Recent climatic trends over the Mediterranean and future projections. Pinhas Alpert

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1 GLOWA Jordan River Recent climatic trends over the Mediterranean and future projections Pinhas Alpert Dept. Geophysics and Planetary Sciences,Tel-Aviv University, Israel With: S.O. Krichak, I. Osetinsky, M. Dayan, L. Sever, H. Saaroni, B. Ziv, H. Shafir. K. Bassat, P. Kishcha, T. Ben-Gai Financed by: German Federal Ministry of Education and Research In cooperation with: Israeli Ministry of Science and Technology

2 Principal Objectives for GLOWA JR I To determine the vulnerability of water resources in Israel in response to climate change To develop sustainable management practices in the watershed of the Jordan River See Poster by J. Daniels next to Registration

3 Climatic Trends Outline (Observations vs. Projections) 1. Temperatures 2. Rainfall 3. Extreme Temperature 4. Extreme Rainfall 5. Synoptic systems 6. Open questions

4 Climatic Trends 1. Temperatures a. Observed trends b. Predicted trends

Trend summer (JJA) temperature ( C/100y)- NNRP reanalysis arming trend of.5 4 C/100y, mostly over W Med & Egypt, 3-4 times that f the global trend See Poster: Saaroni et al. H. Saaroni, B.

5 Trend summer (JJA) temperature ( C/100y)- NNRP reanalysis arming trend of.5 4 C/100y, mostly over W Med & Egypt, 3-4 times that f the global trend See Poster: Saaroni et al. H. Saaroni, B. Ziv, J. Edelson, and P. Alpert, 2003, Long-term variations in summer temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 18, 1946, 2003 (DOI: /2003GLO17742)

6 Summer (JJA) Maximum Temperatures compared to Regional Climate Modelling (ICTP & TAU)

7 IS92 a IS92 a The SRES marker emission scenarios and the resulting change in concentration IS92 a IS92 a emissions concentrations

8 Summer (JJA) Maximum Temperatures- Differences

9 Raisinen (Personal Communication)

10 Some Paradoxes in Israel Climatic Trends The Temperature Paradox in Israel Summer Temperatures Increase Winter Temperatures Decrease Total trend: None

11 Surface Temp. Trends in Israel ( ) Summer Winter Ben-Gai, Bitan,Manes, Alpert, 1998: TAC

12 Winter Temperatures in Israel & NAO a. Winter Tmax & NAO b. Winter Tmin & NAO Ben-Gai, Bitan, Manes, Alpert, Kushnir, BLM,2001

13 NAO Winter NAO

14 Distribution of the shape of the curve trends of the 850 hpa temperatures (See Poster) Like Global Trend Ziv, H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert, The indications for aggravation in summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean Basin. Geophysical Research Letters (in press)

15 Climatic Trends 2. Rainfall a. Observed trends b. Predicted trends

Rainfall Trends (1958-1998) 1998) Alpert, P., 2004: The water crisis in the E.

16 Rainfall Trends ( ) 1998) Alpert, P., 2004: The water crisis in the E. Med and relation to Global Warming?, in Water in the Mid-east and N. Africa (Ed. Zereini & Jaeschke),Springer, p

18 Raisinen (Personal Communication)

19 Italy Rain N. Italy Central Italy S. Italy 20% reduction

20 Steinberger & Gazit Yaari, J. Climate, 1996 Sharp gradient in Trends over Israel

Precipitation mm / a 600 500 400 300 200 100 Um Qeis Irbid Ramtha Salameh 0 40s

21 Precipitation mm / a Um Qeis Irbid Ramtha Salameh 0 40s 50s 60s 70s 80s GCM prediction: further aridification and increasing variability

22 Winter (DJF) Rainfall Differences

23 Some Paradoxes in Israel Climatic Trends The Rainfall Paradox in Israel North Israel- Decreasing trends South Israel- Increasing trends Why increase in the south? (In 2003/4 just the opposite; change of trends since 90s?) Possible answers: Land-use change Tele-connections, Synoptic changes All the above; factor separation?

