Alaska PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop: Motivation, results

Transcription

1 Alaska PRIDE wind/wave climatology workshop: Motivation, results David E. Atkinson International Arctic Research Center / Atmospheric Sciences Department University of Alaska Fairbanks James Partain National Weather Service, Alaska Region Headquarters NOAA

2 Objective: Improve operational capacity for emergency response Improve operational capacity for emergency response

3 Justifications for this work Alaska gets powerful storms understanding required: Important link with Pacific region many are recurving tropical cyclones Drives wave/surge activity = erosion Impact on coastal communities villages Economic importance of Anchorage for AK, US Impacts on natural systems, some critical ground thermal regime (ice) marine productivity Contribution of knowledge US positioning for international science efforts Increasing public awareness Increasing political interest/activity

4 Justification: Alaska gets strong storms Historically, Deepest recorded SLP 925 mb Strongest surface sustained winds 139mph October 2004: 941 mb storm (946 mb storm 1 week later) Category 4 hurricane in the Atlantic (using only pressure) Type Category Pressure Winds Surge mb knts mph ft Depression TD < 34 < Tropical Storm TS Hurricane 1 > Hurricane Hurricane Hurricane Hurricane 5 < 920 > 135 > 155 > 18

5 Bering Sea storm October 19, 2004

6 Bering Sea storm October 19, 2004 SLP

7 Justification: Alaska coastal communities are impacted Justification: Alaska coastal communities are impacted

8 Mechanisms for coastal impacts Cliff notching and slope slump failure High wave energy + positive surge S. Solomon, Cdn Beaufort S. Solomon, Cdn Beaufort Thermal stress on ice bodies Block failure S. Solomon, Cdn Beaufort A. Mahoney, US Beaufort V. Rachold, East Siberian V. Rachold, Laptev David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

9 Impacts communities and infrastructure S. Ogorodov, Barents S. Solomon, Cdn Beaufort David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University G. of Manson, Alaska Cdn Fairbanks Beaufort

10 Impacts Alaska - communities The following communities in AK are threatened: Homer (Katchemak Bay/Kenai) Newtok (Kenai) Shishmaref (Seward) Point Hope (North Slope /Lisburne Peninsula) Kivalina (North Slope/Lisburne Peninsula) Barrow (North Slope) Bluff and seawall defense at Homer, AK Picture from High School project by Monica Peters Nat Seaman Joleena Baugh Kirsten Baltz 2003, Homer High School David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

11 Impacts Alaska - communities Figure given to me by Tohru Saito, IARC

12 Impacts Alaska - communities Shishmaref bluff retreat Photos by Julie Baltar, story in the Nome Nugget Shishmaref, AK - ecological systems threatened - way of life threatened David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

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14 Justification: Current/growing economic importance of Anchorage Airport important international air cargo hub 1 Hong Kong Int l 2 Memphis Int l 3 Tokyo Narita 4 Anchorage Ted Stevens International 5 Seoul Incheon (source: Air Cargo News, 2005) Port of Anchorage beginning a large re-fit plus new (hoped for) rail link into Canada will make Anchorage competitive with LA, Seattle

15 Justification: Other impacts of AK storms Justification: Other impacts of AK storms

16 Impact on ground thermal regime Impact on ground thermal regime Temperature C

17 Impact on marine productivity NOAA 2nd PRIDE meeting - EOS article about Isabel and mixing - Arctic waters very productive, often stratified; potential large effect

18 Justification: Interfacing with large projects (science oriented) This work will better position the US to integrate with large projects such as LOICZ (Land-Ocean Interactions in the Coastal Zone)

19 Justification: Increasing general public awareness (public oriented) - Better positioned to respond to public requests for information/products Example Discover article that mentions AK village problems (readership > 1M; 800K for Scientific American)

20 Justification: Increasing political awareness and scientific activity at home and internationally = policy development David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

