Marshall Alexander Forecaster Commonwealth of Dominica

Transcription

1 Marshall Alexander Forecaster Commonwealth of Dominica

2 Dominica

3 2015 Impacts Tropical Storm Danny (August 24 th ) Tropical Storm Erika (August 27 th ) Tropical Storm Grace (Remnants) (September 10 th -11 th ) Tropical Waves Trough Systems (November)

4 Climatology Douglas-Charles Canefield

5 Formation of Erika 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Season was projected to be below normal This is mainly due to the supressing effect of the el nino As seen with Erika it only takes one Be prepared Tropical Storm Erika had its genesis as a tropical wave just off the west coast of Africa on August 21, The system intensified to the fifth named storm of the 2015 Atlantic Hurricane Erika moved on a westward track over the 48 hour period from August 24th 26th.

6 3Day Forecast Track

7 Erika s Best Track

8 Surface wind field (90 mile north at 5am)

9 Local Statements: DMS Evening Forecast Bulletin issued on Radio at 6p.m. Bulletin Type: Erika expected to move through the Leeward Islands overnight Date: Wednesday, August 26, 2015 Time: 17:00 local time Erika is expected to move through the Leeward Islands overnight. At 5pm, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 north, longitude 58.9 west or about 195 miles east of Antigua. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the Leeward Islands tonight and move near the Virgin Islands on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts and little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning area tonight. Residents in Dominica should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with Erika is expected across the island and persons in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks should exercise extreme caution. Issued: 6:00 PM on Wednesday, August 26, 2015 Synopsis: Tropical Storm Erika located 16.6 N, 58.9 W at 5pm. Forecast for Tonight and Tomorrow: Cloudy to overcast with showers and thunderstorms Wind: North easterly to 15 to 45 km/h with higher gusts near showers. Sea Conditions: Moderate in open water. Waves: 2.5 to 3.0 meters or 8.0 to 10.0 feet. Warning/Advisory: A small craft warning is in effect for above normal sea swells. Sunrise: 5:52 AM Sunset: 6:22 PM Low Tide: 8:48 AM and 8:18 PM High Tide: 1:52 AM and 3:04 PM Weather Outlook for Dominica and the Lesser Antilles Issued: 6:00 PM on Wednesday, August 26, 2015 Instability associated with Tropical Storm Erika will generate shower and thunderstorm activity mainly across the northern portion of the island chain during the next 24 to 36 hours. Meanwhile, at 5pm, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 north, longitude 58.9 west or about 195 miles east of Antigua. Erika is moving toward the west near 17 mph. On the forecast track, the center of Erika will move near or over portions of the northern islands tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts and little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the warning area by tonight. Residents in Dominica should continue to monitor the progress of this system. Persons in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks should exercise extreme caution. Moderate to rough sea conditions are expected during the next 12 to 24 hours with waves peaking near 10.0 feet. A small craft warning is in effect for above normal seas. AT 5pm, the center of Tropical Storm Erika was located near latitude 16.6 north, longitude 58.9 West OR ABOUT 195 MILES EAST OF ANTIGUA. Erika continues to move toward the west at 17 mph and a track to the west-northwest and a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next 48 hours. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical Storm Watches and warnings are in effect for portions of the Leeward Islands at this time. Weather Prediction Model data is showing that the center of the system is expected to pass north of Dominica, that is, near or over portions of the Leeward Islands as a tropical storm tonight into Thursday. Tropical storm force winds extend 105 miles from the center. Conditions expected here in Dominica with the passage of Erika: Cloudy to overcast skies with moderate showers (heavy at times) and also thunderstorm activity. Gusty winds up to 45 km/h can also be expected during the early hours of tomorrow. Therefore, Residents are advised to be vigilant and continue to monitor the progress of this system and to be prepared to take the necessary precautions and actions to save lives and property. Persons in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks are advised to take the necessary precautions and to exercise extreme caution. Also, a small craft warning is in effect as a result small craft operators and sea bathers especially on the northern and eastern coast should exercise extreme caution.

10 Local Statement: DMS Residents are advised to be vigilant and continue to monitor the progress of this system and to be prepared to take the necessary precautions and actions to save lives and property. Persons in areas prone to flooding, landslides and falling rocks are advised to take the necessary precautions and to exercise extreme caution. Also, a small craft warning is in effect as a result small craft operators and sea bathers especially on the northern and eastern coast should exercise extreme caution.

11 IR Satellite Imagery 5:45a.m.

12 RADAR Imagery 05:50a.m.

13 Visible Satellite Imagery at 10:00a.m

14 Rainfall recorded at CanefieldStation

15 DOMEX Rain Gauge Comparison 400 mm BG 7.9 LD BL GB GF 3.9 PC CA : : : : :0 0 0 Latitude inches 500 August 27th, local time Longitude High altitude and eastern gauges have the most precipitation Lee side has less

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18 Douglas-Charles Airport

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21 CanefieldAirport

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23 E.O. Leblanc Highway (Layou)

24 Washed out bridge Coulibistri

25 West coast

26 Devastation at Petite Savanne

27 Petite Savanne Highest number of deaths in this area (...) Numerous landslides Heavy rainfall run-off

28 Church/School Roseau

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30 Multiple landslides high vulnerability

31 Search and Rescue activities

32 Airlift support

33 Damages from Erika Infrastructure: 6% of bridges fully destroyed 44% partially destroyed 17% of roads fully damaged 24% of roads partially damaged 478 houses damaged or destroyed Education 23 of 75 schools were directly affected 13 experienced structural damage 2 completely destroyed Other sectors affected: Agriculture, Tourism and Health Total cost to the country : USD 0.5billion

34 Compared to Hurricane David impacts 2 nd highest death toll (50 persons died during David) Displaced two communities - Petite Savanne and Dubique Mass evacuation and relocation

35 Lessons Learned More effective communication of warning messages to the public Take steps to educate the public on the meaning of warning messages Highlight the need for more involvement in community based disaster management by persons living in vulnerable areas (areas prone to floods, landslides)

36 Other Concerns Problem of the criteria for issuing tropical cyclone watches and warnings - based on wind speed only There is a concern locally that residents are only keen to listen when a tropical cyclone watch or warning is issued for the country Less attention is given by the population to the local warnings. It is felt that by broadening the watch/warning criteria to incorporate other parameters this will add weight to local warnings in a bid to save lives and property

37 Thank You