24 Red-Sea Trough

Red-Sea Trough Days per Year (1948-2000) Drought period Alpert, P.

25 Red-Sea Trough Days per Year ( ) Drought period Alpert, P. et al, 2004: Semi-objective classification for daily synoptic systems, Application to the E. Mediterranean climate change, Intern. J. of Climato. Vol 24 (in press)

26 Alpert, P. et al, 2004: Semi-objective classification for daily synoptic systems, Application to the E. Mediterranean climate change, Intern. J. of Climato. Vol 24 (in press) Cyprus Low days per year ( )

27 Ben-Gai et al (1998) Reconstructed Albedo

29 Climatic Trends 3. Extreme Temperatures a. Observed trends b. Predicted trends

30 Distribution of 850 mb daily summer temperatures Shift in the mode Increase in extreme events Saaroni, Ziv, Alpert, 2003: Long-term Variations in Summer Temperatures, over the Eastern Mediterranean (GRL, Vol 30, p. 1946) 850 hpa (32.5ºN, 35ºE)

31 Histogram forduration (d) of hot/cool spells (850 mb NNRP reanalysis) 35 No. of spells Cold Hot Length (No. of days) Cold Hot No Length (No. of days) Ziv, H. Saaroni, A. Baharad, D. Yekutieli and P. Alpert,2005, The indications for aggravation in summer heat conditions over the Mediterranean Basin. GRL (in press)

32 Effects of extreme temperatures Fruit loss (fall-out) particularly in Citrus Longer periods of hot spells cause 1. increase in water consumption 2. damage to young fruit Thanks to Jiftah Ben-Asher

33 Tmax, summer, Har-Knaan 50 Downscaling Daily Temperatures ( ) Tmax (C) percent (%) Following Deque observed control B2 A2

34 Tmax, Har-Knaan, corrected Tmax (C) percent (%) observed control B2 A2

35 Har-Knaan, TMAX, distribution Percent (%) TMAX (C) observed control control corrected B2 B2 corrected A2 A2 corrected

36 Har-Knaan, TMAX, distribution Percent (%) TMAX (C) observed control corrected B2 corrected A2 corrected

37 Climatic Trends 4. Extreme Rainfall a. Observed trends b. Predicted trends

38 Alpert et al, GRL,2002 Spain- Trend in daily Rainfall Categories (~400 raingauges) Trend Natural separation of categories

39 Israel- Trend in Rainfall Categories (~ 40 raingauges) Alpert et al, GRL,2002 Heavy categories (C1,C2) UP Light categories (A,B) DOWN

40 1000 precipitation, Har-Knaan, log Downscaling Daily Rainfall ( ) precipitation (mm/d) percent (%) observed control B2 A2

41 precipitation, Har-Knaan, corrected, log, centiles 1000 precipitation (mm/d) percent (%) observed control B2 A2

42 precipitation, Har-Knaan, corrected, zoom, centiles precipitation (mm/d) percent (%) observed control B2 A2

43 precipitation, Har-Knaan, corrected, zoom2, centiles precipitation (mm/d) percent (%) observed control B2 A2

44 Some Paradoxes in Israel Climatic Trends The Extreme Rainfall Paradox in the Mediterranean Total Rain decreases Extreme rainfall increases Answer: Change of rainfall distribution

45 Change in Temp. Distributions under Global Warming (3 Options) IPCC, 2001

46 The 4th option Decrease in mean & increase in variance Is this paradoxical behavior really occurring in the Mediterranean? Yes, P. Alpert, T. Ben-Gai, A. Baharad, Y. Benjamini, D. Yekutieli, M. Colacino, L. Diodato, C. Ramis, V. Homar, R. Romero, S. Michaelides and A. Manes, The paradoxical increase of Mediterranean extreme daily rainfall in spite of of decrease in total values Geophys. Res. Lett., 29, 11, , (June issue), 2002.

