ET Forecasting, Communication and Outreach at the Canadian Hurricane Center

Transcription

1 ET Forecasting, Communication and Outreach at the Canadian Hurricane Center TRCG2 Macau, China 2 December 2013 Chris Fogarty Head, Canadian Hurricane Center

2 My role/duties Head of the Canadian Hurricane Center in Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada My roles (with focus on multidisciplinary) Forecast operations (planning, bulletin review/production) Training (recruiting/staffing) Direction for Research and NWP Outreach (domestic and international engagement) Products Improvement (software)/website Enhancement Media (including new social media and relationship building with local media and weather broadcasters) forum, article review, short article/report preparation Page 2

3 Select Activities IWTC (6 and 7) colleague reps since at least 3 rd Rapporteur Topic 2.5 ET Prediction (multi basin) IWET (2,4) colleague representation 1,3 TC Landfall Processes (Macau March 2005) Spanish Forecaster Training Madrid, 2008 (ET/subtropical-type cyclones) AMS bi-annual conferences since 2002 (colleagues before) PhD Research NWP of ET SST sensitivity Kerry Emanuel external examiner Plenary presenter National Hurricane Conference Communication of Forecasts Page (ET) 3 for media

4 Canadian Hurricane Center Response Zone On average, 1 or 2 storms directly affect Canadian land regions each year. Another 2 or 3 typically threaten our offshore waters.

5 Saxby Gale Oct 1869 Great Nova Scotia Cyclone Aug 1873 Galveston Hurricane Sept 1900 Great August Gale 1927 Hazel Oct 1954 Edna Sept 1954 Escuminac Disaster Jun 1959 Beth Aug 1971 Juan Sept 2003 Igor Sept 2010 Severe Tropical Cyclone Related Events in Canada

6 Conceptual model - Schematic of ET (for training)

7 Opportunistic SAR high-resolution wind overpass by Canadian RadarSat Page 7

8 Another opportunistic SAR scan capturing wind field early in the ET process Page 8

9 Non-conventional situations where the Hurricane Center maintains alert to provide advise / guidance for colleagues and partners Page 9

10 IN ADDITION TO TROPICAL STORM GERT, WE ARE MONITORING A COMPACT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION ABOUT 450 KM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF HALIFAX WHICH HAS BEEN SPAWNING CONVECTION INTERMITTENTLY OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. SUNDAY EVENING'S ASCAT PASS SHOWED A SMALL BAND OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THIS CIRCULATION. THE CHC WILL CONTINUE MONITORING THIS AREA FOR STRONG WINDS. THE MARINE FORECAST FOR EAST SCOTIAN SLOPE AND LAURENTIAN FAN HAS BEEN AMENDED TO REFLECT THIS "WANNABE" TROPICAL CYCLONE. Similar structure / pattern to Unnamed TS (#12) about 2 weeks later Wannabe cyclone of mid Aug 2011 These types of systems appear in this region about once every other season TS Gert

11 TS Sean / Front Nov 2011 As in 2010, some late-season TCs are tapped-into by farreaching cold fronts to the north which can raise flooding potential GOES WV imagery TPW 100 mm (4 ) < 24 hrs flooding Halifax Nova Scotia

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19 Page 19 BAMS Aug 2013

20 ET Forecasting Working Group IWTC7 D. Anwender Ensemble Modeling (N. Hemisphere) E. Atallah PV Perspective (U.S./Canada) J. Beven Forecasting (U.S./Canada) P. Caroff Forecasting (LaReunion/SW Indian Ocean) E.-J. Cha Forecasting (Korea) R. Das Forecasting (New Zealand / SW Pacific) C. Evans ET Dynamics (North America) C. Fogarty Forecasting/Outreach (Canada) K. Griffin Climatology (Indian Ocean) R. Hart Objective Monitoring/Forecasting (N. America) J. Heming Forecasting/Modeling (United Kingdom) M. Jurewicz Forecasting Rainfall/PREs (United States) N. Kitabatake Forecasting/Research (Japan) M. Kucas Forecasting (Northwest Pacific) M. Riemer Shear dynamics (N. Hemisphere)

21 The Big Picture working group contributors globally

22 Key changes over past decade Increase in media attention (over increasingly longer timescales) + social media Availability of forecaster tools (display of NWP online, weather blogs, private sector agencies) Advancement of official forecast products Users are asking more (and more specific) questions Changes in how forecast information is used e.g. GIS display / users ability to display/modify met objects

23 Operational timescales and communications Canadian Hurricane Center operations timescale and primary communication medium (red): T-3 months Pre-season Forecast (late May) Media briefing T-1 month In-season updates (media requests) state of environment interviews T-10 days Storm formation Update (media/em Stakeholders) + internal product (10-day outlook) T-7 days Storm formation Update (media/em Stakeholders) Interviews/ / phone T-5 days prior to storm arrival east. Canada media ramps up interviews/ phone T-4 days T-3 days General stmt no CHC begins 24-7 track table or details staffing issuing general descriptive and technical stmts / track map T-1.5 days issue Watches in coord. with NHC phone/ /nwschat T-1 day T+1 day issue storm summary bulletin Warnings bulletins and and wrap-up; data Intermediate (3-hrly) collection; debriefings stmts; impact stmts

24 New Products Common Phraseology being coded into software drop-down menus

25 Future track map sample particularly useful when dealing with extratropical transition and asymmetric transformation of wind/rain

26 Discussion/Questions? Let s talk and share knowledge and ideas while we re together in Macau Page 26