21 Justification: Increasing political awareness and scientific activity at home and internationally Report/project/proposal call Year Senate bill S-50: Tsunami mitigation and preparedness act Focus region Agency Synthesis of Arctic System Science Senate bill S-49: Alaska Floodplain and Erosion Mitigation Commission Act of Alaska Arctic Marine Transport Workshop 2005 Circum-arctic Arctic Coastal Dynamics Project: annual reports, GeoMarine Letters special volumes Arctic Climate Impacts Assessment (ACIA) Alaska Native Villages: Villages affected by flooding have difficulty qualifying for federal assistance Committee Field Hearing on Alaska Native Villages Affected by Flooding and Erosion Study of the North Alaskan Coastal System (SNACS) call for proposals (annual back to 2000) 2004 (full report 2005) Circum-arcic Circm-arctic 2004 Alaska 2004 Alaska 2004 Alaska Circum-arctic / Alaska NSF OPP US Senate Institute of the North, US-ARC, IASC IASC, IPA, IARC IASC, IARC, CGC US GAO US Senate Committee on Appropriations NSF OPP

22 Coastal Dynamics as a Function of Environmental Forcing and Coastal Geology/Geocryology Environmental Sustainability Workshop UA Anchorage, January 7, 2005 IASC Council Meeting at ASSW 2003 (Kiruna, Sweden) Figure by Volker Rachold, Alfred Wegener Institute, Potsdam, Germany David E. Atkinson IARC/Atm. Sci., University of Alaska Fairbanks

23 PRIDE Alaska: Towards an operational wind/wave climatology Work completed towards FY05 as James showed us

24 Activity Description Status Wave model Gather information about deep ocean and Completed August 2005 compilation near shore wave models suitable for use by this project that are available in the US or easily available abroad Literature Gather references and documents concerning Underway August 2005; search Data ingestion Conduct scoping workshop relevant work that bears on this project Gather data necessary to discharge some of the science components required to complete this project. Begin with the NCEP North American Regional Reanalysis Run a workshop to scope out the project. Focus at this point is on Alaska: workshop held therefore in Anchorage. State and stakeholder representation was obtained. Group formed an on-going resource for science plan development and theme work. references being compiled Underway August 2005 First NARR wind fields obtained; first handling programs written Completed August 2005 Final report in the form of a science plan (currently in preparation)

25 Work underway by O. Francis-Chythlook Literature search and review for AK (and elsewhere) material relevant to this project Identification of wave/ice models Preparation of North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) data to begin climatology work Model ACES ADCIRC BOUSS-2D type year DeepAutomated Coastal Engineering System 1992 ADvanced CIRCulation model 1994 Boussinesq wave model 1993 etc. 35 identified Current version of chart posted

26 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 Essential goal: Assess capacity available to bring to bear on this project Expert solicitation Across discipline boundaries Across organizational boundaries secondary requirement avoid duplication

27 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 Organizations, disciplines represented: NOAA management, ops HI/AK, sea ice, data, wave modeling, coastal CIFAR, JIMAR USACE wave modeling, coastal engineering Navy ocean modeling USGS coastal geology MMS current modeling UH; UA Fairbanks, Anchorage; NCSU atmospheric, oceanographic, engineering State of AK Transport, planning, emergency preparedness AOOS, Arctic Coastal Dynamics project, Kachemak Bay Research Reserve, Arctic Research Commission, Private consultants scientific, permafrost, erosion modeling, ecosystem, observing networks

28 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 NOAA Climate Office NESDIS/ NCDC NOS Coastal Services Center Pacific Services Center NWS Alaska, Pacific regions NCEP EMC, CPC

29 Storm Tracks from February 14, 2005 March 15, 2005 Deep cyclones just southwest of Alaska CPC: seasonal outlooks CSC: shoreline mapping w SAR Slow moving storms off California coast in early February Frequent Alberta clippers in early March Intermap IFSAR at Icy Bay, AK

30 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 wave modeling Navy Naval Research Labs USACE Coastal & Hydraulics Lab NOAA Marine Modeling and Applications Branch

31 MMAB Alaska Waters regional model, approximate resolution 25 km. Aleutian Islands modeled as subgrid obstacles. CHL wave hindcast NRL wave climatologies

32 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 Data issues Storage/ Management Gaps terrestrial, marine challenges

33 122 Coastal Sea Storm Threatened Communities

34 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 Science issues Wave model: selection, integration Coastal classification Permafrost Sea ice