47 Trends (%) in total versus Heavy Precipitation

48 Ben-Gai et al, TAC, 1999

50 Climatic Trends 5. Synoptic systems a. Observed trends b. Predicted trends

51 ECHAM- Winter lows ECHAM-Persian Trough Observed CO 2 and other GHG B2 dynamics of technological change continue along the historical trends

52 ECHAM-Black & Red HadCM3- Green & Blue ECHAM4 HadCM3- Observed CO 2 and other GHG B2 dynamics of technological change continue along the historical trends

53 GLOWA Jordan River Do global models see the recent synoptic trends?

54 ECHAM vs. NCEP reanalysis ( ) Annual frequencies of Synoptic Systems The good news

55 Red-Sea Trough days per year ( ) ECHAM NCEP reanalysis The Bad news

56 Cyprus Low days per year ( ) ECHAM NCEP reanalysis The Bad news

57 GLOWA Jordan River Some unanswered questions?

58 GLOWA Jordan River Question No. 1: Are seasons changing In the E. Mediterranean? Alpert,P., Osetinsky, I.,Ziv, B. and Shafir, H., 2004: "A New Definition to the Seasons Based on Synoptic Systems and Example for Israel", Intern. J. Climatology, (in press)

59 Synoptic systems frequencies averaged over Months

60 Definitions of the Seasons high season synoptic temperature meteorological astronomical JUNE JULY- - -AUGUST- --SEPTEMBER summer

61 Definitions of the Seasons synoptic high season temperature meteorological astronomical DECEMBER-- -JANUARY-- FEBRUARY- ---MARCH----- winter

62 GLOWA Jordan River Question No. 2: How large are the errors in the global climate models caused by ignoring landuse changes?

63 Regions of major LUC over 40 years ( ), HYDE database cultivation desertification deforestation

64 Cultivation- N. Australia 1. agriculture 2. pasture 5 18 north Natural vegetation classification south

65 Cultivation- Saudi Arabia

66 GLOWA Jordan River Question No. 3: Do we really know the rainfall distribution over the E. Mediterranean? For instance, where is the maximum?

67 E. Mediterranean Rainfall- 5 winters TRMM satellite vs. NNRP15 reanalysis 1998/9 1999/ /01 TRMM NNRP

68 E. Mediterranean Rainfall TRMM satellite vs. NNRP15 reanalysis 2001/2 2002/3 Total5 winters TRMM NNRP

69 E. Mediterranean Rainfall 2003/4(Dec-Feb) TRMM VS. Mesoscale model TRMM MM5- fine 20 km MM5-coarse 60 km

71 SUMMARY Large-scale IPCC predictions over the Mediterranean suggest: 3-35% rainfall reductions; 3-5 Deg warming by Nearly all the Mediterranean shows significant rainfall decreasing trends. In Israel, there are mixed rainfall trends with increases over the south. Rainfall increases over the south are partly due to land-use changes and partly due to synoptic increase of Red-Sea Trough frequency. Winter temperatures in Israel are dropping due to NAO increase and hence due to global warming!

72 Past 420,000 y CO 2 concentration Temperature-anomalies

73 Tropical effects on Mediterranean Weather & Climate Hurricane Olga DUST African Monsoon Indiann Monsoon El-Nino

74 GLOWA Jordan River Thank you!

75 Raisinen (Personal Communication)

76 GLOWA Jordan River Question No. 3: Why increase in the south? This year 2003/4 just the opposite; change of trends since 90s?

77 850 hpa absolute maximum & minimum temperatures for July/August at (32.5ºN, 35ºE) Max/Min Temperatures (K) Max. Temp. Trend = K/10y Min. Temp. Trend = K/10y Years H. Saaroni, B. Ziv, J. Edelson, and P. Alpert, 2003, Long-term variations in summer temperatures over the Eastern Mediterranean, Geophysical Research Letters, 30, 18, 1946, 2003 (DOI: /2003GLO17742)

78 Past 420,000 y CO 2 concentration Temperature-anomalies

Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather

Tropical tele-connections to the Mediterranean climate and weather P. Alpert, C. Price, S. O. Krichak, B. Ziv, H. Saaroni, I. Osetinsky, J. Barkan, P. Kishcha To cite this version: P. Alpert, C. Price,