability

3 Where Does All This Fit? We Are Here

4 Conventional Approaches Regional Economics Regional Demographics Trip Distribution Subregional Distributions Distribution by Income Level Economic Activity Mode Split Peaking Characteristics Auto Ownership Traffic Assignment Number of Trips Calculation of Impacts

5 Deficiencies of Prior Approaches ƒ One Shot Outputs ƒ High Degree of Spatial Aggregation ƒ Highly Aggregated Basic Employment Inputs ƒ Numerous Black Box Parameters ƒ No Direct Assessment of Environmental Impacts and Policies ƒ No Realistic Representation of Transportation Flows

6 Schematic Representation of Proposed Framework Land Use Transportation Environment

7 Initial Requirements for a New Approach ƒ Dynamic Projected Results on an Annual Basis ƒ Responsive to Environmental Regulations ƒ Ability to Analyze Alternative Regulatory Strategies ƒ Ability to Analyze Proposed Mitigation Approaches for Smaller Subregions

8 Subsystem Major Components and Interactions Basic Employment Land Use Subsystem Employment Location Residential Location Transportation Subsystem Travel Demand Forecasting Trip Distribution Mode Split Time-of-day Split Network Analysis Highway and Transit Assignments Vehicle Simulation Environmental Subsystem Transportation Control Measures Land Development Control Measures

9 Dynamic Features of Framework ƒ Updated Basic Employment ƒ Updated Travel Cost Matrices ƒ User Defined Inputs of Environmental Control

10 Dynamic Framework Structure Basic Employment Forecasts Basic Employment Forecasts Gravity Model Allocation Model Gravity Model Allocation Model Residential and Employment Location Estimated Origin-Destination Flows Mode Split Model Time-of-day Split Residential and Employment Location Estimated Origin-Destination Flows Mode Split Model Time-of-day Split Traffic and Transit Assignments and Vehicle Simulation Updated Link Cost Matrices Environmental Impact Assessment Year t Traffic and Transit Assignments and Vehicle Simulation Updated Link Cost Matrices Environmental Impact Assessment Year t+1

11 Functionalities of New Concept ƒ Two-way Interactions ƒ Dynamic Structure ¾ Historical Dependence ¾ Network Computational Innovations ¾ Growth Path Transparency ƒ Economic and Sociodemographic Characteristics ¾ Employment ¾ Improvement in Basic Employment Estimates ¾ Status of Retired and Unemployed Population

12 Functionalities of New Concept (cont.) ƒ Estimates of Transportation Demand Between Zones ƒ Zonal Geography ƒ Environmental Filters ƒ Land-use Patterns and Constraints ƒ Land Values and Rents ƒ Vehicular/Transportation Subsystem Representation ¾ Delay Estimates ¾ Vehicle Mix ¾ Time-of-day Aspect of Traffic

13 Functionalities of New Concept (cont.) ƒ User-given parameters ƒ Better Support of Environmental Impact Analysis

14 Modular Structure of Framework ƒ Module A: Employment/Residential Allocation, Spatial Interactions and Travel Demand Estimation ƒ Components ¾ Employment and Residential Allocation ¾ Gravity Model ¾ Mode Split ¾ Time-of-day Aspect of Traffic

15 Modular Structure of Framework (cont.) ƒ Module B: Network Analysis of Vehicular Traffic ƒ Components ¾ Shortest-route Computation ¾ Traffic Assignment ¾ Vehicle Movements Simulation for Air Quality Analysis ƒ Module C: Environmental Analysis and Assessments

16 Requirements for Environmental Analysis ƒ Spatial Database with Multiple Land Cover Classes ƒ Ability to Alter Coverages by Basic, Retail, Service and Residential Development ƒ Spatial Filtering of Outputs from Spatial Interaction and Allocation Processes ƒ Ability to Prioritize Legal Land Use Constraints

17 Operationalization of Proposed Framework ƒ Confirm Data Availability Aspects ƒ Conduct Experimentations ƒ Operationalize Different Versions of Framework ƒ Customize Outputs for Environmental Assessments and Policy Evaluation ƒ Improve Versions Incrementally ƒ Provide Tools to Balance Computational Requirements and Data Appetite vs. Level of Detail

18 Conceptualization for a Chicago Area Implementation ƒ Preprocessing Step ¾ Estimate Gravity Models and Mode Split Models ¾ Estimate Basic Employment ¾ Allocate Changes in Employment and Population from Previous Year ¾ Estimate Factors for Temporal Disaggregation of Trip Tables by Mode and Purpose ¾ Network Assignments by Time of Day ¾ Vehicle Simulation

19 Conceptualization for a Chicago Area Implementation (cont.) ƒ Land Use ¾ Alternating Iterations of Gravity Models for Work and Non-work Trips in a Lowry-type Setup (next slide) ¾ Estimate Basic Employment in Year t+1 ¾ Determine Zonal Geography ¾ Develop Land Use Classifications ¾ Develop Employment and Labor Participation Rates ¾ Develop Sociodemographic Data ¾ Develop Origin-Destination Cost Matrices Based on Travel Time, Travel Distance and Occupational Match ¾ Factor O-D Estimates for Time-of-day Trips

20 Employment and Residential Allocation Process Basic Employment in Zones Initial Estimates Working Population Living in Each Zone Total Employment as Derived at This Stage Revised Estimates Working Population Livingin Each Zone Total Employment as Derived at This Stage Service Employment in Each Zone Revised Estimates Continue to Convergence Or Cut-off Total Population in Each Zone Service Employment in Each Zone Total Population in Each Zone

21 Conceptualization for a Chicago Area Implementation (cont.) ƒ Transportation ¾ Develop Network and Vehicle Simulations ¾ Develop Road Network Scenarios by Facility Type ¾ Refine Time Resolution of Vehicle Simulation for Subareas

22 Conceptualization for a Chicago Area Implementation (cont.) ƒ Enviroment ¾ Develop Land Use Classification and Mapping Methodology ¾ Apply Remote Sensing Data Processing Standards ¾ Spatial Integration of Classified Thematic Maps ¾ Develop Sensor Fusion in Urban Areas

23 Tentative Scope of Proposed Framework ƒ Can project changes in land use and transportation interactions ƒ Can interact with models for mobile source emissions ƒ Can reflect lifestyle and policy factors driving VMT ƒ Can improve the spatial and temporal specificity of transportation and land-use scenarios ƒ Can simulate how investment choices in transportation infrastructure and technology influence changes in land use