Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) and Third International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-III)

Transcription

1 Eighth International Workshop on Tropical Cyclones (IWTC-VIII) and Third International Workshop on Tropical Cyclone Landfall Processes (IWTCLP-III) (Jeju, Republic of Korea, 2-10 December 2014) THEME: Quantifying and Communicating Forecast Uncertainty Draft Programme (as of 24 November 2014) (Programme in pdf format) Monday (1 December) Pre-Workshop 15:00-18:00 Registration (Registration Deskin front of Main Hall) 16:30-17:30 Meeting of IOC, LOC, Topic/Session Chairs and (Charlotte room) Rapporteurs 18:00-18:30 Orientation Session (Charlotte room) 19:00-20:30 Forecaster Discussion Forum: Areas of greatest uncertainty in the Forecast Process (Charlotte room) 08:00-08:50 Registration 08:50-09:00 DAY 1: Tuesday (2 December) Traditional Korean Musical Instruments Performance (Registration Deskin front of Main Hall) (Main Hall) 09:00-09:45 Opening Ceremony (Main Hall) Master of Ceremony Welcome Address (WMO) Tang Xu Welcome Address (Host) Guest of Honor Congratulatory Address (Host) Guest of Honor 09:45-09:50 Group Photo Green Garden 09:50-10:00 (10 min) 10:00-10:10 Address IWTC-VIII co-chair (10 min) 10:10-10:15 Logistical Arrangements Kun-Young Byun (5 min) 10:15-10:40 Review of IWTC-VII Jeff Kepert, Liz Ritchie

2 10:40-10:55 10:55-11:00 11:00-11:50 (Influence of past recommendations on research) Introduction of NTC/KMA - KMA and effective use of TC information Update on Global Guide to TC Forecasting KEYNOTE Session: Uncertainty from an Operational Perspective KNa: Issues identified during TC Ita KNb: Concerns identified by the forecaster community, areas of greatest uncertainty in the forecast process & Chris Velden Won-Tae Wun Chip Guard Peter Otto Andrew Burton (15min) (5 min) (50 min) 11:50-13:20 LUNCH Topic 1: Motion (Topic Chairs: Grant Elliott and Munehiko Yamaguchi) Topic 1: Motion-Recent Grant Elliott and 13:20-14:10 (50 min) Advances Munehiko Yamaguchi 14:10-14:20 14:20-15:20 15:20-15:45 Instructions for Breakout Groups & Information on the Recommendations Process IWTC8 co-chairs TOPIC 1: Motion (10 min) 15:45-17:00 Special Focus Sessions (75 min) SF 1a: Specifying Forecast Russ Elsberry and Buck Intensity Uncertainty Sampson Main Hall SF 1b: CycloneCener.org: Crowd Sourcing Science SF 1c: Data Assimilation & Observing Systems Chris Hennon Sharan Majumdar Pearl Room 17:00 End of DAY 1 18:00-20:00 Welcome Dinner Reception Hosted by: LOC Charlotte Room DAY 2: Wednesday (3 December) Topic 2: Cyclogenesis, Intensity and Intensity Change (Topic chairs: Liz Ritchie and Chun-Chieh Wu) 08:30-09:10 09:10-09:50 09:50-10:30 10:30-10:55 10:55-12:00 Topic 2.1: Cyclogenesis: Review of Latest Science Topic 2.2: Cyclogenesis: Operational Forecasting Perspective Topic 2.3: Objective Satellite Analysis and Intensity Topic 2.4: Subjective Satellite Analysis of Intensity (Exploring Uncertainty in Intensity Analysis) Anantha Aiyyer Chris Landsea and Lixion Avila Derrick Herndon and Chris Velden Joe Courtney (65 min)

