H.3 Severe Impacts of Hurricane Irma in Cuba: Forecast Models, Forecast and Warning Processes.

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1 H.3 Severe Impacts of Hurricane Irma in Cuba: Forecast Models, Forecast and Warning Processes. Jose Rubiera Institute of Meteorology, La Habana, Cubauba Special Session: Recent high-impact landfalling TCs from Around the Globe Fourth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-4) and Reseach Project Meeting World Trade Center, Macau 5 8 December, 2017

2 Outlines Hurricane Irma s Highlight Early Warnings Numerical Guidance Warning and Risk Communication TheTurning Point The Impacts Damage Overview The Aftermath

3 Hurricane IRMA August 30 September 12, 2017

4 Hurricane IRMA s Highlights The most powerful hurricane ever in the Atlantic basin North of the Caribbean and East of the Gulf of Mexico, packing sustained winds (1-min) of 296 km/h Longest continuous time as a Category 5 hurricane: 66 hours 150 hours with Major Hurricane status (CAT 3, 4, 5). Third place in all Atlantic Hurricane Seasons regarding individual ACE index for a single storm: 66.6 units

5 Early Warnings Early Warnings on the possibility of a Major Hurricane to hit Cuban Northern coast were issued at 120, and 72 hours before the projected landfall. Special Bulletins were issued every 6 hours from 72 hour before the hit, and 3-hourly from 24 hours before and during the whole event.

6 Numerical Guidance Inmediate Forecast System Numerical Ocean Atmosphere Forecast System

7 Numerical Guidance

8 Numerical Guidance

9 Numerical Guidance

10 Numerical Guidance

11 Numerical Guidance

12 Numerical Guidance Winds and Wave Setup

13 Warning and Risk Communication Challenge: No historical memory of what a hurricane like Irma could do. Last Major Hurricane had impacted the threatened area back in September Last Category 5 hurricane impacted Cuba in 1932.

14 Warning and Risk Communication Information was given by forecasters on National TV and radio networks First, at the TV/radio studios, as everyday s normal bussiness Then, directly from the National Forecast Center from 72 hours before the forecasted hit. (the change in the scenario acted as a conditional reflex to increase the perception of risk)

15 Warning and Risk Communication The frequency of information changed from 6 hourly to 3 hourly from 24 hours before the expected landfall. When the hurricane was already effecting Cuba, TV and radio broadcasts were made every hour, or when something interesting was reported (strongest winds, coastal inundation, rainfall, etc.)

16 Warning and Risk Communication Younger forecasters gave place to Seniours from 48 hours before the projected landfall, increasing the importance of the event and adding credibility in a person with experience and knowledge, in which people trust. Plain language was always used.

17 Warning and Risk Communication Winds and Wave Setup All future impacts were addressed, with the support of graphics Forecasted Track and Wind Field Rainfall

18 The Turning Point All models, foreign and Cubans, insisted in a turn to the North before reaching the longitude of Havana However, Forecasters were confident and steady on this difficult forecast. Though they were being questioned, with a great pressure over them. And then Irma did turn to the North as was forecasted.. A great success and even more credibility and respect earned by the MetService. All Sinoptic evidence also supported the turn to the North. But there was concerns Havana was already being badly hit, and a movement more to the West woud mean a great disaster in the Cuban Capital.

19 The Impacts Hurricane Winds in a wide area of the Northern coast of Cuba and te keys. A wider area in the Northern coast had a storm surge up to meter high, and a wave sutup of 6 to 7 meter high. Accumulated Rainfall totals had values of more tan 700 mm.

20 The Impacts Radar loop: A mosaic of 5 Cuban radars picking up Irma at the same time

21 Cuban Best Track The Impacts

22 IRMA s Total Accummulated Rainfall

23 IRMA s Total Accummulated Rainfall

24 Impacts: Winds

25 Impacts: Winds

26 Impacts: Storm Surge & Wind Setup

27 Impacts: Rainfall Rains were of benefit: Cuba was facing an extreme and long lasting drought. As an example, Zaza Dam, the largest in Cuba, was only at 15 % of its nominal capacity. After Irma it was at 93 %.

28 The Aftermath During the preparation stage, persons were evacuated and protected Only 10 people died in this major hurricane. Material and economic damages were very high, because of the impacts along the Northern coast

29 The Aftermath Electricity generation: Down to zero. Electrity had been almost completedly recovered (99.9 %) by September 29th. Housing: A total of houses were affected: totaly destroyed and with suffered partial damage. In addition, houses suffered total loss of roof, while had partial damage to the roof

30 The Aftermath Communication sector: Main damage in the telephone infrastructure: land lines down and data lines also down Roads: 537 kilometers damaged. Greated impacts in the causeways tp the touristvresorts of Santa Maria and Coco keys. Agriculture: Main effects concentrated in the poultry área, wuth 466 farms destroyed. Around hectares of various crops totally damaged

31 Conclusion Cuba has a well-organized hurricane warning and response program that goes a long way to ensure public safety, as it was shown with Irma s response. The forecast and warning system of the National Forecast Center proved to be good and efficient. Risk Communication also proved, once more, that it is a vital tool in preventing loss of life and providing people with the information they need. The rules of communication must be carefully followed, allowing people to have great confidence in the message, and, therefore, act accordingly.

32 References Rubiera, J., Puig, M., 2012: The Tropical Cyclone Early Warning System of Cuba, Chapter 2 in Institutional Partnership in Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems: A Compilation of Seven National Good Practices and Guiding Principles ; Editorial Springer, London-New York, 2012; ISBN pp Rubiera, J., 2013: Huracanes, Cambio Climático y Reducción del Riesgo; Temas 2013 (1), 73:39 43; ISSN X. Sierra, M. et al, 2016: Herramientas de detección, reporte y evaluación para salidas de modelos de pronóstico numérico desarrollado en Cuba. Revista Cubana de Meteorología, Vol. 22, No.2, pp , 2016, ISSN: X.