4.3 Structure Change Forecasting
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1 4.3 Structure Change Forecasting Chris Fogarty Canadian Hurricane Center, Canada Fuqing Zhang Pennsylvania State University, USA IWTC8 Jeju, Korea 1-10 December 2014
2 TC Structure Concerns Size Vertical Profile Radial Profile Asymmetries Evolution through time Various metrics wind, humidity, temperature, pressure
3 OUTLINE Aspects of TC Structure Prediction Initial size - dependence (on environmental humidity) Initial size - and subsequent track/intensity Model initialization issues Thermal advection and rapid intensification (RI) Effect of eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) Topographic influences Guidance on guidance Verification metrics (NWP) Extratropical Transition (ET) Relation to damage potential Considerations regarding Climate Change
4 Structure (size) matters: larger storms often bring greater surge (fatalities, damage)
5 Same intensity (max wind speed) much different central pressure / overall energy ACE (accumulated cyclone energy) for Floyd was roughly 2.5X larger at this time than Charley
6 Hill and Lackmann (2009) Initially humid ambient environment favors large TCs
7 Influence of TC size parameter on subsequent RI (rapid intensification) potential Carrasco and Landsea (2014)
8 Initial vortex specification experimentation Leroux et al. (2013) Compact storm prescription for Sinlaku deepens too far/fast and too far east
9 48-hour forecast verifying better than 00HR! spinup issue (poor initialization) Canadian GEM. Similar case in 2011 (Ophelia) 986 Fogarty/CHC
10 HWRF high resolution model improvements Tallapragada et al. (2013) spinup artifacts reduced
11 HWRF high resolution model improvements (verification) Tallapragada et al. (2013) reflectivity 2-km wind speed / streamlines Pre- RI Aircraft Model Aircraft Model RI
12 Diagnostic for intensification/ri aerial extent of lower tropospheric warm advection greater than cold advection Callaghan ( ) Note: directionally-varying shear (red) across the storm circulation at 700 (black)
13 Hurricane Wilma simulation: 1-km WRF model Zhang and Chen (2012) pressure deficit: contribution from stratospheric subsidence-induced warming above the 380-K theta surface (curve B) and diabatic warming below (curve C)
14 Typical eyewall replacement cycle (ERC) profiles (2012)
15 Landfall of Typhoon Nari (2001) Yang et al. (2011) GRL 2-km MM5 Simulations Tangential wind (shaded) Radial inflow (dashed) In full topo simulation: RMW contraction Large radial inflow Contraction begins ~2 hours before landfall
16 Hurricane Ike structure change over Cuba RMW expands by factor of ~2 (Knaff and DeMaria 2006)
17 Assessing NWP structure predictions Vigh (2014) Flight-level winds (black) Model-predicted flight level-equivalent (red)
18 Evaluating performance of HWRF s upgrades Tallapragada et al. (2012)
19 Wind and rainfall evolution during Post-Tropical Storm Arthur 2014 Case of damaging winds confined to near-track and left-of-track
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23 Communicating this left-/neartrack exception to the right-oftrack wind max rule was a challenge. (even though it was correctly predicted)
24 Northwest Pacific study of Max winds right-/left-of-track using reanalysis data Loridan et al. (2014) Many more left-of-track maxima for faster-moving, ET-type scenarios compared to purely-tropical events
25 Parametric wind field representing the left-of-track ET structure Loridan et al. (2014) Important for future risk assessment from ET cyclones
26 Recall:
27 Guishard (2014) RPI/BIOS Counter-intuitive upon first inspection
28 Intuitive Guishard (2014) RPI/BIOS
29 Kanada et al. (2013) 2-km non-hydrostatic model used to downscale a 20-km an AGCM to study sub-900- mb TCs MYLK and DDLK are different boundary layer schemes
30 Acknowledgements/Contributors Mark Guishard Bermuda - RPI Jeff Callaghan Australia - BoM (ret.) Ming-Jen Yang Taiwan - National Central U. Jonathan Vigh USA - NCAR Da-Lin Zhang USA - U. of Maryland Tang Jie China - Shanghai Typhoon Inst. Jonathan Poterjoy USA - Penn. State U. Julia Keller Europe/Germany - DWD Emilie Scherer England - TSR Gary Lackmann Brian McNoldy Cristina Carrasco Dominique Leroux James Kossin John Knaff Sachie Kanada USA - NCSU USA - RSMAS USA - NC A&TSU France - Meteo France USA - NOAA NCDC USA - NOAA CSRA Japan - Met. Res. Inst.
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