3 12:00-13:10 Special Focus Sessions (70 min) SF 2a: Roundtable Panel Discussion on Evolving Methods to Estimate Intensity from Satellites Chris Velden Main Hall SF 2b: Clustering and Other Novel NWP Post-processing Techniques Julia Keller Pearl room 13:10-14:20 LUNCH (70 min) 14:20-15:00 15:00-15:40 15:40-16:00 16:00-16:40 16:40-17:05 17:05-18:10 Topic 2.5: Intensity Change: External Influences Topic 2.6: Intensity Change: Internal Influences Topic 2.7: Advances in Intensity Guidance Topic 2: Chair Summary and Marie-Dominique Leroux Dan Stern and Jason Dunion Buck Sampson Liz Ritchie and Chun-Chieh Wu TOPIC 2: Cyclogenesis, Intensity and Intensity Change & SF sessions 18:10 End of DAY 2 19:30 (65 min) Ruby, Pearl, Meeting of TC RSMC/TCWC Directors & their representatives (Charlotte room) DAY 3: Thursday (4 December) Topic 3: Communication and Effective Warning Systems (Topic Chair: Gary Foley) Topic 3.1: Effective Warning Barbara Brown and 08:30-09:10 Process: Forecast Validation Beth Ebert 09:10-09:50 09:50-10:10 10:10-10:25 Topic 3.2: Effective Warning Process: Recent Social Science Contributions Topic 3: Chair Summary and SF 3a: Paying for Predictions: Experiencing the Complexity of Decision Making for Future Risks SF 3b: IBTrACS: Best track data and User Needs Betty Morrow, Jeff Lazo and Ajit Tyagi Gary Foley 10:25-11:45 Special Focus Sessions (80 min) Andrew Burton In association with the Red Main Hall Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre 11:45-12:30 Ken Knapp TOPIC 3: Communication and Effective Warning Systems & SF sessions Pearl room 12:30 End of Day 3 12:30-13:30 LUNCH 13:30 GROUP EXCURSION (Optional) 19:00 Welcome Dinner Reception Hosted by NIMR Ruby, Pearl,

4 DAY 4: Friday (5 December) Topic 4: Structure and Structure Change (Topic Chairs: Pat Harr and Naoko Kitabatake) 09:00-09:40 09:40-10:20 10:20-10:55 10:55-11:15 11:15-11:50 11:50-12:30 Topic 4.1: Structure Change Processes Plenary Special Focus Session 4a: Objective Structure Analysis Topic 4.2: Advances in Understanding Extratropical Transition (ET) Topic 4.3: Structure Change Forecasting (including ET) Topic 4.4: Air-Sea Interface and Oceanic Influences Bob Hart John Knaff Julia Keller and John Gyakum Chris Fogarty and Fuqing Zhang Nick Shay (35 min) (35 min) 12:30-13:45 LUNCH (75 min) 13:45-14:25 14:25-15:15 15:15-15:35 15:35-16:00 16:00-17:00 Topic 4.5: Role of the Boundary Layer Plenary Special Focus Sessions: Case Studies in Communication Challenges Jeff Kepert (70 min) SF 4b: TC Evan Misaeli Funaki SF 4c: Hurricane Sandy Chris Landsea Topic 4: Chair Summary and Naoko Kitabatake and Pat Harr TOPIC 4: Structure and Structure Change & PSF sessions 17:00-18:15 Special Focus Sessions (75 min) SF 4d: WWRP post-thorpex Overview: Paolo Ruti Main Hall (25 HIWeather: Sharan Majumdar S2S: Frederic Vitart SF 4e: Himawari 8 Kotaro Bessho Pearl room 18:15 End of DAY 4 DAY 5: Saturday (6 December) Topic 5: Beyond Synoptic Timescales (Topic Chair: Adam Sobel) 08:30-09:10 Topic 5.1: Interaction with John McBride and Climate Change Kevin Walsh 09:10-09:50 Topic 5.2: Seasonal Forecasts Frederick Vitart 09:50-10:10 10:10-10:45 10:45-11:00 11:00-11:50 Topic 5.3: Intraseasonal Time Scales Topic 5: Chair Summary and Hyemi Kim Adam Sobel TOPIC 5: Beyond Synoptic Time Scales (35 min) 11:50-13:00 LUNCH (70 min) (50 min)

