OILRISK Web: Advanced Tool. Decision-making

Transcription

1 2011 WMU IMO Conference on Oil Spill Risk Management 7 9 March, Malmö, Sweden OILRISK Web: Advanced Tool for Enhancing Spill Response Decision-making Aps 1, R., Ambjörn 2, C., Fetissov 1, M., Karjalainen 3, M., Kotta 1, J., Kuikka 4, S. 1 University of Tartu, Estonian Marine Institute, Tallinn, Estonia 2 Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute Norrköping, Sweden 3 Kotka Maritime Research Centre, Kotka, Finland 4 University of Helsinki, Helsinki, Finland

2 Central idea of Uncertainty The idea that in order to make a decision i you need to focus on the consequences (which you can know) rather than the probability bilit (which h you can t know) is the central idea of uncertainty. t... All you have to do is mitigate the consequences Nassim Nicolas Taleb The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable

3 Boundary object A boundary object is a concept in sociology to describe information used in different ways by different communities

4 GIS technology based boundary objects GIS technology connects different social groups in the construction of new localized social arrangements while the negotiation of differences between different groups is fundamental to the construction of GIS technology based boundary objects

5 BoundaryGIS Web BoundaryGIS Web enables the GIS technology based boundary objects carry information and context that can be used to translate, t transfer and transform knowledge between communities of practice, and to support the negotiations aiming at building coherence between social groups concerned

6 Web Map Service (WMS) Standard protocol for serving georeferenced map images over the Internet Map images are generated by a map server using data from a GIS database WMS is a widely supported format for maps and GIS data accessed via the Internet

7 Dependable operation Availability: ability of the system to deliver services when requested Reliability: ability of the system to deliver services as specified Safety: ability of the system to operate without catastrophic failure Security: ability of the system to protect itself against accidental or deliberate intrusion

8

9

10

11

12

13

14 Pair-wise comparison of potential consensual decisions Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) based methodology of pair-wise comparison of potential consensual decisions is used Aim: apportioning resources among a set of alternatives and in assigning the available resources in an economical way Pair-wise i comparison refers to the process of comparing potential decision options in pairs to judge which of them is preferred For any two decision options, the first one is either ranked higher than, ranked lower than or ranked equal to the second one

15 The result of the Bayesian ranking of the potential decision by one of the decision makers. P1 P6 different potential decision pairs, RES probabilistic ranking of the potential decisions

16 Ranking results of the potential oil spill response decision by 6 different response managers that are further integrated into the final Bayesian ranking consensual outcome. P1_1 P6_1... P1_6 P6_6 different potential decision pairs. SUM_RES probabilistic bili ranking of the potential ti consensual decisions

17 Conclusions It is believed that the OILRISK Web - advanced tool for enhancing spill response decision-making can be used for traditional contingency planning and the training of personell informing the decision making and the stakeholders concerned communicating the risk assessment and the associated uncertainty

18 Conclusions It is believed that the OILRISK Web can support studies in transdiscipline of Informing Science (explores how best to inform clients using information technology) postnormal science (concept attempting to characterize a methodology of inquiry that is appropriate for cases where "facts are uncertain, values in dispute, stakes high and decisions urgent" (Funtowicz and Ravetz, 1991).

19 Conclusions It is believed that the OILRISK Web can support the process of science- policy co-production Term co-production is used to refer to processes that connect the production of knowledge with the organization of policy-making

20 Acknowledgment This study is supported by the Estonian target financing program SF s08, Estonian Science Foundation Grant No 7609, and by Central Baltic INTERREG IVA Programme Project OILRISK - Applications of ecological knowledge in managing oil spill risk

21 Thank you for your attention!