35 field entry options primary_contact_person regional_sea onshore (direction landward from the sea) provide name and Chukchi Sea=CS, East Siberian Sea=ESS, Laptev Sea=LS, Kara Sea=KS, Barents Sea=BS, Greenland Sea/Canadian Archipelago=GSCA, Beaufort Sea=BS onshore_form delta=d, lowland(<10m)=l, upland(10-500m)=u, highland(>500m)=h, wetland=w backshore (upper part of the active beach above the normal reach of the tides t (high water), but affected by large waves occurring during a high water) backshore_form cliff=c, slope=s, flat=f, ridged/terraced=r, anthropogenic=a, complicated=x backshore_elevation in meters backshore_material_1 lithified=l, unlithified=u backshore_material_2 mud-dominated=m, dominated=m, sand-dominated=s, dominated=s, gravel-dominated=g, diamict=d, organic=o, mixtures= e.g mg, sg backshore_comment text to be added if backshore_form=r or backshore_form=x shore (strip of ground bordering the sea which is alternately exposed,, or covered by tides and/or waves) shore_form beach_form shore_material_1 shore_material_2 shore_comment offshore depth_closure** distance_2m_isobath isobath distance_5m_isobath isobath distance_10m_isobath isobath distance_100m_isobath isobath offshore_material beach=b, shore terrace*=t, cliff=c, complicated=x fringing=f, barrier=b, spit=s (to be filled if shore_form=b) lithified=l, unlithified=u mud-dominated=m, dominated=m, sand-dominated=s, dominated=s, gravel-dominated=g, diamict=d, organic=o, mixtures= e.g mg, sg text to be added if shore_form = x in meters (if available) in meters (if available) in meters (if available) in meters (if available) in meters (if available) mud-dominated=m, dominated=m, sand-dominated=s, dominated=s, gravel-dominated=g, diamict=d, organic=o, mixtures= e.g mg, sg ACD Coastal Classification

36 (C) Coastal Data Shoreline Segments (Polygons) (ACD data) V. Rachold -Arctic Coastal Dynamcis (ACD) Alaskan Coastal Climatologies Wind and Wave Hindcast Workshop 2-3 August 2005, Anchorage

37 (C) Coastal Data Backshore Elevation (m) (ACD data) V. Rachold -Arctic Coastal Dynamcis (ACD) Alaskan Coastal Climatologies Wind and Wave Hindcast Workshop 2-3 August 2005, Anchorage

38 (C) Coastal Data Coastal Change Rate (m) (ACD data) V. Rachold -Arctic Coastal Dynamcis (ACD) Alaskan Coastal Climatologies Wind and Wave Hindcast Workshop 2-3 August 2005, Anchorage

39 V. Rachold -Arctic Coastal Dynamcis (ACD) Alaskan Coastal Climatologies Wind and Wave Hindcast Workshop 2-3 August 2005, Anchorage

40 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 Discovered opportunities Interim Low hanging fruit Links to HI data management expertise

41 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 Stakeholders Short-term reactive Days - flood, critical systems Mid-term proactive weeks-months - lay in suppies Long term planning years - line on a map Projection (IPCC) decades - community tenable?

42 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 Upshot: > Sense of momentum, agency commitment > Solid links w Pacific region identified - broader application of coastal dynamics framework export and import - John Marra, partner with Pacific data management and potential PRIDE product team - Draw guidance from established PRiMO risk management template (e.g. cultural context/sensitivity, exporting templates) - Plugged into IOOS network - improvement of Pacific obs network (IPRC) will assist AK storm warning > Objectives, results at various time frames identified - Student opportunities > Tangible products emerging > Getting IPRC s sister organization, IARC, on board

43 Alaska wind/wave climatology workshop Anchorage, Alaska, August 2-3, 2005 > Forward FY06 define stakeholder needs, model selection, data analysis for hindcast work, implementation site prioritizing > Develop data management proposal with PSC/IPRC > FY07 and beyond based on hindcast work develop a demonstration operational product implement in the IPY continue filling out products, sites, transfer coastal system to HI, Guam, AF territories

44 This project: Longer time frame

45 Beyond FY06 FY Test results of the hind-cast modeling for potential use in near shore wind/wave modeling and forecasting. Design/conduct demonstration project for selected study region (s). Deliver prototype data and user tailored applications/information. Identify other decision support products and services. Complete development and produce AK coastal wind/wave climatologies & maps to include sea level, near shore sea ice, and permafrost conditions. Provide user web-based access to AK climatologies and associated maps. FY 09 and Beyond Expand routine operational processes for use in future AK Coastal Climatologies. Monitor current conditions and improve predictions and projections for use by policy makers and developing mitigation plans.