5 13:00-14:30 14:30-14:50 14:50-16:20 Recommendations: Discussion Recommendations: Discussion CM Shun CM Shun 16:20-16:35 Closing End of DAY 5/IWTC-VIII portion DAY 6: Sunday (7 December) Rest Day DAY 7: Monday (8 December) START of IWTCLP-III 09:00-09:30 Registration (Registration Deskin front of Main Hall) 09:30-09:40 Welcome Remarks Chair IWTCLP-III (10 min) 09:40-10:00 Review of Action Items from Previous IWTCLP Rob Rogers 10:00-10:05 Group Photo TBA 10:05-10:30 Topic 6: Track, Structure and Intensity Changes at Landfall (Topic Chair: 10:30-11:15 11:15-12:00 Summary of previous research related to track, structure and intensity changes at landfall Forecasting challenges related to track, structure and intensity changes at landfall HC Kuo ST Chan & Jim Davidson 12:00-13:30 LUNCH 13:30-15:00 New research related to track, structure and intensity changes at landfall Terrain-influences local wind forecasting for the Sasebo Typhoon Haven An Observational Study on Interaction between Typhoons and Underlying Poyang Lake Basin in China Effects of Topography on Tropical Cyclone Tracks Joel Feldmeier Li Ying Chi Kit Tang Q&A Session All Speakers 15:00-15:30 15:30-16:00 Topic 8: Chair Summary Kevin Cheung 16:00-17:00 Topic 6 Recommendations 17:00 End of DAY 7 18:00 IWTCLP-III Welcome Reception Hosted by LOC

6 DAY 8: Tuesday (9 December) Topic 7: Storm Surge (Topic Chair: 09:00-09:45 09:45-10:30 10:30-11:00 11:00-12:30 Summary of previous research related to storm surge Forecasting challenges and advances related to storm surge New research related to storm surge Numerical Simulation of Storm Surge along Sri Lanka Coast Coastal Ocean Current and Wave Response to Hurricane Jeanne Using High Frequency Radar for Surge Modeling Storm Surge Disaster in the Philippines during Typhoon Haiyan (1330) Nadao Kohno Bruce Harper IMSP Jayawardena Nick Shay Nadao Kohno Q&A Session All Speakers 12:30-13:30 LUNCH 13:30-14:00 Topic 7: Chair Summary Bruce Harper 14:00-15:00 15:00-17:00 19:00-21:00 POSTER SESSION (covering new research for all topics, including coffee break) Forecaster Panel Discussion Global Perspectives on Challenges and Opportunities for Forecasting TC Landfall Impacts Topic 7 Recommendations (120 min) (120 min) VSCS Phailin over BOB M Mohapatra TC Wind Field Determination: Challenges & Possibilities The Comparison of Typhoon Track Forecast using Dynamical Initialization Scheme-installed WRF A new operational convection-permitting NWP system for TC Forecasting in the SW Indian Ocean NHC operational analysis and prediction products of TC effects at landfall Peter Otto Hyeonjin Shin Olivier Bousquet Chris Landsea Panel Discussion All Speakers End of DAY 8 DAY 9: Wednesday (10 December) 08:30-09:15 Topic 8: Rainfall (Topic Chair: Hui Yu) Summary of previous research related to rainfall Tim Marchok

7 09:15-10:00 10:00-10:30 10:30-12:00 Forecasting challenges related to rainfall New research related to rainfall Advances in methods for evaluating TC precipitation forecasts and hazards Probabilistic Quantitative Precipitation forecast for TC Rainfall Uncertainty in rainfall prediction of land falling TCs over India: Impact of data assimilation Woo-Wang Chun Barb Brown WC Woo UC Mohanty Q&A Session All Speakers 12:00-12:30 Topic 8: Chair Summary Hui Yu 12:30-13:30 LUNCH 13:30-14:30 14:30-15:00 15:00-15:30 15:30-16:00 IWTCLP3 Recommendations: Discussion Recommendation Committee: Summaries of all recommendations Topic 8 Recommendations Robert Rogers CM Shun 16:00 End of IWTC-VIII and IWTCLP-III